scholarly journals Predictability of North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and Upper-Ocean Heat Content

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (10) ◽  
pp. 3005-3023 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martha W. Buckley ◽  
Tim DelSole ◽  
M. Susan Lozier ◽  
Laifang Li
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Mixed Layer Depth ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Upper Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Regional Variations

Abstract Understanding the extent to which Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are predictable is important due to the strong climate impacts of Atlantic SST on Atlantic hurricanes and temperature and precipitation over adjacent landmasses. However, models differ substantially on the degree of predictability of Atlantic SST and upper-ocean heat content (UOHC). In this work, a lower bound on predictability time scales for SST and UOHC in the North Atlantic is estimated purely from gridded ocean observations using a measure of the decorrelation time scale based on the local autocorrelation. Decorrelation time scales for both wintertime SST and UOHC are longest in the subpolar gyre, with maximum time scales of about 4–6 years. Wintertime SST and UOHC generally have similar decorrelation time scales, except in regions with very deep mixed layers, such as the Labrador Sea, where time scales for UOHC are much larger. Spatial variations in the wintertime climatological mixed layer depth explain 51%–73% (range for three datasets analyzed) of the regional variations in decorrelation time scales for UOHC and 26%–40% (range for three datasets analyzed) of the regional variations in decorrelation time scales for wintertime SST in the extratropical North Atlantic. These results suggest that to leading order decorrelation time scales for UOHC are determined by the thermal memory of the ocean.

How Well Do Climate Models Reproduce North Atlantic Subtropical Mode Water?

2013 ◽  
Vol 43 (10) ◽  
pp. 2230-2244 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shenfu Dong ◽  
Kathryn A. Kelly
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Formation Rate ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Upper Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Mode Water

Abstract Formation and the subsequent evolution of the subtropical mode water (STMW) involve various dynamic and thermodynamic processes. Proper representation of mode water variability and contributions from various processes in climate models is important in order to predict future climate change under changing forcings. The North Atlantic STMW, often referred to as Eighteen Degree Water (EDW), in three coupled models, both with data assimilation [GFDL coupled data assimilation (GFDL CDA)] and without data assimilation [GFDL Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1), and NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3)], is analyzed to evaluate how well EDW processes are simulated in those models and to examine whether data assimilation alters the model response to forcing. In comparison with estimates from observations, the data-assimilating model gives a better representation of the formation rate, the spatial distribution of EDW, and its thickness, with the largest EDW variability along the Gulf Stream (GS) path. The EDW formation rate in GFDL CM2.1 is very weak because of weak heat loss from the ocean in the model. Unlike the observed dominant southward movement of the EDW, the EDW in GFDL CM2.1 and CCSM3 moves eastward after formation in the excessively wide GS in the models. However, the GFDL CDA does not capture the observed thermal response of the overlying atmosphere to the ocean. Observations show a robust anticorrelation between the upper-ocean heat content and air–sea heat flux, with upper-ocean heat content leading air–sea heat flux by a few months. This anticorrelation is well captured by GFDL CM2.1 and CCSM3 but not by GFDL CDA. Only GFDL CM2.1 captures the observed anticorrelation between the upper-ocean heat content and EDW volume. This suggests that, although data assimilation corrects the readily observed variables, it degrades the model thermodynamic response to forcing.

scholarly journals Intrinsic oceanic decadal variability of upper-ocean heat content

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-42
Author(s):  
Navid C. Constantinou ◽  
Andrew McC. Hogg
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Upper Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Modes Of Variability ◽  
Low Frequency Variability

AbstractAtmosphere and ocean are coupled via air–sea interactions. The atmospheric conditions fuel the ocean circulation and its variability, but the extent to which ocean processes can affect the atmosphere at decadal time scales remains unclear. In particular, such low-frequency variability is difficult to extract from the short observational record, meaning that climate models are the primary tools deployed to resolve this question. Here, we assess how the ocean’s intrinsic variability leads to patterns of upper-ocean heat content that vary at decadal time scales. These patterns have the potential to feed back on the atmosphere and thereby affect climate modes of variability, such as El Niño or the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. We use the output from a global ocean–sea ice circulation model at three different horizontal resolutions, each driven by the same atmospheric reanalysis. To disentangle the variability of the ocean’s direct response to atmospheric forcing from the variability due to intrinsic ocean dynamics, we compare model runs driven with inter-annually varying forcing (1958-2019) and model runs driven with repeat-year forcing. Models with coarse resolution that rely on eddy parameterizations, show (i) significantly reduced variance of the upper-ocean heat content at decadal time scales and (ii) differences in the spatial patterns of low-frequency variability compared with higher resolution simulations. Climate projections are typically done with general circulation models with coarse-resolution ocean components. Therefore, these biases affect our ability to predict decadal climate modes of variability and, in turn, hinder climate projections. Our results suggest that for improving climate projections, the community should move towards coupled climate models with higher oceanic resolution.

scholarly journals Mechanisms of Heat Content and Thermocline Change in the Subtropical and Subpolar North Atlantic

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (24) ◽  
pp. 9803-9815 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard G. Williams ◽  
Vassil Roussenov ◽  
M. Susan Lozier ◽  
Doug Smith
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Subpolar Gyre ◽  
Atmospheric Forcing ◽  
Upper Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning

Abstract In the North Atlantic, there are pronounced gyre-scale changes in ocean heat content on interannual-to-decadal time scales, which are associated with changes in both sea surface temperature and thermocline thickness; the subtropics are often warm with a thick thermocline when the subpolar gyre is cool with a thin thermocline, and vice versa. This climate variability is investigated using a semidiagnostic dynamical analysis of historical temperature and salinity data from 1962 to 2011 together with idealized isopycnic model experiments. On time scales of typically 5 yr, the tendencies in upper-ocean heat content are not simply explained by the area-averaged atmospheric forcing for each gyre but instead dominated by heat convergences associated with the meridional overturning circulation. In the subtropics, the most pronounced warming events are associated with an increased influx of tropical heat driven by stronger trade winds. In the subpolar gyre, the warming and cooling events are associated with changes in western boundary density, where increasing Labrador Sea density leads to an enhanced overturning and an influx of subtropical heat. Thus, upper-ocean heat content anomalies are formed in a different manner in the subtropical and subpolar gyres, with different components of the meridional overturning circulation probably excited by the local imprint of atmospheric forcing.

Interannual Variations in Upper-Ocean Heat Content and Heat Transport Convergence in the Western North Atlantic

2007 ◽  
Vol 37 (11) ◽  
pp. 2682-2697 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shenfu Dong ◽  
Susan L. Hautala ◽  
Kathryn A. Kelly
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Upper Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Surface Heat Fluxes ◽  
Storage Rate ◽  
Geostrophic Advection

Abstract Subsurface temperature data in the western North Atlantic Ocean are analyzed to study the variations in the heat content above a fixed isotherm and contributions from surface heat fluxes and oceanic processes. The study region is chosen based on the data density; its northern boundary shifts with the Gulf Stream position and its southern boundary shifts to contain constant volume. The temperature profiles are objectively mapped to a uniform grid (0.5° latitude and longitude, 10 m in depth, and 3 months in time). The interannual variations in upper-ocean heat content show good agreement with the changes in the sea surface height from the Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/Poseidon altimeter; both indicate positive anomalies in 1994 and 1998–99 and negative anomalies in 1996–97. The interannual variations in surface heat fluxes cannot explain the changes in upper-ocean heat storage rate. On the contrary, a positive anomaly in heat released to the atmosphere corresponds to a positive upper-ocean heat content anomaly. The oceanic heat transport, mainly owing to the geostrophic advection, controls the interannual variations in heat storage rate, which suggests that geostrophic advection plays an important role in the air–sea heat exchange. The 18°C isotherm depth and layer thickness also show good correspondence to the upper-ocean heat content; a deep and thin 18°C layer corresponds to a positive heat content anomaly. The oceanic transport in each isotherm layer shows an annual cycle, converging heat in winter, and diverging in summer in a warm layer; it also shows interannual variations with the largest heat convergence occurring in even warmer layers during the period of large ocean-to-atmosphere flux.

Exploratory Analysis of Upper-Ocean Heat Content and Sea Surface Temperature Underlying Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in the Western North Pacific

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 1031-1050 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheng-Hsiang Chih ◽  
Chun-Chieh Wu
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Upper Ocean Heat Content

AbstractThe statistical relationships between tropical cyclones (TCs) with rapid intensification (RI) and upper-ocean heat content (UOHC) and sea surface temperature (SST) from 1998 to 2016 in the western North Pacific are examined. RI is computed based on four best track datasets in the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS). The statistical analysis shows that the UOHC and SST are higher in the RI duration than in non-RI duration. However, TCs with high UOHC/SST do not necessarily experience RI. In addition, the UOHC and SST are lower in the storm inner-core region due to storm-induced ocean cooling, and the UOHC reduces more significantly than the SST along the passages of TCs in the lower-latitude regions. Moreover, most of the RI (non-RI) duration is associated with the higher (lower) UOHC, but this is not the case for the SST pattern. Meanwhile, the TC intensification rate during the RI period does not appear to be sensitive to the SST, but shows statistically significant differences in the UOHC. In addition, there is a statistically significant increasing trend in the UOHC underlying TCs from 1998 to 2016. It is also noted that the percentages of the TCs with RI show different polynomial and linear trends based on different calculations of the RI events and RI durations. Finally, it is shown that there is no statistically significant difference in the UOHC, SST, and the percentage of RI among the five categories of ENSO events (i.e., strong El Niño, weak El Niño, neutral, weak La Niña, and strong La Niña).

scholarly journals The Influence of the AMOC Variability on the Atmosphere in CCSM3

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (24) ◽  
pp. 9774-9790 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claude Frankignoul ◽  
Guillaume Gastineau ◽  
Young-Oh Kwon
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Gulf Stream ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Oscillatory Regime ◽  
North Atlantic Current ◽  
Upper Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Sst Anomalies ◽  
Atlantic Current

Abstract The influence of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability on the atmospheric circulation is investigated in a control simulation of the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), where the AMOC evolves from an oscillatory regime into a red noise regime. In the latter, an AMOC intensification is followed during winter by a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The atmospheric response is robust and controlled by AMOC-driven SST anomalies, which shift the heat release to the atmosphere northward near the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current. This alters the low-level atmospheric baroclinicity and shifts the maximum eddy growth northward, affecting the storm track and favoring a positive NAO. The AMOC influence is detected in the relation between seasonal upper-ocean heat content or SST anomalies and winter sea level pressure. In the oscillatory regime, no direct AMOC influence is detected in winter. However, an upper-ocean heat content anomaly resembling the AMOC footprint precedes a negative NAO. This opposite NAO polarity seems due to the southward shift of the Gulf Stream during AMOC intensification, displacing the maximum baroclinicity southward near the jet exit. As the mode has somewhat different patterns when using SST, the wintertime impact of the AMOC lacks robustness in this regime. However, none of the signals compares well with the observed influence of North Atlantic SST anomalies on the NAO because SST is dominated in CCSM3 by the meridional shifts of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current that covary with the AMOC. Hence, although there is some potential climate predictability in CCSM3, it is not realistic.

scholarly journals Insights into Decadal North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and Ocean Heat Content Variability from an Eddy-Permitting Coupled Climate Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (18) ◽  
pp. 6137-6161 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. I. Moat ◽  
B. Sinha ◽  
S. A. Josey ◽  
J. Robson ◽  
P. Ortega ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Mixed Layer ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Sea Surface

Abstract An ocean mixed layer heat budget methodology is used to investigate the physical processes determining subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat content (OHC) variability on decadal to multidecadal time scales using the state-of-the-art climate model HadGEM3-GC2. New elements include development of an equation for evolution of anomalous SST for interannual and longer time scales in a form analogous to that for OHC, parameterization of the diffusive heat flux at the base of the mixed layer, and analysis of a composite Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) event. Contributions to OHC and SST variability from two sources are evaluated: 1) net ocean–atmosphere heat flux and 2) all other processes, including advection, diffusion, and entrainment for SST. Anomalies in OHC tendency propagate anticlockwise around the SPNA on multidecadal time scales with a clear relationship to the phase of the AMOC. AMOC anomalies lead SST tendencies, which in turn lead OHC tendencies in both the eastern and western SPNA. OHC and SST variations in the SPNA on decadal time scales are dominated by AMOC variability because it controls variability of advection, which is shown to be the dominant term in the OHC budget. Lags between OHC and SST are traced to differences between the advection term for OHC and the advection–entrainment term for SST. The new results have implications for interpretation of variations in Atlantic heat uptake in the CMIP6 climate model assessment.

Decadal North Pacific Bred Vectors in a Coupled GCM

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (23) ◽  
pp. 5744-5764 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yury Vikhliaev ◽  
Ben Kirtman ◽  
Paul Schopf
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Ocean Basin ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Upper Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Coupled Gcm ◽  
Bred Vectors

Abstract A number of recent studies done with simple numerical models suggest that the decadal variability in the extratropical North Pacific Ocean is a result of the excitation of low-frequency ocean basin modes. To test this assumption, low-frequency North Pacific variability was examined using a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model (CGCM). Earlier studies had shown that slowly varying dynamical modes in a CGCM can be effectively isolated using the breeding technique. In this study, the breeding method was applied to the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) anomaly coupled GCM (ACGCM), and it was found that several types of slow modes can be isolated depending on the parameters of the breeding cycle. Tropical bred vector SST and upper-ocean heat content are dominated by the ENSO, which is consistent with the results obtained earlier using other CGCMs. Extratropical bred vector upper-ocean heat content is dominated by oceanic instability localized east of Japan, varying on seasonal-to-interannual time scales, and decadal modes with the large-scale pattern over the central and eastern extratropical North Pacific. Similar to ocean basin modes, the decadal modes have a signature of westward-propagating long baroclinic Rossby waves, but do not exhibit the global imprint typical for global basin modes. The relationship between the decadal bred vectors and the background anomalies is consistent with linear damped dynamics. Presumably, the growth of the decadal bred vectors is due to the atmospheric stochastic forcing, but the existence of extratropical instability on decadal time scales still needs to be verified.

scholarly journals Anomalous Oceanic Conditions in the Central and Eastern North Pacific Ocean during the 2014 Hurricane Season and Relationships to Three Major Hurricanes

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 288
Author(s):  
Victoria L. Ford ◽  
Nan D. Walker ◽  
Iam-Fei Pun
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Upper Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Hurricane Season ◽  
Along Track

The 2014 Northeast Pacific hurricane season was highly active, with above-average intensity and frequency events, and a rare landfalling Hawaiian hurricane. We show that the anomalous northern extent of sea surface temperatures and anomalous vertical extent of upper ocean heat content above 26 °C throughout the Northeast and Central Pacific Ocean may have influenced three long-lived tropical cyclones in July and August. Using a variety of satellite-observed and -derived products, we assess genesis conditions, along-track intensity, and basin-wide anomalous upper ocean heat content during Hurricanes Genevieve, Iselle, and Julio. The anomalously northern surface position of the 26 °C isotherm beyond 30° N to the north and east of the Hawaiian Islands in 2014 created very high sea surface temperatures throughout much of the Central Pacific. Analysis of basin-wide mean conditions confirm higher-than-average storm activity during strong positive oceanic thermal anomalies. Positive anomalies of 15–50 kJ cm−2 in the along-track upper ocean heat content for these three storms were observed during the intensification phase prior to peak intensity, advocating for greater understanding of the ocean thermal profile during tropical cyclone genesis and development.

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