How Important Is Air–Sea Coupling in ENSO and MJO Evolution?

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (11) ◽  
pp. 2958-2977 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Newman ◽  
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh ◽  
Cécile Penland
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Evolution Operator ◽  
Power Spectra ◽  
Dynamical Evolution ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Basic Premise ◽  
Strongly Coupled ◽  
Dominant Period ◽  
Linear Inverse Model ◽  
Daily Time

Abstract The effect of air–sea coupling on tropical climate variability is investigated in a coupled linear inverse model (LIM) derived from the simultaneous and 6-day lag covariances of observed 7-day running mean departures from the annual cycle. The model predicts the covariances at all other lags. The predicted and observed lag covariances, as well as the associated power spectra, are generally found to agree within sampling uncertainty. This validates the LIM’s basic premise that beyond daily time scales, the evolution of tropical atmospheric and oceanic anomalies is effectively linear and stochastically driven. It also justifies a linear diagnosis of air–sea coupling in the system. The results show that air–sea coupling has a very small effect on subseasonal atmospheric variability. It has much larger effects on longer-term variability, in both the atmosphere and the ocean, including greatly increasing the amplitude of ENSO and lengthening its dominant period from 2 to 4 years. Consistent with these results, the eigenvectors of the system’s dynamical evolution operator also separate into two distinct, but nonorthogonal, subspaces: one governing the nearly uncoupled subseasonal dynamics and the other governing the strongly coupled longer-term dynamics. These subspaces arise naturally from the LIM analysis; no bandpass frequency filtering need be applied. One implication of this remarkably clean separation of the uncoupled and coupled dynamics is that GCM errors in anomalous tropical air–sea coupling may cause substantial errors on interannual and longer time scales but probably not on the subseasonal scales associated with the MJO.

Projected changes in extreme precipitation at sub-daily and daily time scales

2019 ◽  
Vol 182 ◽  
pp. 103004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Morrison ◽  
Gabriele Villarini ◽  
Wei Zhang ◽  
Enrico Scoccimarro
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Daily Time

scholarly journals Sub-daily runoff simulations with parameters inferred at the daily time scale

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 7437-7467 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. E. Reynolds ◽  
S. Halldin ◽  
C. Y. Xu ◽  
J. Seibert ◽  
A. Kauffeldt
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Numerical Method ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Euler Method ◽  
Time Stepping ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
Daily Time

Abstract. Concentration times in small and medium-sized watersheds (~ 100–1000 km2) are commonly less than 24 h. Flood-forecasting models then require data at sub-daily time scales, but time-series of input and runoff data with sufficient lengths are often only available at the daily time scale, especially in developing countries. This has led to a search for time-scale relationships to infer parameter values at the time scales where they are needed from the time scales where they are available. In this study, time-scale dependencies in the HBV-light conceptual hydrological model were assessed within the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach. It was hypothesised that the existence of such dependencies is a result of the numerical method or time-stepping scheme used in the models rather than a real time-scale-data dependence. Parameter values inferred showed a clear dependence on time scale when the explicit Euler method was used for modelling at the same time steps as the time scale of the input data (1–24 h). However, the dependence almost fully disappeared when the explicit Euler method was used for modelling in 1 h time steps internally irrespectively of the time scale of the input data. In other words, it was found that when an adequate time-stepping scheme was implemented, parameter sets inferred at one time scale (e.g., daily) could be used directly for runoff simulations at other time scales (e.g., 3 or 6 h) without any time scaling and this approach only resulted in a small (if any) model performance decrease, in terms of Nash–Sutcliffe and volume-error efficiencies. The overall results of this study indicated that as soon as sub-daily driving data can be secured, flood forecasting in watersheds with sub-daily concentration times is possible with model-parameter values inferred from long time series of daily data, as long as an appropriate numerical method is used.

Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model: From synoptic to decadal time-scales

2008 ◽  
Vol 134 (634) ◽  
pp. 1337-1351 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Bechtold ◽  
Martin Köhler ◽  
Thomas Jung ◽  
Francisco Doblas-Reyes ◽  
Martin Leutbecher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Ecmwf Model

scholarly journals Comparison of Global Precipitation Estimates across a Range of Temporal and Spatial Scales

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (21) ◽  
pp. 7773-7795 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Gehne ◽  
Thomas M. Hamill ◽  
George N. Kiladis ◽  
Kevin E. Trenberth
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Random Errors ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Global Precipitation ◽  
Daily Time

Abstract Characteristics of precipitation estimates for rate and amount from three global high-resolution precipitation products (HRPPs), four global climate data records (CDRs), and four reanalyses are compared. All datasets considered have at least daily temporal resolution. Estimates of global precipitation differ widely from one product to the next, with some differences likely due to differing goals in producing the estimates. HRPPs are intended to produce the best snapshot of the precipitation estimate locally. CDRs of precipitation emphasize homogeneity over instantaneous accuracy. Precipitation estimates from global reanalyses are dynamically consistent with the large-scale circulation but tend to compare poorly to rain gauge estimates since they are forecast by the reanalysis system and precipitation is not assimilated. Regional differences among the estimates in the means and variances are as large as the means and variances, respectively. Even with similar monthly totals, precipitation rates vary significantly among the estimates. Temporal correlations among datasets are large at annual and daily time scales, suggesting that compensating bias errors at annual and random errors at daily time scales dominate the differences. However, the signal-to-noise ratio at intermediate (monthly) time scales can be large enough to result in high correlations overall. It is shown that differences on annual time scales and continental regions are around 0.8 mm day−1, which corresponds to 23 W m−2. These wide variations in the estimates, even for global averages, highlight the need for better constrained precipitation products in the future.

scholarly journals Tropical and Extratropical Controls of Gulf of California Surges and Summertime Precipitation over the Southwestern United States

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (7) ◽  
pp. 2695-2718 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salvatore Pascale ◽  
Simona Bordoni
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Gulf Of California ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
North American Monsoon ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The North ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract In this study ERA-Interim data are used to study the influence of Gulf of California (GoC) moisture surges on the North American monsoon (NAM) precipitation over Arizona and western New Mexico (AZWNM), as well as the connection with larger-scale tropical and extratropical variability. To identify GoC surges, an improved index based on principal component analyses of the near-surface GoC winds is introduced. It is found that GoC surges explain up to 70% of the summertime rainfall over AZWNM. The number of surges that lead to enhanced rainfall in this region varies from 4 to 18 per year and is positively correlated with annual summertime precipitation. Regression analyses are performed to explore the relationship between GoC surges, AZWNM precipitation, and tropical and extratropical atmospheric variability at the synoptic (2–8 days), quasi-biweekly (10–20 days), and subseasonal (25–90 days) time scales. It is found that tropical and extratropical waves, responsible for intrusions of moist tropical air into midlatitudes, interact on all three time scales, with direct impacts on the development of GoC surges and positive precipitation anomalies over AZWNM. Strong precipitation events in this region are, however, found to be associated with time scales longer than synoptic, with the quasi-biweekly and subseasonal modes playing a dominant role in the occurrence of these more extreme events.

scholarly journals The contribution of coral reef-derived dimethyl sulfide to aerosol burden over the Great Barrier Reef: a modelling study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonya Fiddes ◽  
Matthew Woodhouse ◽  
Steve Utembe ◽  
Robyn Schofield ◽  
Joel Alroe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coral Reef ◽  
Great Barrier Reef ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Dimethyl Sulfide ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Cloud Formation ◽  
Barrier Reef ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Daily Time

Abstract. Coral reefs have been found to produce the sulfur compound dimethyl sulfide (DMS), a climatically relevant aerosol precursor predominantly associated with phytoplankton. Until recently, the role of coral reef-derived DMS within the climate system had not been quantified. A study preceding the present work found that DMS produced by corals had negligible long-term climatic forcing at the global-regional scale. However, at sub-daily time scales more typically associated with aerosol and cloud formation, the influence of coral reef-derived DMS on local aerosol radiative effects remains unquantified. The Weather Research and Forecasting – chemistry model (WRF-Chem) has been used in this work to study the role of coral reef-derived DMS at sub-daily time scales for the first time. WRF-Chem was run to coincide with an October 2016 field campaign over the Great Barrier Reef, Queensland, Australia, against which the model was evaluated. After updating the DMS surface water climatology, the model reproduced DMS and sulfur concentrations well. The inclusion of coral reef-derived DMS resulted in no significant change in sulfate aerosol mass or total aerosol number. Subsequently, no direct or indirect aerosol effects were detected. The results suggest that the co-location of the Great Barrier Reef with significant anthropogenic aerosol sources along the Queensland coast prevents coral reef derived-aerosol from having a modulating influence on local aerosol burdens in the current climate.

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