scholarly journals Tropical and Extratropical Controls of Gulf of California Surges and Summertime Precipitation over the Southwestern United States

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (7) ◽  
pp. 2695-2718 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salvatore Pascale ◽  
Simona Bordoni
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Gulf Of California ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
North American Monsoon ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The North ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract In this study ERA-Interim data are used to study the influence of Gulf of California (GoC) moisture surges on the North American monsoon (NAM) precipitation over Arizona and western New Mexico (AZWNM), as well as the connection with larger-scale tropical and extratropical variability. To identify GoC surges, an improved index based on principal component analyses of the near-surface GoC winds is introduced. It is found that GoC surges explain up to 70% of the summertime rainfall over AZWNM. The number of surges that lead to enhanced rainfall in this region varies from 4 to 18 per year and is positively correlated with annual summertime precipitation. Regression analyses are performed to explore the relationship between GoC surges, AZWNM precipitation, and tropical and extratropical atmospheric variability at the synoptic (2–8 days), quasi-biweekly (10–20 days), and subseasonal (25–90 days) time scales. It is found that tropical and extratropical waves, responsible for intrusions of moist tropical air into midlatitudes, interact on all three time scales, with direct impacts on the development of GoC surges and positive precipitation anomalies over AZWNM. Strong precipitation events in this region are, however, found to be associated with time scales longer than synoptic, with the quasi-biweekly and subseasonal modes playing a dominant role in the occurrence of these more extreme events.

scholarly journals Principal Component Analysis of the Summertime Winds over the Gulf of California: A Gulf Surge Index

2006 ◽  
Vol 134 (11) ◽  
pp. 3395-3414 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simona Bordoni ◽  
Bjorn Stevens
Keyword(s):  
Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Gulf Of California ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Component Analysis ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The North ◽  
Gulf Surges

Abstract A principal component analysis of the summertime near-surface Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) winds is used to identify the leading mode of synoptic-scale variability of the low-level flow along the Gulf of California during the North American monsoon season. A gulf surge mode emerges from this analysis as the leading EOF, with the corresponding principal component time series interpretable as an objective index for gulf surge occurrence. This index is used as a reference time series for regression analysis and compositing meteorological fields of interest, to explore the relationship between gulf surges and precipitation over the core and marginal regions of the monsoon, as well as the manifestation of these transient events in the large-scale circulation. It is found that, although seemingly mesoscale features confined over the Gulf of California, gulf surges are intimately linked to patterns of large-scale variability of the eastern Pacific ITCZ and greatly contribute to the definition of the northward extent of the monsoonal rains.

NMME-based Assessment of Prediction Skills of US Summertime Droughts and Pluvials: Role of Near-surface Temperature Prediction Skill

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonghun Kam ◽  
Sungyoon Kim ◽  
Joshua Roundy
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Anomaly Correlation ◽  
The North ◽  
Anomaly Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies

<p>This study used the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) system to understand the role of near surface temperature in the prediction skill for US climate extremes. In this study, the forecasting skill was measured by anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) between the observed and forecasted precipitation (PREC) or 2-meter air temperature (T2m) over the contiguous United States (CONUS) during 1982–2012. The strength of the PREC-T2m coupling was measured by ACC between observed PREC and T2m or forecasted PREC and T2m over the CONUS. This study also assessed the NMME forecasting skill for the summers of 2004 (spatial anomaly correlation between PREC and T2m: 0.05), 2011 (-0.65), and 2012 (-0.60) when the PREC-T2m coupling is weaker or stronger than the 1982–2012 climatology (ACC:-0.34). This study found that most of the NMME models show stronger (negative) PREC-T2m coupling than the observed coupling, indicating that they fail to reproduce interannual variability of the observed PREC-T2m coupling. Some NMME models with skillful prediction for T2m show the skillful prediction of the precipitation anomalies and US droughts in 2011 and 2012 via strong PREC-T2m coupling despite the fact that the forecasting skill is year-dependent and model-dependent. Lastly, we explored how the forecasting skill for SSTs over north Pacific and Atlantic Oceans affects the forecasting skill for T2m and PREC over the US. The findings of this study suggest a need for the selective use of the current NMME seasonal forecasts for US droughts and pluvials.</p>

scholarly journals A Numerical Investigation of Wet and Dry Onset Modes in the North American Monsoon Core Region. Part I: A Regional Mechanism for Interannual Variability

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (11) ◽  
pp. 3953-3969 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cuauhtémoc Turrent ◽  
Tereza Cavazos
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
North American ◽  
Gulf Of California ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Core Region ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
North American Monsoon ◽  
The Core ◽  
The North

In this study the results of two regional fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) simulations forced at their boundaries with low-pass-filtered North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) composite fields from which synoptic-scale variability was removed are presented. The filtered NARR data are also assimilated into the inner domain through the use of field nudging. The purpose of this research is to investigate wet and dry onset modes in the core region of the North American monsoon (NAM). Key features of the NAM that are present in the NARR fields and assimilated into the regional simulations include the position of the midlevel anticyclone, low-level circulation over the Gulf of California, and moisture flux patterns into the core monsoon region, for which the eastern Pacific is the likely primary source of moisture. The model develops a robust diurnal cycle of deep convection over the peaks of the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO) that results solely from its radiation scheme and internal dynamics, in spite of the field nudging. The wet onset mode is related to a regional land–sea thermal contrast (LSTC) that is ~2°C higher than in the dry mode, and is further characterized by a northward-displaced midlevel anticyclone, a stronger surface pressure gradient along the Gulf of California, larger mean moisture fluxes into the core region from the eastern Pacific, a stronger diurnal cycle of deep convection, and the more northward distribution of precipitation along the axis of the SMO. A proposed regional LSTC mechanism for NAM onset interannual variability is consistent with the differences between both onset modes.

CONSANGUINITY BY RANDOM ISONYMY AND SOCIOECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN ARGENTINA: A POPULATION STUDY

2016 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 322-333 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Edgardo Dipierri ◽  
Alvaro Rodríguez-Larralde ◽  
Italo Barrai ◽  
Esperanza Gutiérrez Redomero ◽  
Concepción Alonso-Rodríguez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Economic Indicator ◽  
Demographic Variables ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Socioeconomic Conditions ◽  
Administrative Organization ◽  
The North ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Different Levels

SummaryIn human populations various flexible, labile and interdependent structures (genetic, demographic, socioeconomic) co-exist, each of which can be organized in an hierarchical order corresponding to administrative entities. The relationship between consanguinity, as estimated by random isonymy (FST), and socioeconomic conditions was analysed at different levels of political and administrative organization in Argentina. From the surnames of 22,666,139 voters from the 2001 electoral roll,FSTwas estimated for 510 Argentinian departments. Using a principal component analysis, a Socio-Demographic and Economic Indicator (SDEI), summarizing the effect of 22 socioeconomic and demographic variables at the departmental level, was computed. The relationship between departmentalFSTand SDEI values was analysed for the whole nation and within regions using multiple regression analysis. TheFSTpresented a clinal distribution with the highest values in the north and west of the country, while SDEI expressed the opposite behaviour. A negative and significant correlation was observed betweenFSTand SDEI, accounting for 46% of the variation in consanguinity in Argentina. The strongest correlations ofFSTwith SDEI were observed in the Central, Patagonia and Cuyo regions, i.e. those with the highest values of SDEI and lowest values ofFST.

scholarly journals Modeling Intraseasonal Features of 2004 North American Monsoon Precipitation

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (9) ◽  
pp. 1882-1896 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. Gao ◽  
J. Li ◽  
S. Sorooshian
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
North American ◽  
Gulf Of California ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
North American Monsoon ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Diurnal Variability ◽  
Late Night ◽  
Diagnostic Characteristics

Abstract This study examines the capabilities and limitations of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) in predicting the precipitation and circulation features that accompanied the 2004 North American monsoon (NAM). When the model is reinitialized every 5 days to restrain the growth of modeling errors, its results for precipitation checked at subseasonal time scales (not for individual rainfall events) become comparable with ground- and satellite-based observations as well as with the NAM’s diagnostic characteristics. The modeled monthly precipitation illustrates the evolution patterns of monsoon rainfall, although it underestimates the rainfall amount and coverage area in comparison with observations. The modeled daily precipitation shows the transition from dry to wet episodes on the monsoon onset day over the Arizona–New Mexico region, and the multiday heavy rainfall (>1 mm day−1) and dry periods after the onset. All these modeling predictions agree with observed variations. The model also accurately simulated the onset and ending dates of four major moisture surges over the Gulf of California during the 2004 monsoon season. The model reproduced the strong diurnal variability of the NAM precipitation, but did not predict the observed diurnal feature of the precipitation peak’s shift from the mountains to the coast during local afternoon to late night. In general, the model is able to reproduce the major, critical patterns and dynamic variations of the NAM rainfall at intraseasonal time scales, but still includes errors in precipitation quantity, pattern, and timing. The numerical study suggests that these errors are due largely to deficiencies in the model’s cumulus convective parameterization scheme, which is responsible for the model’s precipitation generation.

scholarly journals Multiscale Variability of the Flow during the North American Monsoon Experiment

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (9) ◽  
pp. 1628-1648 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard H. Johnson ◽  
Paul E. Ciesielski ◽  
Brian D. McNoldy ◽  
Peter J. Rogers ◽  
Richard K. Taft
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North American ◽  
Gulf Of California ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
North American Monsoon ◽  
Return Flow ◽  
Southwestern United States ◽  
The North ◽  
Upper Level

Abstract The 2004 North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) provided an unprecedented observing network for studying the structure and evolution of the North American monsoon. This paper focuses on multiscale characteristics of the flow during NAME from the large scale to the mesoscale using atmospheric sounding data from the enhanced observing network. The onset of the 2004 summer monsoon over the NAME region accompanied the typical northward shift of the upper-level anticyclone or monsoon high over northern Mexico into the southwestern United States, but in 2004 this shift occurred slightly later than normal and the monsoon high did not extend as far north as usual. Consequently, precipitation over the southwestern United States was slightly below normal, although increased troughiness over the Great Plains contributed to increased rainfall over eastern New Mexico and western Texas. The first major pulse of moisture into the Southwest occurred around 13 July in association with a strong Gulf of California surge. This surge was linked to the westward passages of Tropical Storm Blas to the south and an upper-level inverted trough over northern Texas. The development of Blas appeared to be favored as an easterly wave moved into the eastern Pacific during the active phase of a Madden–Julian oscillation. On the regional scale, sounding data reveal a prominent sea breeze along the east shore of the Gulf of California, with a deep return flow as a consequence of the elevated Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO) immediately to the east. Subsidence produced a dry layer over the gulf, whereas a deep moist layer existed over the west slopes of the SMO. A prominent nocturnal low-level jet was present on most days over the northern gulf. The diurnal cycle of heating and moistening (Q1 and Q2) over the SMO was characterized by deep convective profiles in the mid- to upper troposphere at 1800 LT, followed by stratiform-like profiles at midnight, consistent with the observed diurnal evolution of precipitation over this coastal mountainous region. The analyses in the core NAME domain are based on a gridded dataset derived from atmospheric soundings only and, therefore, should prove useful in validating reanalyses and regional models.

scholarly journals Comments on “Regional Impacts of Irrigation in Mexico and the Southwestern United States on Hydrometeorological Fields in the North American Monsoon Region”

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 477-481 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theodore J. Bohn ◽  
Enrique R. Vivoni
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Gulf Of California ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Atmospheric Modeling ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
North American Monsoon ◽  
Impact Surface ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact

Abstract For their investigation of the impact of irrigated agriculture on hydrometeorological fields in the North American monsoon (NAM) region, Mahalov et al. used the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to simulate weather over the NAM region in the summer periods of 2000 and 2012, with and without irrigation applied to the regional croplands. Unfortunately, while the authors found that irrigated agriculture may indeed influence summer precipitation, the magnitude, location, and seasonality of their irrigation inputs were substantially inaccurate because of 1) the assumption that pixels classified as “irrigated cropland” are irrigated during the summer and 2) an outdated land cover map that misrepresents known agricultural districts. The combined effects of these errors are 1) an overestimation of irrigated croplands by a factor of 3–10 along the coast of the Gulf of California and by a factor of 1.5 near the Colorado River delta and 2) a large underestimation of irrigation by a factor of 7–10 in Chihuahua, particularly in 2012. Given the sensitivity of the WRF simulations conducted by Mahalov et al. to the presence of irrigated agriculture, it is expected that the identified errors would significantly impact surface moisture and energy fluxes, resulting in noticeably different effects on precipitation. The authors suggest that the analysis of irrigation effects on precipitation using coupled land–atmospheric modeling systems requires careful specification of the spatiotemporal distribution of irrigated croplands.

The separation of Carex disticha and Carex sartwellii and the status of Carex disticha in North America

1988 ◽  
Vol 66 (11) ◽  
pp. 2323-2330 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. M. Catling ◽  
A. A. Reznicek ◽  
B. S. Brookes
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Small Region ◽  
Morphological Characters ◽  
Scatter Diagram ◽  
The North ◽  
The Status ◽  
Beak Length ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Distinguishing Features

To clarify the relationship between the Eurasian Carex disticha and the North American Carex sartwellii, 38 morphological characters were measured in 30 specimens of each. Various qualitative features were also scored. Through analysis of variance (ANOVA), a reduced number of 10 important continuous characters was obtained and the sample of each taxon was increased to 50. ANOVA of these 10 characters revealed that perigynium length and perigynium beak length were the most important discriminating characters, but in a scatter diagram of these two, 15% of the sample occupied a region of overlap. Principal-component analysis and discriminant analysis using the 10 characters resulted in a separation of the two groups, but a small region of overlap existed in both cases. The two taxa are distinct by virtue of accumulation of small morphological and other differences in a number of characters, rather than by sharp differentiation in a few characters. Carex disticha has larger perigynia with beaks (0.8–)1–1.5(–2.3) mm long, whereas C. sartwellii has smaller perigynia with beaks 0.4–1(–1.2) mm long. All distinguishing features are discussed and a key is provided. Immature vouchers for the occurrence of C. disticha in southwestern Quebec are confirmed on the basis of features of the inflorescence. The only other North American station of C. disticha, discovered in Simcoe Co., Ontario, in 1972 and extant in 1986, is also confirmed in the numerical analyses.

scholarly journals CAPE and Convective Events in the Southwest during the North American Monsoon

2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
David K. Adams ◽  
Enio P. Souza
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Atmospheric Stability ◽  
Radiosonde Data ◽  
North American Monsoon ◽  
Convective Regime ◽  
The North ◽  
Moisture Advection ◽  
Strong Surface ◽  
Surface Sensible Heating ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract The relationship between atmospheric stability, measured as CAPE, and deep precipitating convection has been widely studied but is not definitive. In the maritime tropics, CAPE and precipitation are usually inversely correlated. In continental convection (i.e., midlatitude and tropical), no consistent relationship has been found. In this study of the semiarid Southwest, a moderate positive correlation exists, approaching 0.6. Correlations based on radiosonde data are found to be sensitive to the parcel level of origin. The strongest correlations are found by modifying the preconvective morning sounding with the maximum reported surface temperature, assuming well-mixed adiabatic layers to the level of free convection with pseudoadiabatic ascent. These results show that the upper bounds on parcel instability correlate best with precipitation. Furthermore, the CAPE–precipitation relationship is argued to depend on the convective regime being considered. The North American monsoon convective regime requires essentially only moisture advection interacting with the strong surface sensible heating over complex topography. Elimination of strong convective inhibition through intense surface sensible heating in the presence of sufficient water vapor leads to the positive CAPE–precipitation relationship on diurnal time scales. These results are discussed in light of contradictory results from other continental and maritime regions, which demonstrate negative correlations.

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