Analysis of Idealized Tropical Cyclone Simulations Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: Sensitivity to Turbulence Parameterization and Grid Spacing

2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (2) ◽  
pp. 745-765 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin A. Hill ◽  
Gary M. Lackmann
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Maximum Intensity ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Exchange Coefficient ◽  
Model Sensitivity ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Horizontal Grid ◽  
Weather Research

Abstract The Weather Research and Forecasting Advanced Research Model (WRF-ARW) was used to perform idealized tropical cyclone (TC) simulations, with domains of 36-, 12-, and 4-km horizontal grid spacing. Tests were conducted to determine the sensitivity of TC intensity to the available surface layer (SL) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations, including the Yonsei University (YSU) and Mellor–Yamada–Janjic (MYJ) schemes, and to horizontal grid spacing. Simulations were run until a quasi-steady TC intensity was attained. Differences in minimum central pressure (Pmin) of up to 35 hPa and maximum 10-m wind (V10max) differences of up to 30 m s−1 were present between a convection-resolving nested domain with 4-km grid spacing and a parent domain with cumulus parameterization and 36-km grid spacing. Simulations using 4-km grid spacing are the most intense, with the maximum intensity falling close to empirical estimates of maximum TC intensity. Sensitivity to SL and PBL parameterization also exists, most notably in simulations with 4-km grid spacing, where the maximum intensity varied by up to ∼10 m s−1 (V10max) or ∼13 hPa (Pmin). Values of surface latent heat flux (LHFLX) are larger in MYJ than in YSU at the same wind speeds, and the differences increase with wind speed, approaching 1000 W m−2 at wind speeds in excess of 55 m s−1. This difference was traced to a larger exchange coefficient for moisture, CQ, in the MYJ scheme. The exchange coefficients for sensible heat (Cθ) and momentum (CD) varied by <7% between the SL schemes at the same wind speeds. The ratio Cθ/CD varied by <5% between the schemes, whereas CQ/CD was up to 100% larger in MYJ, and the latter is theorized to contribute to the differences in simulated maximum intensity. Differences in PBL scheme mixing also likely played a role in the model sensitivity. Observations of the exchange coefficients, published elsewhere and limited to wind speeds <30 m s−1, suggest that CQ is too large in the MYJ SL scheme, whereas YSU incorporates values more consistent with observations. The exchange coefficient for momentum increases linearly with wind speed in both schemes, whereas observations suggest that the value of CD becomes quasi-steady beyond some critical wind speed (∼30 m s−1).

scholarly journals Evaluating Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Predictions of Turbulent Flow Parameters in a Dry Convective Boundary Layer

2011 ◽  
Vol 50 (12) ◽  
pp. 2429-2444 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy A. Gibbs ◽  
Evgeni Fedorovich ◽  
Alexander M. J. van Eijk
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Convective Boundary Layer ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Convective Boundary ◽  
Parameterization Schemes ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
Horizontal Grid ◽  
Weather Research

AbstractWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model predictions using different boundary layer schemes and horizontal grid spacings were compared with observational and numerical large-eddy simulation data for conditions corresponding to a dry atmospheric convective boundary layer (CBL) over the southern Great Plains (SGP). The first studied case exhibited a dryline passage during the simulation window, and the second studied case was used to examine the CBL in a post-cold-frontal environment. The model runs were conducted with three boundary layer parameterization schemes (Yonsei University, Mellor–Yamada–Janjić, and asymmetrical convective) commonly employed within the WRF model environment to represent effects of small-scale turbulent transport. A study domain was centered over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program SGP site in Lamont, Oklahoma. Results show that near-surface flow and turbulence parameters are predicted reasonably well with all tested horizontal grid spacings (1, 2, and 4 km) and that value added through refining grid spacing was minimal at best for conditions considered in this study. In accord with this result, it was suggested that the 16-fold increase in computing overhead associated with changing from 4- to 1-km grid spacing was not justified. Therefore, only differences among schemes at 4-km spacing were presented in detail. WRF model predictions generally overestimated the contribution to turbulence generation by mechanical forcing over buoyancy forcing in both studied CBL cases. Nonlocal parameterization schemes were found to match observational data more closely than did the local scheme, although differences among the predictions with all three schemes were relatively small.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Simulated Tropical Cyclone Structure and Intensity to Horizontal Resolution

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (3) ◽  
pp. 688-704 ◽  
Author(s):  
Megan S. Gentry ◽  
Gary M. Lackmann
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Domain Size ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Hurricane Ivan ◽  
Horizontal Grid ◽  
Grid Length

Abstract The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to test the sensitivity of simulations of Hurricane Ivan (2004) to changes in horizontal grid spacing for grid lengths from 8 to 1 km. As resolution is increased, minimum central pressure decreases significantly (by 30 hPa from 8- to 1-km grid spacing), although this increase in intensity is not uniform across similar reductions in grid spacing, even when pressure fields are interpolated to a common grid. This implies that the additional strengthening of the simulated tropical cyclone (TC) at higher resolution is not attributable to sampling, but is due to changes in the representation of physical processes important to TC intensity. The most apparent changes in simulated TC structure with resolution occur near a grid length of 4 km. At 4-km grid spacing and below, polygonal eyewall segments appear, suggestive of breaking vortex Rossby waves. With sub-4-km grid lengths, localized, intense updraft cores within the eyewall are numerous and both polygonal and circular eyewall shapes appear regularly. Higher-resolution simulations produce a greater variety of shapes, transitioning more frequently between polygonal and circular eyewalls relative to lower-resolution simulations. It is hypothesized that this is because of the ability to resolve a greater range of wavenumbers in high-resolution simulations. Also, as resolution is increased, a broader range of updraft and downdraft velocities is present in the eyewall. These results suggest that grid spacing of 2 km or less is needed for representation of important physical processes in the TC eyewall. Grid-length and domain size suggestions for operational prediction are provided; for operational prediction, a grid length of 3 km or less is recommended.

scholarly journals Using Simulated Dropsondes to Understand Extreme Updrafts and Wind Speeds in Tropical Cyclones

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (11) ◽  
pp. 3901-3925 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel P. Stern ◽  
George H. Bryan
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Eddy Simulation ◽  
Wind Gusts ◽  
Large Eddy ◽  
Horizontal Grid ◽  
Insight Into

Abstract Extreme updrafts (≥10 m s−1) and wind gusts (≥90 m s−1) are ubiquitous within the low-level eyewall of intense tropical cyclones (TCs). Previous studies suggest that both of these features are associated with coherent subkilometer-scale vortices. Here, over 100 000 “virtual” dropsonde trajectories are examined within a large-eddy simulation (31.25-m horizontal grid spacing) of a category 5 hurricane in order to gain insight into the nature of these features and to better understand and interpret dropsonde observations. At such a high resolution, profiles of wind speed and vertical velocity from the virtual sondes are difficult to distinguish from those of real dropsondes. PDFs of the strength of updrafts and wind gusts compare well between the simulated and observed dropsondes, as do the respective range of heights over which these features are found. Individual simulated updrafts can be tracked for periods of up to several minutes, revealing structures that are both coherent and rapidly evolving. It appears that the updrafts are closely associated with vortices and wind speed maxima, consistent with previous studies. The peak instantaneous wind gusts in the simulations (up to 150 m s−1) are substantially stronger than have ever been observed. Using the virtual sondes, it is demonstrated that the probability of sampling such extremes is vanishingly small, and it is argued that actual intense TCs might also be characterized by gusts of these magnitudes.

scholarly journals Impact of model improvements on 80-m wind speeds during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2)

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Bianco ◽  
Irina V. Djalalova ◽  
James M. Wilczak ◽  
Joseph B. Olson ◽  
Jaymes S. Kenyon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Improvement Project ◽  
Experimental Physics ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Horizontal Grid

Abstract. During the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2; Oct 2015–Mar 2017, Columbia River Gorge and Basin area) several improvements to the parameterizations applied in the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR – 3 km horizontal grid spacing) and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Nest (HRRRNEST – 750 m horizontal grid spacing) Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models were tested during four 6-week reforecast periods (one for each season). For these tests the models were run in control (CNT) and experimental (EXP) configurations, with the EXP configuration including all the improved parameterizations. The impacts of the experimental parameterizations on the forecast of 80-m wind speeds (hub height) from the HRRR and HRRRNEST models are assessed, using observations collected by 19 sodars and 3 profiling lidars for verification. Improvements due to the experimental physics (EXP vs CNT runs) versus those due to finer horizontal grid spacing (HRRRNEST vs HRRR), and the combination of the two are compared, using standard bulk statistics such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Bias Error (bias). On average, the HRRR 80-m wind speed MAE is reduced by 3–4 % due to the experimental physics. The impact of the finer horizontal grid spacing in the CNT runs also shows a positive improvement of 5 % on MAE, which is particularly large at nighttime and during the morning transition. Lastly, the combined impact of the experimental physics and finer horizontal grid spacing produces larger improvements in the 80-m wind speed MAE, up to 7–8 %. The improvements are evaluated as a function of the model's initialization time, forecast horizon, time of the day, season of the year, site elevation, and meteorological phenomena, also looking for the causes of model weaknesses. Finally, bias correction methods are applied to the 80-m wind speed model outputs to measure their impact on the improvements due to the removal of the systematic component of the errors.

scholarly journals Impact of model improvements on 80 m wind speeds during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2)

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 4803-4821 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Bianco ◽  
Irina V. Djalalova ◽  
James M. Wilczak ◽  
Joseph B. Olson ◽  
Jaymes S. Kenyon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Improvement Project ◽  
Experimental Physics ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Horizontal Grid

Abstract. During the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2; October 2015–March 2017, held in the Columbia River Gorge and Basin area of eastern Washington and Oregon states), several improvements to the parameterizations used in the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR – 3 km horizontal grid spacing) and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Nest (HRRRNEST – 750 m horizontal grid spacing) numerical weather prediction (NWP) models were tested during four 6-week reforecast periods (one for each season). For these tests the models were run in control (CNT) and experimental (EXP) configurations, with the EXP configuration including all the improved parameterizations. The impacts of the experimental parameterizations on the forecast of 80 m wind speeds (wind turbine hub height) from the HRRR and HRRRNEST models are assessed, using observations collected by 19 sodars and three profiling lidars for comparison. Improvements due to the experimental physics (EXP vs. CNT runs) and those due to finer horizontal grid spacing (HRRRNEST vs. HRRR) and the combination of the two are compared, using standard bulk statistics such as mean absolute error (MAE) and mean bias error (bias). On average, the HRRR 80 m wind speed MAE is reduced by 3 %–4 % due to the experimental physics. The impact of the finer horizontal grid spacing in the CNT runs also shows a positive improvement of 5 % on MAE, which is particularly large at nighttime and during the morning transition. Lastly, the combined impact of the experimental physics and finer horizontal grid spacing produces larger improvements in the 80 m wind speed MAE, up to 7 %–8 %. The improvements are evaluated as a function of the model's initialization time, forecast horizon, time of the day, season of the year, site elevation, and meteorological phenomena. Causes of model weaknesses are identified. Finally, bias correction methods are applied to the 80 m wind speed model outputs to measure their impact on the improvements due to the removal of the systematic component of the errors.

scholarly journals The Experimental HWRF System: A Study on the Influence of Horizontal Resolution on the Structure and Intensity Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using an Idealized Framework

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (6) ◽  
pp. 1762-1784 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sundararaman G. Gopalakrishnan ◽  
Frank Marks ◽  
Xuejin Zhang ◽  
Jian-Wen Bao ◽  
Kao-San Yeh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Grid Resolution ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Maximum Wind ◽  
Tangential Wind ◽  
Intensity Changes ◽  
Horizontal Grid ◽  
Weather Research

Abstract Forecasting intensity changes in tropical cyclones (TCs) is a complex and challenging multiscale problem. While cloud-resolving numerical models using a horizontal grid resolution of 1–3 km are starting to show some skill in predicting the intensity changes in individual cases, it is not clear at this time what may be a reasonable horizontal resolution for forecasting TC intensity changes on a day-to-day-basis. The Experimental Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting System (HWRFX) was used within an idealized framework to gain a fundamental understanding of the influence of horizontal grid resolution on the dynamics of TC vortex intensification in three dimensions. HWFRX is a version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model specifically adopted and developed jointly at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) for studying the intensity change problem at a model grid resolution of about 3 km. Based on a series of numerical experiments at the current operating resolution of about 9 km and at a finer resolution of about 3 km, it was found that improved resolution had very little impact on the initial spinup of the vortex. An initial axisymmetric vortex with a maximum wind speed of 20 m s−1 rapidly intensified to 50 m s−1 within about 24 h in either case. During the spinup process, buoyancy appears to have had a pivotal influence on the formation of the warm core and the subsequent rapid intensification of the modeled vortex. The high-resolution simulation at 3 km produced updrafts as large as 48 m s−1. However, these extreme events were rare, and this study indicated that these events may not contribute significantly to rapid deepening. Additionally, although the structure of the buoyant plumes may differ at 9- and 3-km resolution, interestingly, the axisymmetric structure of the simulated TCs exhibited major similarities. Specifically, the similarities included a deep inflow layer extending up to about 2 km in height with a tangentially averaged maximum inflow velocity of about 12–15 m s−1, vertical updrafts with an average velocity of about 2 m s−1, and a very strong outflow produced at both resolutions for a mature storm. It was also found in either case that the spinup of the primary circulation occurred not only due to the weak inflow above the boundary layer but also due to the convergence of vorticity within the boundary layer. Nevertheless, the mature phase of the storm’s evolution exhibited significantly different patterns of behavior at 9 and 3 km. While the minimum pressure at the end of 96 h was 934 hPa for the 9-km simulation, it was about 910 hPa for the 3-km run. The maximum tangential wind at that time showed a difference of about 10 m s−1. Several sensitivity experiments related to the initial vortex intensity, initial radius of the maximum wind, and physics were performed. Based on ensembles of simulations, it appears that radial advection of the tangential wind and, consequently, radial flux of vorticity become important forcing terms in the momentum budget of the mature storm. Stronger convergence in the boundary layer leads to a larger transport of moisture fluxes and, subsequently, a stronger storm at higher resolution.

A comparison between Advanced Scatterometer and Weather Research and Forecasting wind speeds for the Japanese offshore wind resource map

Wind Energy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (7) ◽  
pp. 1596-1609
Author(s):  
Yuko Takeyama ◽  
Teruo Ohsawa ◽  
Jun Tanemoto ◽  
Susumu Shimada ◽  
Katsutoshi Kozai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Offshore Wind ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Wind Resource ◽  
Weather Research

Evaluating Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity to Land and Soil Conditions Representative of Karst Landscapes

2017 ◽  
Vol 166 (3) ◽  
pp. 503-530 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher M. Johnson ◽  
Xingang Fan ◽  
Rezaul Mahmood ◽  
Chris Groves ◽  
Jason S. Polk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Soil Conditions ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Model Sensitivity ◽  
Karst Landscapes ◽  
Weather Research
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