Spatial Patterns of Glaciers in Response to Spatial Patterns in Regional Climate

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (17) ◽  
pp. 4606-4620 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathleen Huybers ◽  
Gerard H. Roe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Spatial Correlations ◽  
Climate History ◽  
Glacier Length

Abstract Glaciers are direct recorders of climate history and have come to be regarded as emblematic of climate change. They respond to variations in both accumulation and ablation, which can have separate atmospheric controls, leading to some ambiguity in interpreting the causes of glacier changes. Both climate change and climate variability have characteristic spatial patterns and time scales. The focus of this study is the regional-scale response of glaciers to natural patterns of climate variability. Using the Pacific Northwest of North America as the setting, the authors employ a simple linear glacier model to study how the combination of patterns of melt-season temperature and patterns of annual accumulation produce patterns of glacier length variations. Regional-scale spatial correlations in glacier length variations reflect three factors: the spatial correlations in precipitation and melt-season temperature, the geometry of a glacier and how it determines the relative importance of temperature and precipitation, and the climatic setting of the glaciers (i.e., maritime or continental). With the self-consistent framework developed here, the authors are able to evaluate the relative importance of these three factors. The results also highlight that, in order to understand the natural variability of glaciers, it is critically important to know the small-scale patterns of climate in mountainous terrain. The method can be applied to any area containing mountain glaciers and provides a baseline expectation for natural glacier variation against which the effects of climate changes can be evaluated.

scholarly journals The response of glaciers to intrinsic climate variability: observations and models of late-Holocene variations in the Pacific Northwest

2009 ◽  
Vol 55 (193) ◽  
pp. 839-854 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerard H. Roe ◽  
Michael A. O’Neal
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Fundamental Property ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate History ◽  
Weather Model ◽  
Glacier Length ◽  
Glacier Modeling

AbstractDiscriminating between glacier variations due to natural climate variability and those due to true climate change is crucial for the interpretation and attribution of past glacier changes, and for the expectations of future changes. We explore this issue for the well-documented glaciers of Mount Baker in the Cascades Mountains of Washington State, USA, using glacier histories, glacier modeling, weather data and numerical weather model output. We find that natural variability alone is capable of producing kilometer-scale excursions in glacier length on multi-decadal and centennial timescales. Such changes are similar in magnitude to those attributed to a global Little Ice Age. The null hypothesis, that no climate change is required to explain the glacier fluctuations in this setting, cannot be rejected. These results for Mount Baker glaciers are also consistent with an earlier study analyzing individual glaciers in Scandinavia and the Alps. The principle that long-timescale fluctuations of glacier length can be driven by short-timescale fluctuations in climate reflects a robust and fundamental property of stochastically forced physical systems with memory. It is very likely that this principle also applies to other Alpine glaciers and that it therefore complicates interpretations of the relationship between glacier and climate history. However, the amplitude and timescale of the length fluctuations depends on the details of the particular glacier geometry and climatic setting, and this remains largely unevaluated for most glaciers.

scholarly journals Calcium and Potassium Nutrition Increases the Water Use Efficiency in Coffee: A Promising Strategy to Adapt to Climate Change

Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 75
Author(s):  
Victor Hugo Ramírez-Builes ◽  
Jürgen Küsters
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Water Use Efficiency ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
Coffee Production ◽  
Use Efficiency

Coffee (Coffea spp.) represents one of the most important sources of income and goods for the agricultural sector in Central America, Colombia, and the Caribbean region. The sustainability of coffee production at the global and regional scale is under threat by climate change, with a major risk of losing near to 50% of today’s suitable area for coffee by 2050. Rain-fed coffee production dominates in the region, and under increasing climate variability and climate change impacts, these production areas are under threat due to air temperature increase and changes in rainfall patterns and volumes. Identification, evaluation, and implementation of adaptation strategies for growers to cope with climate variability and change impacts are relevant and high priority. Incremental adaptation strategies, including proper soil and water management, contribute to improved water use efficiency (WUE) and should be the first line of action to adapt the coffee crop to the changing growing conditions. This research’s objective was to evaluate at field level over five years the influence of fertilization with calcium (Ca+2) and potassium (K+) on WUE in two coffee arabica varieties: cv. Castillo and cv. Caturra. Castillo has resistance against coffee leaf rust (CLR) (Hemileia vastatrix Verkeley and Brome), while Caturra is not CLR-resistant. WUE was influenced by yield changes during the years by climate variability due to El Niño–ENSO conditions and CLR incidence. Application of Ca+2 and K+ improved the WUE under such variable conditions. The highest WUE values were obtained with an application of 100 kg CaO ha−1 year−1 and between 180 to 230 kg K2O ha−1 year−1. The results indicate that adequate nutrition with Ca+2 and K+ can improve WUE in the long-term, even underwater deficit conditions and after the substantial incidence. Hence, an optimum application of Ca+2 and K+ in rain-fed coffee plantations can be regarded as an effective strategy to adapt to climate variability and climate change.

scholarly journals Understanding drivers of glacier-length variability over the last millennium

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 1645-1662
Author(s):  
Alan Huston ◽  
Nicholas Siler ◽  
Gerard H. Roe ◽  
Erin Pettit ◽  
Nathan J. Steiger
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Forced Response ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
External Forcing ◽  
Climate History ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Glacier Length

Abstract. Changes in glacier length reflect the integrated response to local fluctuations in temperature and precipitation resulting from both external forcing (e.g., volcanic eruptions or anthropogenic CO2) and internal climate variability. In order to interpret the climate history reflected in the glacier moraine record, the influence of both sources of climate variability must therefore be considered. Here we study the last millennium of glacier-length variability across the globe using a simple dynamic glacier model, which we force with temperature and precipitation time series from a 13-member ensemble of simulations from a global climate model. The ensemble allows us to quantify the contributions to glacier-length variability from external forcing (given by the ensemble mean) and internal variability (given by the ensemble spread). Within this framework, we find that internal variability is the predominant source of length fluctuations for glaciers with a shorter response time (less than a few decades). However, for glaciers with longer response timescales (more than a few decades) external forcing has a greater influence than internal variability. We further find that external forcing also dominates when the response of glaciers from widely separated regions is averaged. Single-forcing simulations indicate that, for this climate model, most of the forced response over the last millennium, pre-anthropogenic warming, has been driven by global-scale temperature change associated with volcanic aerosols.

scholarly journals Understanding Drivers of Glacier Length Variability Over the Last Millennium

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Huston ◽  
Nicholas Siler ◽  
Gerard H. Roe ◽  
Erin Pettit ◽  
Nathan J. Steiger
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Forced Response ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
External Forcing ◽  
Climate History ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Glacier Length ◽  
Length Changes

Abstract. Changes in glacier length reflect the integrated response to local fluctuations in temperature and precipitation resulting from both external forcing (e.g., volcanic eruptions or anthropogenic CO2) and internal climate variability. In order to interpret the climate history reflected in the glacier moraine record, therefore, the influence of both sources of climate variability must be considered. Here we study the last millennium of glacier length variability across the globe using a simple dynamic glacier model, which we force with temperature and precipitation time series from a 13-member ensemble of simulations from a global climate model. The ensemble allows us to quantify the contributions to glacier length variability from external forcing (given by the ensemble mean) and internal variability (given by the ensemble spread). Within this framework, we find that internal variability drives most length changes in mountain glaciers that have a response timescale of less than a few decades. However, for glaciers with longer response timescales (more than a few decades) external forcing has a greater influence than internal variability. We further find that external forcing also dominates when the response of glaciers from widely separated regions is averaged. Single-forcing simulations indicate that most of the forced response over the last millennium, pre-anthropogenic warming, has been driven by global-scale temperature change associated with volcanic aerosols.

scholarly journals The Benefits of Global High Resolution for Climate Simulation: Process Understanding and the Enabling of Stakeholder Decisions at the Regional Scale

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (11) ◽  
pp. 2341-2359 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. Roberts ◽  
P. L. Vidale ◽  
C. Senior ◽  
H. T. Hewitt ◽  
C. Bates ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel

AbstractThe time scales of the Paris Climate Agreement indicate urgent action is required on climate policies over the next few decades, in order to avoid the worst risks posed by climate change. On these relatively short time scales the combined effect of climate variability and change are both key drivers of extreme events, with decadal time scales also important for infrastructure planning. Hence, in order to assess climate risk on such time scales, we require climate models to be able to represent key aspects of both internally driven climate variability and the response to changing forcings. In this paper we argue that we now have the modeling capability to address these requirements—specifically with global models having horizontal resolutions considerably enhanced from those typically used in previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises. The improved representation of weather and climate processes in such models underpins our enhanced confidence in predictions and projections, as well as providing improved forcing to regional models, which are better able to represent local-scale extremes (such as convective precipitation). We choose the global water cycle as an illustrative example because it is governed by a chain of processes for which there is growing evidence of the benefits of higher resolution. At the same time it comprises key processes involved in many of the expected future climate extremes (e.g., flooding, drought, tropical and midlatitude storms).

scholarly journals Impacts of Climate Variability and Climate Change and Adaptation Strategy among Small Scale Farmers of Kurfa Chele District, East Hararghe Zone, Oromia Region, Ethiopia

2020 ◽  
pp. 113-125
Author(s):  
Suleyman Abdureman Omer ◽  
Nuradin Abdi Hassen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Information Dissemination ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Research Strategies ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Small Scale Farmers

Climate variability and change has caused instability in production and decline in productivity exacerbating food insecurity particularly in Latin America, Africa including Ethiopia and some parts of Asia. The magnitude and frequency of extreme climatic events is projected to increase. The effects of these climatic changes will become even more pronounced among small scale farmers whose farming activities are weather dependent and vulnerable to climate change, and already affected by environmental degradation and socio-economic risks. Effective adaptation to climate change among small scale farmers is therefore of critical importance, and is dependent on adoption of climate smart practices. However, studies have shown low adoption of climate smart farming practices among small scale farmers world over, in East Hararghe Zone and Kurfa Chele District. This study therefore examined factors influencing adoption of climate smart practices among farmers Kurfa Chele District, East Hararghe Zone, evaluated their existing knowledge, attitude and practice of these practices, assessed their perception of climate change, examined the extent of climate information dissemination, and the resultant impact on uptake of these practices. The research adopted a survey research design, where both quantitative and qualitative research strategies were used. Data was gathered through Focus Group Discussions, questionnaires, key informant interviews, observations and desk review. Both simple random and purposive sampling was used to sample 420 small scale farmers and technical officers of the agriculture sector respectively. Data was analysed using both quantitative and qualitative techniques. To test the statistical significance of the findings and relationships between the variables, chi-square test was used.

Adaptations to Climate Change and Climate Variability in the Agriculture Sector in Mauritius

2017 ◽  
pp. 655-680
Author(s):  
Prakash N. K. Deenapanray ◽  
Indoomatee Ramma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Phase Ii ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Small Island ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
International Climate ◽  
Small Scale Farmers ◽  
Methodological Assessment

Like many Small Island Developing States (SIDS), Mauritius is highly vulnerable to the impacts of Climate Change (CC) and Climate Variability (CV). Particularly vulnerable are small-scale farmers who carry out rain-fed agriculture. While adaptation to CC and CV has taken place among small planters, the first methodological assessment of the technology needs for adaptation in the agriculture sector took place in Phase II of the global GEF-UNEP Technology Needs Assessment (TNA) project. In addition to providing a systematic approach for identifying and prioritizing adaptation technologies, the TNA project also sought to increase the preparedness of Mauritius for leveraging international climate financing and support for technology transfer. Since Mauritius was the only SIDS participating in Phase II of the TNA project, this chapter shares with other SIDS the methodology and lessons learned. The climate change-agriculture-food security nexus is also discussed.

Adaptations to Climate Change and Climate Variability in the Agriculture Sector in Mauritius

2014 ◽  
pp. 130-165
Author(s):  
Prakash N. K. Deenapanray ◽  
Indoomatee Ramma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Phase Ii ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Small Island ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
International Climate ◽  
Small Scale Farmers ◽  
Methodological Assessment

Like many Small Island Developing States (SIDS), Mauritius is highly vulnerable to the impacts of Climate Change (CC) and Climate Variability (CV). Particularly vulnerable are small-scale farmers who carry out rain-fed agriculture. While adaptation to CC and CV has taken place among small planters, the first methodological assessment of the technology needs for adaptation in the agriculture sector took place in Phase II of the global GEF-UNEP Technology Needs Assessment (TNA) project. In addition to providing a systematic approach for identifying and prioritizing adaptation technologies, the TNA project also sought to increase the preparedness of Mauritius for leveraging international climate financing and support for technology transfer. Since Mauritius was the only SIDS participating in Phase II of the TNA project, this chapter shares with other SIDS the methodology and lessons learned. The climate change-agriculture-food security nexus is also discussed.

Impact of regional climate model input and soil map resolution on projected winter wheat production in SW Germany

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Gayler ◽  
Rajina Bajracharya ◽  
Tobias Weber ◽  
Thilo Streck
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Grid Cell ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Soil Map ◽  
Soil Information ◽  
The Impact

<p>Agricultural ecosystem models, driven by climate projections and fed with soil information and plausible management scenarios are frequently used tools to predict future developments in agricultural landscapes. On the regional scale, the required soil parameters must be derived from soil maps that are available in different spatial resolutions, ranging from grid cell sizes of 50 m up to 1 km and more. The typical spatial resolution of regional climate projections is currently around 12 km. Given the small-scale heterogeneity in soil properties, using the most accurate soil representation could be important for predictions of crop growth. However, simulations with very highly resolved soil data requires greater computing time and higher effort for data organization and storage. Moreover, the higher resolution may not necessarily lead to better simulations due to redundant information of the land surface and because the impact of climate forcing could dominate over the effect of soil variability. This leads to the question if the use of high-resolution soil data leads to significantly different predictions of future yields and grain protein trends compared to simulations in which soil data is adapted to the resolution of the climate input.</p><p>This study investigated the impact of weather and soil input on simulated crop growth in an intensively used agricultural region in Southwest Germany. For all areas classified as ‘arable land’ (CLC10), winter wheat growth was simulated over a 44-year period (2006 to 2050) using weather projections from three regional climate models and soil information at two spatial resolutions. The simulations were performed with the model system Expert-N 5.0, where the crop model Gecros was combined with the Richards equation and the CN turnover module of the model Daisy. Soil hydraulic parameters as well as initial values of soil organic matter pools were estimated from BK50 soil map information on soil texture and soil organic matter content, using pedo-transfer functions and SOM pool fractionation following Bruun and Jensen (2002). The coarser soil map is derived from BK50 soil map (50m x 50m) by selecting only the dominant soil type in a 12km × 12km grid to be representative for that grid cell. The crop model was calibrated with field data of crop phenology, leaf area, biomass, yield and crop nitrogen, which were collected at a research station within the study area between 2009 and 2018.</p><p>The predicted increase in temperatures during the growing season correlated with earlier maturity, lower yields and a higher grain protein content. The regional mean values varied by +/- 0.5 t/ha or +/-0.3 percentage points of protein content depending to the climate model used. On the regional scale, the simulated trends remained unchanged using high-resolution or coarse resolution soil data. However, there are strong differences in both the forecasted averages and the distribution of forecasts, as the coarser resolution captures neither the small-scale heterogeneity nor the average of the high-resolution results.</p>

scholarly journals Holocene climate variability in north-eastern Italy: potential influence of the NAO and solar activity recorded by speleothem data

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 1367-1383 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Scholz ◽  
S. Frisia ◽  
A. Borsato ◽  
C. Spötl ◽  
J. Fohlmeister ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Stable Isotope ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Holocene Climate ◽  
Winter Climate ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
The Mediterranean

Abstract. Here we present high-resolution stable isotope and lamina thickness profiles as well as radiocarbon data for the Holocene stalagmite ER 76 from Grotta di Ernesto (north-eastern Italy), which was dated by combined U-series dating and lamina counting. ER 76 grew between 8 ka (thousands of years before 2000 AD) and today, with a hiatus from 2.6 to 0.4 ka. Data from nine meteorological stations in Trentino show a significant influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on winter temperature and precipitation in the cave region. Spectral analysis of the stable isotope signals of ER 76 reveals significant peaks at periods of 110, 60–70, 40–50, 32–37 and around 25 a. Except for the cycle between 32 and 37 a all periodicities have corresponding peaks in power spectra of solar variability, and the 25-a cycle may correspond to NAO variability. This suggests that climate variability in northern Italy was influenced by both solar activity and the NAO during the Holocene. Six periods of warm winter climate in the cave region were identified. These are centred at 7.9, 7.4, 6.5, 5.5, 4.9 and 3.7 ka, and their duration ranges from 100 to 400 a. The two oldest warm phases coincide with the deposition of sapropel S1 in the Mediterranean Sea indicating that the climate in the cave region was influenced by this prominent pluvial phase in the Mediterranean area. For the younger warm phases it is difficult to establish a supra-regional climate pattern, and some of them may, thus, reflect regional climate variability. This highlights the complexity of regional and supra-regional scale Holocene climate patterns.

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