scholarly journals The Climatology of the Middle Atmosphere in a Vertically Extended Version of the Met Office’s Climate Model. Part II: Variability

2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (11) ◽  
pp. 3637-3651 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott M. Osprey ◽  
Lesley J. Gray ◽  
Steven C. Hardiman ◽  
Neal Butchart ◽  
Andrew C. Bushell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Occurrence Rate ◽  
Extended Version ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Annular Modes ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract Stratospheric variability is examined in a vertically extended version of the Met Office global climate model. Equatorial variability includes the simulation of an internally generated quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and semiannual oscillation (SAO). Polar variability includes an examination of the frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) and annular mode variability. Results from two different horizontal resolutions are also compared. Changes in gravity wave filtering at the higher resolution result in a slightly longer QBO that extends deeper into the lower stratosphere. At the higher resolution there is also a reduction in the occurrence rate of sudden stratospheric warmings, in better agreement with observations. This is linked with reduced levels of resolved waves entering the high-latitude stratosphere. Covariability of the tropical and extratropical stratosphere is seen, linking the phase of the QBO with disturbed NH winters, although this linkage is sporadic, in agreement with observations. Finally, tropospheric persistence time scales and seasonal variability for the northern and southern annular modes are significantly improved at the higher resolution, consistent with findings from other studies.

Large internal variability dominates over global warming signal in observed lower stratospheric QBO amplitude

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-43
Author(s):  
Aaron Match ◽  
Stephan Fueglistaler
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Dynamical Process ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Amplitude Profile ◽  
Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Middle Stratosphere

AbstractGlobal warming projections of dynamics are less robust than projections of thermodynamics. However, robust aspects of the thermodynamics can be used to constrain some dynamical aspects. This paper argues that tropospheric expansion under global warming (a thermodynamical process) explains changes in the amplitude of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the lower and middle stratosphere (a dynamical process). A theoretical scaling for tropospheric expansion of approximately 6 hPa K−1 is derived, which agrees well with global climate model (GCM) experiments. Using this theoretical scaling, the response of QBO amplitude to global warming is predicted by shifting the climatological QBO amplitude profile upwards by 6 hPa per Kelvin of global warming. In global warming simulations, QBO amplitude in the lower- to mid-stratosphere shifts upwards as predicted by tropospheric expansion. Applied to observations, the tropospheric expansion framework suggests a historical weakening of QBO amplitude at 70 hPa of 3% decade−1 from 1953-2020. This expected weakening trend is half of the 6% decade−1 from 1953-2012 detected and attributed to global warming in a recent study. The previously reported trend was reinforced by record low QBO amplitudes during the mid-2000s, from which the QBO has since recovered. Given the modest weakening expected on physical grounds, past decadal modulations of QBO amplitude are reinterpreted as a hitherto unrecognized source of internal variability. This large internal variability dominates over the global warming signal, such that despite 65 years of observations, there is not yet a statistically significant weakening trend.

Revisiting the Krakatau 1883 Volcanic Aerosol Dispersal 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael Castro ◽  
Tushar Mittal ◽  
Stephen Self
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Volcanic Plume ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Pinatubo Eruption ◽  
The Impact

<p>The 1883 Krakatau eruption is one of the most well-known historical volcanic eruptions due to its significant global climate impact as well as first recorded observations of various aerosol associated optical and physical phenomena. Although much work has been done on the former by comparison of global climate model predictions/ simulations with instrumental and proxy climate records, the latter has surprisingly not been studied in similar detail. In particular, there is a wealth of observations of vivid red sunsets, blue suns, and other similar features, that can be used to analyze the spatio-temporal dispersal of volcanic aerosols in summer to winter 1883. Thus, aerosol cloud dispersal after the Krakatau eruption can be estimated, bolstered by aerosol cloud behavior as monitored by satellite-based instrument observations after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. This is one of a handful of large historic eruptions where this analysis can be done (using non-climate proxy methods). In this study, we model particle trajectories of the Krakatau eruption cloud using the Hysplit trajectory model and compare our results with our compiled observational dataset (principally using Verbeek 1884, the Royal Society report, and Kiessling 1884).</p><p>In particular, we explore the effect of different atmospheric states - the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) which impacts zonal movement of the stratospheric volcanic plume - to estimate the phase of the QBO in 1883 required for a fast-moving westward cloud. Since this alone is unable to match the observed latitudinal spread of the aerosols, we then explore the impact of an  umbrella cloud (2000 km diameter) that almost certainly formed during such a large eruption. A large umbrella cloud, spreading over ~18 degrees within the duration of the climax of the eruption (6-8 hours), can lead to much quicker latitudinal spread than a point source (vent). We will discuss the results of the combined model (umbrella cloud and correct QBO phase) with historical accounts and observations, as well as previous work on the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. We also consider the likely impacts of water on aerosol concentrations and the relevance of this process for eruptions with possible significant seawater interactions, like Krakatau. We posit that the role of umbrella clouds is an under-appreciated, but significant, process for beginning to model the climatic impacts of large volcanic eruptions.</p>

The MJO-QBO Relationship in a GCM with Stratospheric Nudging

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-69
Author(s):  
Zane Martin ◽  
Clara Orbe ◽  
Shuguang Wang ◽  
Adam Sobel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Meridional Winds ◽  
Goddard Institute ◽  
Minimal Bias

AbstractObservational studies show a strong connection between the intraseasonal Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): the boreal winter MJO is stronger, more predictable, and has different teleconnections when the QBO in the lower stratosphere is easterly versus westerly. Despite the strength of the observed connection, global climate models do not produce an MJO-QBO link. Here the authors use a current-generation ocean-atmosphere coupled NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model (Model E2.1) to examine the MJO-QBO link. To represent the QBO with minimal bias, the model zonal mean stratospheric zonal and meridional winds are relaxed to reanalysis fields from 1980-2017. The model troposphere, including the MJO, is allowed to freely evolve. The model with stratospheric nudging captures QBO signals well, including QBO temperature anomalies. However, an ensemble of nudged simulations still lacks an MJO-QBO connection.

scholarly journals Dynamics of the Disrupted 2015/16 Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (15) ◽  
pp. 5661-5674 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence Coy ◽  
Paul A. Newman ◽  
Steven Pawson ◽  
Leslie R. Lait
Keyword(s):  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Wave Forcing ◽  
Wind Variability ◽  
Momentum Fluxes ◽  
Horizontal Momentum ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Global Reanalysis ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

A significant disruption of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) occurred during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter of 2015/16. Since the QBO is the major wind variability source in the tropical lower stratosphere and influences the rate of ascent of air entering the stratosphere, understanding the cause of this singular disruption may provide new insights into the variability and sensitivity of the global climate system. Here this disruptive event is examined using global reanalysis winds and temperatures from 1980 to 2016. Results reveal record maxima in tropical horizontal momentum fluxes and wave forcing of the tropical zonal mean zonal wind over the NH 2015/16 winter. The Rossby waves responsible for these record tropical values appear to originate in the NH and were focused strongly into the tropics at the 40-hPa level. Two additional NH winters, 1987/88 and 2010/11, were also found to have large tropical lower-stratospheric momentum flux divergences; however, the QBO westerlies did not change to easterlies in those cases.

scholarly journals The Effects of a Well-Resolved Stratosphere on the Simulated Boreal Winter Circulation in a Climate Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (5) ◽  
pp. 1203-1226 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoshio Kawatani ◽  
Kevin Hamilton ◽  
Lesley J. Gray ◽  
Scott M. Osprey ◽  
Shingo Watanabe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Westerly Jet ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Jet Structure ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract The impact of stratospheric representation is investigated using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MIROC-AGCM) run with different model-lid heights and stratospheric vertical resolutions, but unchanged horizontal resolutions (~1.125°) and subgrid parameterizations. One-hundred-year integrations of the model were conducted using configurations with 34, 42, 72, and 168 vertical layers and model-lid heights of ~27 km (L34), 47 km (L42), 47 km (L72), and 100 km (L168). Analysis of the results focused on the Northern Hemisphere in winter. Compared with the L42 model, the L34 model produces a poorer simulation of the stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) in the lower stratosphere, with weaker polar downwelling and accompanying cold-pole and westerly jet biases. The westerly bias extends into the troposphere and even to the surface. The tropospheric westerlies and zone of baroclinic wave activity shift northward; surface pressure has negative (positive) biases in the high (mid-) latitudes, with concomitant precipitation shifts. The L72 and L168 models generate a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) while the L34 and 42 models do not. The L168 model includes the mesosphere, and thus resolves the upper branch of the BDC. The L72 model simulates stronger polar downwelling associated with the BDC than does the L42 model. However, experiments with prescribed nudging of the tropical stratospheric winds suggest differences in the QBO representation cannot account for L72 − L42 differences in the climatological polar night jet structure. The results show that the stratospheric vertical resolution and inclusion of the full middle atmosphere significantly affect tropospheric circulations.

scholarly journals The diurnal and semidiurnal tides over Ascension Island (° S, 14° W) and their interaction with the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation: studies with meteor radar, eCMAM and WACCM

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 9543-9564 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. N. Davis ◽  
J. Du ◽  
A. K. Smith ◽  
W. E. Ward ◽  
N. J. Mitchell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Atmospheric Tides ◽  
Meteor Radar ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Meridional Component ◽  
Ascension Island ◽  
Good For ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract. Horizontal winds in the mesosphere have been measured over Ascension Island (8° S, 14° W) in the tropical mid-Atlantic region throughout the years 2002–2011. The observations were made by a very high frequency (VHF) meteor radar. The observations reveal the presence of atmospheric tides of large amplitude. The observations are analysed to characterise the seasonal and interannual variability of the diurnal and semidiurnal tides. Monthly-mean diurnal tidal amplitudes are found to reach values as large as 48 m s−1 in the meridional component and 41 m s−1 in the zonal. A semiannual seasonal variation is found in diurnal tidal amplitudes with amplitude maxima at the equinoxes and amplitude minima at the solstices. Diurnal tidal meridional vertical wavelengths are generally in the range 24–30 km. The diurnal zonal vertical wavelengths are similar to the meridional, except for the winter months when the zonal vertical wavelengths are much longer, occasionally exceeding 100 km. Semidiurnal amplitudes are observed to be significantly smaller than diurnal amplitudes. Semidiurnal vertical wavelengths range from 20 to more than 100 km. Our observations of tidal amplitudes and phases are compared with the predictions of the extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (eCMAM) and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). Both eCMAM and WACCM reproduce the trend for greater diurnal amplitudes in the meridional component than the zonal. However, eCMAM tends to overestimate meridional amplitudes, while WACCM underestimates both zonal and meridional amplitudes. Vertical wavelength predictions are generally good for both models; however, eCMAM predicts shorter diurnal zonal vertical wavelengths than are observed in winter, while WACCM predicts longer zonal vertical wavelengths than observed for the semidiurnal tide for most months. Semidiurnal amplitude predictions are generally good for both models. It is found that larger-than-average diurnal and semidiurnal tidal amplitudes occur when the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) at 10 hPa is eastwards, and smaller-than-average amplitudes occur when it is westwards. Correlations between the amplitude perturbations and the El Niño Southern Oscillation are also found. The precise mechanism for these correlations remains unclear.

Machine Learning Emulation of Parameterized Gravity Wave Momentum Fluxes in an Atmospheric Global Climate Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zachary Espinosa ◽  
Aditi Sheshadri ◽  
Gerald Cain ◽  
Edwin Gerber ◽  
Kevin DallaSanta
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Gravity Wave ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Momentum Fluxes ◽  
Flow Variables ◽  
Wave Momentum

<p>We present a novel, single-column gravity wave parameterization (GWP) that uses machine learning to emulate a physics-based GWP. An artificial neural network (ANN) is trained with output from an idealized atmospheric model and tested in an offline environment, illustrating that an ANN can learn the salient features of gravity wave momentum transport directly from resolved flow variables. We demonstrate that when trained on the westward phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, the ANN can skillfully generate the momentum fluxes associated with the eastward phase. We also show that the meridional and zonal wind components are the only flow variables necessary to predict horizontal momentum fluxes with a globally and temporally averaged R^2 value over 0.8. State-of-the-art GWPs are severely limited by computational constraints and a scarcity of observations for validation. This work constitutes a significant step towards obtaining observationally validated, computationally efficient GWPs in global climate models.</p>

scholarly journals Origins of multi-decadal variability in sudden stratospheric warmings

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 205-231
Author(s):  
Oscar Dimdore-Miles ◽  
Lesley Gray ◽  
Scott Osprey
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Major Influence ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex

Abstract. Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are major disruptions of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar vortex and occur on average approximately six times per decade in observation-based records. However, within these records, intervals of significantly higher and lower SSW rates are observed, suggesting the possibility of low-frequency variations in event occurrence. A better understanding of factors that influence this decadal variability may help to improve predictability of NH midlatitude surface climate, through stratosphere–troposphere coupling. In this work, multi-decadal variability of SSW events is examined in a 1000-year pre-industrial simulation of a coupled global climate model. Using a wavelet spectral decomposition method, we show that hiatus events (intervals of a decade or more with no SSWs) and consecutive SSW events (extended intervals with at least one SSW in each year) vary on multi-decadal timescales of periods between 60 and 90 years. Signals on these timescales are present for approximately 450 years of the simulation. We investigate the possible source of these long-term signals and find that the direct impact of variability in tropical sea surface temperatures, as well as the associated Aleutian Low, can account for only a small portion of the SSW variability. Instead, the major influence on long-term SSW variability is associated with long-term variability in amplitude of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The QBO influence is consistent with the well-known Holton–Tan relationship, with SSW hiatus intervals associated with extended periods of particularly strong, deep QBO westerly phases. The results support recent studies that have highlighted the role of vertical coherence in the QBO when considering coupling between the QBO, the polar vortex and tropospheric circulation.

scholarly journals Defining metrics of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in global climate models

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 2157-2168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Verena Schenzinger ◽  
Scott Osprey ◽  
Lesley Gray ◽  
Neal Butchart
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Dominant Mode ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Radiosonde Observation ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract. As the dominant mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) has been subject to extensive research. Though there is a well-developed theory of this phenomenon being forced by wave–mean flow interaction, simulating the QBO adequately in global climate models still remains difficult. This paper presents a set of metrics to characterize the morphology of the QBO using a number of different reanalysis datasets and the FU Berlin radiosonde observation dataset. The same metrics are then calculated from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 and Chemistry-Climate Model Validation Activity 2 simulations which included a representation of QBO-like behaviour to evaluate which aspects of the QBO are well captured by the models and which ones remain a challenge for future model development.

Global Climate modelling of Saturn to determine the nature of its equatorial oscillation 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deborah Bardet ◽  
Aymeric Spiga ◽  
Sandrine Guerlet
Keyword(s):  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Temperature Oscillation ◽  
Driving Mechanism ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Vertical Resolution ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Downward Propagation

<p><strong>Introduction:</strong> The Saturn's Semi-Annual Oscillation (SSAO) observed by Cassini is a source of debate within the community, because of its similarities (sometimes conflicting) with both the terrestrial Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the terrestrial Semi-Annual Oscillation (SAO). As the QBO, the downward propagation of the SSAO occurs almost to the tropopause (Schinder et al. 2011). In contrast, the half a Saturn year period of the SSAO is advocated for a seasonal forcing and hints the SAO mechanism driving. Moreover, observation of anomalies in warm temperature and high hydrocarbon concentration at winter tropics is interpreted as the downwelling branch of a meridional stratospheric circulation. <br>Using DYNAMICO-Saturn Global Climate Model (GCM) -- with an higher vertical discretization (96 vertical levels from 3x10<sup>5 </sup>to 10<sup>-1 </sup>Pa) than previous works (Spiga et al. 2020, Bardet et al. 2021)  -- we performed simulations lasting at 13 simulated Saturn years, to study Saturn's stratospheric equatorial oscillation, its inter-hemispheric circulation and the driving mechanism connecting them. </p><p><strong>Results:</strong> Firstly, DYNAMICO-Saturn depicts a stratospheric equatorial oscillation of temperature and zonal wind. The new vertical resolution permits to stabilize more the oscillation periodicity and its eastward phase compared to previous study. The period varies between 0.5 and 1 simulated Saturn years. Indeed, because of irregularity in the waves and eddy-to-mean forcings, the downward propagation is carried out by episodes of descent followed by episodes of stagnation at a given level of pressure. The amplitude of the associated temperature oscillation is under-estimated by 10 K compared to the Cassini observations.</p><p>Secondly, DYNAMICO-Saturn also models an inter-hemispheric circulation taking place from the summer tropical latitudes to the winter ones, with a strong subsidence between 20 and 40° in the winter hemisphere. The main subsidence branch is located in the same latitude region as temperature and hydrocarbons anomalies observed by Cassini (Guerlet et al. 2009, 2010, Sinclair et al. 2013, Fletcher et al. 2015 and Sylvestre et al. 2015). Furthermore, eddy-to-mean interaction diagnostics show that the phases of Saturn's equatorial oscillation are controlled by the inter-hemispheric circulation. During the solstices, the cross-equatorial drift of the inter-hemispheric circulation, associated to the forcing of the mid-latitude planetary-scale Rossby waves, drive the equatorial zonal wind to westward direction. In contrast, during the equinoctial overturning of the inter-hemispheric circulation, the residual mean circulation is reduced to an unique ascendance at the equator to permit the transport and eastward moment deposition of Kelvin waves from the troposphere.</p><p><strong>Perspectives:</strong> This present modelling study of the dynamics of Saturn's stratosphere confirms the SAO-like character of the Saturn's equatorial oscillation. However, we will also explore the putative part of the QBO-like character of it. We plan to use this new vertical resolution combine to the subgrid-scale gravity wave parameterization. </p>

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document