The Effects of the Quasi-Biannual Oscillation on Tephra Distribution from a Plinian Eruption

<p>The quasi-biannual oscillation (QBO) dominates the equatorial zonal wind in the tropical stratosphere. Alternating easterly and westerly wind regimes form in the upper stratosphere and propagate downwards to the tropopause with a mean period of approximately 28 months. The westerly phase of the QBO is characterized by faster and more regular downward propagation, while the easterly phase has higher intensity (up to double the wind speed) and longer duration. Long-term lower stratospheric wind records indicate prevailing easterly winds (~60 % of the time) for the tropical regions. However, during westerly phases of the QBO, the wind is exclusively blowing towards the east. This leads to different but well predictable tephra distributions during the two phases. The QBO is effectively controlling the variations of the lower stratospheric wind regimes between 15º N and 15º S. Therefore, the effects of the QBO on spatial tephra distribution impact all tropical volcanic regions, including Central America, SE-Asia, the Andean Northern Volcanic Zone and the African Rift. We use the Tephra2 model in a case study from Tandikat volcano in West Sumatra to analyse the different QBO phases' effects on tephra distribution from Plinian eruptions. Incorporating the QBO in probabilistic hazard assessments for Plinian eruptions improves the accuracy of the hazard assessments. Understanding the effects of the QBO on the spatial tephra distribution will also help re-evaluate distal tephra records.   </p>

Global Climate modelling of Saturn to determine the nature of its equatorial oscillation

<p><strong>Introduction:</strong> The Saturn's Semi-Annual Oscillation (SSAO) observed by Cassini is a source of debate within the community, because of its similarities (sometimes conflicting) with both the terrestrial Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the terrestrial Semi-Annual Oscillation (SAO). As the QBO, the downward propagation of the SSAO occurs almost to the tropopause (Schinder et al. 2011). In contrast, the half a Saturn year period of the SSAO is advocated for a seasonal forcing and hints the SAO mechanism driving. Moreover, observation of anomalies in warm temperature and high hydrocarbon concentration at winter tropics is interpreted as the downwelling branch of a meridional stratospheric circulation. <br>Using DYNAMICO-Saturn Global Climate Model (GCM) -- with an higher vertical discretization (96 vertical levels from 3x10<sup>5 </sup>to 10<sup>-1 </sup>Pa) than previous works (Spiga et al. 2020, Bardet et al. 2021)  -- we performed simulations lasting at 13 simulated Saturn years, to study Saturn's stratospheric equatorial oscillation, its inter-hemispheric circulation and the driving mechanism connecting them. </p><p><strong>Results:</strong> Firstly, DYNAMICO-Saturn depicts a stratospheric equatorial oscillation of temperature and zonal wind. The new vertical resolution permits to stabilize more the oscillation periodicity and its eastward phase compared to previous study. The period varies between 0.5 and 1 simulated Saturn years. Indeed, because of irregularity in the waves and eddy-to-mean forcings, the downward propagation is carried out by episodes of descent followed by episodes of stagnation at a given level of pressure. The amplitude of the associated temperature oscillation is under-estimated by 10 K compared to the Cassini observations.</p><p>Secondly, DYNAMICO-Saturn also models an inter-hemispheric circulation taking place from the summer tropical latitudes to the winter ones, with a strong subsidence between 20 and 40° in the winter hemisphere. The main subsidence branch is located in the same latitude region as temperature and hydrocarbons anomalies observed by Cassini (Guerlet et al. 2009, 2010, Sinclair et al. 2013, Fletcher et al. 2015 and Sylvestre et al. 2015). Furthermore, eddy-to-mean interaction diagnostics show that the phases of Saturn's equatorial oscillation are controlled by the inter-hemispheric circulation. During the solstices, the cross-equatorial drift of the inter-hemispheric circulation, associated to the forcing of the mid-latitude planetary-scale Rossby waves, drive the equatorial zonal wind to westward direction. In contrast, during the equinoctial overturning of the inter-hemispheric circulation, the residual mean circulation is reduced to an unique ascendance at the equator to permit the transport and eastward moment deposition of Kelvin waves from the troposphere.</p><p><strong>Perspectives:</strong> This present modelling study of the dynamics of Saturn's stratosphere confirms the SAO-like character of the Saturn's equatorial oscillation. However, we will also explore the putative part of the QBO-like character of it. We plan to use this new vertical resolution combine to the subgrid-scale gravity wave parameterization. </p>

High transient stress in the lower crust: Evidence from dry pseudotachylytes in granulites, Lofoten Archipelago, northern Norway

Seismic activity below the standard seismogenic zone is difficult to investigate because the geological records of such earthquakes, pseudotachylytes, are typically reacted and/or deformed. Here, we describe unusually pristine pseudotachylytes in lower-crustal granulites from the Lofoten Archipelago, northern Norway. The pseudotachylytes have essentially the same mineralogical composition as their host (mainly plagioclase, alkali feldspar, orthopyroxene) and contain microstructures indicative of rapid cooling, i.e., feldspar microlites and spherulites and “cauliflower” garnets. Mylonites are absent, both in the wall rocks and among the pseudotachylyte clasts. The absence of features recording precursory ductile deformation rules out several commonly invoked mechanisms for triggering earthquakes in the lower crust, including thermal runaway, plastic instabilities, and downward propagation of seismic slip from the brittle to the ductile part of a fault. The anhydrous mineralogy of host and pseudotachylytes excludes dehydration-induced embrittlement. In the absence of such weakening mechanisms, stress levels in the lower crust must have been transiently high.

Characteristics of Decaying Convective Boundary Layers Revealed by Large-Eddy Simulations

The decay of the Convective Boundary Layer (CBL) is studied using large-eddy simulations of free and advective CBLs, in which surface heat supply is suddenly cut off. After the cutoff, coherent convective circulations last about one convective time scale and then fade away. In the mixed layer, the decay time scale increases with height, indicating that nonlocal eddies decay slower than near-surface local eddies. The slower decay of turbulence in the middle of CBL than near-surface turbulence is reconfirmed from the analysis of pattern correlations of perturbations of vertical velocity. Perturbations of potential temperature and scalar concentration decay faster and slower than vertical velocity perturbations, respectively. A downward propagation of negative heat flux and its oscillation are found and a quadrant analysis reveals that warmer air sinking events are responsible for the downward propagation. The fourth quadrant events seem to be induced by demixing of air parcels, entrained from above the CBL. The advective CBL simulation with geostrophic wind illustrates that near-surface eddies are mechanically generated and they decelerate flow from the bottom up in the CBL/residual layer. The two-dimensional spectra show the height- and scale-dependent characteristics of decaying convective turbulence again in the free and advective boundary layer simulations.

Solar Influences on Stratospheric Circulation Patterns

<p>The impact of the solar cycle on the NH winter stratospheric circulation is analyzed using<br>simulations of a Model of an idealized Moist Atmosphere (MiMA). By comparing solar minimum<br>periods to solar maximum periods, the solar impact on the stratosphere is evaluated: Solar<br>maximum periods are accompanied by warming of the tropics that extends into the midlatitudes<br>due to an altered Brewer Dobson Circulation. This warming of the subtropics and the altered<br>Brewer Dobson Circulation leads to an increase in zonal wind in midlatitudes, which is then<br>followed by a decrease in E-P flux convergence near the winter pole which extends the enhanced<br>westerlies to subpolar latitudes.<br>We use the transformed Eulerian mean framework to reveal the processes that lead to the<br>formation of this sub-polar zonal wind anomaly and its downward propagation from the top of the<br>stratosphere to the tropopause.</p>

The downward propagation of split- and displacement-type SSWs in an idealised model

<p>Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) have a significant downward influence on the tropospheric circulation below, although the mechanisms governing this downward impact are not well understood. It is also not known if the type of SSW event – be them splits or displacements – play a role in determining the magnitude of the tropospheric response. We here examine the impacts of split- and displacement-type SSWs on the troposphere.</p><p>To do this, we use the recently developed model of an idealised moist atmosphere to impose zonally-asymmetric warming perturbations to the extratropical stratosphere, extending the work of a recent study by the authors in which a zonally-symmetric heating perturbation was imposed. This model of ‘intermediate complexity’ is particularly suited to this study as it incorporates the radiation scheme that is utilised by operational forecast systems, including both the ECMWF and NCEP. The radiation scheme also allows us to force the model with a realistic ozone profile, and thus to simulate realistic radiative timescales in the stratosphere. From a control run with a realistic climatology, we perform an ensemble of spin-off runs every January 1<sup>st</sup> with imposed high-latitude stratospheric heating perturbations of varying degrees of magnitude. The heating perturbation is switched on for a limited period of time to mimic the sudden nature of a SSW event and the troposphere is allowed to evolve freely. We compare the evolution of the tropospheric response to the forced split and displacement-type SSWs with free-running SSWs of the same type in the control run.</p><p>By modifying only the temperature tendency equation as opposed to the momentum budget, our experiments allow us to isolate the tropospheric response associated with changes in the polar-vortex strength (e.g., a direct or indirect modulation of planetary waves and synoptic waves), rather than due to any planetary-wave momentum torques that initially drive the SSW. Nevertheless, the imposition of wave-1 and wave-2 heating perturbations provide a more realistic post-onset SSW state than that which occurs in response to zonal-mean heating perturbations as performed in our previous study.</p>

Response of Near-Inertial Shear to Wind Stress Curl and Sea Level

Near-inertial waves (NIWs) contain a pronounced portion of shear energy in the internal wave field and is of great importance to deep ocean mixing. However, accurate simulation of NIWs remains a challenge. Here we analyzed 3-year long mooring observation of velocity profiles over 80–800 m to study the responses of near-inertial downward shear to varying wind stress curls and sea level anomalies (SLAs). It is demonstrated that moderate (even weak) cyclone makes more contributions to enhanced shear below the pycnocline than very strong cyclone. Because very strong curl can stall the downward propagation of large shear. The large positive and negative SLAs cause the accumulation of large shear in the lower and upper parts of the pycnocline through inducing downwelling and upwelling motions, respectively. Time variation of near-inertial shear was strongly influenced by cases of large curls and interannual variation of SLA, and thus did not follow the seasonal variation of wind stress. Our analyses suggest that matched fields of wind stress curl and SLA, and well representing the ocean response to moderate cyclone are needed in simulating the role of NIWs on mixing.

Hydrodynamics of metachronal paddling: effects of varying Reynolds number and phase lag

Negatively buoyant freely swimming crustaceans such as krill must generate downward momentum in order to maintain their position in the water column. These animals use a drag-based propulsion strategy, where pairs of closely spaced swimming limbs are oscillated rhythmically from the tail to head. Each pair is oscillated with a phase delay relative to the neighbouring pair, resulting in a metachronal wave travelling in the direction of animal motion. It remains unclear how oscillations of limbs in the horizontal plane can generate vertical momentum. Using particle image velocimetry measurements on a robotic model, we observed that metachronal paddling with non-zero phase lag created geometries of adjacent paddles that promote the formation of counter-rotating vortices. The interaction of these vortices resulted in generating large-scale angled downward jets. Increasing phase lag resulted in more vertical orientation of the jet, and phase lags in the range used by Antarctic krill produced the most total momentum. Synchronous paddling produced lower total momentum when compared with metachronal paddling. Lowering Reynolds number by an order of magnitude below the range of adult krill (250–1000) showed diminished downward propagation of the jet and lower vertical momentum. Our findings show that metachronal paddling is capable of producing flows that can generate both lift (vertical) and thrust (horizontal) forces needed for fast forward swimming and hovering.

Statistical Characteristics of Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in CESM1-WACCM: A Comparison with the JRA55 and NCEP/NCAR Reanalyses

Using the historical simulation from the CESM1-WACCM coupled model and based on the JRA55 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, the general statistical characteristics of the major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in this stratosphere-resolving model are assessed. The statistical and diagnostic results show that CESM1-WACCM can successfully reproduce the frequency of SSW events. As in the JRA55 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, five or six SSW events, on average, occur in a model decade. The seasonal distribution of SSWs is also well simulated with the highest frequency in January (35%). The unprecedented low SSW frequency observed in 1990s from the two reanalyses is also identified in a model decade (1930s). In addition, the overestimated duration of SSW events in the earlier WACCM version is not identified in CESM1-WACCM when compared with the two reanalyses. The model can well reproduce the downward propagation of the stratospheric anomaly signals (i.e., zonal wind, height, temperature) following SSWs. Both the modelling and observational evidences indicate that SSWs are proceeded by the positive Pacific–North America (PNA) and negative Western Pacific (WP) pattern. The negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) develops throughout the SSW life cycle, which is successfully modeled. A cold Eurasian continent–warm North American continent pattern is observed before SSWs at 850 h Pa, while the two continents are anomalously cold after SSWs in both the reanalyses and the model.