Global Climate modelling of Saturn to determine the nature of its equatorial oscillation 

Author(s):  
Deborah Bardet ◽  
Aymeric Spiga ◽  
Sandrine Guerlet

<p><strong>Introduction:</strong> The Saturn's Semi-Annual Oscillation (SSAO) observed by Cassini is a source of debate within the community, because of its similarities (sometimes conflicting) with both the terrestrial Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the terrestrial Semi-Annual Oscillation (SAO). As the QBO, the downward propagation of the SSAO occurs almost to the tropopause (Schinder et al. 2011). In contrast, the half a Saturn year period of the SSAO is advocated for a seasonal forcing and hints the SAO mechanism driving. Moreover, observation of anomalies in warm temperature and high hydrocarbon concentration at winter tropics is interpreted as the downwelling branch of a meridional stratospheric circulation. <br>Using DYNAMICO-Saturn Global Climate Model (GCM) -- with an higher vertical discretization (96 vertical levels from 3x10<sup>5 </sup>to 10<sup>-1 </sup>Pa) than previous works (Spiga et al. 2020, Bardet et al. 2021)  -- we performed simulations lasting at 13 simulated Saturn years, to study Saturn's stratospheric equatorial oscillation, its inter-hemispheric circulation and the driving mechanism connecting them. </p><p><strong>Results:</strong> Firstly, DYNAMICO-Saturn depicts a stratospheric equatorial oscillation of temperature and zonal wind. The new vertical resolution permits to stabilize more the oscillation periodicity and its eastward phase compared to previous study. The period varies between 0.5 and 1 simulated Saturn years. Indeed, because of irregularity in the waves and eddy-to-mean forcings, the downward propagation is carried out by episodes of descent followed by episodes of stagnation at a given level of pressure. The amplitude of the associated temperature oscillation is under-estimated by 10 K compared to the Cassini observations.</p><p>Secondly, DYNAMICO-Saturn also models an inter-hemispheric circulation taking place from the summer tropical latitudes to the winter ones, with a strong subsidence between 20 and 40° in the winter hemisphere. The main subsidence branch is located in the same latitude region as temperature and hydrocarbons anomalies observed by Cassini (Guerlet et al. 2009, 2010, Sinclair et al. 2013, Fletcher et al. 2015 and Sylvestre et al. 2015). Furthermore, eddy-to-mean interaction diagnostics show that the phases of Saturn's equatorial oscillation are controlled by the inter-hemispheric circulation. During the solstices, the cross-equatorial drift of the inter-hemispheric circulation, associated to the forcing of the mid-latitude planetary-scale Rossby waves, drive the equatorial zonal wind to westward direction. In contrast, during the equinoctial overturning of the inter-hemispheric circulation, the residual mean circulation is reduced to an unique ascendance at the equator to permit the transport and eastward moment deposition of Kelvin waves from the troposphere.</p><p><strong>Perspectives:</strong> This present modelling study of the dynamics of Saturn's stratosphere confirms the SAO-like character of the Saturn's equatorial oscillation. However, we will also explore the putative part of the QBO-like character of it. We plan to use this new vertical resolution combine to the subgrid-scale gravity wave parameterization. </p>

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael Castro ◽  
Tushar Mittal ◽  
Stephen Self

<p>The 1883 Krakatau eruption is one of the most well-known historical volcanic eruptions due to its significant global climate impact as well as first recorded observations of various aerosol associated optical and physical phenomena. Although much work has been done on the former by comparison of global climate model predictions/ simulations with instrumental and proxy climate records, the latter has surprisingly not been studied in similar detail. In particular, there is a wealth of observations of vivid red sunsets, blue suns, and other similar features, that can be used to analyze the spatio-temporal dispersal of volcanic aerosols in summer to winter 1883. Thus, aerosol cloud dispersal after the Krakatau eruption can be estimated, bolstered by aerosol cloud behavior as monitored by satellite-based instrument observations after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. This is one of a handful of large historic eruptions where this analysis can be done (using non-climate proxy methods). In this study, we model particle trajectories of the Krakatau eruption cloud using the Hysplit trajectory model and compare our results with our compiled observational dataset (principally using Verbeek 1884, the Royal Society report, and Kiessling 1884).</p><p>In particular, we explore the effect of different atmospheric states - the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) which impacts zonal movement of the stratospheric volcanic plume - to estimate the phase of the QBO in 1883 required for a fast-moving westward cloud. Since this alone is unable to match the observed latitudinal spread of the aerosols, we then explore the impact of an  umbrella cloud (2000 km diameter) that almost certainly formed during such a large eruption. A large umbrella cloud, spreading over ~18 degrees within the duration of the climax of the eruption (6-8 hours), can lead to much quicker latitudinal spread than a point source (vent). We will discuss the results of the combined model (umbrella cloud and correct QBO phase) with historical accounts and observations, as well as previous work on the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. We also consider the likely impacts of water on aerosol concentrations and the relevance of this process for eruptions with possible significant seawater interactions, like Krakatau. We posit that the role of umbrella clouds is an under-appreciated, but significant, process for beginning to model the climatic impacts of large volcanic eruptions.</p>


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-69
Author(s):  
Zane Martin ◽  
Clara Orbe ◽  
Shuguang Wang ◽  
Adam Sobel

AbstractObservational studies show a strong connection between the intraseasonal Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): the boreal winter MJO is stronger, more predictable, and has different teleconnections when the QBO in the lower stratosphere is easterly versus westerly. Despite the strength of the observed connection, global climate models do not produce an MJO-QBO link. Here the authors use a current-generation ocean-atmosphere coupled NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model (Model E2.1) to examine the MJO-QBO link. To represent the QBO with minimal bias, the model zonal mean stratospheric zonal and meridional winds are relaxed to reanalysis fields from 1980-2017. The model troposphere, including the MJO, is allowed to freely evolve. The model with stratospheric nudging captures QBO signals well, including QBO temperature anomalies. However, an ensemble of nudged simulations still lacks an MJO-QBO connection.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-43
Author(s):  
Aaron Match ◽  
Stephan Fueglistaler

AbstractGlobal warming projections of dynamics are less robust than projections of thermodynamics. However, robust aspects of the thermodynamics can be used to constrain some dynamical aspects. This paper argues that tropospheric expansion under global warming (a thermodynamical process) explains changes in the amplitude of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the lower and middle stratosphere (a dynamical process). A theoretical scaling for tropospheric expansion of approximately 6 hPa K−1 is derived, which agrees well with global climate model (GCM) experiments. Using this theoretical scaling, the response of QBO amplitude to global warming is predicted by shifting the climatological QBO amplitude profile upwards by 6 hPa per Kelvin of global warming. In global warming simulations, QBO amplitude in the lower- to mid-stratosphere shifts upwards as predicted by tropospheric expansion. Applied to observations, the tropospheric expansion framework suggests a historical weakening of QBO amplitude at 70 hPa of 3% decade−1 from 1953-2020. This expected weakening trend is half of the 6% decade−1 from 1953-2012 detected and attributed to global warming in a recent study. The previously reported trend was reinforced by record low QBO amplitudes during the mid-2000s, from which the QBO has since recovered. Given the modest weakening expected on physical grounds, past decadal modulations of QBO amplitude are reinterpreted as a hitherto unrecognized source of internal variability. This large internal variability dominates over the global warming signal, such that despite 65 years of observations, there is not yet a statistically significant weakening trend.


2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 1053-1123 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Kanakidou ◽  
J. H. Seinfeld ◽  
S. N. Pandis ◽  
I. Barnes ◽  
F. J. Dentener ◽  
...  

Abstract. The present paper reviews existing knowledge with regard to Organic Aerosol (OA) of importance for global climate modelling and defines critical gaps needed to reduce the involved uncertainties. All pieces required for the representation of OA in a global climate model are sketched out with special attention to Secondary Organic Aerosol (SOA): The emission estimates of primary carbonaceous particles and SOA precursor gases are summarized. The up-to-date understanding of the chemical formation and transformation of condensable organic material is outlined. Knowledge on the hygroscopicity of OA and measurements of optical properties of the organic aerosol constituents are summarized. The mechanisms of interactions of OA with clouds and dry and wet removal processes parameterisations in global models are outlined. This information is synthesized to provide a continuous analysis of the flow from the emitted material to the atmosphere up to the point of the climate impact of the produced organic aerosol. The sources of uncertainties at each step of this process are highlighted as areas that require further studies.


2015 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. F. Scinocca ◽  
V. V. Kharin ◽  
Y. Jiao ◽  
M. W. Qian ◽  
M. Lazare ◽  
...  

Abstract A new approach of coordinated global and regional climate modeling is presented. It is applied to the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) and its parent global climate model CanESM2. CanRCM4 was developed specifically to downscale climate predictions and climate projections made by its parent global model. The close association of a regional climate model (RCM) with a parent global climate model (GCM) offers novel avenues of model development and application that are not typically available to independent regional climate modeling centers. For example, when CanRCM4 is driven by its parent model, driving information for all of its prognostic variables is available (including aerosols and chemical species), significantly improving the quality of their simulation. Additionally, CanRCM4 can be driven by its parent model for all downscaling applications by employing a spectral nudging procedure in CanESM2 designed to constrain its evolution to follow any large-scale driving data. Coordination offers benefit to the development of physical parameterizations and provides an objective means to evaluate the scalability of such parameterizations across a range of spatial resolutions. Finally, coordinating regional and global modeling efforts helps to highlight the importance of assessing RCMs’ value added relative to their driving global models. As a first step in this direction, a framework for identifying appreciable differences in RCM versus GCM climate change results is proposed and applied to CanRCM4 and CanESM2.


2004 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 5855-6024 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Kanakidou ◽  
J. H. Seinfeld ◽  
S. N. Pandis ◽  
I. Barnes ◽  
F. J. Dentener ◽  
...  

Abstract. The present paper reviews existing knowledge with regard to Organic Aerosol (OA) of importance for global climate modelling and defines critical gaps needed to reduce the involved uncertainties. All pieces required for the representation of OA in a global climate model are sketched out with special attention to Secondary Organic Aerosol (SOA): The emission estimates of primary carbonaceous particles and SOA precursor gases are summarized. The up-to-date understanding of the chemical formation and transformation of condensable organic material is outlined. Knowledge on the hygroscopicity of OA and measurements of optical properties of the organic aerosol constituents are summarized. The mechanisms of interactions of OA with clouds and dry and wet removal processes parameterisations in global models are outlined. This information is synthesized to provide a continuous analysis of the flow from the emitted material to the atmosphere up to the point of the climate impact of the produced organic aerosol. The sources of uncertainties at each step of this process are highlighted as areas that require further studies.


2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (20) ◽  
pp. 5175-5189 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. A. Dumas ◽  
G. M. Flato ◽  
R. D. Brown

Abstract Projections of future landfast ice thickness and duration were generated for nine sites in the Canadian Arctic and one site on the Labrador coast with a simple downscaling technique that used a one-dimensional sea ice model driven by observationally based forcing and superimposed projected future climate change from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis global climate model (CGCM2). For the Canadian Arctic sites the downscaling approach indicated a decrease in maximum ice thickness of 30 and 50 cm and a reduction in ice cover duration of 1 and 2 months by 2041–60 and 2081–2100, respectively. In contrast, there is a slight increase in simulated landfast ice thickness and duration at Cartwright in the future due to its sensitivity to snow–ice formation with increased snowfall and to a projected slight cooling over this site (along the Labrador coast) by CGCM2. The magnitude of simulated changes in freeze-up and break-up date was largest for freeze up (e.g., 52 days later at Alert by 2081–2100), and freeze-up date changes exhibited much greater regional variability than break up, which was simulated to be 30 days earlier by 2081–2100 over the Canadian Arctic sites.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patricio Velasquez ◽  
Martina Messmer ◽  
Christoph C. Raible

Abstract. This work presents a new bias-correction method for precipitation that considers orographic characteristics, which makes it flexible to be used under highly different climate conditions, e.g., glacial conditions. The new bias-correction and its performance are presented for Switzerland using a regional climate simulation under perpetual 1990 conditions at 2-km resolution driven by a simulation performed with a global climate model. Comparing the regional simulations with observations, we find a strong seasonal and height dependence of the bias in precipitation commonly observed in regional climate modelling over complex terrain. Thus, we suggest a 3-step correction method consisting of (i) a separation into different orographic characteristics, (ii) correction of low intensity precipitation, and finally (iii) the application of empirical quantile mapping, which is applied to each month separately. Testing different orographic characteristics shows that separating in 400-m height-intervals provides the overall most reasonable correction of the biases in precipitation and additionally at the lowest computational costs. The seasonal precipitation bias induced by the global climate model is fully corrected, whereas some regional biases remain, in particular positive biases in winter over mountains and negative biases in winter and summer in deep valleys and Ticino. The biases over mountains are difficult to judge, as observations over complex terrain are afflicted with uncertainties, which may be more than 30 % above 1500 m a.s.l. A rigorous cross validation, which trains the correction method with independent observations from Germany, Austria and France, exhibits a similar performance compared to just using Switzerland as training and verification region. This illustrates the robustness of the new method. Thus, the new bias-correction provides a flexible tool which is suitable in studies where orography strongly changes, e.g., during glacial times.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zachary Espinosa ◽  
Aditi Sheshadri ◽  
Gerald Cain ◽  
Edwin Gerber ◽  
Kevin DallaSanta

<p>We present a novel, single-column gravity wave parameterization (GWP) that uses machine learning to emulate a physics-based GWP. An artificial neural network (ANN) is trained with output from an idealized atmospheric model and tested in an offline environment, illustrating that an ANN can learn the salient features of gravity wave momentum transport directly from resolved flow variables. We demonstrate that when trained on the westward phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, the ANN can skillfully generate the momentum fluxes associated with the eastward phase. We also show that the meridional and zonal wind components are the only flow variables necessary to predict horizontal momentum fluxes with a globally and temporally averaged R^2 value over 0.8. State-of-the-art GWPs are severely limited by computational constraints and a scarcity of observations for validation. This work constitutes a significant step towards obtaining observationally validated, computationally efficient GWPs in global climate models.</p>


2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 205-231
Author(s):  
Oscar Dimdore-Miles ◽  
Lesley Gray ◽  
Scott Osprey

Abstract. Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are major disruptions of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar vortex and occur on average approximately six times per decade in observation-based records. However, within these records, intervals of significantly higher and lower SSW rates are observed, suggesting the possibility of low-frequency variations in event occurrence. A better understanding of factors that influence this decadal variability may help to improve predictability of NH midlatitude surface climate, through stratosphere–troposphere coupling. In this work, multi-decadal variability of SSW events is examined in a 1000-year pre-industrial simulation of a coupled global climate model. Using a wavelet spectral decomposition method, we show that hiatus events (intervals of a decade or more with no SSWs) and consecutive SSW events (extended intervals with at least one SSW in each year) vary on multi-decadal timescales of periods between 60 and 90 years. Signals on these timescales are present for approximately 450 years of the simulation. We investigate the possible source of these long-term signals and find that the direct impact of variability in tropical sea surface temperatures, as well as the associated Aleutian Low, can account for only a small portion of the SSW variability. Instead, the major influence on long-term SSW variability is associated with long-term variability in amplitude of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The QBO influence is consistent with the well-known Holton–Tan relationship, with SSW hiatus intervals associated with extended periods of particularly strong, deep QBO westerly phases. The results support recent studies that have highlighted the role of vertical coherence in the QBO when considering coupling between the QBO, the polar vortex and tropospheric circulation.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document