scholarly journals Unusual Central Indian Drought of Summer Monsoon 2008: Role of Southern Tropical Indian Ocean Warming

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (19) ◽  
pp. 5163-5174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suryachandra A. Rao ◽  
Hemantkumar S. Chaudhari ◽  
Samir Pokhrel ◽  
B. N. Goswami
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Equatorial Indian Ocean ◽  
Central India ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Indian Ocean Warming ◽  
Normal Rainfall

Abstract While many of the previous positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) years were associated with above (below)-normal monsoon rainfall over central (southern) India during summer monsoon months [June–September (JJAS)], the IOD event in 2008 is associated with below (above)-normal rainfall in many parts of central (southern peninsular) India. Because understanding such regional organization is a key for success in regional prediction, using different datasets and atmospheric model simulations, the reasons for this abnormal behavior of the monsoon in 2008 are explored. Compared to normal positive IOD events, sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall in the southern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) in JJAS 2008 were abnormally high. Downwelling Rossby waves and oceanic heat advection played an important role in warming SST abnormally in the STIO. It was also found that the combined influence of a linear warming trend in the tropical Indian Ocean and warming associated with the IOD have resulted in abnormal warming of the STIO. This abnormal SST warming resulted in enhancement of convection in the southwest tropical Indian Ocean and forced anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the Bay of Bengal and central India, leading to suppressed rainfall over this region in JJAS 2008. The above mechanism is tested by conducting several model sensitivity experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). These experiments confirmed that the subsidence over central India and the Bay of Bengal was forced mainly by the anomalous warming in the STIO region driven by coupled ocean–atmosphere processes. This study provides the first evidence of combined Indian Ocean warming, associated with global warming, and IOD-related warming influence on Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The combined influence may force below-normal rainfall over central India by inducing strong convection in the STIO region. The conventional seesaw in convection between the Indian subcontinent and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean may shift to the central equatorial Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal if the central Indian Ocean consistently warms in the global warming scenario.

Tropical Indian Ocean Basin Warming and East Asian Summer Monsoon: A Multiple AGCM Study

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (22) ◽  
pp. 6080-6088 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuanglin Li ◽  
Jian Lu ◽  
Gang Huang ◽  
Kaiming Hu
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Ocean Warming ◽  
Indian Ocean Warming ◽  
Asian Summer

Abstract A basin-scale warming is the leading mode of tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability on interannual time scales, and it is also the prominent feature of the interdecadal SST trend in recent decades. The influence of the warming on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is investigated through ensemble experiments of several atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The results from five AGCMs consistently suggest that near the surface, the Indian Ocean warming forces an anticyclonic anomaly over the subtropical western Pacific, intensifying the southwesterly winds to East China; and in the upper troposphere, it forces a Gill-type response with the intensified South Asian high, both favoring the enhancement of the EASM. These processes are argued to contribute to the stronger EASM during the summer following the peak of El Niño than monsoons in other years. These model results also suggest that tropical Indian Ocean warming may not have a causal relationship to the synchronous weakening of EASM on interdecadal time scales.

scholarly journals Sub-divisional summer monsoon rainfall over India in relation to low pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal and adjoining land regions during 1982-1999

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 327-338
Author(s):  
M. MOHAPATRA
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
West Coast ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Central India ◽  
Low Pressure ◽  
Seasonal Rainfall ◽  
West Central ◽  
The Impact

A study is undertaken to find out characteristic features of relationship of the low pressure system (LPS) over the Bay of Bengal and adjoining land regions with the rainfall over different meteorological sub-divisions of India during summer monsoon season (June-September). For this purpose, rainfall over 35 meteorological sub-divisions in India and LPS days over west central (WC) Bay, northwest (NW) Bay, northeast (NE) Bay, Bangladesh (BDS), Gangetic West Bengal (GWB), Orissa, north coastal Andhra Pradesh (NCAP), east Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh (EMPC) and Jharkhand (JKD) during different monsoon months and the season as a whole over a period of 18 years (1982-1999) are analysed. There is large month to month variation in the impact of the LPS on the sub-divisional monsoon rainfall over India. However, the results presented in the study including developed correlation maps may be helpful to predict 24 hours rainfall based on the location of the LPS and associated monsoon trough.   The frequent development and persistence of LPS over NW Bay are favourable for higher seasonal monsoon rainfall over east central India. The development and persistence of LPS over WC Bay adversely affect the seasonal rainfall over this region. On the other hand, the frequent development and persistence of LPS over WC Bay and its subsequent westward movement across NCAP are favourable for higher seasonal rainfall over the peninsular region excluding west coast. The seasonal rainfall over northwest India decreases with increase in LPS days over EMPC. The seasonal rainfall over west central India, northeast India and west coast are not significantly related with the number of LPS days over the regions under consideration.

scholarly journals Principal component analysis of monthly mean Area surface temperature over the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and north Indian Ocean for two Contrasting sets of monsoon years

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-76
Author(s):  
T. K. BALAKRISHNAN ◽  
A. K. JASWAL ◽  
S.S.. SINGH ◽  
H. N. SRIVASTAVA
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Arabian Sea ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Equatorial Indian Ocean ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
North Indian Ocean ◽  
Orthogonal Function ◽  
The North ◽  
Extreme North

The spatial distribution and temporal variation of the monthly mean SSTA over the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and the north Indian Ocean were investigated for a set of contrasting years of monsoon over the period 1961-80 for months April through July using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) technique with a view to identify regions that are significantly related to the monsoon rainfall. Over 75% of the total variance is, explained by the first mode EOF. SSTA over the north and northeast Arabian Sea during pre-monsoon months were found to be possible indicators of the ensuing monsoon activity. The higher eigen vectors in May over northeast Arabian Sea may signal good monsoon and vice versa. In June there is a marked contrast in the distribution of SST over the Arabian Sea between the two sets of the years the eastern Arabian Sea IS warmer for the deficient monsoon years while the entire Arabian Sea except over the extreme north Arabian Sea is cool during good monsoon years. There is formation of SSTA over the equatorial Indian Ocean area close to Indonesian island commencing from May which is more marked in June and is positively correlated with seasonal rainfall activity over India.  

scholarly journals Extremes of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, ENSO and equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation

2004 ◽  
Vol 31 (12) ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
Sulochana Gadgil ◽  
P. N. Vinayachandran ◽  
P. A. Francis ◽  
Siddhartha Gadgil
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Equatorial Indian Ocean ◽  
Summer Monsoon Rainfall

scholarly journals Simulation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall, interannual variability and teleconnections: Evaluation of CMIP6 models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kavirajan Rajendran ◽  
Sajani Surendran ◽  
Stella Jes Varghese ◽  
Anjali Sathyanath
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Inverse Relationship ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Equatorial Indian Ocean ◽  
Summer Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Model Intercomparison

Abstract We analyse the performance of global climate models of 6th generation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in simulating climatological summer monsoon rainfall over India, interannual variability (IAV) of all-India summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and its teleconnections with rainfall variability over equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans. The multimodel ensemble mean (MME) of 61 CMIP6 models shows the best skill in simulating mean monsoon rainfall over India compared to the MMEs of 6th generation atmosphere-only models (AMIP6) and the previous generations of Atmospheric and Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (AMIPs and CMIPs). Systematic improvement and reduction in bias are evident from lower to higher AMIPs/CMIPs. Still, there exists dry bias over a narrow region of the monsoon zone of central India besides wet and cold bias over the surrounding oceans. The persistence of errors in atmosphere-only models hints that the source of errors could be with atmosphere models. Fifteen CMIP6 models selected through objective criteria, perform the best in simulating mean monsoon, IAV of ISMR, the strong inverse relationship between ISMR and Boreal summer El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the inverse relationship between all-India rainfall and north-west tropical Pacific rainfall in June. Several models reproduce the dipole structure of Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) with the centres over western and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. But, ISMR-EQUINOO relationship in many of them is opposite to the observed. Our analysis implies the need for capturing ISMR-EQUINOO link to improve the simulation of IAV of ISMR which is crucial for reliable monsoon prediction and projection.

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