Can the Increase in the Eddy Length Scale under Global Warming Cause the Poleward Shift of the Jet Streams?

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (14) ◽  
pp. 3764-3780 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Kidston ◽  
G. K. Vallis ◽  
S. M. Dean ◽  
J. A. Renwick
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Phase Speed ◽  
Zonal Flow ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Length Scale ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Jet Streams ◽  
Barotropic Model ◽  
Poleward Shift

Abstract The question of whether an increase in the atmospheric eddy length scale may cause a poleward shift of the midlatitude jet streams is addressed. An increase in the length scale of the eddy reduces its zonal phase speed and so causes eddies to dissipate farther from the jet core. If the eddy dissipation region on the poleward flank of the jet overlaps with the eddy source latitudes, shifting this dissipation to higher latitudes will alter which latitudes are a net source of baroclinic eddies, and hence the eddy-driven jet stream may shift poleward. This behavior does not affect the equatorward flank of the jet in the same way because the dissipation region on the equatorward flank is well separated from the source latitudes. An experiment with a barotropic model is presented in which an increase in the length scale of a midlatitude perturbation results in a poleward shift in the acceleration of the zonal flow. Initial investigations indicate that this behavior is also important in both observational data and the output of comprehensive general circulation models (GCMs). A simplified GCM is used to show that the latitude of the eddy-driven jet is well correlated with the eddy length scale. It is argued that the increase in the eddy length scale causes the poleward shift of the jet in these experiments, rather than vice versa.

A Dynamical Interpretation of the Poleward Shift of the Jet Streams in Global Warming Scenarios

2011 ◽  
Vol 68 (6) ◽  
pp. 1253-1272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gwendal Rivière
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Wave Breaking ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Length Scale ◽  
Simple Explanation ◽  
Jet Streams ◽  
Momentum Fluxes ◽  
Poleward Shift

Abstract The role played by enhanced upper-tropospheric baroclinicity in the poleward shift of the jet streams in global warming scenarios is investigated. Major differences between the twentieth- and twenty-first-century simulations are first detailed using two coupled climate model outputs. There is a poleward shift of the eddy-driven jets, an increase in intensity and poleward shift of the storm tracks, a strengthening of the upper-tropospheric baroclinicity, and an increase in the eddy length scale. These properties are more obvious in the Southern Hemisphere. A strengthening of the poleward eddy momentum fluxes and a relative decrease in frequency of cyclonic wave breaking compared to anticyclonic wave breaking events is also observed. Then, baroclinic instability in the three-level quasigeostrophic model is studied analytically and offers a simple explanation for the increased eddy spatial scale. It is shown that if the potential vorticity gradient changes its sign below the midlevel (i.e., if the critical level is located in the lower troposphere as in the real atmosphere), long and short wavelengths become respectively more and less unstable when the upper-tropospheric baroclinicity is increased. Finally, a simple dry atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) is used to confirm the key role played by the upper-level baroclinicity by employing a normal-mode approach and long-term simulations forced by a temperature relaxation. The eddy length scale is shown to largely determine the nature of the breaking: long (short) wavelengths break more anticyclonically (cyclonically). When the upper-tropospheric baroclinicity is reinforced, long wavelengths become more unstable, break more strongly anticyclonically, and push the jet more poleward. Short wavelengths being less unstable, they are less efficient in pushing the jet equatorward. This provides an interpretation for the increased poleward eddy momentum fluxes and thus the poleward shift of the eddy-driven jets.

A Mechanism for the Effect of Tropospheric Jet Structure on the Annular Mode–Like Response to Stratospheric Forcing

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (7) ◽  
pp. 2152-2170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isla R. Simpson ◽  
Michael Blackburn ◽  
Joanna D. Haigh
Keyword(s):  
Momentum Flux ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Lower Latitude ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Zonal Winds ◽  
Feedback Strength ◽  
Poleward Shift ◽  
Climate Forcings ◽  
Jet Structure

Abstract For many climate forcings the dominant response of the extratropical circulation is a latitudinal shift of the tropospheric midlatitude jets. The magnitude of this response appears to depend on climatological jet latitude in general circulation models (GCMs): lower-latitude jets exhibit a larger shift. The reason for this latitude dependence is investigated for a particular forcing, heating of the equatorial stratosphere, which shifts the jet poleward. Spinup ensembles with a simplified GCM are used to examine the evolution of the response for five different jet structures. These differ in the latitude of the eddy-driven jet but have similar subtropical zonal winds. It is found that lower-latitude jets exhibit a larger response due to stronger tropospheric eddy–mean flow feedbacks. A dominant feedback responsible for enhancing the poleward shift is an enhanced equatorward refraction of the eddies, resulting in an increased momentum flux, poleward of the low-latitude critical line. The sensitivity of feedback strength to jet structure is associated with differences in the coherence of this behavior across the spectrum of eddy phase speeds. In the configurations used, the higher-latitude jets have a wider range of critical latitude locations. This reduces the coherence of the momentum flux anomalies associated with different phase speeds, with low phase speeds opposing the effect of high phase speeds. This suggests that, for a given subtropical zonal wind strength, the latitude of the eddy-driven jet affects the feedback through its influence on the width of the region of westerly winds and the range of critical latitudes on the equatorward flank of the jet.

A Series of Zonal Jets Embedded in the Broad Zonal Flows in the Pacific Obtained in Eddy-Permitting Ocean General Circulation Models

2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 474-488 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hideyuki Nakano ◽  
Hiroyasu Hasumi
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Bottom Topography ◽  
Zonal Flow ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Wind Forcing ◽  
Zonal Flows ◽  
Zonal Jets ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Models ◽  
Ocean General Circulation

Abstract A series of zonal currents in the Pacific Ocean is investigated using eddy-permitting ocean general circulation models. The zonal currents in the subsurface are classified into two parts: one is a series of broad zonal flows that has the meridional pattern slanting poleward with increasing depth and the other is finescale zonal jets with the meridional scale of 3°–5° formed in each broad zonal flow. The basic pattern for the broad zonal flows is similar between the coarse-resolution model and the eddy-permitting model and is thought to be the response to the wind forcing. A part of the zonal jets embedded in each zonal flow is explained by the anomalous local wind forcing. Most of them, however, seem to be mainly created by the rectification of turbulent processes on a β plane (the Rhines effect), and zonal jets in this study have common features with the zonally elongated flows obtained in previous modeling studies conducted in idealized basins. The position of zonal jets is not stable when the ocean floor is flat, whereas it oscillates only within a few degrees under realistic bottom topography.

scholarly journals Influence of the SST Rise on Baroclinic Instability Wave Activity under an Aquaplanet Condition

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (8) ◽  
pp. 2272-2287 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chihiro Kodama ◽  
Toshiki Iwasaki
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Temperature Gradient ◽  
Wave Energy ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Baroclinic Instability ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Instability Wave ◽  
Meridional Temperature Gradient ◽  
Poleward Shift

Abstract The influence of the sea surface temperature (SST) rise on extratropical baroclinic instability wave activity is investigated using an aquaplanet general circulation model (GCM). Two types of runs were performed: the High+3 run, in which the SST is increased by 3 K only at high latitudes, and the All+3 run, in which the SST is increased uniformly by 3 K all over the globe. These SST rises were intended to reproduce essential changes of the surface air temperature due to global warming. Wave activity changes are analyzed and discussed from the viewpoint of the energetics. In the High+3 run, midlatitude meridional temperature gradient is decreased in the lower troposphere and the wave energy is suppressed in the extratropics. In the All+3 run, although the large tropical latent heat release greatly enhances the midlatitude meridional temperature gradient in the upper troposphere, global mean wave energy does not change significantly. These results suggest that the low-level baroclinicity is much more important for baroclinic instability wave activity than upper-level baroclinicity. A poleward shift of wave energy, seen in global warming simulations, is evident in the All+3 run. Wave energy generation analysis suggests that the poleward shift of wave activity may be caused by the enhanced and poleward-shifted baroclinicity in the higher latitudes and the increased static stability in the lower latitudes. Poleward expansion of the high-baroclinicity region is still an open question.

scholarly journals Forced Annular Mode Patterns in a Simple Atmospheric General Circulation Model

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (10) ◽  
pp. 3611-3626 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Ring ◽  
R. Alan Plumb
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Zonal Flow ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Dominant Mode ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
Annular Modes ◽  
Symmetric Version ◽  
Direct Forcing ◽  
Eddy Fluxes

Abstract Previous studies using simplified general circulation models have shown that “annular modes” arise as the dominant mode of variability. A simple GCM is used here to explore to what extent these modes are also the preferred response of the system to generic forcing. A number of trials are conducted under which the model is subjected to an artificial, zonally symmetric angular momentum forcing, and the climatologies of these trials are compared to that of the control. The forcing location is varied among the several trials. It is found that the changes in the model’s climatology are generally annular mode–like, as long as the imposed forcing projects strongly upon the annular modes of the unforced model. The role of changes to the eddy–zonal flow feedback versus the action of direct forcing is also considered through the use of a zonally symmetric version of the model. It is found that the direct responses to forcing are insufficient to capture either the strength or the structure of the annular mode responses. Instead, the changes in eddy fluxes are needed to produce the correct responses.

scholarly journals Tibetan High and Upper Tropospheric Tropical Circulations during Northern Summer

1973 ◽  
Vol 54 (12) ◽  
pp. 1234-1250 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. N. Krishnamurti ◽  
S. M. Daggupaty ◽  
Jay Fein ◽  
Masao Kanamitsu ◽  
John D. Lee
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Zonal Flow ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Initial Time ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Motion Field ◽  
High Pressure Cell ◽  
Northern Summer ◽  
Zonal Wavenumber

The zonally asymmetric climatology of the tropical large-scale motion field is an interesting GARP topic. Understanding of the maintenance of various quasi-stationary features will be a challenging problem during the FGGE (the First GARP Global Experiment) and Monex (the Monsoon Experiment). In this paper we present some current thoughts that are relevant to the climatology of the tropical upper troposphere during the northern summer. A review of some of the results from various numerical general circulation models and theoretical studies is presented for northern summer conditions. The relative success or failure of simulations of 200-mb climatology is discussed. It is pointed out that a proper simulation of the belt of anticyclones over the Asian highlands is somewhat crucial for a proper simulation of the summer climatology over the rest of the tropics. Observations of the semipermanence of the Tibetan high pressure cell during northern summer at 200 mb suggests that it acts somewhat like a barrier. In order to illustrate this we consider a problem related to the evolution of barotropic non-divergent flows past a barrier. The flows are initially zonal, with speeds varying in the north-south direction according to northern summer observations. The barrier, whose shape is based on observations of a blocking thermal high, is impulsively introduced at initial time. The flows are kept zonal at frictionless walls at 25S and 45N. The initial north-south distribution of the zonal flows is shown to have no inflection point in its profile, thus it does not satisfy the necessary condition for barotropic instability. The presence of an impulsively introduced barrier, however, results in the evolution of transient as well as steady wave motions in long term numerical integrations. It is shown that a 30-day mean motion field contains many of the well known climatological features such as the African high, the mid-Atlantic trough, the mid-Pacific trough, the Mexican high and a weak easterly jet south of the Tibetan high. Calculations of kinetic energy exchanges between waves and zonal flow in this simple experiment is compared with corresponding calculations for tropical observations and recent general circulation experiments carried out by Abbott. The impulsively introduced barrier simulates an energy source for zonal wavenumber 1, quite similar to observations in a tropical belt. Although this experiment is fairly crude, it is found to be very illustrative in many respects. Many diverse experiments along these lines can be carried out to reveal various aspects of atmospheric circulations.

scholarly journals Assessing the response of groundwater quantity and travel time distribution to 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees global warming in a mesoscale central German basin

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miao Jing ◽  
Rohini Kumar ◽  
Falk Heße ◽  
Stephan Thober ◽  
Oldrich Rakovec ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Travel Time ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Groundwater Model ◽  
Groundwater System ◽  
Ensemble Simulations ◽  
Regional Groundwater ◽  
German Basin

Abstract. Groundwater is the biggest single source of high-quality fresh water worldwide, which is also continuously threatened by the changing climate. This paper is designed to investigate the response of regional groundwater system to the climate change under three global warming levels (1.5, 2, and 3 °C) in a central German basin (Nägelstedt). This investigation is conducted by deploying an integrated modeling workflow that consists of a mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) and a fully-distributed groundwater model OpenGeoSys (OGS). mHM is forced by five general circulation models under three representative concentration pathways. The diffuse recharges estimated by mHM are used as outer forcings of the OGS groundwater model to compute changes in groundwater levels and travel time distributions. Simulation results indicate that under future climate scenarios, groundwater recharges and levels are expected to increase slightly. Meanwhile, the mean travel time is expected to decrease compared to the historical average. However, the ensemble simulations do not all agree on the sign of relative change. The ensemble simulations do not show a systematic relationship between the predicted change and the warming level, but they indicate an increased variability in predicted changes with the enhanced warming level from 1.5 to 3 °C. This study indicates that a higher warming level may introduce more uncertain and extreme events for the studied regional groundwater system.

scholarly journals The Troposphere-to-Stratosphere Transition in Kinetic Energy Spectra and Nonlinear Spectral Fluxes as Seen in ECMWF Analyses

2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (2) ◽  
pp. 669-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. H. Burgess ◽  
Andre R. Erler ◽  
Theodore G. Shepherd
Keyword(s):  
Kinetic Energy ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Zonal Flow ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Energy Spectra ◽  
Spectral Break ◽  
Energy Peak ◽  
Transient Energy ◽  
Aircraft Data

Abstract Global horizontal wavenumber kinetic energy spectra and spectral fluxes of rotational kinetic energy and enstrophy are computed for a range of vertical levels using a T799 ECMWF operational analysis. Above 250 hPa, the kinetic energy spectra exhibit a distinct break between steep and shallow spectral ranges, reminiscent of dual power-law spectra seen in aircraft data and high-resolution general circulation models. The break separates a large-scale “balanced” regime in which rotational flow strongly dominates divergent flow and a mesoscale “unbalanced” regime where divergent energy is comparable to or larger than rotational energy. Between 230 and 100 hPa, the spectral break shifts to larger scales (from n = 60 to n = 20, where n is spherical harmonic index) as the balanced component of the flow preferentially decays. The location of the break remains fairly stable throughout the stratosphere. The spectral break in the analysis occurs at somewhat larger scales than the break seen in aircraft data. Nonlinear spectral fluxes defined for the rotational component of the flow maximize between about 300 and 200 hPa. Large-scale turbulence thus centers on the extratropical tropopause region, within which there are two distinct mechanisms of upscale energy transfer: eddy–eddy interactions sourcing the transient energy peak in synoptic scales, and zonal mean–eddy interactions forcing the zonal flow. A well-defined downscale enstrophy flux is clearly evident at these altitudes. In the stratosphere, the transient energy peak moves to planetary scales and zonal mean–eddy interactions become dominant.

scholarly journals Climate change and agricultural productivity in Brazil: future perspectives

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 581-602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juliano Assunção ◽  
Flávia Chein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Agricultural Productivity ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Perspectives ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

AbstractThis paper evaluates the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Cross-sectional variation in climate among Brazilian municipalities is used to estimate an equation in which geographical attributes determine agricultural productivity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions based on atmosphere–ocean, coupled with general circulation models (for 2030–2049), are used to simulate the impacts of climate change. Our estimates suggest that global warming under the current technological standards is expected to decrease the agricultural output per hectare in Brazil by 18 per cent, with the effects on municipalities ranging from−40 to+15 per cent.

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