Environmental Factors in the Upscale Growth and Longevity of MCSs Derived from Rapid Update Cycle Analyses

Abstract Composite environments of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are produced from Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) analyses to explore the differences between rapidly and slowly developing MCSs as well as the differences ahead of long- and short-lived MCSs. The composite analyses capture the synoptic-scale features known to be associated with MCSs and depict the inertial oscillation of the nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ), which remains strong but tends to veer away from decaying MCSs. The composite first storms environment for the rapidly developing MCSs contains a stronger LLJ located closer to the first storms region, much more conditional instability, potential instability, and energy available for downdrafts, smaller 3–10-km vertical wind shear, and smaller geostrophic potential vorticity in the upper troposphere, when compared to the environment for the slowly developing MCSs. The weaker shear above 3 km for the rapidly developing MCSs is consistent with supercell or discrete cell modes being less likely in weaker deep-layer shear and the greater potential for a cold pool to trigger convection when the shear is confined to lower levels. Furthermore, these results suggest that low values of upper-level potential vorticity may signal a rapid transition to an MCS. The composite environment ahead of the genesis of long-lived MCSs contains a broader LLJ, a better-defined frontal zone, stronger low-level frontogenesis, deeper moisture, and stronger wind shear above 2 km, when compared to short-lived MCSs. The larger shear above 2 km for the long-lived MCSs is consistent with the importance of shear elevated above the ground to help organize and maintain convection that feeds on the elevated unstable parcels after dark and is indicative of the enhanced baroclinicity ahead of the MCSs.

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An Observational Study of Mesoscale Convective Systems with Heavy Rainfall over the Korean Peninsula

Weather and Forecasting ◽

10.1175/waf912.1 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 21 (2) ◽

pp. 125-148 ◽

Cited By ~ 33

Author(s):

Hyung Woo Kim ◽

Dong Kyou Lee

Keyword(s):

Observational Study ◽

Korean Peninsula ◽

Wind Shear ◽

Heavy Rainfall ◽

Vertical Wind Shear ◽

Vertical Wind ◽

Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽

Low Level ◽

Convective Systems ◽

Mesoscale Convective

Abstract A heavy rainfall event induced by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) occurred over the middle Korean Peninsula from 25 to 27 July 1996. This heavy rainfall caused a large loss of life and property damage as a result of flash floods and landslides. An observational study was conducted using Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from 0930 UTC 26 July to 0303 UTC 27 July 1996. Dominant synoptic features in this case had many similarities to those in previous studies, such as the presence of a quasi-stationary frontal system, a weak upper-level trough, sufficient moisture transportation by a low-level jet from a tropical storm landfall, strong potential and convective instability, and strong vertical wind shear. The thermodynamic characteristics and wind shear presented favorable conditions for a heavy rainfall occurrence. The early convective cells in the MCSs initiated over the coastal area, facilitated by the mesoscale boundaries of the land–sea contrast, rain–no rain regions, saturated–unsaturated soils, and steep horizontal pressure and thermal gradients. Two MCSs passed through the heavy rainfall regions during the investigation period. The first MCS initiated at 1000 UTC 26 July and had the characteristics of a supercell storm with small amounts of precipitation, the appearance of a mesocyclone with tilting storm, a rear-inflow jet at the midlevel of the storm, and fast forward propagation. The second MCS initiated over the upstream area of the first MCS at 1800 UTC 26 July and had the characteristics of a multicell storm, such as a broken areal-type squall line, slow or quasi-stationary backward propagation, heavy rainfall in a concentrated area due to the merging of the convective storms, and a stagnated cluster system. These systems merged and stagnated because their movement was blocked by the Taebaek Mountain Range, and they continued to develop because of the vertical wind shear resulting from a low-level easterly inflow.

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Observational Analysis of the Predictability of Mesoscale Convective Systems

Weather and Forecasting ◽

10.1175/waf1012.1 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 22 (4) ◽

pp. 813-838 ◽

Cited By ~ 33

Author(s):

Israel L. Jirak ◽

William R. Cotton

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Wind Shear ◽

Vertical Wind Shear ◽

The United States ◽

Vertical Wind ◽

Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽

Convective Initiation ◽

Low Level ◽

Convective Systems ◽

Mesoscale Convective

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) have a large influence on the weather over the central United States during the warm season by generating essential rainfall and severe weather. To gain insight into the predictability of these systems, the precursor environments of several hundred MCSs across the United States were reviewed during the warm seasons of 1996–98. Surface analyses were used to identify initiating mechanisms for each system, and North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data were used to examine the environment prior to MCS development. Similarly, environments unable to support organized convective systems were also investigated for comparison with MCS precursor environments. Significant differences were found between environments that support MCS development and those that do not support convective organization. MCSs were most commonly initiated by frontal boundaries; however, features that enhance convective initiation are often not sufficient for MCS development, as the environment needs also to be supportive for the development and organization of long-lived convective systems. Low-level warm air advection, low-level vertical wind shear, and convective instability were found to be the most important parameters in determining whether concentrated convection would undergo upscale growth into an MCS. Based on these results, an index was developed for use in forecasting MCSs. The MCS index assigns a likelihood of MCS development based on three terms: 700-hPa temperature advection, 0–3-km vertical wind shear, and the lifted index. An evaluation of the MCS index revealed that it exhibits features consistent with common MCS characteristics and is reasonably accurate in forecasting MCSs, especially given that convective initiation has occurred, offering the possibility of usefulness in operational forecasting.

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Multiscale Processes Enabling the Longevity and Daytime Persistence of a Nocturnal Mesoscale Convective System

Monthly Weather Review ◽

10.1175/mwr-d-18-0233.1 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 147 (2) ◽

pp. 733-761 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Manda B. Chasteen ◽

Steven E. Koch ◽

David B. Parsons

Keyword(s):

Great Plains ◽

Vertical Wind Shear ◽

Mesoscale Convective System ◽

Cold Pool ◽

Convective System ◽

Near Surface ◽

Low Level ◽

Convective Systems ◽

Mesoscale Convective ◽

Unstable Environment

Abstract Nocturnal mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) frequently develop over the Great Plains in the presence of a nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ), which contributes to convective maintenance by providing a source of instability, convergence, and low-level vertical wind shear. Although these nocturnal MCSs often dissipate during the morning, many persist into the following afternoon despite the cessation of the LLJ with the onset of solar heating. The environmental factors enabling the postsunrise persistence of nocturnal convection are currently not well understood. A thorough investigation into the processes supporting the longevity and daytime persistence of an MCS was conducted using routine observations, RAP analyses, and a WRF-ARW simulation. Elevated nocturnal convection developed in response to enhanced frontogenesis, which quickly grew upscale into a severe quasi-linear convective system (QLCS). The western portion of this QLCS reorganized into a bow echo with a pronounced cold pool and ultimately an organized leading-line, trailing-stratiform MCS as it moved into an increasingly unstable environment. Differential advection resulting from the interaction of the nocturnal LLJ with the topography of west Texas established considerable heterogeneity in moisture, CAPE, and CIN, which influenced the structure and evolution of the MCS. An inland-advected moisture plume significantly increased near-surface CAPE during the nighttime over central Texas, while the environment over southeastern Texas abruptly destabilized following the commencement of surface heating and downward moisture transport. The unique topography of the southern plains and the close proximity to the Gulf of Mexico provided an environment conducive to the postsunrise persistence of the organized MCS.

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Effects of Upper-Level Shear on the Structure and Maintenance of Strong Quasi-Linear Mesoscale Convective Systems

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences ◽

10.1175/jas3681.1 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 63 (4) ◽

pp. 1231-1252 ◽

Cited By ~ 83

Author(s):

Michael C. Coniglio ◽

David J. Stensrud ◽

Louis J. Wicker

Keyword(s):

Three Dimensional ◽

Vertical Wind Shear ◽

Vertical Displacement ◽

Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽

Cold Pool ◽

Density Currents ◽

3D Simulations ◽

Convective Systems ◽

Mesoscale Convective ◽

Upper Level

Abstract Recent observational studies have shown that strong midlatitude mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) tend to decay as they move into environments with less instability and smaller deep-layer vertical wind shear. These observed shear profiles that contain significant upper-level shear are often different from the shear profiles considered to be the most favorable for the maintenance of strong, long-lived convective systems in some past idealized simulations. Thus, to explore the role of upper-level shear in strong MCS environments, a set of two-dimensional (2D) simulations of density currents within a dry, statically neutral environment is used to quantify the dependence of lifting along an idealized cold pool on the upper-level shear. A set of three-dimensional (3D) simulations of MCSs is produced to gauge the effects of the upper-level shear in a more realistic framework. Results from the 2D experiments show that the addition of upper-level shear to a wind profile with weak to moderate low-level shear increases the vertical displacement of parcels despite a decrease in the vertical velocity along the cold pool interface. Parcels that are elevated above the surface (1–2 km) overturn and are responsible for the deep lifting in the deep-shear environments, while the surface-based parcels typically are lifted through the cold pool region in a rearward-sloping path. This deep overturning helps to maintain the leading convection and greatly increases the size and total precipitation output of the convective systems in more complex 3D simulations, even in the presence of 3D structures. These results show that the shear profile throughout the entire troposphere must be considered to gain a more complete understanding of the structure and maintenance of strong midlatitude MCSs.

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The Role of Upper-Level Coupling on Great Plains Low-Level Jet Structure and Variability

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences ◽

10.1175/jas-d-20-0059.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 77 (12) ◽

pp. 4317-4335

Author(s):

D. Alex Burrows ◽

Craig R. Ferguson ◽

Lance F. Bosart

Keyword(s):

Great Plains ◽

Atmospheric Stability ◽

Warm Season ◽

Inertial Oscillation ◽

Low Level ◽

Convective Systems ◽

Mesoscale Convective ◽

Southern Central ◽

Low Level Jet ◽

Upper Level

AbstractThe Great Plains (GP) southerly nocturnal low-level jet (GPLLJ) is a dominant contributor to the region’s warm-season (May–September) mean and extreme precipitation, wind energy generation, and severe weather outbreaks—including mesoscale convective systems. The spatiotemporal structure, variability, and impact of individual GPLLJ events are closely related to their degree of upper-level synoptic coupling, which varies from strong coupling in synoptic trough–ridge environments to weak coupling in quiescent, synoptic ridge environments. Here, we apply an objective dynamic classification of GPLLJ upper-level coupling and fully characterize strongly coupled (C) and relatively uncoupled (UC) GPLLJs from the perspective of the ground-based observer. Through composite analyses of C and UC GPLLJ event samples taken from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Coupled Earth Reanalysis of the twentieth century (CERA-20C), we address how the frequency of these jet types, as well as their inherent weather- and climate-relevant characteristics—including wind speed, direction, and shear; atmospheric stability; and precipitation—vary on diurnal and monthly time scales across the southern, central, and northern subregions of the GP. It is shown that C and UC GPLLJ events have similar diurnal phasing, but the diurnal amplitude is much greater for UC GPLLJs. C GPLLJs tend to have a faster and more elevated jet nose, less low-level wind shear, and enhanced CAPE and precipitation. UC GPLLJs undergo a larger inertial oscillation (Blackadar mechanism) for all subregions, and C GPLLJs have greater geostrophic forcing (Holton mechanism) in the southern and northern GP. The results underscore the need to differentiate between C and UC GPLLJs in future seasonal forecast and climate prediction activities.

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A numerical study of convection in rainbands of Typhoon Morakot (2009) with extreme rainfall: roles of pressure perturbations with low-level wind maxima

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ◽

10.5194/acpd-15-8479-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 15 (6) ◽

pp. 8479-8523

Author(s):

C.-C. Wang ◽

H.-C. Kuo ◽

R. H. Johnson ◽

C.-Y. Lee ◽

S.-Y. Huang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Wind Shear ◽

Vertical Wind Shear ◽

Extreme Rainfall ◽

Vertical Wind ◽

Cold Pool ◽

Rear Side ◽

Gradient Force ◽

Typhoon Morakot ◽

Low Level ◽

Pressure Perturbations

Abstract. This paper investigates the formation and evolution of deep convection inside the east–west oriented rainbands associated with a low-level jet (LLJ) in Typhoon Morakot (2009). With typhoon center to the northwest of Taiwan, the westerly LLJ was resulted from the interaction of typhoon circulation with the southwest monsoon flow, which supplied the water vapor for the extreme rainfall (of ~1000 mm) over southwestern Taiwan. The Cloud-Resolving Storm Simulator with 1 km grid spacing was used to simulate the event, and it successfully reproduced the slow-moving rainbands, the embedded cells, and the dynamics of merger and back-building (BB) on 8 August as observed. Our model results suggest that the intense convection interacted strongly with the westerly LLJ that provided reversed vertical wind shear below and above the jet core. Inside mature cells, significant dynamical pressure perturbations (pd') are induced with positive (negative) pd' at the western (eastern) flank of the updraft near the surface and a reversed pattern aloft (>2 km). This configuration produced an upward directed pressure gradient force (PGF) to the rear side and favors new development to the west, which further leads to cell merger as the mature cells slowdown in eastward propagation. The strong updrafts also acted to elevate the jet and enhance the local vertical wind shear at the rear flank. Additional analysis reveals that the upward PGF there is resulted mainly by the shearing effect but also by the extension of upward acceleration at low levels. In the horizontal, the upstream-directed PGF induced by the rear-side positive pd' near the surface is much smaller, but can provide additional convergence for BB development upstream. Finally, the cold-pool mechanism for BB appears to be not important in the Morakot case, as the conditions for strong evaporation in downdrafts do not exist.

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Origin and Maintenance of the Long-Lasting, Outer Mesoscale Convective System in Typhoon Fengshen (2008)

Monthly Weather Review ◽

10.1175/mwr-d-14-00036.1 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 142 (8) ◽

pp. 2838-2859 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Buo-Fu Chen ◽

Russell L. Elsberry ◽

Cheng-Shang Lee

Keyword(s):

Inner Core ◽

Outer Region ◽

Vertical Wind Shear ◽

Leading Edge ◽

Cold Pool ◽

Convective System ◽

Rain Area ◽

Characteristic Structure ◽

Low Level ◽

Mesoscale Convective

Abstract Outer mesoscale convective systems (OMCSs) are long-lasting, heavy rainfall events separate from the inner-core rainfall that have previously been shown to occur in 22% of western North Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs). Environmental conditions accompanying the development of 62 OMCSs are contrasted with the conditions in TCs that do not include an OMCS. The development, kinematic structure, and maintenance mechanisms of an OMCS that occurred to the southwest of Typhoon Fengshen (2008) are studied with Weather Research and Forecasting Model simulations. Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) observations and the simulations indicate the low-level TC circulation was deflected around the Luzon terrain and caused an elongated, north–south moisture band to be displaced to the west such that the OMCS develops in the outer region of Fengshen rather than spiraling into the center. Strong northeasterly vertical wind shear contributed to frictional convergence in the boundary layer, and then the large moisture flux convergence in this moisture band led to the downstream development of the OMCS when the band interacted with the monsoon flow. As the OMCS developed in the region of low-level monsoon westerlies and midlevel northerlies associated with the outer circulation of Fengshen, the characteristic structure of a rear-fed inflow with a leading stratiform rain area in the cross-line direction (toward the south) was established. A cold pool (Δθ < −3 K) associated with the large stratiform precipitation region led to continuous formation of new cells at the leading edge of the cold pool, which contributed to the long duration of the OMCS.

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How does vertical wind shear influence entrainment in squall lines?

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences ◽

10.1175/jas-d-20-0299.1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jake P. Mulholland ◽

John M. Peters ◽

Hugh Morrison

Keyword(s):

Wind Shear ◽

Vertical Wind Shear ◽

Leading Edge ◽

Vertical Wind ◽

Squall Line ◽

Cold Pool ◽

Low Level ◽

Boundary Shear ◽

Squall Lines ◽

Outflow Boundary

AbstractThe influence of vertical wind shear on updraft entrainment in squall lines is not well understood. To address this knowledge gap, a suite of high-resolution idealized numerical model simulations of squall lines were run in various vertical wind shear (hereafter “shear”) environments to study the effects of shear on entrainment in deep convective updrafts. Low-level horizontal mass flux into the leading edge of the cold pool was strongest in the simulations with the strongest low-level shear. These simulations consequently displayed wider updrafts, less entrainment-driven dilution, and larger buoyancy than the simulations with comparatively weak low-level shear. An analysis of vertical accelerations along trajectories that passed through updrafts showed larger net accelerations from buoyancy in the simulations with stronger low-level shear, which demonstrates how less entrainment-driven dilution equated to stronger updrafts. The effects of upper-level shear on entrainment and updraft vertical velocities were generally less pronounced than the effects of low-level shear. We argue that in addition to the outflow boundary-shear interactions and their effect on updraft tilt established by previous authors, decreased entrainment-driven dilution is yet another beneficial effect of strong low-level shear on squall line updraft intensity.

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Characteristics and Formation of a Synoptic Situation Causing Sudden Turning of Mesoscale Convective Systems over South China

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos10040191 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (4) ◽

pp. 191

Author(s):

Zhaoming Liang ◽

Ying Liu ◽

Jinfang Yin

Keyword(s):

Eastern China ◽

Vertical Wind Shear ◽

Northwestern Pacific ◽

Synoptic Situation ◽

The Tibetan Plateau ◽

Northwestern Pacific Ocean ◽

Low Level ◽

Convective Systems ◽

Mesoscale Convective ◽

Turning Motion

The characteristics and formation of a synoptic situation that causes a sudden turning motion of warm-sector mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over South China are described, based on the collection and investigation of associated cases during April–June 2011–2017 using high-resolution observational data and ERA (ECMWF Re-Analysis)-Interim data. The results show that the blocking of a marked low-level high over eastern China (eastern high) on a strengthening low-level trough over southwestern China (southwestern trough) results in significant enhancement of southerly winds ahead of the trough, which produces a strong southeastward vertical wind shear at low levels near western Guangdong province. This low-level vertical wind shear results in sudden southeastward turning motion for the warm-sector MCSs entering into Guangdong province from Guangxi province. The formation of the eastern high is mainly attributable to the strong cyclonic wind anomaly over the northwestern Pacific Ocean, which continuously brings cold air from higher latitudes to eastern China, where high synoptic-scale transient anomaly of geopotential height (SSTA-GH) forms. This cyclonic wind anomaly is induced by a low SSTA-GH, which travels from the north and south sides of the Tibetan Plateau to the northwestern Pacific Ocean and develops significantly as a result of a strong upper-level low SSTA-GH coupling with it or approaching it. On the other hand, the high SSTA-GH over eastern China blocks the eastward extension of the low SSTA-GH originating from the Tibetan Plateau. Consequently, this low SSTA-GH turns to extend or move southeastward/southward to southwestern China, leading to intensification of the southwestern trough.

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Observations of a Squall Line and Its Near Environment Using High-Frequency Rawinsonde Launches during VORTEX2

Monthly Weather Review ◽

10.1175/2010mwr3359.1 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 138 (11) ◽

pp. 4076-4097 ◽

Cited By ~ 40

Author(s):

George H. Bryan ◽

Matthew D. Parker

Keyword(s):

Wind Shear ◽

Deep Layer ◽

Potential Temperature ◽

Vertical Wind Shear ◽

Vertical Wind ◽

Squall Line ◽

Cold Pool ◽

Low Level ◽

Stratiform Region ◽

Gust Front

Abstract Rawinsonde data were collected before and during passage of a squall line in Oklahoma on 15 May 2009 during the Second Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX2). Nine soundings were released within 3 h, allowing for unprecedented analysis of the squall line’s internal structure and nearby environment. Four soundings were released in the prestorm environment and they document the following features: low-level cooling associated with the reduction of solar isolation by a cirrus anvil; abrupt warming (1.5 K in 30 min) above the boundary layer, which is probably attributable to a gravity wave; increases in both low-level and deep-layer vertical wind shear within 100 km of the squall line; and evidence of ascent extending at least 75 km ahead of the squall line. The next sounding was released ∼5 km ahead of the squall line’s gust front; it documented a moist absolutely unstable layer within a 2-km-deep layer of ascent, with vertical air velocity of approximately 6 m s−1. Another sounding was released after the gust front passed but before precipitation began; this sounding showed the cold pool to be ∼4 km deep, with a cold pool intensity C ≈ 35 m s−1, even though this sounding was located only 8 km behind the surface gust front. The final three soundings were released in the trailing stratiform region of the squall line, and they showed typical features such as: “onion”-shaped soundings, nearly uniform equivalent potential temperature over a deep layer, and an elevated rear inflow jet. The cold pool was 4.7 km deep in the trailing stratiform region, and extended ∼1 km above the melting level, suggesting that sublimation was a contributor to cold pool development. A mesoscale analysis of the sounding data shows an upshear tilt to the squall line, which is consistent with the cold pool intensity C being much larger than a measure of environmental vertical wind shear ΔU. This dataset should be useful for evaluating cloud-scale numerical model simulations and analytic theory, but the authors argue that additional observations of this type should be collected in future field projects.

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