scholarly journals A Conceptual Tool for Climate Change Risk Assessment

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (21) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul A. T. Higgins ◽  
Jonah V. Steinbuck

Abstract This study develops a new conceptual tool to explore the potential societal consequences of climate change. The conceptual tool delineates three quasi-independent factors that contribute to the societal consequences of climate change: how climate changes; the sensitivity of physical systems, biological resources, and social institutions to climate change; and the degree of human dependence on those systems, resources, and institutions. This conceptual tool, as currently developed, is not predictive, but it enables the exploration of the dependence of climate change risks on key contributing factors. In exploring a range of plausible behaviors for these factors and methods for their synthesis, the authors show that plausible assumptions lead to a wide range in potential societal consequences of climate change. This illustrates that the societal consequences of climate change are currently difficult to constrain and that high-consequence climate change outcomes are not necessarily low probability, as suggested by leading economic analyses. With careful implementation, this new conceptual tool has potential to increase public understanding of climate change risks, to support risk management decision making, or to facilitate communication of climate risks across disciplinary boundaries.

Author(s):  
Walter Leal Filho ◽  
Abul Al-Amin ◽  
Gustavo Nagy ◽  
Ulisses Azeiteiro ◽  
Laura Wiesböck ◽  
...  

There are various climate risks that are caused or influenced by climate change. They are known to have a wide range of physical, economic, environmental and social impacts. Apart from damages to the physical environment, many climate risks (climate variability, extreme events and climate-related hazards) are associated with a variety of impacts on human well-being, health, and life-supporting systems. These vary from boosting the proliferation of vectors of diseases (e.g., mosquitos), to mental problems triggered by damage to properties and infrastructure. There is a great variety of literature about the strong links between climate change and health, while there is relatively less literature that specifically examines the health impacts of climate risks and extreme events. This paper is an attempt to address this knowledge gap, by compiling eight examples from a set of industrialised and developing countries, where such interactions are described. The policy implications of these phenomena and the lessons learned from the examples provided are summarised. Some suggestions as to how to avert the potential and real health impacts of climate risks are made, hence assisting efforts to adapt to a problem whose impacts affect millions of people around the world. All the examples studied show some degree of vulnerability to climate risks regardless of their socioeconomic status and need to increase resilience against extreme events.


2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 147-163
Author(s):  
Kapil Dhungana ◽  
Harish Bahadur Chand ◽  
Dinesh Bhandari ◽  
Abhishek Kumar ◽  
Sanjay Singh ◽  
...  

The current study uses the livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change livelihood vulnerability index (IPCC-LVI) approaches to assess household’s livelihood vulnerability in the Dipang watershed located in the Central Himalayan region of Nepal. Primary data was collected through various participatory rural appraisal (PRA) tools such as direct observation, key informant interviews (KIIs), focus group discussions (FGDs) and household surveys. Similarly, data on climatic variables were collected from the nearby meteorological station over 30 years (1987-2018). The mean annual average temperature increased by 0.036°C while the average rainfall decreased by 2.30 mm. Respondents perceived a similar trend of rising temperatures, decreasing rainfall intensity, dryness in the atmosphere, and dwindling water sources. The overall LVI score (0.416) indicated that the households are vulnerable to climate change. Food (0.642) and natural disasters and climate variability (0.566) were the most vulnerable among all contributing factors. Similarly, the overall LVI-IPCC score (0.104) indicated that the households were moderately vulnerable due to high exposure (0.566), sensitivity (0.448), and low adaptive capacity (0.334). The study findings suggest an urgent need to reduce high exposure to climate risks, improved livelihood strategies, and boost agricultural productivity and health in the watershed area.


2020 ◽  
Vol 101 (8) ◽  
pp. E1279-E1300 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabine Undorf ◽  
Simon F. B. Tett ◽  
Joseph Hagg ◽  
Marc J. Metzger ◽  
Chris Wilson ◽  
...  

Abstract Anthropogenic climate change calls for rapid and enormous cuts in emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases to mitigate future impacts. Even with these, however, many changes will continue to occur over the next 20–30 years adding to those already observed. Adaptation is crucial and urgent, but identifying strategies is complex and requires dialogue and cooperation among stakeholders, especially for infrastructure that exhibits interdependent risks in that failure in one type may impact others. A serious game was codeveloped with infrastructure operators to communicate climate projections and climate hazards to them; identify potential interdependencies, cascading impacts, cumulative effects, and vulnerability hot spots; and engage them to improve cooperation and enable a shared understanding of cross-cutting climate risks and interdependencies. In the game, players provide present-day infrastructure services in the Inverclyde district, Scotland, as they experience a plausible decade of 2050s weather characterized by a sequence of hazard events. This sequence was extracted from climate model projections to ensure scientific plausibility. The infrastructure operators were responsible for drinking water and gas supplies, road and rail transport, wastewater treatment, and civil infrastructure. When playing the game the participating U.K. infrastructure providers felt that although there were challenges, they could cope with 2050s climate change. None of the projected hazard events were anticipated to cause catastrophic impact cascades on infrastructure. The game was positively received, and the study suggests it is a useful tool to both communicate climate hazards and explore potential interdependent risks by bringing together stakeholders’ individual expertise in an engaging way.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Ratanakvisal Chean

<p>This thesis investigates the Takeo community’s perception of climate change risks and their response strategies. It examines risks occurring in the regions and their impacts on the community. The thesis also explores how the perception of risks frames the community’s adaptation and mitigation strategies as well as how those perceptions influence climate change policies. This research draws on a range of risk perception theories. Employing a qualitative approach, this study uses semi-structured interviews, document analysis and participant observation as its research methods. Interviews were conducted individually with agricultural practitioners, mothers, community leaders, a local government officer and a government official from the Ministry of Environment.   The thesis found that the Takeo’s community has a good perception of the issue and its impacts on their community. Droughts are the major concern for the majority of respondents, because these have become more severe and have the most direct impact on farmers’ lives, livelihoods and food security. The study reflects the view maintained by past and current theory, that individual perceptions of risks vary, and the perception of risk is influenced by media and peers. This study adds that farmers’ direct experience of climate change affects their consideration of such risks as an issue of great personal concern.   Perception of climate change influences the community’s responses. Farmers employ a wide range of adaptation strategies such as increasing water storage and improving agricultural techniques. However, adaptation approaches are not enough to provide a long-term solution to the fast changing climate, because the community has limited knowledge of adaptation strategies, resources, and limited support from the government. The community, thus, needs to improve its water management by building more dams and sufficient irrigation that can store enough water for consumption and agriculture in the prolonged dry season. The government should provide more support and services to poor rural communities that rely on agriculture.</p>


Author(s):  
Mark B. Brown

The relation of science and democracy is an ancient conundrum that continues to generate public controversy. Whenever science produces an “inconvenient truth”—as Al Gore famously calls the science of climate change—democratic governments may be tempted to ignore or suppress it. And as scientists like to remind us, “You can’t vote on the laws of physics!” Natural scientists and their advocates often argue that the power of science in democracy depends on it remaining insulated from politics. Seen in this light, it is no wonder that many believe science and democracy tend to undermine each other. But another long tradition sees science and democracy as mutually reinforcing. Democracies depend on science for effectively addressing public problems, and many argue that science provides a model of rational democratic deliberation. These two conflicting interpretations each capture part of the story, but they neglect some of the most interesting questions, which concern changes in the meaning and purpose of science and democracy and how they shape each other in particular contexts. With regard to science, most scholars who study science and democracy now reject the long dominant “positivist” view of science as a formal, logical, socially insulated method for producing value-free knowledge. The ideal of value-free science remains popular in public life, but extensive research in the social sciences and humanities has shown how science is intertwined with social values, commercial pressures, and political decisions. That does not mean science merely reflects dominant interests, as caricatures of “social constructivism” assert, but it does open up difficult questions about how democratic citizens might shape the science that shapes their lives. With regard to democracy, mid-20th-century political scientists tended to conceive democracy narrowly in terms of popular elections and formal state institutions. Recent scholarship, in contrast, shows how social institutions and material practices of all kinds may become sites of democratic politics. Indeed, as democracy has increased in global popularity, its meaning has become increasingly diffuse and ambiguous; democracy offers both a rallying cry for social justice movements and a marketing slogan for global corporations. The relation of science and democracy involves a wide range of disparate phenomena, including science advice, science policy, public engagement in sociotechnical controversies, lay-expert relations, and the technical constitution of democratic citizens, not to mention the many specific concerns associated with issues like climate change, genetic engineering, or nanotechnology. Of course, “science and democracy” is not an established field of study, and nearly any piece of scholarship might be deemed relevant. This article is limited to works that directly address both science and democracy, understood as particular forms of knowledge and politics, respectively. This approach excludes many works that would fall under the headings “politics and science” or “democracy and knowledge.” Even within these limits, many important sources are missing, and readers should consult the bibliographies of the works cited here.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Ratanakvisal Chean

<p>This thesis investigates the Takeo community’s perception of climate change risks and their response strategies. It examines risks occurring in the regions and their impacts on the community. The thesis also explores how the perception of risks frames the community’s adaptation and mitigation strategies as well as how those perceptions influence climate change policies. This research draws on a range of risk perception theories. Employing a qualitative approach, this study uses semi-structured interviews, document analysis and participant observation as its research methods. Interviews were conducted individually with agricultural practitioners, mothers, community leaders, a local government officer and a government official from the Ministry of Environment.   The thesis found that the Takeo’s community has a good perception of the issue and its impacts on their community. Droughts are the major concern for the majority of respondents, because these have become more severe and have the most direct impact on farmers’ lives, livelihoods and food security. The study reflects the view maintained by past and current theory, that individual perceptions of risks vary, and the perception of risk is influenced by media and peers. This study adds that farmers’ direct experience of climate change affects their consideration of such risks as an issue of great personal concern.   Perception of climate change influences the community’s responses. Farmers employ a wide range of adaptation strategies such as increasing water storage and improving agricultural techniques. However, adaptation approaches are not enough to provide a long-term solution to the fast changing climate, because the community has limited knowledge of adaptation strategies, resources, and limited support from the government. The community, thus, needs to improve its water management by building more dams and sufficient irrigation that can store enough water for consumption and agriculture in the prolonged dry season. The government should provide more support and services to poor rural communities that rely on agriculture.</p>


2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 65
Author(s):  
Yohannes Gebre Michael

The case study was made with the overall aim of understanding of pastoralist vulnerability and adaptation to climate changes. As a methodology five kebeles have been purposely selected representing pastoral and agro-pastoral farming systems in Harshin district of Somali Region in Ethiopia. The survey was conducted through semi-structured checklists with individual households and groups accounting a total of 124 people.The major findings of the study indicated that the environmental and socio-economic dynamics are skewed to negative trends where the livelihood of the pastoral community is under a big threat. Moreover, the combinations of factors including access to resources and social institutions, livelihood practices, inappropriate technologies and policies have attributed to trigger the vulnerability to climate change among the pastoralists in general and agro-pastoralists in particular. In adapting to the impact of climate change, pastoralists and agro-pastoralists are using wide range of group and individual local innovations, some farming practices and establishment of multi-functional grassroots institutions. Finally creating enabling policy environment for local experimentation and innovations in the framework of pastoralism and sustainability have been suggested as a point of departure in developing resilience to climate change and other pressures. 


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (13) ◽  
pp. 5325 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mete Feridun ◽  
Hasan Güngör

This article reviews emerging regulatory and supervisory practices with respect to prudential risks from climate change in the banking sector. It evaluates the theoretical considerations with respect to climate-related financial risks in the banking sector, reviews the related academic literature, and analyzes the policy-related publications from various regulatory authorities. As a result of this assessment, the article concludes that the major regulatory and supervisory expectations can be categorized into four key areas: (i) board-level attention to climate risks and integrating them into internal governance frameworks, (ii) embedding climate risks into strategies and overall risk management frameworks, (iii) identifying climate-related material exposures and disclosure of relevant key metrics, and (iv) assessing capital impact from climate risk through scenario analysis and stress testing. The article also presents a number of implications for banks and banking regulators in other jurisdictions to help them identify the actions required to address climate change risks in the banking sector.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerard H. Roe ◽  
John Erich Christian ◽  
Ben Marzeion

Abstract. Around the world, small ice caps and glaciers have been losing mass and retreating during the industrial era. Estimates are that this has contributed approximately 30 % of the observed sea-level rise over the same period. It is important to understand the relative importance of natural and anthropogenic components of this mass loss. One recent study concluded that the best estimate of the anthropogenic contribution over the industrial era was only 25 %, implying a predominantly natural cause. Here we show that the fraction of the anthropogenic contribution to the total mass loss of a given glacier depends only on the magnitudes and rates of the natural and anthropogenic components of climate change, and on the glacier's response time. We consider climate change over the past millennium using synthetic scenarios, paleoclimate reconstructions, numerical climate simulations, and instrumental observations. We use these climate histories to drive a glacier model that can represent a wide range of glacier response times to evaluate the anthropogenic contribution to glacier mass loss. The slow cooling over the preceding millennium, followed by the rapid anthropogenic warming of the industrial era means that, over the full range of response times for small ice caps and glaciers, the central estimate of the anthropogenic component of the mass loss is essentially 100 %. Our results bring assessments of attribution of glacier mass loss into alignment with assessments of others aspects of climate change, such as global-mean temperature. Furthermore, these results reinforce the scientific and public understanding of centennial-scale glacier retreat as an unambiguous consequence of human activity.


2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 1123-1136
Author(s):  
V.S. Vasiltsov ◽  
◽  
N.N. Yashalova ◽  
E.N. Yakovleva ◽  
A.V. Kharlamov ◽  
...  

Global climate change threatens the continued existence of mankind. The rate of warming in Russia, which is 2.5 times higher than the rate of growth of the global average temperature, can lead to huge environmental and financial losses. Thus, it is increasingly necessary to modernise and develop methods and tools for adaptive regulation of national climate policy to increase its efficiency at the regional and federal levels. To this end, the methods of content analysis, grouping, modelling, comparative and correlation analysis, as well as an information asymmetry approach were used in the research. The paper substantiates the necessity of a transition from autarky and directionality to the integration of regions and the federation based on adaptation and preventive measures. The periodic assessment of climate change and relevant contributing factors should be replaced by the continuous management and regional monitoring of climate risks. Stressing the importance of transparency and comparability of information on climate risks, the research distinguished anthropogenic risks, risks of reducing the quality of life and moral climate risks. In order to promote climate preservation, an organisational and economic mechanism for the implementation of climate policy was developed, whose main function is the regional environmental management. Assessment of the decoupling effect and ranking of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in terms of the relationship between energy intensity and climate intensity proved the feasibility of using the proposed indicators to increase the efficiency of the organisational and economic mechanism. Regulatory and financial support for the mechanism can be provided by introducing a quota market, green certificates and bonds, insurance and risk hedging strategies based on a scenario approach and online-management models. The research results can be used for the digitalisation of national climate policy, as well as for the development of regional and municipal climate strategies, programmes, projects.


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