Abstract. Around the world, small ice caps and glaciers have been
losing mass and retreating since the start of the industrial era. Estimates are that
this has contributed approximately 30 % of the observed sea-level rise
over the same period. It is important to understand the relative importance
of natural and anthropogenic components of this mass loss. One recent study
concluded that the best estimate of the magnitude of the anthropogenic mass
loss over the industrial era was only 25 % of the total, implying a
predominantly natural cause. Here we show that the
anthropogenic fraction of the total mass loss of a given glacier depends
only on the magnitudes and rates of the natural and anthropogenic components
of climate change and on the glacier's response time. We consider climate
change over the past millennium using synthetic scenarios, palaeoclimate
reconstructions, numerical climate simulations, and instrumental
observations. We use these climate histories to drive a glacier model that
can represent a wide range of glacier response times, and we evaluate the
magnitude of the anthropogenic mass loss relative to the observed mass loss.
The slow cooling over the preceding millennium followed by the rapid
anthropogenic warming of the industrial era means that, over the full range
of response times for small ice caps and glaciers, the central estimate of
the magnitude of the anthropogenic mass loss is essentially 100 % of the
observed mass loss. The anthropogenic magnitude may exceed 100 % in the
event that, without anthropogenic climate forcing, glaciers would otherwise
have been gaining mass. Our results bring assessments of the attribution of
glacier mass loss into alignment with assessments of others aspects of
climate change, such as global-mean temperature. Furthermore, these results
reinforce the scientific and public understanding of centennial-scale
glacier retreat as an unambiguous consequence of human activity.