Natural and anthropogenic risks after a giant landslide in the Russian Far East

At the Bureiskoe Reservoir (Far East, Russia) in December 2018 at a temperature of 36°C below zero the giant landslide is occurred. Landslide with a total volume of 24.5 million m3 blocked the reservoir from one shore to the opposite one, disrupting the access of water to a large hydroelectric power station downstream. Blasting operations were carried out with the use of trinitrotoluene and hexogen to revive the water flow. As a result of the landslide natural hazards (direct impact of the landslide, and tsunami) were happened, and the further strong impact was caused by humans (blasting). Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and elemental composition were accepted as the main indicators of water quality. Parameters of these indicators varied at different near-shore sites above and below the landslide area. More significant changes are recorded after blasting operations. Hexane and toluene dominated the water passing the artificial channel. The genesis of VOCs can be associated with the biogeochemical processes of methanogenesis, methanotrophy, and the detonation products of explosives. Mercury, methanol, toluene, and xylenes in water samples were detected. This is evidence of the presence of a prerequisite for the formation of toxic methylmercury, a risk factor for aquatic biota.

A Sociological Perspective on the Representation of Science in Climate Change Novels

According to a comprehensive scientific consensus, the environmental impact of modern societies is a significant cause for the current experienced effects of global warming. In addition to science’s function as a diagnostic instance of the Anthropocene, it occupies at least two additional roles in the story of humaninduced climate change. Modern science tries to act as a therapist as it proposes numerous actions that need to be taken when tackling the risks, causes, and consequences of climate change. Moreover, the institution of science is a (co-) producer of anthropogenic risks due to the intentional and unintentional utilization of scientific knowledge and science-based technologies for societal purposes. Therefore, this contribution asks from a sociological point of view how representations of science in exemplary climate change novels, a body of contemporary literature that deals with human-induced global warming and its societal implications, depict this multi-layered embedding of science as a producer, diagnostician, and therapist of societal risks in the story of humancaused climate change.

Digital technologies for managing anthropogenic risks in electric power industry

The article examines the information and analytical technology implemented during the operation of electrical networks, based on the capabilities of multi-agent monitoring of the somatic and mental condition of the staff of power grid companies and predictive analysis of anthropogenic risks of energy production within the framework of a risk-based approach to human resource management. The analysis includes instrumental monitoring, assessment of indicators (using objective data) characterizing the condition of operational managers, operational and maintenance staff involved in real technological and business processes for servicing equipment of network companies using optimization theory methods, fuzzy sets, index analysis, provision of integral information to operational managers and management of energy companies, the formation of proposals on the areas of investment in the development of their human resources based on solving the optimization problem of minimizing damage due to wrong actions, inaction and violation of safety requirements for energy production. It is proposed to use a system of dimensionless index indicators for assessing the condition of staff, predictive analysis of the success of their professional activities and the formation of its ontological model in order to manage anthropogenic risks to ensure reliable and safe functioning of energy production with the possibility of developing measures and scenarios of impacts on staff within the production process. The article presents approaches to the formation of monitoring technology, which ensures the construction of unified systems for recording the condition of staff operating electric power facilities, statistics of failures due to staff's fault to determine the optimal type, composition and cost of impact on staff, improving their health based on multi-agent analysis of monitoring data, allowing to direct the flow of events in accordance with the conditions set by the availability of funds for these purposes. The authors have developed a mathematical apparatus, proposed devices and software, with the help of which an automated analysis of the indices of the condition of staff of each category, servicing equipment units (assemblies) and the formation of scenarios of impacts on it (agent-based modeling of condition-controlled behavior) has been carried out.

Mathematical basis of stochastic modeling multicomponent risks in security systems

Introduction. It is shown that the development of methods for modeling multicomponent risks is a promising direction for improving information and analytical support for control in security systems. The purpose of the study is to develop new approaches to the study of natural, technogenic and anthropogenic risks based on stochastic modeling of the structure of multicomponent risks in socio-technical systems. Methods of stochastic modeling are based on a matrix representation of risk components, detailing the states of the protected object and the probabilistic characteristics of the functioning of security systems. Results and discussion. A method for analyzing multicomponent risks is presented, reflecting in-depth detailing of the states of the protected object and the probabilistic characteristics of the functioning of security systems. A stochastic model has been built that describes the structure of risk as a result of the interaction of two components, a multiplier and an accelerator, associated with various elements of the model, which, respectively, determine the possibility of occurrence of dangerous events, as well as the degree of vulnerability of protected objects. A connection is established between the indicators of expected losses in a certain territory with the presence of forces, means and systems of protection against the effects of hazardous factors and their current state. The procedures for determining the main parameters of the proposed stochastic model based on statistical and expert methods are discussed. A mathematical toolkit has been created for comparative analysis of the effectiveness of measures to reduce risks in socio-technical systems. The problem of multicriteria combinatorial optimization of planned costs and distribution of financial, material, technical and labor resources in territorial security systems is formulated. Conclusions. Methods for modeling multicomponent risks can be used to create effective algorithms for supporting risk-oriented management in security systems. Key words: stochastic modeling, multicomponent risk, socio-technical system, risk management, security system.

National Climate Policy: Conceptual Framework and Adaptation Problems

Global climate change threatens the continued existence of mankind. The rate of warming in Russia, which is 2.5 times higher than the rate of growth of the global average temperature, can lead to huge environmental and financial losses. Thus, it is increasingly necessary to modernise and develop methods and tools for adaptive regulation of national climate policy to increase its efficiency at the regional and federal levels. To this end, the methods of content analysis, grouping, modelling, comparative and correlation analysis, as well as an information asymmetry approach were used in the research. The paper substantiates the necessity of a transition from autarky and directionality to the integration of regions and the federation based on adaptation and preventive measures. The periodic assessment of climate change and relevant contributing factors should be replaced by the continuous management and regional monitoring of climate risks. Stressing the importance of transparency and comparability of information on climate risks, the research distinguished anthropogenic risks, risks of reducing the quality of life and moral climate risks. In order to promote climate preservation, an organisational and economic mechanism for the implementation of climate policy was developed, whose main function is the regional environmental management. Assessment of the decoupling effect and ranking of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in terms of the relationship between energy intensity and climate intensity proved the feasibility of using the proposed indicators to increase the efficiency of the organisational and economic mechanism. Regulatory and financial support for the mechanism can be provided by introducing a quota market, green certificates and bonds, insurance and risk hedging strategies based on a scenario approach and online-management models. The research results can be used for the digitalisation of national climate policy, as well as for the development of regional and municipal climate strategies, programmes, projects.

Risk awareness of black-and-gold howler monkeys living in an urban environment in south-west Paraguay

As urbanisation increases, wild primates are exposed to urban environments which come with a distinct and often novel set of risks. Urban habitats can form a matrix of forest fragments and anthropogenic structures, including buildings, electric cables and roads, which can limit movement and force species to live in hazardous areas. We studied five groups of urban black and gold howler monkey (Alouatta caraya) in Pilar, Paraguay, to investigate whether the monkeys are aware of anthropogenic risks based on their patterns of self-scratching behaviour, an indicator of stress, and how they used the space available to them. Using a Risk Index created for the study, we ranked the level of risk attributed to different zones of their home range, awarding each zone with a hazard score. Using Quantum GIS and kernel density estimation, we determined the relationship between habitat use and hazard score. Using a Spearman’s rank correlation, we found nonsignificant relationships between the hazard score and self-scratching behaviour for four groups, suggesting a lack of awareness. However, there was a significant negative relationship between the hazard score and home range use for four groups, indicating that they spent more time in areas with lower levels of anthropogenic risk.

The Governance of Covid-19: Anthropogenic Risk, Evolutionary Learning, and the Future of the Social State

We consider the implications of the Covid-19 crisis for the theory and practice of governance. We define ‘governance’ as the process through which, in the case of a given entity or polity, resources are allocated, decisions made and policies implemented, with a view to ensuring the effectiveness of its operations in the face of risks in its environment. Core to this, we argue, is the organisation of knowledge through public institutions, including the legal system. Covid-19 poses a particular type of ‘Anthropogenic’ risk, which arises when organised human activity triggers feedback effects from the natural environment. As such it requires the concerted mobilisation of knowledge and a directed response from governments and international agencies. In this context, neoliberal theories and practices, which emphasise the self-adjusting properties of systems of governance in response to external shocks, are going to be put to the test. In states’ varied responses to Covid-19 to date, it is already possible to observe some trends. One of them is the widespread mischaracterisation of the measures taken to address the epidemic at the point of its emergence in the Chinese city of Wuhan in January and February 2020. Public health measures of this kind, rather than constituting a ‘state of exception’ in which legality is set aside, are informed by practices which originated in the welfare or social states of industrialised countries, and which were successful in achieving a ‘mortality revolution’ in the course of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Relearning this history would seem to be essential for the future control of pandemics and other Anthropogenic risks.

NGIC: turning concepts into reality

<p>The National Geo-Information Center (NGIC) is a distributed research infrastructure funded by the National road map for scientific infrastructure (2017-2023) of Bulgaria. It operates in a variety of disciplines such as geophysics, geology, seismology, geodesy, oceanology, climatology, soil science, etc. providing data products and services. Created as a partnership between four institutes working in the field of Earth observation: the National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography (NIGGG), the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH), the Institute of Oceanology (IO), the Geological Institute (GI), and two institutes competent in ICT: the Institute of Mathematics and Informatics (IMI) and the Institute of Information and Communication Technologies (IICT), NGIC consortium serve as primary community of data collectors for national geoscience research. Besides the science, NGIC aims to support decision makers during the process of prevention and protection of the population from natural and anthropogenic risks and disasters.</p><p>Individual NGIC partners originated independently and differ from one another in management and disciplinary scope. Thus, the conceptual model of the NGIC system architecture is based on a federated model structure in which the partners retain their independence and contribute to the development of the common infrastructure through the data and research they carry out. The basic conceptual model of architecture uses both service and microservice concepts and may be altered according to the specifics of the organization environment and development goals of the NGIC information system. It consists of three layers: “Sources” layer containing the providers of Data, Data products, Services and Soft-ware (DDSS), “Interoperability”- regulating the access, automation of discovery and selection of DDSS and data collection from the sources, and “Integration” layer which produces integrated data products.</p><p>The diversity of NGIC’s data, data products, and services is a major strength and of high value to its users like governmental institutions and agencies, research organizations and universities, private sector enterprises, media and the public. NGIC will pursue collaboration with initiatives, projects and research infrastructures for Earth observation to enhance access to an integrated global data resource.</p>