scholarly journals Evaluating a Hybrid Prognostic–Diagnostic Model That Improves Wind Forecast Resolution in Complex Coastal Topography

2006 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 155-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francis L. Ludwig ◽  
Douglas K. Miller ◽  
Shawn G. Gallaher
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Coastal Region ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Diagnostic Model ◽  
Wind Model ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Central California ◽  
Physics Model

Abstract The results from a hybrid approach that combines the forecasts of a mesoscale model with a diagnostic wind model to produce high-resolution wind forecasts in complex coastal orography are evaluated. The simple diagnostic wind model [Winds on Critical Streamline Surfaces (WOCSS)] was driven with forecasts (on a 9-km grid) from the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) to obtain detailed near-surface wind forecasts with 3-km horizontal spacing. Forecasts were produced by this hybrid model for four cold-season cases—two frontal and two nonfrontal—over the central California coastal region. They were compared with 3-km forecasts from the innermost COAMPS full physics model nest and with winds observed at 35 surface sites scattered throughout the study domain. The evaluation sought to determine the conditions for which the hybrid approach performs well and those for which it does not. The performance (in terms of bias and root-mean-square error) was evaluated 1) when there were and were not fronts and 2) for the early (6–18 h) and late (21–36 h) periods of the mesoscale model forecasts. The geographic distribution of performance was also examined to see if forecasts were affected by mountains and oceans. The hybrid approach performed best during stable, nonfrontal conditions. There were no clearly defined geographic effects on hybrid performance. The computation requirements of the full physics mesoscale model nested down to 3 km are substantially greater than those of the hybrid approach. Suggestions are given for further improvements.

scholarly journals Snow density along the route traversed by the Japanese-Swedish Antarctic Expedition 2007/08

2012 ◽  
Vol 58 (209) ◽  
pp. 529-539 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shin Sugiyama ◽  
Hiroyuki Enomoto ◽  
Shuji Fujita ◽  
Kotaro Fukui ◽  
Fumio Nakazawa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Coastal Region ◽  
Snow Density ◽  
Syowa Station ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
A Value ◽  
Surface Snow ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Antarctic

AbstractDuring the Japanese-Swedish Antarctic traverse expedition of 2007/08, we measured the surface snow density at 46 locations along the 2800 km long route from Syowa station to Wasa station in East Antarctica. The mean snow density for the upper 1 (or 0.5) m layer varied from 333 to 439 kg m-3 over a region spanning an elevation range of 365-3800 ma.s.l. The density variations were associated with the elevation of the sampling sites; the density decreased as the elevation increased, moving from the coastal region inland. However, the density was relatively insensitive to the change in elevation along the ridge on the Antarctic plateau between Dome F and Kohnen stations. Because surface wind is weak in this region, irrespective of elevation, the wind speed was suggested to play a key role in the near-surface densification. The results of multiple regression performed on the density using meteorological variables were significantly improved by the inclusion of wind speed as a predictor. The regression analysis yielded a linear dependence between the density and the wind speed, with a coefficient of 13.5 kg m-3 (m s-1)-1. This relationship is nearly three times stronger than a value previously computed from a dataset available in Antarctica. Our data indicate that the wind speed is more important to estimates of the surface snow density in Antarctica than has been previously assumed.

scholarly journals Downscaling surface wind predictions from numerical weather prediction models in complex terrain with WindNinja

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. S. Wagenbrenner ◽  
J. M. Forthofer ◽  
B. K. Lamb ◽  
K. S. Shannon ◽  
B. W. Butler
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Atmospheric Stability ◽  
Wind Model ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Numerical Weather

Abstract. Wind predictions in complex terrain are important for a number of applications. Dynamic downscaling of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model winds with a high resolution wind model is one way to obtain a wind forecast that accounts for local terrain effects, such as wind speed-up over ridges, flow channeling in valleys, flow separation around terrain obstacles, and flows induced by local surface heating and cooling. In this paper we investigate the ability of a mass-consistent wind model for downscaling near-surface wind predictions from four NWP models in complex terrain. Model predictions are compared with surface observations from a tall, isolated mountain. Downscaling improved near-surface wind forecasts under high-wind (near-neutral atmospheric stability) conditions. Results were mixed during upslope and downslope (non-neutral atmospheric stability) flow periods, although wind direction predictions generally improved with downscaling. This work constitutes evaluation of a diagnostic wind model at unprecedented high spatial resolution in terrain with topographical ruggedness approaching that of typical landscapes in the western US susceptible to wildland fire.

scholarly journals Reexamination of the Near-Surface Airflow over the Antarctic Continent and Implications on Atmospheric Circulations at High Southern Latitudes*

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (5) ◽  
pp. 1961-1973 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas R. Parish ◽  
David H. Bromwich
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
Diagnostic Model ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Antarctic Continent ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract Previous work has shown that winds in the lower atmosphere over the Antarctic continent are among the most persistent on earth with directions coupled to the underlying ice topography. In 1987, Parish and Bromwich used a diagnostic model to depict details of the Antarctic near-surface airflow. A radially outward drainage pattern off the highest elevations of the ice sheets was displayed with wind speeds that generally increase from the high interior to the coast. These winds are often referred to as “katabatic,” with the implication that they are driven by radiational cooling of near-surface air over the sloping ice terrain. It has been shown that the Antarctic orography constrains the low-level wind regime through other forcing mechanisms as well. Dynamics of the lower atmosphere have been investigated increasingly by the use of numerical models since the observational network over the Antarctic remains quite sparse. Real-time numerical weather prediction for the U.S. Antarctic Program has been ongoing since the 2000–01 austral summer season via the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS). AMPS output, which is based on a polar optimized version of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model, is used for a 1-yr period from June 2003 to May 2004 to investigate the mean annual and seasonal airflow patterns over the Antarctic continent to compare with previous streamline depictions. Divergent outflow from atop the continental interior implies that subsidence must exist over the continent and a direct thermal circulation over the high southern latitudes results. Estimates of the north–south mass fluxes are obtained from the mean airflow patterns to infer the influence of the elevated ice sheets on the mean meridional circulation over Antarctica.

The spatiotemporal characteristics of near-surface water vapor in a coastal region revealed from radar-derived refractivity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ya-Chien Feng ◽  
Hsiu-Wei Hsu ◽  
Tammy M. Weckwerth ◽  
Pay-Liam Lin ◽  
Yu-Chieng Liou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Vapor ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Coastal Region ◽  
Sea Breeze ◽  
Moisture Distribution ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Spatiotemporal Characteristics ◽  
Downslope Wind

AbstractThe radar-retrieved refractivity fields provide detailed depictions of the near-surface moisture distribution at the meso-gamma scale. This study represents a novel application of the refractivity fields by examining the spatiotemporal characteristics of moisture variability in a summertime coastal region in Taiwan over four weeks. The physiography in Taiwan lends itself to a variety of flow features and corresponding moisture behavior, which has not been well-studied. High-resolution of refractivity analyses demonstrate how a highly variable moisture field is related to the complex interaction between the synoptic-scale winds, diurnal local circulations, terrain, storms, and heterogeneous land-use. On average, higher refractivity (water vapor) is observed along the coastline and refractivity decreases inland toward the foothills. Under weak synoptic forcing conditions, the daytime refractivity field develops differently under local surface wind directions determined by the synoptic-scale prevailing wind and the sea breeze fronts. High moisture penetrates inland toward the foothills with southwesterly winds, but it stalls along the coastline with southerly and the northwesterly winds. The moisture distribution may further affect the occurrence of the inland afternoon storms. During the nighttime, the dry downslope wind decreases the moisture from the foothills toward the coast and forms a refractivity gradient perpendicular to the meridionally-oriented mountains. Furthermore, the refractivity fields illustrate higher resolution moisture distribution over surface station point measurements by showing the lagged daytime sea-breeze front between the urban and rural areas and the detailed nighttime heterogeneous moisture distribution related to land-use and rivers.

scholarly journals Homogenization and Assessment of Observed Near-Surface Wind Speed Trends over Spain and Portugal, 1961–2011*

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (10) ◽  
pp. 3692-3712 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cesar Azorin-Molina ◽  
Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano ◽  
Tim R. McVicar ◽  
Sonia Jerez ◽  
Arturo Sanchez-Lorenzo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
State University ◽  
Evaporative Demand ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Fifth Generation ◽  
Simulated Series ◽  
Increasing Trends

Abstract Near-surface wind speed trends recorded at 67 land-based stations across Spain and Portugal for 1961–2011, also focusing on the 1979–2008 subperiod, were analyzed. Wind speed series were subjected to quality control, reconstruction, and homogenization using a novel procedure that incorporated the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5)-simulated series as reference. The resultant series show a slight downward trend for both 1961–2011 (−0.016 m s−1 decade−1) and 1979–2008 (−0.010 m s−1 decade−1). However, differences between seasons with declining values in winter and spring, and increasing trends in summer and autumn, were observed. Even though wind stilling affected 77.8% of the stations in winter and 66.7% in spring, only roughly 40% of the declining trends were statistically significant at the p < 0.10 level. On the contrary, increasing trends appeared in 51.9% of the stations in summer and 57.4% in autumn, with also around 40% of the positive trends statistically significant at the p < 0.10 level. In this article, the authors also investigated (i) the possible impact of three atmospheric indices on the observed trends and (ii) the role played by the urbanization growth in the observed decline. An accurate homogenization and assessment of the long-term trends of wind speed is crucial for many fields such as wind energy (e.g., power generation) and agriculture–hydrology (e.g., evaporative demand).

scholarly journals Downscaling surface wind predictions from numerical weather prediction models in complex terrain with WindNinja

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. 5229-5241 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalie S. Wagenbrenner ◽  
Jason M. Forthofer ◽  
Brian K. Lamb ◽  
Kyle S. Shannon ◽  
Bret W. Butler
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Atmospheric Stability ◽  
Wind Model ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Numerical Weather

Abstract. Wind predictions in complex terrain are important for a number of applications. Dynamic downscaling of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model winds with a high-resolution wind model is one way to obtain a wind forecast that accounts for local terrain effects, such as wind speed-up over ridges, flow channeling in valleys, flow separation around terrain obstacles, and flows induced by local surface heating and cooling. In this paper we investigate the ability of a mass-consistent wind model for downscaling near-surface wind predictions from four NWP models in complex terrain. Model predictions are compared with surface observations from a tall, isolated mountain. Downscaling improved near-surface wind forecasts under high-wind (near-neutral atmospheric stability) conditions. Results were mixed during upslope and downslope (non-neutral atmospheric stability) flow periods, although wind direction predictions generally improved with downscaling. This work constitutes evaluation of a diagnostic wind model at unprecedented high spatial resolution in terrain with topographical ruggedness approaching that of typical landscapes in the western US susceptible to wildland fire.

scholarly journals Numerical modelling of pollutant dispersion in sea breeze conditions

1996 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 665-677 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Camps ◽  
J. Massons ◽  
M. R. Soler
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Coastal Region ◽  
Pollutant Dispersion ◽  
Sea Breeze ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Wind Measurements ◽  
Reactive Pollutant

Abstract. The characteristics of air pollution in Tarragona (Spain) were investigated. Tarragona has an important petrochemical industry in a coastal region with a complex terrain. The numerical study was made in sea breeze conditions with a three-dimensional mesoscale model. Temporal and spatial variations of the wind fields have been used in the Eulerian equation for a non-reactive pollutant. The results of this study reveal the complexity of the dispersion patterns due to the combined effects of the sea breeze circulation and the orography. This work presents a comparison between the model output and the observed wind data by sodar and surface wind measurements. The evaluation shows that the model is capable of providing very realistic wind fields within this domain.

scholarly journals Synoptic-Scale Environments Conducive to Orographic Impacts on Cold-Season Surface Wind Regimes at Montreal, Quebec

2012 ◽  
Vol 51 (3) ◽  
pp. 598-616 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alissa Razy ◽  
Shawn M. Milrad ◽  
Eyad H. Atallah ◽  
John R. Gyakum
Keyword(s):  
Surface Wind ◽  
Temperature Inversion ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Temperature Structure ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The North ◽  
Type D ◽  
Wind Events ◽  
Northeast Wind

AbstractOrographic wind channeling, defined as dynamically and thermally induced processes that force wind to blow along the axis of a valley, is a common occurrence along the St. Lawrence River Valley (SLRV) in Quebec, Canada, and produces substantial observed weather impacts at stations along the valley, including Montreal (CYUL). Cold-season observed north-northeast (n = 55) and south-southeast (n = 16) surface wind events at CYUL are identified from 1979 to 2002. The authors partition the north-northeast wind events into four groups using manual synoptic typing. Types A and D (“inland cyclone” and “northwestern cyclone”) are associated with strong lower-tropospheric geostrophic warm-air advection and near-surface pressure-driven channeling of cold air from the north-northeast, along the axis of the SLRV. Type C (“anticyclone”) shows no evidence of a surface cyclone and thus is the least associated with inclement weather at CYUL, whereas type B (“coastal cyclone”) is associated with predominantly forced wind channeling along the SLRV. Type D of the north-northeast wind events and all south-southeast wind events exhibit similar sea level pressure patterns. The respective magnitudes of the pressure gradients in the Lake Champlain Valley south of CYUL and the SLRV play a large role in determining the favored wind direction. Soundings of the various event types illustrate substantial differences in temperature structure, with a large near-surface temperature inversion particularly prevalent in north-northeast events. The results of this study may provide guidance in forecasting winds, temperatures, and observed weather in and around the SLRV, given certain synoptic-scale regimes.

Real-Time Forecasting for the Antarctic: An Evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS)*

2005 ◽  
Vol 133 (3) ◽  
pp. 579-603 ◽  
Author(s):  
David H. Bromwich ◽  
Andrew J. Monaghan ◽  
Kevin W. Manning ◽  
Jordan G. Powers
Keyword(s):  
Surface Pressure ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Windward Side ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Free Atmosphere ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In response to the need for improved weather prediction capabilities in support of the U.S. Antarctic Program’s field operations, the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) was implemented in October 2000. AMPS employs the Polar MM5, a version of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model optimized for use over ice sheets. The modeling system consists of several domains ranging in horizontal resolution from 90 km covering a large part of the Southern Hemisphere to 3.3 km over the complex terrain surrounding McMurdo, the hub of U.S. operations. The performance of the 30-km AMPS domain versus observations from manned and automatic weather stations is statistically evaluated for a 2-yr period from September 2001 through August 2003. The simulated 12–36-h surface pressure and near-surface temperature at most sites have correlations of r > 0.95 and r > 0.75, respectively, and small biases. Surface wind speeds reflect the complex topography and generally have correlations between 0.5 and 0.6, and positive biases of 1–2 m s−1. In the free atmosphere, r > 0.95 (geopotential height), r > 0.9 (temperature), and r > 0.8 (wind speed) at most sites. Over the annual cycle, there is little interseasonal variation in skill. Over the length of the forecast, a gradual decrease in skill is observed from hours 0–72. One exception is the surface pressure, which improves slightly in the first few hours, due in part to the model adjusting from surface pressure biases that are caused by the initialization technique over the high, cold terrain. The impact of the higher-resolution model domains over the McMurdo region is also evaluated. It is shown that the 3.3-km domain is more sensitive to spatial and temporal changes in the winds than the 10-km domain, which represents an overall improvement in forecast skill, especially on the windward side of the island where the Williams Field and Pegasus runways are situated, and in the lee of Ross Island, an important area of mesoscale cyclogenesis (although the correlation coefficients in these regions are still relatively low).

Recurrence Characteristics Analysis of Near-Surface Wind Speed Signal with Different Sampling Frequencies

2014 ◽  
Vol 599-601 ◽  
pp. 1605-1609 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming Zeng ◽  
Zhan Xie Wu ◽  
Qing Hao Meng ◽  
Jing Hai Li ◽  
Shu Gen Ma
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Recurrence Plot ◽  
Sampling Frequency ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Gas Leakage ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Characteristics Analysis ◽  
Quantification Analysis

The wind is the main factor to influence the propagation of gas in the atmosphere. Therefore, the wind signal obtained by anemometer will provide us valuable clues for searching gas leakage sources. In this paper, the Recurrence Plot (RP) and Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA) are applied to analyze the influence of recurrence characteristics of the wind speed time series under the condition of the same place, the same time period and with the sampling frequency of 1hz, 2hz, 4.2hz, 5hz, 8.3hz, 12.5hz and 16.7hz respectively. Research results show that when the sampling frequency is higher than 5hz, the trends of recurrence nature of different groups are basically unchanged. However, when the sampling frequency is set below 5hz, the original trend of recurrence nature is destroyed, because the recurrence characteristic curves obtained using different sampling frequencies appear cross or overlapping phenomena. The above results indicate that the anemometer will not be able to fully capture the detailed information in wind field when its sampling frequency is lower than 5hz. The recurrence characteristics analysis of the wind speed signals provides an important basis for the optimal selection of anemometer.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document