scholarly journals Is There an Optimal ENSO Pattern That Enhances Large-Scale Atmospheric Processes Conducive to Tornado Outbreaks in the United States?

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 1626-1642 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sang-Ki Lee ◽  
Robert Atlas ◽  
David Enfield ◽  
Chunzai Wang ◽  
Hailong Liu
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Positive Phase ◽  
Eastern Tropical Pacific ◽  
Climate Signal ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Tornado Outbreaks

Abstract The record-breaking U.S. tornado outbreaks in the spring of 2011 prompt the need to identify long-term climate signals that could potentially provide seasonal predictability for U.S. tornado outbreaks. This study uses both observations and model experiments to show that a positive phase TransNiño may be one such climate signal. Among the top 10 extreme outbreak years during 1950–2010, seven years including the top three are identified with a strongly positive phase TransNiño. The number of intense tornadoes in April–May is nearly doubled during the top 10 positive TransNiño years from that during 10 neutral years. TransNiño represents the evolution of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during the onset or decay phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. A positive phase TransNiño is characterized by colder than normal SSTs in the central tropical Pacific and warmer than normal SSTs in the eastern tropical Pacific. Modeling experiments suggest that warmer than normal SSTs in the eastern tropical Pacific work constructively with colder than normal SSTs in the central tropical Pacific to force a strong and persistent teleconnection pattern that increases both the upper-level westerly and lower-level southwesterly over the central and eastern United States. These anomalous winds advect more cold and dry upper-level air from the high latitudes and more warm and moist lower-level air from the Gulf of Mexico converging into the east of the Rockies, and also increase both the lower-tropospheric (0–6 km) and lower-level (0–1 km) vertical wind shear values therein, thus providing large-scale atmospheric conditions conducive to intense tornado outbreaks over the United States.

The Relation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to Winter Tornado Outbreaks

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (8) ◽  
pp. 3121-3137 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. R. Cook ◽  
J. T. Schaefer
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Tornado Outbreaks

Abstract Winter tornado activity (January–March) between 1950 and 2003 was analyzed to determine the possible effect of seasonally averaged sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the ENSO phase, on the location and strength of tornado outbreaks in the United States. Tornado activity was gauged through analyses of tornadoes occurring on tornado days (a calendar day featuring six or more tornadoes within the contiguous United States) and strong and violent tornado days (a calendar day featuring five or more tornadoes rated F2 and greater within the contiguous United States). The tornado days were then stratified according to warm (37 tornado days, 14 violent days), cold (51 tornado days, 28 violent days), and neutral (74 tornado days, 44 violent days) winter ENSO phase. It is seen that during winter periods of neutral tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, there is a tendency for U.S. tornado outbreaks to be stronger and more frequent than they are during winter periods of anomalously warm tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (El Niño). During winter periods with anomalously cool Pacific sea surface temperatures (La Niña), the frequency and strength of U.S. tornado activity lies between that of the neutral and El Niño phase. ENSO-related shifts in the preferred location of tornado activity are also observed. Historically, during the neutral phase, tornado outbreaks typically occurred from central Oklahoma and Kansas eastward through the Carolinas. During cold phases, tornado outbreaks have typically occurred in a zone stretching from southeastern Texas northeastward into Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan. During anomalously warm phases activity was mainly limited to the Gulf Coast states, including central Florida. The data are statistically and synoptically analyzed to show that they are not only statistically significant, but also meteorologically reasonable.

scholarly journals North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and U.S. Flooding

2014 ◽  
Vol 95 (9) ◽  
pp. 1381-1388 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriele Villarini ◽  
Radoslaw Goska ◽  
James A. Smith ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South Carolina ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Flood Peaks

Riverine flooding associated with North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) is responsible for large societal and economic impacts. The effects of TC flooding are not limited to the coastal regions, but affect large areas away from the coast, and often away from the center of the storm. Despite these important repercussions, inland TC flooding has received relatively little attention in the scientific literature, although there has been growing media attention following Hurricanes Irene (2011) and Sandy (2012). Based on discharge data from 1981 to 2011, the authors provide a climatological view of inland flooding associated with TCs, leveraging the wealth of discharge measurements collected, archived, and disseminated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Florida and the eastern seaboard of the United States (from South Carolina to Maine and Vermont) are the areas that are the most susceptible to TC flooding, with typical TC flood peaks that are 2 to 6 times larger than the local 10-yr flood peak, causing major flooding. A secondary swath of extensive TC-induced flooding in the central United States is also identified. These results indicate that flooding from TCs is not solely a coastal phenomenon but affects much larger areas of the United States, as far inland as Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Moreover, the authors highlight the dependence of the frequency and magnitude of TC flood peaks on large-scale climate indices, and the role played by the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO), suggesting potential sources of extended-range predictability.

Continental U.S. Hurricane Landfall Frequency and Associated Damage: Observations and Future Risks

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (7) ◽  
pp. 1359-1376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip J. Klotzbach ◽  
Steven G. Bowen ◽  
Roger Pielke ◽  
Michael Bell
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Coastal Population

AbstractContinental United States (CONUS) hurricane-related inflation-adjusted damage has increased significantly since 1900. However, since 1900 neither observed CONUS landfalling hurricane frequency nor intensity shows significant trends, including the devastating 2017 season.Two large-scale climate modes that have been noted in prior research to significantly impact CONUS landfalling hurricane activity are El Niño–Southern Oscillation on interannual time scales and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on multidecadal time scales. La Niña seasons tend to be characterized by more CONUS hurricane landfalls than El Niño seasons, and positive Atlantic multidecadal oscillation phases tend to have more CONUS hurricane landfalls than negative phases.Growth in coastal population and regional wealth are the overwhelming drivers of observed increases in hurricane-related damage. As the population and wealth of the United States has increased in coastal locations, it has invariably led to the growth in exposure and vulnerability of coastal property along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Unfortunately, the risks associated with more people and vulnerable exposure came to fruition in Texas and Florida during the 2017 season following the landfalls of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Total economic damage from those two storms exceeded $125 billion. Growth in coastal population and exposure is likely to continue in the future, and when hurricane landfalls do occur, this will likely lead to greater damage costs than previously seen. Such a statement is made recognizing that the vast scope of damage from hurricanes often highlights the effectiveness (or lack thereof) of building codes, flood maps, infrastructure, and insurance in at-risk communities.

scholarly journals The Impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Winter and Early Spring U.S. Tornado Outbreaks

2017 ◽  
Vol 56 (9) ◽  
pp. 2455-2478 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashton Robinson Cook ◽  
Lance M. Leslie ◽  
David B. Parsons ◽  
Joseph T. Schaefer
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Early Spring ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Tornado Outbreaks

AbstractIn recent years, the potential of seasonal outlooks for tornadoes has attracted the attention of researchers. Previous studies on this topic have focused mainly on the influence of global circulation patterns [e.g., El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation, or Pacific decadal oscillation] on spring tornadoes. However, these studies have yielded conflicting results of the roles of these climate drivers on tornado intensity and frequency. The present study seeks to establish linkages between ENSO and tornado outbreaks over the United States during winter and early spring. These linkages are established in two ways: 1) statistically, by relating raw counts of tornadoes in outbreaks (defined as six or more tornadoes in a 24-h period in the United States east of the Rocky Mountains), and their destructive potential, to sea surface temperature anomalies observed in the Niño-3.4 region, and 2) qualitatively, by relating ENSO to shifts in synoptic-scale atmospheric phenomena that contribute to tornado outbreaks. The latter approach is critical for interpreting the statistical relationships, thereby avoiding the deficiencies in a few of the previous studies that did not provide physical explanations relating ENSO to shifts in tornado activity. The results suggest that shifts in tornado occurrence are clearly related to ENSO. In particular, La Niña conditions consistently foster more frequent and intense tornado activity in comparison with El Niño, particularly at higher latitudes. Furthermore, it is found that tornado activity changes are tied not only to the location and intensity of the subtropical jet during individual outbreaks but also to the positions of surface cyclones, low-level jet streams, and instability axes.

United States – Measures Concerning the Importation, Marketing and Sale of Tuna and Tuna Products (US–Tuna II (Mexico) (Recourse to Article 21.5 of the DSU by the United States / Second Recourse to Article 21.5 of the DSU by Mexico), DS381

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 469-471
Author(s):  
Maria Alcover
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The United States ◽  
Tropical Pacific Ocean ◽  
Eastern Tropical Pacific ◽  
Eligibility Criteria ◽  
Record Keeping ◽  
The World ◽  
The One ◽  
Certification Requirements

These compliance proceedings concern a second revised measure adopted by the United States regarding the labelling of dolphin-safe tuna products (the 2016 Tuna Measure). The 2016 Tuna Measure places three types of conditions on the use of the dolphin-safe label: (i) conditions relating to the automatic disqualification of certain tuna products (eligibility criteria); (ii) conditions relating to certifications (certification requirements); and (iii) conditions relating to record keeping and segregation of dolphin-safe and non-dolphin-safe tuna (tracking and verification requirements). Regarding the eligibility criteria, tuna harvested using large-scale driftnets on the high seas and tuna products containing tuna harvested by setting on dolphins anywhere in the world are automatically disqualified for the dolphin-safe label. Regarding the certification and tracking/verification requirements, the 2016 Tuna Measure makes a distinction between the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean (ETP) large purse seine fishery, on the one hand, and all other fisheries, on the other hand.

scholarly journals Effects of large-scale oceanic phenomena on non-cholera vibriosis incidence in the United States: implications for climate change

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chloë Logar-Henderson ◽  
Rebecca Ling ◽  
Ashleigh R. Tuite ◽  
David N. Fisman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Relative Risk ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
The United States ◽  
Ocean Warming ◽  
Causes Of Disease

Abstract Non-cholera Vibrio (NCV) species are important causes of disease. These pathogens are thermophilic and climate change could increase the risk of NCV infection. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a ‘natural experiment’ that may presage ocean warming effects on disease incidence. In order to evaluate possible climatic contributions to observed increases in NCV infection, we obtained NCV case counts for the United States from publicly available surveillance data. Trends and impacts of large-scale oceanic phenomena, including ENSO, were evaluated using negative binomial and distributed non-linear lag models (DNLM). Associations between latitude and changing risk were evaluated with meta-regression. Trend models demonstrated expected seasonality (P < 0.001) and a 7% (6.1%–8.1%) annual increase in incidence from 1999 to 2014. DNLM demonstrated increased vibriosis risk following ENSO conditions over the subsequent 12 months (relative risk 1.940, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.298–2.901). The ‘relative–relative risk’ (RRR) of annual disease incidence increased with latitude (RRR per 10° increase 1.066, 95% CI 1.027–1.107). We conclude that NCV risk in the United States is impacted by ocean warming, which is likely to intensify with climate change, increasing NCV risk in vulnerable populations.

Quality Control of Data in a Large-Scale Cancer Register Program

1966 ◽  
Vol 05 (02) ◽  
pp. 67-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. I. Lourie ◽  
W. Haenszeland
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Quality Control ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The United States ◽  
Newly Diagnosed ◽  
Related Data ◽  
Cancer Register ◽  
Independent Review ◽  
End Results

Quality control of data collected in the United States by the Cancer End Results Program utilizing punchcards prepared by participating registries in accordance with a Uniform Punchcard Code is discussed. Existing arrangements decentralize responsibility for editing and related data processing to the local registries with centralization of tabulating and statistical services in the End Results Section, National Cancer Institute. The most recent deck of punchcards represented over 600,000 cancer patients; approximately 50,000 newly diagnosed cases are added annually.Mechanical editing and inspection of punchcards and field audits are the principal tools for quality control. Mechanical editing of the punchcards includes testing for blank entries and detection of in-admissable or inconsistent codes. Highly improbable codes are subjected to special scrutiny. Field audits include the drawing of a 1-10 percent random sample of punchcards submitted by a registry; the charts are .then reabstracted and recoded by a NCI staff member and differences between the punchcard and the results of independent review are noted.

Utopias of One

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Kotin
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
World War I ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Jim Crow ◽  
Personal Autonomy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Soviet Period ◽  
Original Research ◽  
The Soviet Union

This book is a new account of utopian writing. It examines how eight writers—Henry David Thoreau, W. E. B. Du Bois, Osip and Nadezhda Mandel'shtam, Anna Akhmatova, Wallace Stevens, Ezra Pound, and J. H. Prynne—construct utopias of one within and against modernity's two large-scale attempts to harmonize individual and collective interests: liberalism and communism. The book begins in the United States between the buildup to the Civil War and the end of Jim Crow; continues in the Soviet Union between Stalinism and the late Soviet period; and concludes in England and the United States between World War I and the end of the Cold War. In this way it captures how writers from disparate geopolitical contexts resist state and normative power to construct perfect worlds—for themselves alone. The book contributes to debates about literature and politics, presenting innovative arguments about aesthetic difficulty, personal autonomy, and complicity and dissent. It models a new approach to transnational and comparative scholarship, combining original research in English and Russian to illuminate more than a century and a half of literary and political history.

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