Understanding the Anthropogenically Forced Change of Equatorial Pacific Trade Winds in Coupled Climate Models*

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (22) ◽  
pp. 8510-8526 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baoqiang Xiang ◽  
Bin Wang ◽  
Juan Li ◽  
Ming Zhao ◽  
June-Yi Lee
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Trade Wind ◽  
Trade Winds ◽  
The Walker Circulation

Abstract Understanding the change of equatorial Pacific trade winds is pivotal for understanding the global mean temperature change and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) property change. The weakening of the Walker circulation due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing was suggested as one of the most robust phenomena in current climate models by examining zonal sea level pressure gradient over the tropical Pacific. This study explores another component of the Walker circulation change focusing on equatorial Pacific trade wind change. Model sensitivity experiments demonstrate that the direct/fast response due to GHG forcing is to increase the trade winds, especially over the equatorial central-western Pacific (ECWP) (5°S–5°N, 140°E–150°W), while the indirect/slow response associated with sea surface temperature (SST) warming weakens the trade winds. Further, analysis of the results from 19 models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and the Parallel Ocean Program (POP)–Ocean Atmosphere Sea Ice Soil (OASIS)–ECHAM model (POEM) shows that the projected weakening of the trades is robust only in the equatorial eastern Pacific (EEP) ( 5°S–5°N, 150°–80°W), but highly uncertain over the ECWP with 9 out of 19 CMIP5 models producing intensified trades. The prominent and robust weakening of EEP trades is suggested to be mainly driven by a top-down mechanism: the mean vertical advection of more upper-tropospheric warming downward to generate a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the southeast tropical Pacific. In the ECWP, the large intermodel spread is primarily linked to model diversity in simulating the relative warming of the equatorial Pacific versus the tropical mean sea surface temperature. The possible root causes of the uncertainty for the trade wind change are also discussed.

What Controls the Mean East–West Sea Surface Temperature Gradient in the Equatorial Pacific: The Role of Cloud Albedo

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (7) ◽  
pp. 2757-2778 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. J. Burls ◽  
A. V. Fedorov
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Gradient ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature Gradient ◽  
The Mean ◽  
East West ◽  
Surface Temperature Gradient

Abstract The mean east–west sea surface temperature gradient along the equator is a key feature of tropical climate. Tightly coupled to the atmospheric Walker circulation and the oceanic east–west thermocline tilt, it effectively defines tropical climate conditions. In the Pacific, its presence permits the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon. What determines this temperature gradient within the fully coupled ocean–atmosphere system is therefore a central question in climate dynamics, critical for understanding past and future climates. Using a comprehensive coupled model [Community Earth System Model (CESM)], the authors demonstrate how the meridional gradient in cloud albedo between the tropics and midlatitudes (Δα) sets the mean east–west sea surface temperature gradient in the equatorial Pacific. To change Δα in the numerical experiments, the authors change the optical properties of clouds by modifying the atmospheric water path, but only in the shortwave radiation scheme of the model. When Δα is varied from approximately −0.15 to 0.1, the east–west SST contrast in the equatorial Pacific reduces from 7.5°C to less than 1°C and the Walker circulation nearly collapses. These experiments reveal a near-linear dependence between Δα and the zonal temperature gradient, which generally agrees with results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) preindustrial control simulations. The authors explain the close relation between the two variables using an energy balance model incorporating the essential dynamics of the warm pool, cold tongue, and Walker circulation complex.

scholarly journals Causal effect of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature on the Upper Colorado River Basin spring precipitation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siyu Zhao ◽  
Jiaying Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Spring Precipitation ◽  
Upper Colorado River Basin ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

AbstractThe Colorado River is one of the most important rivers in the southwestern U.S., with ~ 90% of the total flow originating from the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). The UCRB April–July streamflow is well-correlated to the UCRB spring precipitation. It is known that the UCRB precipitation is linked to an El Niño-like sea surface temperature (SST) pattern, but the causal effect of the tropical Pacific SST on the UCRB spring precipitation is still uncertain. Here, we apply a Granger causality approach to understand the causal effect of the tropical Pacific averaged SST in previous three seasons (winter, fall, and summer) on the UCRB averaged precipitation in spring in observations and two climate models. In observations, only the winter SST has Granger causal effect (with p-value ~ 0.05) on spring precipitation, while historical simulations of the two climate models overestimate the causal effect for winter and fall (with p-value < 0.01 and < 0.05, respectively) due to model biases. Moreover, future projections of the two climate models show divergent causal effects, especially for the scenario with high anthropogenic emissions. The divergent projections indicate that (1) there are large uncertainties in model projections of the causal effect of the tropical Pacific SST on UCRB spring precipitation and (2) it is uncertain whether climate models can reliably capture changes in such causality. These uncertainties may result in large uncertainties in seasonal forecasts of the UCRB hydroclimate under global climate change.

scholarly journals Diurnal Restratification Events in the Southeast Pacific Trade Wind Regime

2014 ◽  
Vol 44 (9) ◽  
pp. 2569-2587 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert A. Weller ◽  
Sudip Majumder ◽  
Amit Tandon
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Trade Wind ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Surface Mixed Layer ◽  
Wind Regime ◽  
Trade Winds ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Mean Sea Surface

Abstract This paper describes the occurrence of diurnal restratification events found in the southeast trade wind regime off northern Chile. This is a region where persistent marine stratus clouds are found and where there is a less than complete understanding of the dynamics that govern the maintenance of the sea surface temperature. A surface mooring deployed in the region provides surface meteorological, air–sea flux, and upper-ocean temperature, salinity, and velocity data. In the presence of steady southeast trade winds and strong evaporation, a warm, salty surface mixed layer is found in the upper ocean. During the year, these trade winds, at times, drop dramatically and surface heating leads to the formation of shallow, warm diurnal mixed layers over one to several days. At the end of such a low wind period, mean sea surface temperature is warmer. Though magnitudes of the individual diurnal warming events are consistent with local forcing, as judged by running a one-dimensional model, the net warming at the end of a low wind event is more difficult to predict. This is found to stem from differences between the observed and predicted near-inertial shear and the depths over which the warmed water is distributed. As a result, the evolution of SST has a dependency on these diurnal restratification events and on near-surface processes that govern the depth over which the heat gained during such events is distributed.

Observed Strengthening of the Zonal Sea Surface Temperature Gradient across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean*

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (16) ◽  
pp. 4316-4321 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristopher B. Karnauskas ◽  
Richard Seager ◽  
Alexey Kaplan ◽  
Yochanan Kushnir ◽  
Mark A. Cane
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Recent Attempt ◽  
Sst Gradient ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract Decadal variations of very small amplitude [∼0.3°C in sea surface temperature (SST)] in the tropical Pacific Ocean, the genesis region of the interannual El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, have been shown to have powerful impacts on global climate. Future projections from different climate models do not agree on how this critical feature will change under the influence of anthropogenic forcing. A number of attempts have been made to resolve this issue by examining observed trends from the 1880s to the present, a period of rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. A recent attempt concluded that the three major datasets disagreed on the trend in the equatorial gradient of SST. Using a corrected version of one of these datasets, and extending the analysis to the seasonal cycle, it is shown here that all agree that the equatorial Pacific zonal SST gradient has strengthened from 1880 to 2005 during the boreal fall when this gradient is normally strongest. This result appears to favor a theory for future changes based on ocean dynamics over one based on atmospheric energy considerations. Both theories incorporate the expectation, based on ENSO theory, that the zonal sea level pressure (SLP) gradient in the tropical Pacific is coupled to SST and should therefore strengthen along with the SST gradient. While the SLP gradient has not strengthened, it is found that it appears to have weakened only during boreal spring, consistent with the SST seasonal trends. Most of the coupled models included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report underestimate the strengthening SST gradient in boreal fall, and show almost no change in the SLP gradient in any season. The observational analyses herein suggest that both theories are at work but with relative strengths that vary seasonally, and that the two theories need not be inconsistent with each other.

scholarly journals CMIP6 model-based analog forecasting for the seasonal prediction of sea surface temperature in the offshore area of China

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Weiying Peng ◽  
Quanliang Chen ◽  
Shijie Zhou ◽  
Ping Huang
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Initial State ◽  
Initial Field ◽  
Offshore Area ◽  
Model Based

AbstractSeasonal forecasts at lead times of 1–12 months for sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (SSTAs) in the offshore area of China are a considerable challenge for climate prediction in China. Previous research suggests that a model-based analog forecasting (MAF) method based on the simulations of coupled global climate models provide skillful climate forecasts of tropical Indo-Pacific SSTAs. This MAF method selects the model-simulated cases close to the observed initial state as a model-analog ensemble, and then uses the subsequent evolution of the SSTA to generate the forecasts. In this study, the MAF method is applied to the offshore area of China (0°–45°N, 105°–135°E) based on the simulations of 23 models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for the period 1981–2010. By optimizing the key factors in the MAF method, we suggest that the optimal initial field for the analog criteria should be concentrated in the western North Pacific. The multi-model ensemble of the optimized MAF prediction using these 23 CMIP6 models shows anomaly correlation coefficients exceeding 0.6 at the 3-month lead time, which is much improved relative to previous SST-initialized hindcasts and appears practical for operational forecasting.

scholarly journals Sea-surface temperature records of Termination 1 in the Gulf of California: Challenges for seasonal and interannual analogues of tropical Pacific climate change

2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
Erin L. McClymont ◽  
Raja S. Ganeshram ◽  
Laetitia E. Pichevin ◽  
Helen M. Talbot ◽  
Bart E. van Dongen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Gulf Of California ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Temperature Records
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document