Statistical Seasonal Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Landfall on South China Utilizing Preseason Predictors

Predicting tropical cyclone (TC) activities has been a topic of great interest and research. Many existing seasonal forecasting models of TC predict the numbers of TC geneses and landfalls based on the environmental factors in the peak TC season. Here, we utilize the mainstream reanalysis datasets in 1979–2005 and propose a statistical seasonal forecasting model, namely the SYSU model, for predicting the number of TC landfalls on South China based on the preseason environmental factors. The multiple linear regression analysis shows that the April sea level pressure over the tropical central Pacific, the March-April mean sea surface temperature southwest to Australia, the March 850-hPa zonal wind east to Japan, and the April 500-hPa zonal wind over Bay of Bengal are the significant predictors. The model is validated by the leave-one-out cross validation and recent 15-year observations (2006–2020). The correlation coefficient between the modeled results and observations reaches 0.87 (p < 0.01). The SYSU model exhibits 90% hit rate (38 out of 42) in 1979–2020. The Antarctic Oscillation, and the variations of the western North Pacific subtropical high and Intertropical Convergence Zone could be the possible physical linkages or mechanisms. The model demonstrates an operational potential in the seasonal forecasting of TC landfall on South China.

Validation of Recent Altimeter Missions at Non-Dedicated Tide Gauge Stations in the Southeastern North Sea

Consistent calibration and monitoring is a basic prerequisite for providing a reliable time series of global and regional sea-level variations from altimetry. The precisions of sea-level measurements and regional biases for six altimeter missions (Jason-1/2/3, Envisat, Saral, Sentinel-3A) are assessed in this study at 11 GNSS-controlled tide gauge stations in the German Bight (SE North Sea) for the period 2002 to 2019. The gauges are partly located at the open water, and partly at the coast close to mudflats. The altimetry is extracted at virtual stations with distances from 2 to 24 km from the gauges. The processing is optimized for the region and adjusted for the comparison with instantaneous tide gauge readings. An empirical correction is developed to account for mean height gradients and slight differences of the tidal dynamics between the gauge and altimetry, which improves the agreement between the two data sets by 15–75%. The precision of the altimeters depends on the location and mission and ranges from 1.8 to 3.7 cm if the precision of the gauges is 2 cm. The accuracy of the regional mission biases is strongly dependent on the mean sea surface heights near the stations. The most consistent biases are obtained based on the CLS2011 model with mission-dependent accuracies from 1.3 to 3.4 cm. Hence, the GNSS-controlled tide gauges operated operationally by the German Waterway and Shipping Administration (WSV) might complement the calibration and monitoring activities at dedicated CalVal stations.

Validation of Recent Altimeter Missions at Non-dedicated Tide Gauge Stations in the Southeastern North Sea

Consistent calibration and monitoring is a basic prerequisite for providing reliable time series of global and regional sea level variations from altimetry. The precision of sea level measurements and regional biases for six altimeter missions (Jason-1/2/3, Envisat, Saral, Sentinel-3A) is assessed at eleven GNSS-controlled tide gauge stations in the German Bight (SE North Sea) for the period 2002 to 2019. The gauges are partly located at the open water, partly at the coast close to mudflats. The altimetry is extracted at virtual stations with distances from 2 to 24 km from the gauges. The processing is optimized for the region and adjusted for the comparison with instantaneous tide gauges readings. An empirical correction is developed to account for mean height gradients and slight differences of the tidal dynamics between gauge and altimetry which improves the agreement between the two data sets by 15-75%. The precision of the altimeters is depending on location and mission and is shown to be at least 1.8 to 3.7 cm based on an assumed precision of 2 cm for the gauges. The accuracy of the regional mission biases is strongly dependent on the mean sea surface heights near the stations. The most consistent biases are obtained based on the CLS2011 model with mission dependent accuracies from 1.3 to 3.4 cm. Hence, the GNSS-controlled tide gauges operated operationally by WSV might complement the calibration and monitoring activities at dedicated CalVal stations.

Diel cycle of sea spray aerosol concentration

Sea spray aerosol (SSA) formation have a major role in the climate system, but measurements at a global-scale of this micro-scale process are highly challenging. We measured high-resolution temporal patterns of SSA number concentration over the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and the Pacific Ocean covering over 42,000 km. We discovered a ubiquitous 24-hour rhythm to the SSA number concentration, with concentrations increasing after sunrise, remaining higher during the day, and returning to predawn values after sunset. The presence of dominating continental aerosol transport can mask the SSA cycle. We did not find significant links between the diel cycle of SSA number concentration and diel variations of surface winds, atmospheric physical properties, radiation, pollution, nor oceanic physical properties. However, the daily mean sea surface temperature positively correlated with the magnitude of the day-to-nighttime increase in SSA concentration. Parallel diel patterns in particle sizes were also detected in near-surface waters attributed to variations in the size of particles smaller than ~1 µm. These variations may point to microbial day-to-night modulation of bubble-bursting dynamics as a possible cause of the SSA cycle.

Regional Mean Sea Surface and Mean Dynamic Topography Models Around Malaysian Seas Developed From 27 Years of Along-Track Multi-Mission Satellite Altimetry Data

Contemporary Universiti Teknologi Malaysia 2020 Mean Sea Surface (UTM20 MSS) and Mean Dynamic Topography (UTM20 MDT) models around Malaysian seas are introduced in this study. These regional models are computed via scrutinizing along-track sea surface height (SSH) points and specific interpolation methods. A 1.5-min resolution of UTM20 MSS is established by integrating 27 years of along-track multi-mission satellite altimetry covering 1993–2019 and considering the 19-year moving average technique. The Exact Repeat Mission (ERM) collinear analysis, reduction of sea level variability of geodetic mission (GM) data, crossover adjustment, and data gridding are presented as part of the MSS computation. The UTM20 MDT is derived using a pointwise approach from the differences between UTM20 MSS and the local gravimetric geoid. UTM20 MSS and MDT reliability are validated with the latest Technical University of Denmark (DTU) and Collecte Localisation Services (CLS) models along with coastal tide gauges. The findings presented that the UTM20, CLS15, and DTU18 MSS models exhibit good agreement. Besides, UTM20 MDT is also in good agreement with CLS18 and DTU15 MDT models with an accuracy of 5.1 and 5.5 cm, respectively. The results also indicate that UTM20 MDT statistically achieves better accuracy than global models compared to tide gauges. Meanwhile, the UTM20 MSS accuracy is within 7.5 cm. These outcomes prove that UTM20 MSS and MDT models yield significant improvement compared to the previous regional models developed by UTM, denoted as MSS1 and MSS2 in this study.

Paleotemperature record of the Middle Devonian Kačák Episode

The Middle Devonian Epoch, ~ 393–383 million years ago, is known for a peak in diversity and highest latitudinal distribution of coral and stromatoporoid reefs. About 388 million years ago, during the late Eifelian and earliest Givetian, climax conditions were interrupted by the polyphased Kačák Episode, a short-lived period of marine dys-/anoxia associated with climate warming that lasted less than 500 kyr. Reconstruction of the seawater temperature contributes to a better understanding of the climate conditions marine biota were exposed to during the event interval. To date, conodont apatite-based paleotemperatures across the Eifelian–Givetian boundary interval have been published from Belarus, France, Germany and North America (10–36° S paleolatitude). Here we provide new δ18Oapatite data from the Carnic Alps (Austria, Italy) and the Prague Synform (Czech Republic). For better approximation of the paleotemperature record across the Kačák Episode, a latitude-dependent correction for Middle Devonian seawater δ18O is applied. Because δ18Oapatite data from shallow marine sections are influenced by regional salinity variations, calculated mean sea surface temperatures (SST) are restricted to more open marine settings (22–34° S paleolatitude). Water temperatures reach ~ 34 °C in the Prague Synform and ~ 33 °C in the Carnic Alps and suggest that SSTs of the southern hemisphere low latitudes were ~ 6 °C higher than previously assumed for this time interval.

Construction of the Mean Sea Surface Model Combined HY-2A With DTU18 MSS in the Antarctic Ocean

A new Mean Sea Surface (MSS) model called Shandong University of Science and Technology Antarctic Mean Sea Surface model (SDUST_ANT MSS) in the Antarctic Ocean is presented and validated in this paper. The SDUST_ANT MSS updates the DTU18 MSS with 6 years of Exact Repeat Mission (ERM) and Geodetic Mission (GM) data from HY-2A. Collinear adjustment was applied to all the ERM data to obtain the along-track mean sea surface height. Oceanic variability has been removed from the GM data. Crossover adjustment was applied to both the ERM and GM data. We constructed the HY-2A_MSS using HY-2A altimetry data based on optimal interpolation method. Several types of errors (such as white noise, residual effect of oceanic variability, and long wavelength bias) have been taken into account for the determination of MSS using optimal interpolation method. The SDUST_ANT MSS was constructed by mapping HY-2A_MSS onto the DTU18 MSS. The SDUST_ANT MSS was compared with DTU18 MSS and CNES_CLS15 MSS. At wavelengths below 150 km, differences between models are consistent with seafloor topographic gradient. At wavelengths above 150 km, differences are affected by the mesoscale activities and the altimetry errors in coastal areas. The errors of the three models, as indicated by their power spectral densities (PSDs), are of similar orders of magnitude. The absolute error is slightly smaller in SDUST_ANT than in CNES_CLS15 or DTU18.

A Comparison of Global Surface Air Temperature Over the Oceans Between CMIP5 Models and NCEP Reanalysis

By utilizing eight CMIP5 model outputs in historical experiment that simulated daily mean sea surface temperature (SST) and NCEP reanalysis data over 12 ocean basins around the world from 1960 to 2005, this paper evaluates the performance of CMIP5 models based on the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method. The results of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data showed that the SST in most ocean basins of the world had long-range correlation (LRC) characteristics. The DFA values of the SST over ocean basins are large in the tropics and small in high latitudes. In spring and autumn, the zonal average DFA of SST are basically distributed symmetrically in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. In summer, the zonal average values of DFA in the Northern Hemisphere are larger than those in the southern hemisphere, and vice versa in winter. The performance of HadGEM2-AO, CNRM-CM5, and IPSL-CM5A-MR are all relative well among the eight models in simulating SST over most regions of the global ocean.

Sea Topography of the Ionian and Adriatic Seas Using Repeated GNSS Measurements

The mean sea surface topography of the Ionian and Adriatic Seas has been determined. This was based on six-months of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements which were performed on the Ionian Queen (a ship). The measurements were analyzed following a double-path methodology based on differential GNSS (D-GNSS) and precise point positioning (PPP) analysis. Numerical filtering techniques, multi-parametric accuracy analysis and a new technique for removing the meteorological tide factors were also used. Results were compared with the EGM96 geoid model. The calculated differences ranged between 0 and 48 cm. The error of the results was estimated to fall within 3.31 cm. The 3D image of the marine topography in the region shows a nearly constant slope of 4 cm/km in the N–S direction. Thus, the effectiveness of the approach “repeated GNSS measurements on the same route of a ship” developed in the context of “GNSS methods on floating means” has been demonstrated. The application of this approach using systematic multi-track recordings on conventional liner ships is very promising, as it may open possibilities for widespread use of the methodology across the world.