Modulation of Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity by the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) from 1905 to 2011

2014 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 204-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip J. Klotzbach ◽  
Eric C. J. Oliver
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) has been demonstrated to play a role in tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the globe in a number of recent studies. While the impact of the MJO on TCs in the Atlantic basin since the mid-1970s has been well documented, a newly developed 107-yr-long index for the MJO allows for additional analysis of the impacts of the MJO on Atlantic TC activity. TC activity in the Atlantic increases when MJO-related convection is enhanced over Africa and the Indian Ocean, while TC activity in the Atlantic is suppressed when the MJO enhances convection over the western Pacific. This long-term record of the MJO also allows for the analysis of how the MJO’s impacts may be modulated by other climate modes, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over interannual time scales and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) over multidecadal time scales. When climatologically unfavorable conditions such as an El Niño event or a negative AMO phase are present, even TC-favorable MJO conditions are not enough to generate statistically significant increases in TC activity from the long-term average across the Atlantic basin. However, climatologically favorable conditions during a La Niña event or a warm AMO phase act to enhance the modulation of TC activity over the Atlantic basin by the MJO.

North-Central Pacific Tropical Cyclones: Impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Madden–Julian Oscillation

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (19) ◽  
pp. 7720-7733 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip J. Klotzbach ◽  
Eric S. Blake
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
North Central ◽  
The North

Abstract Both El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) have been documented in previous research to impact tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the globe. This study examines the relationship of each mode individually along with a combined index on tropical cyclone activity in the north-central Pacific. Approximately twice as many tropical cyclones form in the north-central Pacific in El Niño years compared with La Niña years. These differences are attributed to a variety of factors, including warmer sea surface temperatures, lower sea level pressures, increased midlevel moisture, and anomalous midlevel ascent in El Niño years. When the convectively enhanced phase of the MJO is located over the eastern and central tropical Pacific, the north-central Pacific tends to have more tropical cyclone activity, likely because of reduced vertical wind shear, lower sea level pressures, and increased vertical motion. The convectively enhanced phase of the MJO is also responsible for most of the TCs that undergo rapid intensification in the north-central Pacific. A combined MJO–ENSO index that is primarily associated with anomalous rising motion over the tropical eastern Pacific has an even stronger relationship with north-central Pacific TCs, as well as rapid intensification, than either individually.

scholarly journals The Uncharacteristic Occurrence of the June 2013 Biomass-Burning Haze Event in Southeast Asia: Effects of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Tropical Cyclone Activity

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yaasiin Oozeer ◽  
Andy Chan ◽  
Jun Wang ◽  
Jeffrey S. Reid ◽  
Santo V. Salinas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Biomass Burning ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Active Fire ◽  
Haze Event ◽  
Extreme Fire

One of the worst haze events to ever hit Peninsular Malaysia occurred in June 2013 due to smoke from Riau, Central Sumatra. While biomass-burning in the region is common, the early occurrence of a haze episode of this magnitude was uncharacteristic of the seasonality of extreme fire events, which usually occur between August and October in the Maritime Continent (MC). This study aims to investigate the phenomenology of the June 2013 haze event and its underlying meteorological forcing agents. The aerosol and meteorological environment during the event is examined using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) active fire hotspot detections and aerosol optical thickness retrievals, satellite-based precipitation retrievals, and meteorological indices. These datasets are then supported by a WRF-Chem simulation to provide a comprehensive picture of the event’s meteorology and aerosol transport phenomenology. While extreme fire events are more characteristic of El Nino years, the MODIS fire count over the MC in June for the years 2001–2015 was highest in 2013 when neutral El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions prevailed. Although, the mean daily precipitation for June 2013 was below average for June 2003–2015. An early active tropical cyclone (TC) season occurred in 2013, and results show that the combined induced subsidence and flow enhancement due to TC Bebinca and the dry phases of a strong Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) event contributed to the event intensification. Results also show that Bebinca induced a decrease in surface relative humidity of at least 10% over Riau, where fire hotspots were concentrated.

scholarly journals The Impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Meridional Mode on Seasonal Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (14) ◽  
pp. 5311-5328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christina M. Patricola ◽  
R. Saravanan ◽  
Ping Chang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Mode ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

Abstract Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity is influenced by interannual tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability characterized by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as well as interannual-to-decadal variability in the interhemispheric gradient in tropical Atlantic SST characterized by the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM). Individually, the negative AMM phase (cool northern and warm southern tropical Atlantic SST anomalies) and El Niño each inhibit Atlantic TCs, and vice versa. The impact of concurrent strong phases of the ENSO and AMM on Atlantic TC activity is investigated. The response of the atmospheric environment relevant for TCs is evaluated with a genesis potential index. Composites of observed accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) suggest that ENSO and AMM can amplify or dampen the influence of one another on Atlantic TCs. To support the observational analysis, numerical simulations are performed using a 27-km resolution regional climate model. The control simulation uses observed SST and lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) of 1980–2000, and perturbed experiments are forced with ENSO phases through LBCs and eastern tropical Pacific SST and AMM phases through Atlantic SST. Simultaneous strong El Niño and strongly positive AMM, as well as strong concurrent La Niña and negative AMM, produce near-average Atlantic ACE suggesting compensation between the two influences, consistent with the observational analysis. Strong La Niña and strongly positive AMM together produce extremely intense Atlantic TC activity, supported largely by above average midtropospheric humidity, while strong El Niño and negative AMM together are not necessary conditions for significantly reduced Atlantic tropical cyclone activity.

Continental U.S. Hurricane Landfall Frequency and Associated Damage: Observations and Future Risks

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (7) ◽  
pp. 1359-1376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip J. Klotzbach ◽  
Steven G. Bowen ◽  
Roger Pielke ◽  
Michael Bell
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Coastal Population

AbstractContinental United States (CONUS) hurricane-related inflation-adjusted damage has increased significantly since 1900. However, since 1900 neither observed CONUS landfalling hurricane frequency nor intensity shows significant trends, including the devastating 2017 season.Two large-scale climate modes that have been noted in prior research to significantly impact CONUS landfalling hurricane activity are El Niño–Southern Oscillation on interannual time scales and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on multidecadal time scales. La Niña seasons tend to be characterized by more CONUS hurricane landfalls than El Niño seasons, and positive Atlantic multidecadal oscillation phases tend to have more CONUS hurricane landfalls than negative phases.Growth in coastal population and regional wealth are the overwhelming drivers of observed increases in hurricane-related damage. As the population and wealth of the United States has increased in coastal locations, it has invariably led to the growth in exposure and vulnerability of coastal property along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Unfortunately, the risks associated with more people and vulnerable exposure came to fruition in Texas and Florida during the 2017 season following the landfalls of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Total economic damage from those two storms exceeded $125 billion. Growth in coastal population and exposure is likely to continue in the future, and when hurricane landfalls do occur, this will likely lead to greater damage costs than previously seen. Such a statement is made recognizing that the vast scope of damage from hurricanes often highlights the effectiveness (or lack thereof) of building codes, flood maps, infrastructure, and insurance in at-risk communities.

The impact of El Niño on mast fruiting in Sumatra and elsewhere in Malesia

2000 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 563-577 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. A. Wich ◽  
C. P. Van Schaik
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Fruit Production ◽  
Forest Community ◽  
Tropical Rain Forests ◽  
Mast Fruiting ◽  
Oscillation Phenomenon ◽  
The Impact

Long-term data on flower and fruit production of the forest community in two lowland tropical rain forests in north-western Sumatra are presented. The proportion of years with mast fruiting was found to be similar to that found elsewhere in Malesia. However, masting at the two sites, 70 km apart, did not coincide, and showed no correlation with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO). Comparisons with other sites in Malesia suggest a general waning of ENSO's impact toward western Malesia. Spatial variation at various scales in the timing of masting events was noted in Sumatra and elsewhere. This suggests that additional factors to ENSO play a role in determining forest-level mast fruiting, and we hypothesize that frugivorous animals have the opportunity to track mast fruiting. It is hypothesized that asynchrony between nearby areas in masting increases toward the western edge of Malesia.

scholarly journals Comparison of the Madden–Julian Oscillation-Related Tropical Cyclone Genesis over the South China Sea and Western North Pacific under Different El Niño-Southern Oscillation Conditions

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 183
Author(s):  
Chengyao Ye ◽  
Liping Deng ◽  
Wan-Ru Huang ◽  
Jinghua Chen
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
South China Sea ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
La Nina

This paper explores the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) modulation of tropical cyclone (TC; hereafter, MJO-TC) genesis over the South China Sea (SCS) and Western North Pacific (WNP) under different El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions. Analyses used Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best-track data, the Real-Time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index, and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim (ERA-Interim) reanalysis data. The results showed that the MJO has significant modulation on both the SCS and WNP TC genesis in neutral years, with more (fewer) TCs forming during the active (inactive) MJO phases. However, during the El Niño and La Niña years, the MJO-TC genesis modulation over the two regions differs from each other. Over the SCS, the MJO modulation of TC genesis is stronger in the La Niña years, while it becomes weaker in the El Niño years. Over the WNP, the MJO has a stronger influence on TC genesis in the El Niño years compared to that in the La Niña years. Related Genesis Potential Index (GPI) analysis suggests that midlevel moisture is the primary factor and vorticity is the secondary factor, for the MJO-TC genesis modulation over the SCS in the La Niña years. Over the WNP, midlevel moisture is the dominant factor for the MJO-TC genesis modulation during the El Niño years. These results can be explained by increased water vapor transport from the Bay of Bengal, associated with enhanced westerly wind anomalies, during the active phases relative to the inactive MJO phases; these conditions prevail over the SCS during the La Niña years, and over the WNP during the El Niño years.

scholarly journals El Niño–Southern Oscillation’s Impact on Atlantic Basin Hurricanes and U.S. Landfalls

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 1252-1263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip J. Klotzbach
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
El Niño ◽  
East Coast ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
Enso Events

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been shown in many previous papers to impact seasonal levels of Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity. This paper revisits this relationship by examining a longer period (1900–2009) than has been examined in earlier analyses. Alterations in large-scale climate parameters, especially vertical wind shear, are shown to be the primary reasons why tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic is reduced in El Niño years. Climate signals are found to be somewhat stronger in the Caribbean than for the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. The focus of the paper then shifts to U.S. landfalls, confirming previous research that U.S. landfalls are reduced in El Niño years. The reduction in landfall frequency is greater along the Florida peninsula and East Coast than it is along the Gulf Coast, especially for major hurricanes. The probability of each state being impacted by a hurricane and major hurricane is given for El Niño, La Niña, and neutral years. The most dramatic probability differences between warm and cold ENSO events lie along the East Coast and, in particular, the state of North Carolina. The relationship between ENSO and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is also examined. In general, the negative phase of the AMO is characterized by a stronger ENSO modulation signal than a positive phase of the AMO.

scholarly journals A Chronology of El Niño Events from Primary Documentary Sources in Northern Peru*

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (9) ◽  
pp. 1948-1962 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Garcia-Herrera ◽  
D. Barriopedro ◽  
E. Hernández ◽  
H. F. Diaz ◽  
R. R. Garcia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Primary Sources ◽  
Proxy Data ◽  
Documentary Sources ◽  
Low Frequency Variability ◽  
Northern Peru

Abstract The authors present a chronology of El Niño (EN) events based on documentary records from northern Peru. The chronology, which covers the period 1550–1900, is constructed mainly from primary sources from the city of Trujillo (Peru), the Archivo General de Indias in Seville (Spain), and the Archivo General de la Nación in Lima (Peru), supplemented by a reassessment of documentary evidence included in previously published literature. The archive in Trujillo has never been systematically evaluated for information related to the occurrence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Abundant rainfall and river discharge correlate well with EN events in the area around Trujillo, which is very dry during most other years. Thus, rain and flooding descriptors, together with reports of failure of the local fishery, are the main indicators of EN occurrence that the authors have searched for in the documents. A total of 59 EN years are identified in this work. This chronology is compared with the two main previous documentary EN chronologies and with ENSO indicators derived from proxy data other than documentary sources. Overall, the seventeenth century appears to be the least active EN period, while the 1620s, 1720s, 1810s, and 1870s are the most active decades. The results herein reveal long-term fluctuations in warm ENSO activity that compare reasonably well with low-frequency variability deduced from other proxy data.

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