The Role of Moist Intrusions in Winter Arctic Warming and Sea Ice Decline

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (12) ◽  
pp. 4473-4485 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cian Woods ◽  
Rodrigo Caballero
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Strong Inversion ◽  
Ice Concentration

Abstract This paper examines the trajectories followed by intense intrusions of moist air into the Arctic polar region during autumn and winter and their impact on local temperature and sea ice concentration. It is found that the vertical structure of the warming associated with moist intrusions is bottom amplified, corresponding to a transition of local conditions from a “cold clear” state with a strong inversion to a “warm opaque” state with a weaker inversion. In the marginal sea ice zone of the Barents Sea, the passage of an intrusion also causes a retreat of the ice margin, which persists for many days after the intrusion has passed. The authors find that there is a positive trend in the number of intrusion events crossing 70°N during December and January that can explain roughly 45% of the surface air temperature and 30% of the sea ice concentration trends observed in the Barents Sea during the past two decades.

scholarly journals Sea-Ice Indicators of Polar Bear Habitat

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harry L. Stern ◽  
Kristin L. Laidre
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Polar Bear ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Arctic Basin ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
Ice Retreat ◽  
Sea Ice Retreat

Abstract. Abstract. Nineteen distinct subpopulations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are found throughout the Arctic, and in all regions they depend on sea ice as a platform for traveling, hunting, and breeding. Therefore polar bear phenology – the cycle of biological events – is tied to the timing of sea-ice retreat in spring and advance in fall. We analyzed the dates of sea-ice retreat and advance in all 19 polar bear subpopulation regions from 1979 to 2014, using daily sea-ice concentration data from satellite passive microwave instruments. We define the dates of sea-ice retreat and advance in a region as the dates when the area of sea ice drops below a certain threshold (retreat) on its way to the summer minimum, or rises above the threshold (advance) on its way to the winter maximum. The threshold is chosen to be halfway between the historical (1979–2014) mean September and mean March sea-ice areas. In all 19 regions there is a trend toward earlier sea-ice retreat and later sea-ice advance. Trends generally range from −3 to −9 days decade−1 in spring, and from +3 to +9 days decade−1 in fall, with larger trends in the Barents Sea and central Arctic Basin. The trends are not sensitive to the threshold. We also calculated the number of days per year that the sea-ice area exceeded the threshold (termed ice-covered days), and the average sea-ice concentration from 1 June through 31 October. The number of ice-covered days is declining in all regions at the rate of −7 to −19 days decade−1, with larger trends in the Barents Sea and central Arctic Basin. The June–October sea-ice concentration is declining in all regions at rates ranging from −1 to −9 percent decade−1. These sea-ice metrics (or indicators of change in marine mammal habitat) were designed to be useful for management agencies. We recommend that the National Climate Assessment include the timing of sea-ice retreat and advance in future reports.

scholarly journals Sea ice, temperature, and prey effects on annual variations in mean lengths of a key Arctic fish, Boreogadus saida, in the Barents Sea

2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (5) ◽  
pp. 1796-1805
Author(s):  
Nicolas Dupont ◽  
Joël M Durant ◽  
Øystein Langangen ◽  
Harald Gjøsæter ◽  
Leif Christian Stige
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Polar Cod ◽  
Boreogadus Saida ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
High Length

Abstract Oceanographic conditions in the Arctic are changing, with sea ice cover decreasing and sea temperatures increasing. Our understanding of the effects on marine populations in the area is, however, limited. Here, we focus on the Barents Sea stock of polar cod (Boreogadus saida). Polar cod is a key fish species for the transfer of energy from zooplankton to higher trophic levels in the Arctic food web. We analyse the relationships between 30-year data series on the length-at-age of polar cod cohorts (ages 0–4) and sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration, prey biomasses, predator indices, and length-at-age the previous year using multiple linear regression. Results for several ages showed that high length-at-age is significantly associated with low sea ice concentration and high length-at-age the previous year. Only length-at-age for age 1 shows a positive significant relationship with prey biomass. Our results suggest that retreating sea ice has positive effects on the growth of polar cod in the Barents Sea despite previous observations of a stagnating stock biomass and decreasing stock abundance. Our results contribute to identifying mechanisms by which climate variability affects the polar cod population, with implications for our understanding of how future climate change may affect Arctic ecosystems.

Gridded Arctic sea ice concentration reconstruction for the first half of the 20th century based on different proxy data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Semenov ◽  
Tatiana Matveeva
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
The North ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Concentration

<p>Global warming in the recent decades has been accompanied by a rapid recline of the Arctic sea ice area most pronounced in summer (10% per decade). To understand the relative contribution of external forcing and natural variability to the modern and future sea ice area changes, it is necessary to evaluate a range of long-term variations of the Arctic sea ice area in the period before a significant increase in anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Available observational data on the spatiotemporal dynamics of Arctic sea ice until 1950s are characterized by significant gaps and uncertainties. In the recent years, there have appeared several reconstructions of the early 20<sup>th</sup> century Arctic sea ice area that filled the gaps by analogue methods or utilized combined empirical data and climate model’s output. All of them resulted in a stronger that earlier believed negative sea ice area anomaly in the 1940s concurrent with the early 20<sup>th</sup> century warming (ETCW) peak. In this study, we reconstruct the monthly average gridded sea ice concentration (SIC) in the first half of the 20th century using the relationship between the spatiotemporal features of SIC variability, surface air temperature over the Northern Hemisphere extratropical continents, sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and sea level pressure. In agreement with a few previous results, our reconstructed data also show a significant negative anomaly of the Arctic sea ice area in the middle of the 20th century, however with some 15% to 30% stronger amplitude, about 1.5 million km<sup>2</sup> in September and 0.7 million km<sup>2</sup> in March. The reconstruction demonstrates a good agreement with regional Arctic sea ice area data when available and suggests that ETWC in the Arctic has been accompanied by a concurrent sea ice area decline of a magnitude that have been exceeded only in the beginning of the 21<sup>st</sup> century.</p>

scholarly journals Model-data comparison and data assimilation of mid-Holocene Arctic sea-ice concentration

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 6515-6549 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Klein ◽  
H. Goosse ◽  
A. Mairesse ◽  
A. de Vernal
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Model Data ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Concentration

Abstract. The consistency between a new quantitative reconstruction of Arctic sea-ice concentration based on dinocyst assemblages and the results of climate models has been investigated for the mid-Holocene. The comparison shows that the simulated sea-ice changes are weaker and spatially more homogeneous than the recorded ones. Furthermore, although the model-data agreement is relatively good in some regions such as the Labrador Sea, the skill of the models at local scale is low. The response of the models follows mainly the increase in summer insolation at large scale. This is modulated by changes in atmospheric circulation leading to differences between regions in the models that are albeit smaller than in the reconstruction. Performing simulations with data assimilation using the model LOVECLIM amplifies those regional differences, mainly through a reduction of the southward winds in the Barents Sea and an increase in the westerly winds in the Canadian Basin of the Arctic. This leads to an increase in the ice concentration in the Barents and Chukchi Seas and a better agreement with the reconstructions. This underlines the potential role of atmospheric circulation to explain the reconstructed changes during the Holocene.

Climatic trends of sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration in the Barents Sea

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bayoumy Mohamed ◽  
Frank Nilsen ◽  
Ragnheid Skogseth
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Ice Concentration

<p>Sea ice loss in the Arctic region is an important indicator for climate change. Especially in the Barents Sea, which is expected to be free of ice by the mid of this century (Onarheim et al., 2018). Here, we analyze 38 years (1982-2019) of daily gridded sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SIC) from the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA) project. These data sets have been used to investigate the seasonal cycle and linear trends of SST and SIC, and their spatial distribution in the Barents Sea. From the SST seasonal cycle analysis, we have found that most of the years that have temperatures above the climatic mean (1982-2019) were recorded after 2000. This confirms the warm transition that has taken place in the Barents Sea over the last two decades. The year 2016 was the warmest year in both winter and summer during the study period.   </p><p>Results from the linear trend analysis reveal an overall statistically significant warming trend for the whole Barents Sea of about 0.33±0.03 °C/decade, associated with a sea ice reduction rate of about -4.9±0.6 %/decade. However, the SST trend show a high spatial variability over the Barents Sea. The highest SST trend was found over the eastern part of the Barents Sea and south of Svalbard (Storfjordrenna Trough), while the Northern Barents Sea shows less distinct and non-significant trends. The largest negative trend of sea ice was observed between Novaya Zemlya and Franz Josef Land. Over the last two decades (2000-2019), the data show an amplified warming trend in the Barents Sea where the SST warming trend has increased dramatically (0.46±0.09 °C/decade) and the SIC is here decreasing with rate of about -6.4±1.5 %/decade.  Considering the current development of SST, if this trend persists, the Barents Sea annual mean SST will rise by around 1.4 °C by the end of 2050, which will have a drastic impact on the loss of sea ice in the Barents Sea.   </p><p> </p><p>Keywords: Sea surface temperature; Sea ice concentration; Trend analysis; Barents Sea</p>

scholarly journals Seasonal and Regional Manifestation of Arctic Sea Ice Loss

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (12) ◽  
pp. 4917-4932 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingrid H. Onarheim ◽  
Tor Eldevik ◽  
Lars H. Smedsrud ◽  
Julienne C. Stroeve
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
East Siberian Sea ◽  
Shelf Seas ◽  
Perennial Ice

The Arctic Ocean is currently on a fast track toward seasonally ice-free conditions. Although most attention has been on the accelerating summer sea ice decline, large changes are also occurring in winter. This study assesses past, present, and possible future change in regional Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent throughout the year by examining sea ice concentration based on observations back to 1950, including the satellite record since 1979. At present, summer sea ice variability and change dominate in the perennial ice-covered Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian, Laptev, and Kara Seas, with the East Siberian Sea explaining the largest fraction of September ice loss (22%). Winter variability and change occur in the seasonally ice-covered seas farther south: the Barents Sea, Sea of Okhotsk, Greenland Sea, and Baffin Bay, with the Barents Sea carrying the largest fraction of loss in March (27%). The distinct regions of summer and winter sea ice variability and loss have generally been consistent since 1950, but appear at present to be in transformation as a result of the rapid ice loss in all seasons. As regions become seasonally ice free, future ice loss will be dominated by winter. The Kara Sea appears as the first currently perennial ice-covered sea to become ice free in September. Remaining on currently observed trends, the Arctic shelf seas are estimated to become seasonally ice free in the 2020s, and the seasonally ice-covered seas farther south to become ice free year-round from the 2050s.

Drivers of interannual sea ice variability on the Arctic continental margin north of Svalbard

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Øyvind Lundesgaard ◽  
Arild Sundfjord ◽  
Angelika H. H. Renner
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Continental Margin ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Atlantic Water ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Ocean Temperature ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Ice Concentration

<p>Sea ice concentration along the Arctic continental margin north of Svalbard is in decline, but superimposed on this trend is considerable interannual variability. Many factors impact sea ice in this region, including atmospheric cooling and heating, winds, sea ice advection, and oceanic heat transport associated with the inflow of Atlantic Water, and regional sea ice cover remains difficult to predict. We present observations of upper ocean temperature between 2012 and 2017 from an ocean mooring located on the continental shelf break north of the Barents Sea, together with concurrent time series of atmospheric variables and sea ice concentration, drift, and thickness, derived from satellite and reanalysis data. While the inflow of Atlantic Water undoubtedly plays a key role in maintaining the area north of Svalbard ice-free through much of the year, variations in upper ocean temperature do not explain major interannual sea ice anomalies during the study period. Instead, we find that the magnitude of sea ice advection from the north and east was a major driver of interannual sea ice variability during our study.</p>

scholarly journals Sea-ice indicators of polar bear habitat

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 2027-2041 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harry L. Stern ◽  
Kristin L. Laidre
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Polar Bear ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Arctic Basin ◽  
Concentration Data ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
Ice Retreat ◽  
Sea Ice Retreat

Abstract. Nineteen subpopulations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are found throughout the circumpolar Arctic, and in all regions they depend on sea ice as a platform for traveling, hunting, and breeding. Therefore polar bear phenology – the cycle of biological events – is linked to the timing of sea-ice retreat in spring and advance in fall. We analyzed the dates of sea-ice retreat and advance in all 19 polar bear subpopulation regions from 1979 to 2014, using daily sea-ice concentration data from satellite passive microwave instruments. We define the dates of sea-ice retreat and advance in a region as the dates when the area of sea ice drops below a certain threshold (retreat) on its way to the summer minimum or rises above the threshold (advance) on its way to the winter maximum. The threshold is chosen to be halfway between the historical (1979–2014) mean September and mean March sea-ice areas. In all 19 regions there is a trend toward earlier sea-ice retreat and later sea-ice advance. Trends generally range from −3 to −9 days decade−1 in spring and from +3 to +9 days decade−1 in fall, with larger trends in the Barents Sea and central Arctic Basin. The trends are not sensitive to the threshold. We also calculated the number of days per year that the sea-ice area exceeded the threshold (termed ice-covered days) and the average sea-ice concentration from 1 June through 31 October. The number of ice-covered days is declining in all regions at the rate of −7 to −19 days decade−1, with larger trends in the Barents Sea and central Arctic Basin. The June–October sea-ice concentration is declining in all regions at rates ranging from −1 to −9 percent decade−1. These sea-ice metrics (or indicators of habitat change) were designed to be useful for management agencies and for comparative purposes among subpopulations. We recommend that the National Climate Assessment include the timing of sea-ice retreat and advance in future reports.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document