scholarly journals The Role of Zonal Asymmetry in the Enhancement and Suppression of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Variability by the Madden–Julian Oscillation

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 2399-2415 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wanying Kang ◽  
Eli Tziperman
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Stationary Waves ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Zonal Asymmetry ◽  
Forced Waves ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation

Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events influence the Arctic Oscillation and midlatitude extreme weather. Previous work showed the Arctic stratosphere to be influenced by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and that the SSW frequency increases with an increase of the MJO amplitude, expected in a warmer climate. It is shown here that the zonal asymmetry in both the background state and forcing plays a dominant role, leading to either enhancement or suppression of SSW events by MJO-like forcing. When applying a circumglobal MJO-like forcing in a dry dynamic core model, the MJO-forced waves can change the general circulation in three ways that affect the total vertical Eliassen–Palm flux in the Arctic stratosphere. First, weakening the zonal asymmetry of the tropospheric midlatitude jet, and therefore preventing the MJO-forced waves from propagating past the jet. Second, weakening the jet amplitude, reducing the waves generated in the midlatitudes, especially stationary waves, and therefore the upward-propagating planetary waves. Third, reducing the Arctic lower-stratospheric refractory index, which prevents waves from upward propagation. These effects stabilize the Arctic vortex and lower the SSW frequency. The longitudinal range to which the MJO-like forcing is limited plays an important role as well, and the strongest SSW frequency increase is seen when the MJO is located where it is observed in current climate. The SSW suppression effects are active when the MJO-like forcing is placed at different longitudinal locations. This study suggests that future trends in both the MJO amplitude and its longitudinal extent are important for predicting the Arctic stratosphere response.

scholarly journals Hindcasting the January 2009 Arctic Sudden Stratospheric Warming and Its Influence on the Arctic Oscillation with Unified Parameterization of Orographic Drag in NOGAPS. Part I: Extended-Range Stand-Alone Forecast

2010 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 1628-1644 ◽  
Author(s):  
Young-Joon Kim ◽  
Maria Flatau
Keyword(s):  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Extended Range ◽  
Tropospheric Circulation ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Orographic Drag

Abstract A very strong Arctic major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event occurred in late January 2009. The stratospheric temperature climbed abruptly and the zonal winds reversed direction, completely splitting the polar stratospheric vortex. A hindcast of this event is attempted by using the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), which includes the full stratosphere with its top at around 65 km. As Part I of this study, extended-range (3 week) forecast experiments are performed using NOGAPS without the aid of data assimilation. A unified parameterization of orographic drag is designed by combining two parameterization schemes; one by Webster et al., and the other by Kim and Arakawa and Kim and Doyle. With the new unified orographic drag scheme implemented, NOGAPS is able to reproduce the salient features of this Arctic SSW event owing to enhanced planetary wave activity induced by more comprehensive subgrid-scale orographic drag processes. The impact of the SSW on the tropospheric circulation is also investigated in view of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index, which calculated using 1000-hPa geopotential height. The NOGAPS with upgraded orographic drag physics better simulates the trend of the AO index as verified by the Met Office analysis, demonstrating its improved stratosphere–troposphere coupling. It is argued that the new model is more suitable for forecasting SSW events in the future and can serve as a tool for studying various stratospheric phenomena.

scholarly journals More Frequent Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events due to Enhanced MJO Forcing Expected in a Warmer Climate

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (21) ◽  
pp. 8727-8743 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wanying Kang ◽  
Eli Tziperman
Keyword(s):  
Time Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Propagation Path ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Propagation Time ◽  
Stationary Waves ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Transient Waves ◽  
Additional Time

Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events influence the Arctic Oscillation and midlatitude extreme weather. Observations show SSW events to be correlated with certain phases of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), but the effect of the MJO on SSW frequency is unknown, and the teleconnection mechanism, its planetary wave propagation path, and time scale are still not completely understood. The Arctic stratosphere response to increased MJO forcing expected in a warmer climate using two models is studied: the comprehensive Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model and an idealized dry dynamical core with and without MJO-like forcing. It is shown that the frequency of SSW events increases significantly in response to stronger MJO forcing, also affecting the averaged polar cap temperature. Two teleconnection mechanisms are identified: a direct propagation of MJO-forced transient waves to the Arctic stratosphere and a nonlinear enhancement of stationary waves by the MJO-forced transient waves. The MJO-forced waves propagate poleward in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere and then upward. The cleaner results of the idealized model allow identifying the propagating signal and suggest a horizontal propagation time scale of 10–20 days, followed by additional time for upward propagation within the Arctic stratosphere, although there are significant uncertainties involved. Given that the MJO is predicted to be stronger in a warmer climate, these results suggest that SSW events may become more frequent, with possible implications on tropospheric high-latitude weather. However, the effect of an actual warming scenario on SSW frequency involves additional effects besides a strengthening of the MJO, requiring further investigation.

scholarly journals Hindcasting the January 2009 Arctic Sudden Stratospheric Warming with Unified Parameterization of Orographic Drag in NOGAPS. Part II: Short-Range Data-Assimilated Forecast and the Impacts of Calibrated Radiance Bias Correction

2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 993-1007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Young-Joon Kim ◽  
William Campbell ◽  
Benjamin Ruston
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Variational Data Assimilation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Naval Research ◽  
Range Data ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Orographic Drag

Abstract This study is Part II of the effort to improve the forecasting of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events by using a version of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) that covers the full stratosphere. In Part I, extended-range (3 week) hindcast experiments (without data assimilation) for the January 2009 Arctic major SSW were performed using NOGAPS with a unified orographic drag parameterization that consists of the schemes employed by Webster et al., as well as Kim and Arakawa and Kim and Doyle. Part I demonstrated that the model with upgraded middle-atmospheric orographic drag physics better forecasts the magnitude and evolution of the SSW and better simulates the trend of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index. In this study (Part II), a series of 5-day hindcast experiments is performed with cycling data assimilation using the Naval Research Laboratory Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System-Accelerated Representer (NAVDAS-AR), a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) system. Further efforts are made to improve the hindcasting of SSW by improving the satellite radiance bias correction process that strongly affects the data assimilation. The innovation (observation minus background) limit is optimally determined to reduce the rejection of useful radiance data. It is found that when the innovation limit is properly set, both the analysis and forecast of the SSW event can be improved, and that the orographic drag helps improve the SSW forecast.

scholarly journals Winter 2018 major sudden stratospheric warming impact on midlatitude mesosphere from microwave radiometer measurements

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuke Wang ◽  
Valery Shulga ◽  
Gennadi Milinevsky ◽  
Aleksey Patoka ◽  
Oleksandr Evtushevsky ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Geopotential Height ◽  
Microwave Radiometer ◽  
Recovery Phase ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Easterly Wind ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Midlatitude Mesosphere

Abstract. The impact of a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the Arctic in February 2018 on the mid-latitude mesosphere was investigated by performing microwave radiometer measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) and zonal wind above Kharkiv, Ukraine (50.0° N, 36.3° E). The mesospheric peculiarities of this SSW event were observed using recently designed and installed microwave radiometer in East Europe for the first time. The data from the ERA-Interim and NCEP–NCAR reanalyses, as well as the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder measurements, have been also used. Microwave observations of the daily CO profiles in January–March 2018 allowed retrieving mesospheric zonal wind at 70–85 km (below the winter mesopause) over the Kharkiv site. The reverse of the mesospheric westerly from about 10 m s−1 to the easterly wind of about −10 m s−1 around 10 February has been registered. Local microwave observations in the NH midlatitudes combined with reanalysis data show wide ranges of daily variability in CO, zonal wind, temperature and geopotential height in the mesosphere and stratosphere during the SSW 2018. Oscillations in the vertical CO profile, zonal wind, and geopotential height during the SSW, stratopause disappearance after the SSW onset and strong CO and westerly wind peaks at the start of the SSW recovery phase have been observed. The observed CO variability can be explained by vertical and horizontal air mass redistribution due to planetary wave activity with the replacement of the CO-rich air by CO-poor air and vice versa, in agreement with other studies. The results of microwave measurements of CO and zonal wind in the midlatitude mesosphere at 70–85 km altitudes, which still is not adequately covered by ground-based observations, are useful for improving our understanding of the SSW impacts in this region.

scholarly journals On the role of Eurasian autumn snow cover in dynamical seasonal predictions 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Ruggieri ◽  
Marianna Benassi ◽  
Stefano Materia ◽  
Daniele Peano ◽  
Constantin Ardilouze ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Eurasian Snow

<p>Seasonal climate predictions leverage on many predictable or persistent components of the Earth system that can modify the state of the atmosphere and of relant weather related variable such as temprature and precipitation. With a dominant role of the ocean, the land surface provides predictability through various mechanisms, including snow cover, with particular reference to Autumn snow cover over the Eurasian continent. The snow cover alters the energy exchange between land surface and atmosphere and induces a diabatic cooling that in turn can affect the atmosphere both locally and remotely. Lagged relationships between snow cover in Eurasia and atmospheric modes of variability in the Northern Hemisphere have been investigated and documented but are deemed to be non-stationary and climate models typically do not reproduce observed relationships with consensus. The role of Autumn Eurasian snow in recent dynamical seasonal forecasts is therefore unclear. In this study we assess the role of Eurasian snow cover in a set of 5 operational seasonal forecast system characterized by a large ensemble size and a high atmospheric and oceanic resolution. Results are compemented with a set of targeted idealised simulations with atmospheric general circulation models forced by different snow cover conditions. Forecast systems reproduce realistically regional changes of the surface energy balance associated with snow cover variability. Retrospective forecasts and idealised sensitivity experiments converge in identifying a coherent change of the circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. This is compatible with a lagged but fast feedback from the snow to the Arctic Oscillation trough a tropospheric pathway.</p>

scholarly journals Analyzing ozone variations and uncertainties at high latitudes during Sudden Stratospheric Warming events using MERRA-2

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shima Bahramvash Shams ◽  
Von P. Walden ◽  
James W. Hannigan ◽  
William J. Randel ◽  
Irina V. Petropavlovskikh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Northern Latitudes ◽  
Stratospheric Dynamics ◽  
Zonal Average

Abstract. Stratospheric circulation is a critical part of the Arctic ozone cycle. Sudden stratospheric warming events (SSWs) manifest the strongest alteration of stratospheric dynamics. Changes in planetary wave propagation vigorously influence zonal mean zonal wind, temperature, and tracer concentrations in the stratosphere over the high latitudes. In this study, we examine six major SSWs from 2004 to 2020 using the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Using the unique density of observations around the Greenland sector at high latitudes, we perform comprehensive comparisons of high latitude observations with the MERRA-2 ozone dataset during the six major SSWs. Our results show that MERRA-2 captures the high variability of mid stratospheric ozone fluctuations during SSWs over high latitudes. However, larger uncertainties are observed in the lower stratosphere and troposphere. The zonally averaged stratospheric ozone shows a dramatic increase of 9–29 % in total column ozone (TCO) near the time of each SSW, which lasts up to two months. The SSWs exhibit a more significant impact on ozone over high northern latitudes when the polar vortex is mostly elongated as seen in 2009 and 2018 compared to the events in which the polar vortex is displaced towards Europe. The regional impact of SSWs over Greenland has a similar structure as the zonal average, however, exhibits more intense ozone anomalies which is reflected by 15–37 % increase in TCO. The influence of SSW on mid stratospheric ozone levels persists longer than their impact on temperature. This paper is focused on the increased (suppressed) wave activity before (after) the SSWs and their impact on ozone variability at high latitudes. This includes an investigation of the different terms of tracer continuity using MERRA-2 parameters, which emphasizes the key role of vertical advection on mid-stratospheric ozone during the SSWs.

scholarly journals Winter 2018 major sudden stratospheric warming impact on midlatitude mesosphere from microwave radiometer measurements

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (15) ◽  
pp. 10303-10317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuke Wang ◽  
Valerii Shulga ◽  
Gennadi Milinevsky ◽  
Aleksey Patoka ◽  
Oleksandr Evtushevsky ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Microwave Radiometer ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Easterly Wind ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Midlatitude Mesosphere

Abstract. The impact of a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the Arctic in February 2018 on the midlatitude mesosphere is investigated by performing the microwave radiometer measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) and zonal wind above Kharkiv, Ukraine (50.0∘ N, 36.3∘ E). The mesospheric peculiarities of this SSW event were observed using a recently designed and installed microwave radiometer in eastern Europe for the first time. Data from the ERA-Interim and MERRA-2 reanalyses, as well as the Aura microwave limb sounder measurements, are also used. Microwave observations of the daily CO profiles in January–March 2018 allowed for the retrieval of mesospheric zonal wind at 70–85 km (below the winter mesopause) over the Kharkiv site. Reversal of the mesospheric westerly from about 10 m s−1 to an easterly wind of about −10 m s−1 around 10 February was observed. The local microwave observations at our Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitude site combined with reanalysis data show wide-ranging daily variability in CO, zonal wind, and temperature in the mesosphere and stratosphere during the SSW of 2018. The observed local CO variability can be explained mainly by horizontal air mass redistribution due to planetary wave activity. Replacement of the CO-rich polar vortex air by CO-poor air of the surrounding area led to a significant mesospheric CO decrease over the station during the SSW and fragmentation of the vortex over the station at the SSW start caused enhanced stratospheric CO at about 30 km. The results of microwave measurements of CO and zonal wind in the midlatitude mesosphere at 70–85 km altitudes, which still are not adequately covered by ground-based observations, are useful for improving our understanding of the SSW impacts in this region.

scholarly journals Impacts of sudden stratospheric warming on general circulation of the thermosphere

2015 ◽  
Vol 120 (12) ◽  
pp. 10,897-10,912 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yasunobu Miyoshi ◽  
Hitoshi Fujiwara ◽  
Hidekatsu Jin ◽  
Hiroyuki Shinagawa
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming

scholarly journals Seasonal Forecasting with a Simple General Circulation Model: Predictive Skill in the AO and PNA

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 597-609 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacques Derome ◽  
Hai Lin ◽  
Gilbert Brunet
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Small Perturbations ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Environmental Prediction

Abstract A primitive equation dry atmospheric model is used to perform ensemble seasonal predictions. The predictions are done for 51 winter seasons [December–January–February (DJF)] from 1948 to 1998. Ensembles of 24 forecasts are produced, with initial conditions of 1 December plus small perturbations. The model uses a forcing field that is calculated empirically from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalyses. The forcing used to forecast a given winter is the sum of its winter climatological forcing plus an anomaly. The anomalous forcing is obtained as that of the month prior to the start of the forecast (November), which is also calculated from NCEP data. The predictions are thus made without using any information about the season to be predicted. The ensemble-mean predictions for the 51 winters are verified against the NCEP–NCAR reanalyses. Comparisons are made with the results obtained with a full GCM. It is found that the skill of the simple GCM is comparable in many ways to that of the full GCM. The skill in predicting the amplitude of the main patterns of Northern Hemisphere mean-seasonal variability, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern is also discussed. The simple GCM has skill not only in predicting the PNA pattern during winters with strong ENSO forcing, but it also has skill in predicting the AO in winters without appreciable ENSO forcing.

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