scholarly journals Metric-Dependent Tendency of Tropical Belt Width Changes during the Last Glacial Maximum

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (20) ◽  
pp. 8527-8540 ◽  
Author(s):  
Na Wang ◽  
Dabang Jiang ◽  
Xianmei Lang

Motivated by studies of tropical expansion under modern global warming, the behavior of the tropical belt during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) relative to the preindustrial period has been investigated in this study, using simulations from phase 3 of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) under the framework of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The tropical belt width changes determined by multiple metrics present two opposite tendencies. One refers to the poleward migration of the tropical edge as measured by the steep tropopause gradient and the subtropical jet, and the other suggests that the LGM tropics become narrower as measured by the Hadley cell extent, the eddy-driven jet, and the latitude where precipitation minus evaporation equals zero. The magnitude of such changes widely differs across models and metrics. In absolute terms, the multimodel mean total width changes range from 0.6° to 1.7° among metrics, with contributions predominantly from the Northern Hemisphere. Furthermore, the two metrics that indicate tropical widening are located in the upper troposphere. Such widening is closely related to the vertical and meridional temperature gradient changes in the subtropical regions. The other metrics are located in the middle and lower troposphere, and their variations are directly or indirectly related to changes in the low-level baroclinicity. The diverse responses of metrics to the LGM boundary conditions suggest that the tropical belt width changes and their climatic impacts are distinguished by the different measurements. The selection of metrics should correspond to the specific tropical properties of concern.

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (13) ◽  
pp. 5713-5725
Author(s):  
Seo-Yeon Kim ◽  
Seok-Woo Son

AbstractA poleward displacement of the Hadley cell (HC) edge and the eddy-driven jet latitude has been observed in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) during the last few decades. This change is further projected to continue in the future, indicating coherent tropical and extratropical zonal-mean circulation changes from the present climate to a warm climate. Here we show that such a systematic change in the zonal-mean circulation change does not hold in a cold climate. By examining the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), preindustrial (PI), and extended concentration pathway 4.5 (ECP4.5) scenarios archived for phase 3 of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), it is shown that while the annual-mean SH HC edge systematically shifts poleward from the LGM scenario to the PI scenario and then to the ECP4.5 scenario the annual-mean SH eddy-driven jet latitude does not. All models show a poleward jet shift from the PI scenario to the ECP4.5 scenario, but over one-half of the models exhibit no trend or even an equatorward jet shift from the LGM scenario to the PI scenario. This decoupling between the HC edge and jet latitude changes is most pronounced in SH winter when the Antarctic surface cooling in the LGM scenario is comparable to or larger than the tropical upper-tropospheric cooling. This result indicates that polar amplification could play a crucial role in driving the decoupling of the tropical and midlatitude zonal-mean circulation in the SH in a cold climate.


2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-114 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Arpe ◽  
S. A. G. Leroy ◽  
U. Mikolajewicz

Abstract. Model simulations of the last glacial maximum (21 ± 2 ka) with the ECHAM3 T42 atmosphere-only, ECHAM5-MPIOM T31 atmosphere-ocean coupled and ECHAM5 T106 atmosphere-only models are compared. The topography, land-sea mask and glacier distribution for the ECHAM5 simulations were taken from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase II (PMIP2) data set while for ECHAM3 they were taken from PMIP1. The ECHAM5-MPIOM T31 model produced its own sea surface temperatures (SST) while the ECHAM5 T106 simulations were forced at the boundaries by this coupled model SSTs corrected from their present-day biases and the ECHAM3 T42 model was forced with prescribed SSTs provided by Climate/Long-Range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction project (CLIMAP). The SSTs in the ECHAM5-MPIOM simulation for the last glacial maximum (LGM) were much warmer in the northern Atlantic than those suggested by CLIMAP or Overview of Glacial Atlantic Ocean Mapping (GLAMAP) while the SSTs were cooler everywhere else. This had a clear effect on the temperatures over Europe, warmer for winters in western Europe and cooler for eastern Europe than the simulation with CLIMAP SSTs. Considerable differences in the general circulation patterns were found in the different simulations. A ridge over western Europe for the present climate during winter in the 500 hPa height field remains in both ECHAM5 simulations for the LGM, more so in the T106 version, while the ECHAM3 CLIMAP-SST simulation provided a trough which is consistent with cooler temperatures over western Europe. The zonal wind between 30° W and 10° E shows a southward shift of the polar and subtropical jets in the simulations for the LGM, least obvious in the ECHAM5 T31 one, and an extremely strong polar jet for the ECHAM3 CLIMAP-SST run. The latter can probably be assigned to the much stronger north-south gradient in the CLIMAP SSTs. The southward shift of the polar jet during the LGM is supported by palaeo-data. Cyclone tracks in winter represented by high precipitation are characterised over Europe for the present by a main branch from the British Isles to Norway and a secondary branch towards the Mediterranean Sea, observed and simulated. For the LGM the different models show very different solutions: the ECHAM3 CLIMAP-SST simulation shows just one track going eastward from the British Isles into central Europe, while the ECHAM5 T106 simulation still has two branches but during the LGM the main one goes to the Mediterranean Sea, with enhanced precipitation in the Levant. This agrees with an observed high stand of the Dead Sea during the LGM. For summer the ECHAM5 T106 simulation provides much more precipitation for the present over Europe than the other simulations, thus agreeing with estimates by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Also during the LGM this model makes Europe less arid than the other simulations. In many respects the ECHAM5 T106 simulation for the present is more realistic than the ECHAM5 T31 coupled simulation and the older ECHAM3 T42 simulation, when comparing them with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis or the GPCP precipitation data. For validating the model data for the LGM, pollen, wood and charcoal analyses were compared with possible summer-green tree growth from model estimates using summer precipitation, minimum winter temperatures and growing degree days (above 5 °C). The ECHAM5 T106 simulation suggests for more sites with findings of palaeo-data, likely tree growth during the LGM than the other simulations, especially over western Europe. The clear message especially from the ECHAM5 T106 simulation is that warm-loving summer-green trees could have survived mainly in Spain but also in Greece in agreement with findings of pollen or charcoal. Southern Italy is also suggested but this could not be validated because of absence of palaeo-data. Previous climate simulations of the LGM have suggested less cold and more humid climate than that reconstructed from pollen findings. Our model results do agree more or less with those of other models but we do not find a contradiction with palaeo-data because we use the pollen data directly without an intermediate reconstruction of temperatures and precipitation from the pollen spectra.


1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 145-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilles Ramstein ◽  
Adeline Fabre ◽  
Sophie Pinot ◽  
Catherine Ritz ◽  
Sylvie Joussaume

In the framework of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) have- been performed. More than 10 different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) have been used with the same boundary conditions: sea-surface temperatures prescribed by CLIMAP (1981), ice-sheet reconstruction provided by Peltier (1994), change in insolation, and reduced CO2 content. One of the major questions is to investigate whether the simulations of the LGM are in equilibrium with the prescribed ice-sheet reconstruction. To answer this question, we have used two different approaches. First, we analyze the results of a sel of LGM simulations performed with different versions of the Laboratoire de Meteorolo-gie Dynamique (LMD) AGCM and study the hydrologic and snow- budgets over the Laurcntide and Fennoscandian ice sheets. Second, we use the AGCM outputs to force an ice-sheet model in order to investigate its ability to maintain the ice sheets as reconstructed by CLIMAP (1981) or Peltier (1994).


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathaelle Bouttes ◽  
Ruza Ivanovic ◽  
Ayako Abe-Ouchi ◽  
Hidetaka Kobayashi ◽  
Laurie Menviel ◽  
...  

<p>More and more climate models now include the carbon cycle, but multi-models studies of climate-carbon simulations within the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) are limited to present and future time periods. In addition, the carbon cycle is not considered in the simulations of past periods analysed within the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Yet, climate-carbon interactions are crucial to anticipate future atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations and their impact on climate. Such interactions can change depending on the background climate, it is thus necessary to compare model results among themselves and to data for past periods with different climates such as the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).</p><p>The Last Glacial Maximum, around 21,000 years ago, was about 4°C colder than the pre-industrial, and associated with large ice sheets on the American and Eurasian continents. It is one of the best documented periods thanks to numerous paleoclimate archives such as marine sediment cores and ice cores. Despite this period having been studied for years, no consensus on the causes of the lower atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration at the time (around 180 ppm) has been reached and models still struggle to simulate these low CO<sub>2</sub> values. The ocean, which contains around 40 times more carbon than the atmosphere, likely plays a key role, but models tend to simulate ocean circulation changes in disagreement with proxy data, such as carbon isotopes.</p><p>This new project aims at comparing, for the first time, the carbon cycle representation at the Last Glacial Maximum from general circulation models and intermediate complexity models. We will explain the protocol and present first results in terms of carbon storage in the main reservoirs (atmosphere, land and ocean) and their link to key climate variables such as temperature, sea ice and ocean circulation. The use of coupled climate-carbon models will not only allow to compare changes in the carbon cycle in models and analyse their causes, but it will also enable us to better compare to indirect data related to the carbon cycle such as carbon isotopes.</p>


1999 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. 857-874 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Pinot ◽  
G. Ramstein ◽  
S. P. Harrison ◽  
I. C. Prentice ◽  
J. Guiot ◽  
...  

1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 145-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilles Ramstein ◽  
Adeline Fabre ◽  
Sophie Pinot ◽  
Catherine Ritz ◽  
Sylvie Joussaume

In the framework of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) have- been performed. More than 10 different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) have been used with the same boundary conditions: sea-surface temperatures prescribed by CLIMAP (1981), ice-sheet reconstruction provided by Peltier (1994), change in insolation, and reduced CO2 content. One of the major questions is to investigate whether the simulations of the LGM are in equilibrium with the prescribed ice-sheet reconstruction. To answer this question, we have used two different approaches. First, we analyze the results of a sel of LGM simulations performed with different versions of the Laboratoire de Meteorolo-gie Dynamique (LMD) AGCM and study the hydrologic and snow- budgets over the Laurcntide and Fennoscandian ice sheets. Second, we use the AGCM outputs to force an ice-sheet model in order to investigate its ability to maintain the ice sheets as reconstructed by CLIMAP (1981) or Peltier (1994).


2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 1033-1057 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masa Kageyama ◽  
Pascale Braconnot ◽  
Sandy P. Harrison ◽  
Alan M. Haywood ◽  
Johann H. Jungclaus ◽  
...  

Abstract. This paper is the first of a series of four GMD papers on the PMIP4-CMIP6 experiments. Part 2 (Otto-Bliesner et al., 2017) gives details about the two PMIP4-CMIP6 interglacial experiments, Part 3 (Jungclaus et al., 2017) about the last millennium experiment, and Part 4 (Kageyama et al., 2017) about the Last Glacial Maximum experiment. The mid-Pliocene Warm Period experiment is part of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) – Phase 2, detailed in Haywood et al. (2016).The goal of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) is to understand the response of the climate system to different climate forcings for documented climatic states very different from the present and historical climates. Through comparison with observations of the environmental impact of these climate changes, or with climate reconstructions based on physical, chemical, or biological records, PMIP also addresses the issue of how well state-of-the-art numerical models simulate climate change. Climate models are usually developed using the present and historical climates as references, but climate projections show that future climates will lie well outside these conditions. Palaeoclimates very different from these reference states therefore provide stringent tests for state-of-the-art models and a way to assess whether their sensitivity to forcings is compatible with palaeoclimatic evidence. Simulations of five different periods have been designed to address the objectives of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6): the millennium prior to the industrial epoch (CMIP6 name: past1000); the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago (midHolocene); the Last Glacial Maximum, 21 000 years ago (lgm); the Last Interglacial, 127 000 years ago (lig127k); and the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, 3.2 million years ago (midPliocene-eoi400). These climatic periods are well documented by palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental records, with climate and environmental changes relevant for the study and projection of future climate changes. This paper describes the motivation for the choice of these periods and the design of the numerical experiments and database requests, with a focus on their novel features compared to the experiments performed in previous phases of PMIP and CMIP. It also outlines the analysis plan that takes advantage of the comparisons of the results across periods and across CMIP6 in collaboration with other MIPs.


2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 261-277 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Braconnot ◽  
B. Otto-Bliesner ◽  
S. Harrison ◽  
S. Joussaume ◽  
J.-Y. Peterchmitt ◽  
...  

Abstract. A set of coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations using state of the art climate models is now available for the Last Glacial Maximum and the Mid-Holocene through the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2). This study presents the large-scale features of the simulated climates and compares the new model results to those of the atmospheric models from the first phase of the PMIP, for which sea surface temperature was prescribed or computed using simple slab ocean formulations. We consider the large-scale features of the climate change, pointing out some of the major differences between the different sets of experiments. We show in particular that systematic differences between PMIP1 and PMIP2 simulations are due to the interactive ocean, such as the amplification of the African monsoon at the Mid-Holocene or the change in precipitation in mid-latitudes at the LGM. Also the PMIP2 simulations are in general in better agreement with data than PMIP1 simulations.


2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (9) ◽  
pp. 1706-1715 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gareth P. Williams ◽  
Kirk Bryan

Abstract Factors controlling the position and strength of the surface winds during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are examined using a global, multilevel, moist, atmospheric model. The idealized aquaplanet model is bounded below by a prescribed axisymmetric temperature distribution that corresponds to an ocean-covered surface. Various forms of this distribution are used to examine the influence of changes in the surface cooling and baroclinicity rates. The model omits seasonal variations. Increasing the cooling lowers the tropopause and greatly reduces the moist convection in the Tropics, thereby causing a weakening and equatorward contraction of the Hadley cell. Such a cooling also weakens the surface westerlies and shifts the peak westerly stress equatorward. An extra surface baroclinicity in midlatitudes—implicitly associated with an increase in the polar sea ice—also shifts the peak westerly stress equatorward, but strengthens the surface westerlies. Thus, calculations with combined surface cooling and baroclinicity increases, representative of the Last Glacial Maximum, reveal an absence of change in the amplitude of the peak westerly stress but exhibit a substantial equatorward shift in its position, 7° for a 3-K cooling and 11° for a 6-K cooling. The easterlies, however, always increase in strength when the surface westerlies move equatorward. The application of these results to the LGM must take into account the model’s assumption of symmetry between the two hemispheres. Any changes in the climate’s hemispheric asymmetry could also cause comparable latitudinal shifts in the westerlies, probably of opposite sign in the two hemispheres. Published coupled-model simulations for the LGM give an equatorward shift for the peak westerlies in the Northern Hemisphere but give contradictory results for the Southern Hemisphere.


2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 537-584 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Arpe ◽  
S. A. G. Leroy ◽  
U. Mikolajewicz

Abstract. Model simulations of the last glacial maximum (21±2 ka) with the ECHAM3 T42, ECHAM5 T31 coupled and ECHAM5 T106 uncoupled models are compared. The ECHAM5 T106 simulations were forced at the boundaries by results from the coupled ECHAM5-MPIOM atmosphere ocean model while the ECHAM3 T42 model was forced with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) provided by Climate/Long-Range Investigation, Mapping Prediction project (CLIMAP). The topography, land-sea mask and glacier distribution for the ECHAM5 simulations were taken from the PMIP2 data set while for ECHAM3 they were taken from PMIP1. The ECHAM5 simulations were run with a variable SST in time simulated by the coupled model. These were also used for the T106 run but corrected for systematic errors. The SSTs in the ECHAM5-MPIOM simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) were much warmer in the northern Atlantic than those suggested by CLIMAP or GLAMAP while they were cooler everywhere else. This had a clear effect on the temperatures over Europe, warmer for winters in Western Europe and cooler for Eastern Europe than the simulation with CLIMAP SSTs. Considerable differences in the general circulation patterns were found in the different simulations. A ridge over Western Europe for the present climate during winter in the 500 hPa height field remains in the ECHAM5 simulations for the LGM, more so in the T106 version, while the ECHAM3 CLIMAP simulation provided a trough. The zonal wind between 30° W and 10° E shows a southward shift of the polar and subtropical jet in the T106 simulation for the LGM and an extremely strong polar jet for the ECHAM3 CLIMAP. The latter can probably be assigned to the much stronger north-south gradient in the CLIMAP SSTs. The southward shift of the polar jet during LGM is supported by observation evidence. Cyclone tracks in winter represented by high precipitation are characterised over Europe for the present by a main branch from Great Britain to Norway and a secondary branch towards the Mediterranean Sea. For the LGM the different models show very different solutions: the ECHAM3 CLIMAP simulations show just one track going eastward from Great Britain into central Europe, while the ECHAM5 T106 simulation still has two branches but the main one goes to the Mediterranean Sea, with enhanced precipitation in the Levant. This agrees with an observed high stand of the Dead Sea during the LGM. For summer the ECHAM5 T106 simulations provide much more precipitation for the present over Europe than the other simulations thus agreeing with estimates by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Also during the LGM this model makes Europe less arid than the other simulations. In many respects the ECHAM5 T106 simulations for the present were more realistic than the ECHAM5 T31 coupled simulation and the older ECHAM3 T42 simulations, when comparing them with the ECMWF reanalysis or the GPCP data. For validating the model data for the LGM, pollen and charcoal analyses were compared with possible summer-green tree growth from model estimates using summer precipitation, minimum winter temperatures and growing degree days (above 5 °C). The ECHAM5 T106 simulations suggest at more sites with findings from pollen or charcoal analyses likely tree growth during the LGM than the other simulations, especially over Western Europe. The clear message especially from the ECHAM5 T106 simulations is that warm-loving summer-green trees could have survived mainly in Spain but also in Greece in agreement with findings of pollen or charcoal.


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