scholarly journals Summertime Surface Wind Variability over Northeastern North America at Multidecadal to Centennial Time Scales via Statistical Downscaling

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (5) ◽  
pp. 1969-1990
Author(s):  
Etor E. Lucio-Eceiza ◽  
J. Fidel González-Rouco ◽  
Elena García-Bustamante ◽  
Jorge Navarro ◽  
Cristina Rojas-Labanda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Meridional Wind ◽  
Similar Amount ◽  
Coupled Modes ◽  
Northeastern North America ◽  
Wind Variability

AbstractThe variability of the surface zonal and meridional wind components over northeastern North America during June–October is analyzed through a statistical downscaling (SD) approach that relates the main wind and large-scale circulation modes. An observational surface wind dataset of 525 sites over 1953–2010 provides the local information. Twelve global reanalyses provide the large-scale information. The large-to-local variability of the wind field can be explained, to a large extent, in terms of four coupled modes of circulation explaining a similar amount of variance. The SD method is mostly sensitive to the number of retained modes and subregionally to the large-scale information variable, but not to the reanalysis source. The SD methodological uncertainty based on the use of multiple configurations is directly related to the variability of the wind, similar in relative terms for both components. With an adequate choice of parameters the SD estimates provide more realistic variances than the reanalysis wind, although their correlations with respect to observations are lower than the latter. Additionally, while these different SD estimations are very similar on the reanalysis used, the various reanalysis wind fields show noticeable differences, especially in their variances. The wind variability is reconstructed back to 1850, making use of century-long reanalyses and two additional SLP gridded datasets, which allows estimating the variability at decadal to multidecadal time scales. Recent negative (significant) trends in the zonal component do not stand out in the multidecadal context, but they are consistent with a global stilling process, and are partially attributable to changes in the large-scale dynamics.

Multidecadal to centennial surface wintertime wind variability over Northeastern North America via statistical downscaling

2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 41-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Etor E. Lucio-Eceiza ◽  
J. Fidel González-Rouco ◽  
Elena García-Bustamante ◽  
Jorge Navarro ◽  
Hugo Beltrami
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Northeastern North America ◽  
Wind Variability

scholarly journals Surface Wind Regionalization in Complex Terrain

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 308-325 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. A. Jiménez ◽  
E. García-Bustamante ◽  
J. F. González-Rouco ◽  
F. Valero ◽  
J. P. Montávez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Meridional Wind ◽  
Northern Spain ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Topographic Features ◽  
Wind Variability

Abstract Daily wind variability in the Comunidad Foral de Navarra in northern Spain was studied using wind observations at 35 locations to derive subregions with homogeneous temporal variability. Two different methodologies based on principal component analysis were used to regionalize: 1) cluster analysis and 2) the rotation of the selected principal components. Both methodologies produce similar results and lead to regions that are in general agreement with the topographic features of the terrain. The meridional wind variability is similar in all subregions, whereas zonal wind variability is responsible for differences between them. The spectral analysis of wind variability within each subregion reveals a dominant annual cycle and the varying presence of higher-frequency contributions in the subregions. The valley subregions tend to present more variability at high frequencies than do higher-altitude sites. Last, the influence of large-scale dynamics on regional wind variability is explored by studying connections between wind in each subregion and sea level pressure fields. The results of this work contribute to the characterization of wind variability in a complex terrain region and constitute a framework for the validation of mesoscale model wind simulations over the region.

scholarly journals Fifty-Seven-Year California Reanalysis Downscaling at 10 km (CaRD10). Part I: System Detail and Validation with Observations

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (22) ◽  
pp. 5553-5571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masao Kanamitsu ◽  
Hideki Kanamaru
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Analysis ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Lateral Boundary ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Precipitation Analysis

Abstract For the purpose of producing datasets for regional-scale climate change research and application, the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis for the period 1948–2005 was dynamically downscaled to hourly, 10-km resolution over California using the Regional Spectral Model. This is Part I of a two-part paper, describing the details of the downscaling system and comparing the downscaled analysis [California Reanalysis Downscaling at 10 km (CaRD10)] against observation and global analysis. An extensive validation of the downscaled analysis was performed using station observations, Higgins gridded precipitation analysis, and Precipitation-Elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) precipitation analysis. In general, the CaRD10 near-surface wind and temperature fit better to regional-scale station observations than the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis used to force the regional model, supporting the premise that the regional downscaling is a viable method to attain regional detail from large-scale analysis. This advantage of CaRD10 was found on all time scales, ranging from hourly to decadal scales (i.e., from diurnal variation to multidecadal trend). Dynamically downscaled analysis provides ways to study various regional climate phenomena of different time scales because all produced variables are dynamically, physically, and hydrologically consistent. However, the CaRD10 is not free from problems. It suffers from positive bias in precipitation for heavy precipitation events. The CaRD10 is inaccurate near the lateral boundary where regional detail is damped by the lateral boundary relaxation. It is important to understand these limitations before the downscaled analysis is used for research.

Changing Patterns in the Holocene Pollen Record of Northeastern North America: A Mapped Summary

1977 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 64-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Christopher Bernabo ◽  
Thompson Webb
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Deciduous Forest ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Early Holocene ◽  
Pollen Record ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Northeastern North America ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Changing Patterns

By mapping the data from 62 radiocarbon-dated pollen diagrams, this paper illustrates the Holocene history of four major vegetational regions in northeastern North America. Isopoll maps, difference maps, and isochrone maps are used in order to examine the changing patterns within the data set and to study broad-scale and long-term vegetational dynamics. Isopoll maps show the distributions of spruce (Picea), pine (Pinus), oak (Quercus), herb (nonarboreal pollen groups excluding Cyperaceae), and birch + maple + beech + hemlock (Betula, Acer, Fagus, Tsuga) pollen at specified times from 11,000 BP to present. Difference maps were constructed by subtracting successive isopoll maps and illustrate the changing patterns of pollen abundances from one time to the next. The isochrone maps portray the movement of ecotones and range limits by showing their positions at a sequence of times during the Holocene. After 11,000 BP, the broad region over which spruce pollen had dominated progressively shrank as the boreal forest zone was compressed between the retreating ice margin and the rapidly westward and northward expanding region where pine was the predominant pollen type. Simultaneously, the oak-pollen-dominated deciduous forest moved up from the south and the prairie expanded eastward. By 7000 BP, the prairie had attained its maximum eastward extent with the period of its most rapid expansion evident between 10,000 and 9000 BP. Many of the trends of the early Holocene were reversed after 7000 BP with the prairie retreating westward and the boreal and other zones edging southward. In the last 500 years, man's impact on the vegetation is clearly visible, especially in the greatly expanded region dominated by herb pollen. The large scale changes before 7000 BP probably reflect shifts in the macroclimatic patterns that were themselves being modified by the retreat and disintegration of the Laurentide ice sheet. Subsequent changes in the pollen and vegetation were less dramatic than those of the early Holocene.

scholarly journals Characterizing ERA-interim and ERA5 surface wind biases using ASCAT

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Belmonte Rivas ◽  
Ad Stoffelen
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Atmospheric Stability ◽  
Ocean Current ◽  
Wind Stress Curl ◽  
Wind Variability ◽  
Meridional Winds ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Transient Wind ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. This paper analyses the differences between ERA-Interim and ERA5 surface winds fields relative to ASCAT ocean vector wind observations, after adjustment for the effects of atmospheric stability and density, using stress equivalent winds (U10S), and air-sea relative motion using ocean current velocities. In terms of instantaneous RMS wind speed agreement, ERA5 winds show a 20 % improvement relative to ERA interim, and a performance similar to that of currently operational ECMWF forecasts. ERA5 also performs better than ERA-interim in terms of mean and transient wind errors, wind divergence and wind stress curl biases. Yet, both ERA products show systematic errors in the partition of the wind kinetic energy into zonal and meridional, mean and transient components. ERA winds are characterized by excessive mean zonal winds (westerlies) with defective mean poleward flows at mid-latitudes, and defective mean meridional winds (trades) in the tropics. ERA stress curl is too cyclonic at mid and high latitudes, with implications for Ekman upwelling estimates, and lack detail in the representation of SST gradient effects (along the equatorial cold tongues and WBC jets) and mesoscale convective airflows (along the ITCZ and the warm flanks for the WBC jets). It is conjectured that large-scale mean wind biases in ERA are related to their lack of high frequency (transient wind) variability, which should be promoting residual meridional circulations in the Ferrell and Hadley cells.

scholarly journals Statistical downscaling of the French Mediterranean climate: assessment for present and projection in an anthropogenic scenario

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 651-670 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Lavaysse ◽  
M. Vrac ◽  
P. Drobinski ◽  
M. Lengaigne ◽  
T. Vischel
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Recent Climate

Abstract. The Mediterranean basin is a particularly vulnerable region to climate change, featuring a sharply contrasted climate between the North and South and governed by a semi-enclosed sea with pronounced surrounding topography covering parts of the Europe, Africa and Asia regions. The physiographic specificities contribute to produce mesoscale atmospheric features that can evolve to high-impact weather systems such as heavy precipitation, wind storms, heat waves and droughts. The evolution of these meteorological extremes in the context of global warming is still an open question, partly because of the large uncertainty associated with existing estimates produced by global climate models (GCM) with coarse horizontal resolution (~200 km). Downscaling climatic information at a local scale is, thus, needed to improve the climate extreme prediction and to provide relevant information for vulnerability and adaptation studies. In this study, we investigate wind, temperature and precipitation distributions for past recent climate and future scenarios at eight meteorological stations in the French Mediterranean region using one statistical downscaling model, referred as the "Cumulative Distribution Function transform" (CDF-t) approach. A thorough analysis of the uncertainty associated with statistical downscaling and bi-linear interpolation of large-scale wind speed, temperature and rainfall from reanalyses (ERA-40) and three GCM historical simulations, has been conducted and quantified in terms of Kolmogorov-Smirnov scores. CDF-t produces a more accurate and reliable local wind speed, temperature and rainfall. Generally, wind speed, temperature and rainfall CDF obtained with CDF-t are significantly similar with the observed CDF, even though CDF-t performance may vary from one station to another due to the sensitivity of the driving large-scale fields or local impact. CDF-t has then been applied to climate simulations of the 21st century under B1 and A2 scenarios for the three GCMs. As expected, the most striking trend is obtained for temperature (median and extremes), whereas for wind speed and rainfall, the evolution of the distributions is weaker. Mean surface wind speed and wind extremes seem to decrease in most locations, whereas the mean rainfall value decreases while the extremes seem to slightly increase. This is consistent with previous studies, but if this trend is clear with wind speed and rainfall data interpolated from GCM simulations at station locations, conversely CDF-t produces a more uncertain trend.

scholarly journals Quality Control of Surface Wind Observations in Northeastern North America. Part I: Data Management Issues

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 163-182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Etor E. Lucio-Eceiza ◽  
J. Fidel González-Rouco ◽  
Jorge Navarro ◽  
Hugo Beltrami
Keyword(s):  
Quality Control ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
North America ◽  
Data Management ◽  
Wind Direction ◽  
Measurement Errors ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Error Type ◽  
Northeastern North America ◽  
Management Issues

AbstractA quality control (QC) process has been developed and implemented on an observational database of surface wind speed and direction in northeastern North America. The database combines data from 526 land stations and buoys spread across eastern Canada and five adjacent northeastern U.S. states. It combines the observations of three different institutions spanning from 1953 to 2010. The quality of these initial data varies among source institutions. The current QC process is divided into two parts. Part I, described herein, is focused on issues related to data management: issues stemming from data transcription and collection; differences in measurement units and recording times; detection of sequences of duplicated data; unification of calm and true north criteria for wind direction; and detection of physically unrealistic data measurements. As a result, around ~0.1% of wind speed and wind direction records have been identified as erroneous and deleted. The most widespread error type is related to duplications within the same station, but the error type that entails more erroneous data belongs to duplications among different sites. Additionally, the process of data compilation and standardization has had an impact on more than 90% of the records. A companion paper (Part II) deals with a group of errors that are conceptually different, and is focused on detecting measurement errors that relate to temporal consistency and biases in wind speed and direction.

Variability in the Southerly Flow into the Eastern Pacific ITCZ*

2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (12) ◽  
pp. 4400-4411 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon P. de Szoeke ◽  
Christopher S. Bretherton
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Low Pressure ◽  
Meridional Wind ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
East Pacific

Abstract During boreal summer and fall, there is a strong southerly boundary layer flow across the equator into the east Pacific intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The modulation of this flow on synoptic to seasonal time scales is studied using an index of meridional pressure difference between the equator and the ITCZ along 95°W. Two complementary datasets from the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) are used to study eastern Pacific variability. Daily measurements of sea level pressure (SLP) from Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TOA) array buoys from May to November 2001 provide temporal coverage, and eight flights by a C-130 aircraft during September to October 2001 document the associated modulation of lower tropospheric vertical structure. The principal mode of variability of the perturbation SLP along 95°W from 1°S to 12°N, derived by principal component analysis from either the eight flights (PC1C-130) or from daily TAO buoy observations (PC1), explains 77% of the meridional pressure gradient variability. The pressure anomalies at 1.6 km are similar to those at the surface. The time series of the first mode of the TAO observations shows that most of the variance is in the 2–7-day range. Low pressure at 12°N is associated with southerly and westerly surface wind anomalies, and enhanced precipitation in the ITCZ. The depth of ITCZ convection is more strongly correlated to meridional wind above the planetary boundary layer (PBL) than to meridional wind within the PBL. There is little correlation of PBL meridional flow across the equator with ITCZ convection. Regression of PC1C-130 against the 95°W cross sections observed by dropwinsondes released during the eight C-130 flights shows correlations of westerlies to positive PC1C-130 (low pressure at 12°N). Between the equator and 4°N, statistically significant northerlies just above the PBL at 1–2-km height and southerlies at 4 km are correlated with negative PC1C-130, having high SLP at 12°N, an anomalously weak meridional SLP gradient, and suppressed convection in the ITCZ. PC1 is bandpass filtered and correlated with reanalysis fields to identify the structures that modulate meridional pressure gradients along 95°W. Most of the variability at periods less than 15 days is related to easterly waves. Seasonal trends in PC1 during May–October 2001 reflect the seasonal evolution of the sea and land surface temperatures. After the seasonal trend is removed, a geostrophic westerly jet at 12°N—probably related to the Madden–Julian oscillation—dominates PC1 variability on time scales longer than 15 days.

Haudenosaunee Settlement Ecology before and after Contact in Northeastern North America

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric E. Jones
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Location Choices ◽  
Northeastern North America ◽  
Early Colonial ◽  
Settlement Location ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Patterns And Processes ◽  
Subsistence Activities ◽  
Existing Data

This chapter compares the settlement ecology—factors influencing settlement location choices, settlement size, and settlement relocation—of Haudenosaunee (Iroquois) communities in northeastern North America predating the arrival of Europeans, to early Colonial Period communities. It enhances understanding of Haudenosaunee reactions to the introduction of European societies, politics, economics, ecologies, and ideologies in the region. Results suggest that settlement location choices changed very little after Europeans arrived. Either the landscape changed little from the Haudenosaunee perspective, or Haudenosaunee communities were not significantly influenced by the changes that did occur, although particular landscape features related to agricultural subsistence activities did shift. The chapter investigates these large-scale trends and explores the ecology of Haudenosaunee settlement patterns and processes before and during early colonialism. Results are supplemented with existing data on community life to create a multiscalar view of Haudenosaunee settlement ecology as it relates to the advent of colonialism in northeastern North America.

Southerly Surges on Submonthly Time Scales over the Eastern Indian Ocean during the Southern Hemisphere Winter

2005 ◽  
Vol 133 (6) ◽  
pp. 1637-1654 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoshiki Fukutomi ◽  
Tetsuzo Yasunari
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Meridional Wind ◽  
Eastern Indian Ocean ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Dry Air ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract Meridional wind surges from the extratropics into the Tropics strongly regulate tropical convective activity. This paper confirms that extratropical forcing manifested as a meridional surge does modulate the tropical atmosphere over the eastern Indian Ocean, and it describes the tropical–extratropical connection in the region. Surges in the lower atmosphere on submonthly (6–25 days) time scales over the eastern Indian Ocean were examined in tandem with associated tropical convection and large-scale atmospheric fields during the Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter (June–August). Data used in this study are NCEP-2 reanalyses and daily NOAA/Climate Diagnostics Center (CDC) outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data for 23 yr, from 1979 to 2001. A low-level surge index was calculated using the 850-hPa meridional wind component (υ) averaged over a region where sub–monthly scale υ variance shows a local maximum (17.5°–2.5°S, 87.5°–97.5°E). The surge index defines 62 different surge events. Composites of various components were generated based on the index to define relationships between surge events and large-scale fields. Low-level southerly surges over the eastern Indian Ocean originate from midlatitude Rossby waves with strong baroclinic development in the entrance region of a subtropical jet core off Australia’s west coast. Strengthened low-level wind surges cause cross-equatorial flow stretching from the subtropical eastern Indian Ocean to the southern Bay of Bengal. Surges are accompanied by the advection of cold, dry air from midlatitudes into the Tropics. A cold and dry front develops at the leading surge edge during the surge period. Two to four days later, as the surge peaks, negative OLR anomalies develop near the key region. The OLR anomalies indicate a local blow up of convection over the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. Convection reflects increased instability in the surge region, which is caused by low-level dry air advection and near-surface moistening that is forced by enhanced sea surface evaporation associated with the surge. The southerly surge on submonthly time scales is an important bridge linking the Tropics and midlatitudes over the Indian Ocean.

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