A Recent Increase in Long-Lived Heatwaves in China Under the Joint Influence of South Asia and Western North Pacific Subtropical Highs

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-42
Author(s):  
Na LI ◽  
Ziniu XIAO ◽  
Liang ZHAO
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Subtropical High ◽  
South Asian High ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Synergy Index

AbstractLong-lived (≥6 days) heatwaves (HWs) have strong social impacts with serious health implications. Using homogenized historical daily temperatures from China and ECMWF reanalysis data, this study investigates its frequency between 1979 and 2018 and driving mechanisms. It is found that the occurrence of HWs is strongly associated with the joint actions of the South Asian high and the western North Pacific subtropical high, which can be described by a synergy index measured by the boundary distance between the two subtropical high-pressure systems. When the synergy index is positive, there are more long-lived HWs occurrence in the east of the Tibetan Plateau, the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the southern region in China, and vice versa. A Mann-Kendall test shows a significant interdecadal shift around 2004/2005 towards increased occurrence that is consistent with enhanced subtropical high systems. This study shows the important roles of large-scale dynamic systems in regional climate extremes and their future changes.

scholarly journals Modulation of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity by the ISO. Part II: Tracks and Landfalls

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (9) ◽  
pp. 2919-2930 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard C. Y. Li ◽  
Wen Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Phase 1 ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Subtropical High ◽  
Southern Flank

Abstract This study investigates how tropical cyclone (TC) tracks and landfalls are modulated by the two major components of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), the 30–60-day Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the 10–20-day quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO). In the convective phases of the MJO (phases 7 + 8 and 1 + 2), the western North Pacific Ocean (WNP) is mainly clustered with westward- and northwestward-moving TCs. The strong easterlies (southeasterlies) in the southern flank of the subtropical high lead to an increase in TC activity and landfalls in the Philippines and Vietnam (China and Japan) in phase 7 + 8 (phase 1 + 2). In the nonconvective phases (phases 3 + 4 and 5 + 6), TCs change from the original straight-moving type to the recurving type, such that the tendency for landfalls is significantly reduced. The QBWO, on the other hand, has a significant influence on TC landfalls in the Philippines and Japan. The strengthening of the subtropical high in phase 1 + 2 favors the development of westward-moving TCs and results in an increase in landfalls in the Philippines, while in phase 3 + 4 (phase 5 + 6), there is an increase (decrease) in TC activity and landfalls in Japan because of changes in genesis locations and large-scale circulations. The results herein suggest that both the MJO and QBWO exert distinctive impacts on TCs in the WNP.

scholarly journals Mesoscale Features Associated with Tropical Cyclone Formations in the Western North Pacific

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (6) ◽  
pp. 2006-2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheng-Shang Lee ◽  
Kevin K. W. Cheung ◽  
Jenny S. N. Hui ◽  
Russell L. Elsberry
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Synoptic Patterns ◽  
The Mean

Abstract The mesoscale features of 124 tropical cyclone formations in the western North Pacific Ocean during 1999–2004 are investigated through large-scale analyses, satellite infrared brightness temperature (TB), and Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) oceanic wind data. Based on low-level wind flow and surge direction, the formation cases are classified into six synoptic patterns: easterly wave (EW), northeasterly flow (NE), coexistence of northeasterly and southwesterly flow (NE–SW), southwesterly flow (SW), monsoon confluence (MC), and monsoon shear (MS). Then the general convection characteristics and mesoscale convective system (MCS) activities associated with these formation cases are studied under this classification scheme. Convection processes in the EW cases are distinguished from the monsoon-related formations in that the convection is less deep and closer to the formation center. Five characteristic temporal evolutions of the deep convection are identified: (i) single convection event, (ii) two convection events, (iii) three convection events, (iv) gradual decrease in TB, and (v) fluctuating TB, or a slight increase in TB before formation. Although no dominant temporal evolution differentiates cases in the six synoptic patterns, evolutions ii and iii seem to be the common routes taken by the monsoon-related formations. The overall percentage of cases with MCS activity at multiple times is 63%, and in 35% of cases more than one MCS coexisted. Most of the MC and MS cases develop multiple MCSs that lead to several episodes of deep convection. These two patterns have the highest percentage of coexisting MCSs such that potential interaction between these systems may play a role in the formation process. The MCSs in the monsoon-related formations are distributed around the center, except in the NE–SW cases in which clustering of MCSs is found about 100–200 km east of the center during the 12 h before formation. On average only one MCS occurs during an EW formation, whereas the mean value is around two for the other monsoon-related patterns. Both the mean lifetime and time of first appearance of MCS in EW are much shorter than those developed in other synoptic patterns, which indicates that the overall formation evolution in the EW case is faster. Moreover, this MCS is most likely to be found within 100 km east of the center 12 h before formation. The implications of these results to internal mechanisms of tropical cyclone formation are discussed in light of other recent mesoscale studies.

scholarly journals Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific as Revealed by the 2008–09 YOTC Data*

2013 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 1038-1056 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yamei Xu ◽  
Tim Li ◽  
Melinda Peng
Keyword(s):  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Wave Energy ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Energy Dispersion ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
Initial Development ◽  
Wave Trains

Abstract The Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) high-resolution global reanalysis dataset was analyzed to reveal precursor synoptic-scale disturbances related to tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the western North Pacific (WNP) during the 2008–09 typhoon seasons. A time filtering is applied to the data to isolate synoptic (3–10 day), quasi-biweekly (10–20 day), and intraseasonal (20–90 day) time-scale components. The results show that four types of precursor synoptic disturbances associated with TC genesis can be identified in the YOTC data. They are 1) Rossby wave trains associated with preexisting TC energy dispersion (TCED) (24%), 2) synoptic wave trains (SWTs) unrelated to TCED (32%), 3) easterly waves (EWs) (16%), and 4) a combination of either TCED-EW or SWT-EW (24%). The percentage of identifiable genesis events is higher than has been found in previous analyses. Most of the genesis events occurred when atmospheric quasi-biweekly and intraseasonal oscillations are in an active phase, suggesting a large-scale control of low-frequency oscillations on TC formation in the WNP. For genesis events associated with SWT and EW, maximum vorticity was confined in the lower troposphere. During the formation of Jangmi (2008), maximum Rossby wave energy dispersion appeared in the middle troposphere. This differs from other TCED cases in which energy dispersion is strongest at low level. As a result, the midlevel vortex from Rossby wave energy dispersion grew faster during the initial development stage of Jangmi.

scholarly journals Forecasting Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Basin Using the NCEP Operational HWRF: Real-Time Implementation in 2012

2015 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 1355-1373 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vijay Tallapragada ◽  
Chanh Kieu ◽  
Samuel Trahan ◽  
Zhan Zhang ◽  
Qingfu Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Environmental Modeling ◽  
Pacific Basin ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Storm Intensity ◽  
Intensity Forecast ◽  
North Pacific Basin

Abstract This study documents the recent efforts of the hurricane modeling team at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP) Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) in implementing the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF) for real-time tropical cyclone (TC) forecast guidance in the western North Pacific basin (WPAC) from May to December 2012 in support of the operational forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Evaluation of model performance for the WPAC in 2012 reveals that the model has promising skill with the 3-, 4-, and 5-day track errors being 125, 220, and 290 nautical miles (n mi; 1 n mi = 1.852 km), respectively. Intensity forecasts also show good performance, with the most significant intensity error reduction achieved during the first 24 h. Stratification of the track and intensity forecast errors based on storm initial intensity reveals that HWRF tends to underestimate storm intensity for weak storms and overestimate storm intensity for strong storms. Further analysis of the horizontal distribution of track and intensity forecast errors over the WPAC suggests that HWRF possesses a systematic negative intensity bias, slower movement, and a rightward bias in the lower latitudes. At higher latitudes near the East China Sea, HWRF shows a positive intensity bias and faster storm movement. This appears to be related to underestimation of the dominant large-scale system associated with the western Pacific subtropical high, which renders weaker steering flows in this basin.

scholarly journals Interannual and interdecadal impact of Western North Pacific Subtropical High on tropical cyclone activity

2020 ◽  
Vol 54 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 2237-2248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiong Wu ◽  
Xiaochun Wang ◽  
Li Tao
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Subtropical High ◽  
Interdecadal Change ◽  
Steering Flow ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Peak Phase

AbstractIn this study, we analyzed the impacts of Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) on tropical cyclone (TC) activity on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. Based on a clustering analysis method, we grouped TCs in the Western North Pacific into three clusters according to their track patterns. We mainly focus on Cluster 1 (C1) TCs in this work, which is characterized by forming north of 15° N and moving northward. On interannual timescale, the number of C1 TCs is influenced by the intensity variability of the WNPSH, which is represented by the first Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of 850 hPa geopotential height of the region. The WNPSH itself is modulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation at its peak phase in the previous winter, as well as Indian and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies in following seasons. The second EOF mode shows the interdecadal change of WNPSH intensity. The interdecadal variability of WNPSH intensity related to the Pacific climate regime shift could cause anomalies of the steering flow, and lead to the longitudinal shift of C1 TC track. Negative phases of interdecadal Pacific oscillation are associated with easterly anomaly of steering flow, westward shift of C1 TC track, and large TC impact on the East Asia coastal area.

Lightning Frequency and Microphysical Properties of Precipitating Clouds over the Western North Pacific during Winter as Derived from TRMM Multisensor Observations

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (6) ◽  
pp. 2226-2241 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yasu-Masa Kodama ◽  
Haruna Okabe ◽  
Yukie Tomisaka ◽  
Katsuya Kotono ◽  
Yoshimi Kondo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Radar Reflectivity ◽  
Phase Layer ◽  
Convective Clouds ◽  
Microphysical Properties ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Precipitating Clouds

Abstract Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission observations from multiple sensors including precipitation radar, microwave and infrared radiometers, and a lightning sensor were used to describe precipitation, lightning frequency, and microphysical properties of precipitating clouds over the midlatitude ocean. Precipitation over midlatitude oceans was intense during winter and was often accompanied by frequent lightning. Case studies over the western North Pacific from January and February 2000 showed that some lightning occurred in deep precipitating clouds that developed around cyclones and their attendant fronts. Lightning also occurred in convective clouds that developed in regions of large-scale subsidence behind extratropical cyclones where cold polar air masses were strongly heated and moistened from below by the ocean. The relationships between lightning frequency and the minimum polarization corrected temperature (PCT) at 37 and 85 GHz and the profile of the maximum radar reflectivity resembled relationships derived previously for cases in the Tropics. Smaller lapse rates in the maximum radar reflectivity above the melting level indicate vigorous convection that, although shallow and relatively rare, was as strong as convection over tropical oceans. Lightning was most frequent in systems for which the minimum PCT at 37 GHz was less than 260 K. Lightning and PCT at 85 GHz were not as well correlated as lightning and PCT at 37 GHz. Thus, lightning was frequent in convective clouds that contained many large hydrometeors in the mixed-phase layer, because PCT is more sensitive to large hydrometeors at 37 than at 85 GHz. The relationship between lightning occurrence and cloud-top heights derived from infrared observations was not straightforward. Microphysical conditions that support lightning over the midlatitude ocean in winter were similar to conditions in the Tropics and are consistent with Takahashi’s theory of riming electrification.

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