scholarly journals An Analysis of the Potential for Extreme Temperature Change Based on Observations and Model Simulations

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 1539-1554 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barry H. Lynn ◽  
Richard Healy ◽  
Leonard M. Druyan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Maximum Surface ◽  
Temperature Anomalies

Abstract The study analyzes observational climate data for June–August 1977–2004 and simulations of current and future climate scenarios from a nested GCM/regional climate model system to assess the potential for extreme temperature change over the eastern United States. Observational evidence indicates that anomalously warm summers in the eastern United States coincide with anomalously cool eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures, conditions that are conducive to geopotential ridging over the east, less frequent precipitation, and lower accumulated rainfall. The study also found that days following nighttime rain are warmer on average than daytime rain events, emphasizing the importance of the timing of precipitation on the radiation balance. Precipitation frequency and eastern Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies together account for 57% of the 28-yr variance in maximum surface temperature anomalies. Simulation results show the sensitivity of maximum surface air temperature to the moist convection parameterization that is employed, since different schemes produce different diurnal cycles and frequencies of precipitation. The study suggests that, in order to accurately project scenarios of extreme temperature change, models need to realistically simulate changes in the surface energy balance caused by the interannual variation of these precipitation characteristics. The mesoscale model that was realistic in this respect predicted much warmer mean and maximum surface air temperatures for five future summers than the parallel GCM driving simulation.

scholarly journals Sea surface temperature anomalies, seasonal cycle and trend regimes in the eastern Pacific coast

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 1215-1232
Author(s):  
A. Ramos-Rodríguez ◽  
D. B. Lluch-Cota ◽  
S. E. Lluch-Cota ◽  
A. Trasviña-Castro
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Theoretical Curve ◽  
Total Solar Radiation ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Abstract. We used the extended reconstruction of sea surface temperature (ERSST) to analyze the variation of surface temperature and the seasonal cycle along the coast of the eastern Pacific (60° N–60° S, 61 pixels alongshore) from 1950 to 2010 (732 months). First we analyzed the monthly anomalies and looked for a relationship of such anomalies with total solar radiation (TSI) and then, the regime shift detector (RSD) was applied to detect possible temperature regimes in the series. Posterior to this, we calculated a yearly temperature range per pixel (amplitude of seasonal cycle) and through the subtraction of a latitudinal theoretical curve of temperature based on solar irradiance, the residuals of the seasonal cycle were obtained. The results showed an almost complete spatial synchrony and dominance of negative anomalies from 1950 to mid-late 1970's, with a switch to near-zero and positive anomalies in the late 1990's when a shift to negative values is detected. Such a shift lasted until the early 2000's when positive anomalies appear again but there is a change to negative anomalies in the late 2000's. These results were supported by the RSD. The TSI variability shows a clear relationship with that in sea surface temperature anomalies and with the regime changes. This would be due to a difference in the amount of energy received from the sun. Comparing two consecutive periods, 1952–1975 with 1977–1999, the second received 0.39 % more energy (approximately 3 × 108 J m−2) from the sun. Seasonal cycles show larger range at northern latitudes (>40° N), northern tropical-template transition zone (20°–26° N) and in the tropical-equatorial band (0°–30° S). The smaller ranges occur at 0°–16° N and 50°–60° S. The residuals (seasonal minus the theoretical curve) indicate a clear modulation due to advection by ocean currents.

scholarly journals Sea surface temperature anomalies, seasonal cycle and trend regimes in the Eastern Pacific coast

Ocean Science ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Ramos-Rodríguez ◽  
D. B. Lluch-Cota ◽  
S. E. Lluch-Cota ◽  
A. Trasviña-Castro
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Theoretical Curve ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Abstract. We used the extended reconstruction of sea surface temperature (ERSST) to analyze the variation of surface temperature and the seasonal cycle along the coast of the eastern Pacific (60° N–60° S, 61 pixels alongshore) from 1950 to 2010 (732 months). First, we analyzed the monthly anomalies and looked for a relationship of such anomalies with total solar irradiance (TSI) and then the Regime Shift Detector (RSD) was applied to detect possible temperature regimes in the series. Afterwards, we calculated a yearly temperature range per pixel (amplitude of seasonal cycle) and through the subtraction of a latitudinal theoretical curve of temperature based on solar irradiance, the residuals of the seasonal cycle were obtained. The results showed an almost complete spatial synchrony and dominance of negative anomalies from 1950 to mid-late 1970's, with a switch to near-zero and positive anomalies that lasted up to late 1990's when a new shift to negative values was detected. Such a shift lasted until the early 2000's when positive anomalies appeared again but there was a change to negative anomalies in the late 2000's. These results were supported by the RSD. The TSI variability shows a clear relationship with that of sea surface temperature anomalies and with the regime changes. This is probably due to a difference in the amount of energy received from the sun. Comparing the "cool regime" versus the "warm regime", the second one received 0.39% more energy (approximately 3 × 108 J m−2) from the sun. Seasonal cycles show larger ranges at northern latitudes (>40° N), northern tropical-temperate transition zone (20°–26° N) and in the tropical-equatorial band (0°–30° S). The smallest ranges occur at 0°–16° N and 50°–60° S. The residuals (seasonal minus the theoretical curve) indicated a clear modulation due to advection by ocean currents.

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