scholarly journals Probabilistic Seasonal Forecasting of African Drought by Dynamical Models

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1706-1720 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xing Yuan ◽  
Eric F. Wood ◽  
Nathaniel W. Chaney ◽  
Justin Sheffield ◽  
Jonghun Kam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Rainy Season ◽  
Central Africa ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Natural Phenomenon ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Value Decomposition

Abstract As a natural phenomenon, drought can have devastating impacts on local populations through food insecurity and famine in the developing world, such as in Africa. In this study, the authors have established a seasonal hydrologic forecasting system for Africa. The system is based on the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model. With a set of 26-yr (1982–2007) seasonal hydrologic hindcasts run at 0.25°, the probabilistic drought forecasts are validated using the 6-month Standard Precipitation Index (SPI6) and soil moisture percentile as indices. In terms of Brier skill score (BSS), the system is more skillful than climatology out to 3–5 months, except for the forecast of soil moisture drought over central Africa. The spatial distribution of BSS, which is similar to the pattern of persistency, shows more heterogeneity for soil moisture than the SPI6. Drought forecasts based on SPI6 are generally more skillful than for soil moisture, and their differences originate from the skill attribute of resolution rather than reliability. However, the soil moisture drought forecast can be more skillful than SPI6 at the beginning of the rainy season over western and southern Africa because of the strong annual cycle. Singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis of African precipitation and global SSTs indicates that CFSv2 reproduces the ENSO dominance on rainy season drought forecasts quite well, but the corresponding SVD mode from observations and CFSv2 only account for less than 24% and 31% of the covariance, respectively, suggesting that further understanding of drought drivers, including regional atmospheric dynamics and land–atmosphere coupling, is necessary.

scholarly journals Correction of real-time satellite precipitation with satellite soil moisture observations

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (10) ◽  
pp. 4275-4291 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Zhan ◽  
M. Pan ◽  
N. Wanders ◽  
E. F. Wood
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Normal Surface ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Satellite Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Rainfall and soil moisture are two key elements in modeling the interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere. Accurate and high-resolution real-time precipitation is crucial for monitoring and predicting the onset of floods, and allows for alert and warning before the impact becomes a disaster. Assimilation of remote sensing data into a flood-forecasting model has the potential to improve monitoring accuracy. Space-borne microwave observations are especially interesting because of their sensitivity to surface soil moisture and its change. In this study, we assimilate satellite soil moisture retrievals using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model, and a dynamic assimilation technique, a particle filter, to adjust the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) real-time precipitation estimates. We compare updated precipitation with real-time precipitation before and after adjustment and with NLDAS gauge-radar observations. Results show that satellite soil moisture retrievals provide additional information by correcting errors in rainfall bias. The assimilation is most effective in the correction of medium rainfall under dry to normal surface conditions, while limited/negative improvement is seen over wet/saturated surfaces. On the other hand, high-frequency noises in satellite soil moisture impact the assimilation by increasing rainfall frequency. The noise causes larger uncertainty in the false-alarmed rainfall over wet regions. A threshold of 2 mm day−1 soil moisture change is identified and applied to the assimilation, which masked out most of the noise.

scholarly journals Using Cosmic-Ray Neutron Probes in Validating Satellite Soil Moisture Products and Land Surface Models

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 1362 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Berk Duygu ◽  
Zuhal Akyürek
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Cosmic Ray ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Land Surface Models ◽  
Statistical Measures ◽  
Surface Models ◽  
Global Land

Soil moisture content is one of the most important parameters of hydrological studies. Cosmic-ray neutron sensing is a promising proximal soil moisture sensing technique at intermediate scale and high temporal resolution. In this study, we validate satellite soil moisture products for the period of March 2015 and December 2018 by using several existing Cosmic Ray Neutron Probe (CRNP) stations of the COSMOS database and a CRNP station that was installed in the south part of Turkey in October 2016. Soil moisture values, which were inferred from the CRNP station in Turkey, are also validated using a time domain reflectometer (TDR) installed at the same location and soil water content values obtained from a land surface model (Noah LSM) at various depths (0.1 m, 0.3 m, 0.6 m and 1.0 m). The CRNP has a very good correlation with TDR where both measurements show consistent changes in soil moisture due to storm events. Satellite soil moisture products obtained from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), the METOP-A/B Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2), Climate Change Initiative (CCI) and a global land surface model Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) are compared with the soil moisture values obtained from CRNP stations. Coefficient of determination ( r 2 ) and unbiased root mean square error (ubRMSE) are used as the statistical measures. Triple Collocation (TC) was also performed by considering soil moisture values obtained from different soil moisture products and the CRNPs. The validation results are mainly influenced by the location of the sensor and the soil moisture retrieval algorithm of satellite products. The SMAP surface product produces the highest correlations and lowest errors especially in semi-arid areas whereas the ASCAT product provides better results in vegetated areas. Both global and local land surface models’ outputs are highly compatible with the CRNP soil moisture values.

scholarly journals Assimilation of SMOS brightness temperatures or soil moisture retrievals into a land surface model

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (12) ◽  
pp. 4895-4911 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy ◽  
Rolf H. Reichle
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Surface Soil ◽  
Root Zone ◽  
Incidence Angle ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
Surface Soil Moisture ◽  
Brightness Temperatures

Abstract. Three different data products from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission are assimilated separately into the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5) to improve estimates of surface and root-zone soil moisture. The first product consists of multi-angle, dual-polarization brightness temperature (Tb) observations at the bottom of the atmosphere extracted from Level 1 data. The second product is a derived SMOS Tb product that mimics the data at a 40° incidence angle from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission. The third product is the operational SMOS Level 2 surface soil moisture (SM) retrieval product. The assimilation system uses a spatially distributed ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with seasonally varying climatological bias mitigation for Tb assimilation, whereas a time-invariant cumulative density function matching is used for SM retrieval assimilation. All assimilation experiments improve the soil moisture estimates compared to model-only simulations in terms of unbiased root-mean-square differences and anomaly correlations during the period from 1 July 2010 to 1 May 2015 and for 187 sites across the US. Especially in areas where the satellite data are most sensitive to surface soil moisture, large skill improvements (e.g., an increase in the anomaly correlation by 0.1) are found in the surface soil moisture. The domain-average surface and root-zone skill metrics are similar among the various assimilation experiments, but large differences in skill are found locally. The observation-minus-forecast residuals and analysis increments reveal large differences in how the observations add value in the Tb and SM retrieval assimilation systems. The distinct patterns of these diagnostics in the two systems reflect observation and model errors patterns that are not well captured in the assigned EnKF error parameters. Consequently, a localized optimization of the EnKF error parameters is needed to further improve Tb or SM retrieval assimilation.

scholarly journals Deriving surface soil moisture from reflected GNSS signal observations from a grassland site in southwestern France

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sibo Zhang ◽  
Jean-Christophe Calvet ◽  
José Darrozes ◽  
Nicolas Roussel ◽  
Frédéric Frappart ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Ground Surface ◽  
Satellite System ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Global Navigation Satellite ◽  
Grassland Site

Abstract. This work aims to assess the estimation of surface volumetric soil moisture (VSM) using the Global Navigation Satellite System Interferometric Reflectometry (GNSS-IR) technique. Year-round observations were acquired from a grassland site in southwestern France using an antenna consecutively placed at two contrasting heights above the ground surface (3.3 or 29.4 m). The VSM retrievals are compared with two independent reference datasets: in situ observations of soil moisture, and numerical simulations of soil moisture and vegetation biomass from the ISBA (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere and Atmosphere) land surface model. Scaled VSM estimates can be retrieved throughout the year removing vegetation effects by the separation of growth and senescence periods and by the filtering of the GNSS-IR observations that are most affected by vegetation. Antenna height has no significant impact on the quality of VSM estimates. Comparisons between the VSM GNSS-IR retrievals and the in situ VSM observations at a depth of 5 cm show a good agreement (R2 = 0.86 and RMSE = 0.04 m3 m−3). It is shown that the signal is sensitive to the grass litter water content and that this effect triggers differences between VSM retrievals and in situ VSM observations at depths of 1 cm and 5 cm, especially during light rainfall events.

scholarly journals SMOS Neural Network Soil Moisture Data Assimilation in a Land Surface Model and Atmospheric Impact

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nemesio Rodriguez-Fernandez ◽  
Patricia de Rosnay ◽  
Clement Albergel ◽  
Philippe Richaume ◽  
Filipe Aires ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Northern Asia ◽  
The Impact

The assimilation of Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) data into the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) H-TESSEL (Hydrology revised - Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land) model is presented. SMOS soil moisture (SM) estimates have been produced specifically by training a neural network with SMOS brightness temperatures as input and H-TESSEL model SM simulations as reference. This can help the assimilation of SMOS information in several ways: (1) the neural network soil moisture (NNSM) data have a similar climatology to the model, (2) no global bias is present with respect to the model even if regional differences can exist. Experiments performing joint data assimilation (DA) of NNSM, 2 metre air temperature and relative humidity or NNSM-only DA are discussed. The resulting SM was evaluated against a large number of in situ measurements of SM obtaining similar results to those of the model with no assimilation, even if significant differences were found from site to site. In addition, atmospheric forecasts initialized with H-TESSEL runs (without DA) or with the analysed SM were compared to measure of the impact of the satellite information. Although, NNSM DA has an overall neutral impact in the forecast in the Tropics, a significant positive impact was found in other areas and periods, especially in regions with limited in situ information. The joint NNSM, T2m and RH2m DA improves the forecast for all the seasons in the Southern Hemisphere. The impact is mostly due to T2m and RH2m, but SMOS NN DA alone also improves the forecast in July- September. In the Northern Hemisphere, the joint NNSM, T2m and RH2m DA improves the forecast in April-September, while NNSM alone has a significant positive effect in July-September. Furthermore, forecasting skill maps show that SMOS NNSM improves the forecast in North America and in Northern Asia for up to 72 hours lead time.

scholarly journals Evaluating a land surface model at a water-limited site: implications for land surface contributions to droughts and heatwaves

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mengyuan Mu ◽  
Martin De Kauwe ◽  
Anna Ukkola ◽  
Andy Pitman ◽  
Teresa Gimeno ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Water Fluxes ◽  
Land Surface Models ◽  
Groundwater Aquifer ◽  
Surface Models

<p>Land surface models underpin coupled climate model projections of droughts and heatwaves. However, the lack of simultaneous observations of individual components of evapotranspiration, concurrent with root-zone soil moisture, has limited previous model evaluations. Here, we use a comprehensive set of observations from a water-limited site in southeastern Australia including both evapotranspiration and soil moisture to a depth of 4.5 m to evaluate the Community Atmosphere-Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) land surface model. We demonstrate that alternative process representations within CABLE had the capacity to improve simulated evapotranspiration, but not necessarily soil moisture dynamics - highlighting problems of model evaluations against water fluxes alone. Our best simulation was achieved by resolving a soil evaporation bias; a more realistic initialisation of the groundwater aquifer state; higher vertical soil resolution informed by observed soil properties; and further calibrating soil hydraulic conductivity. Despite these improvements, the role of the empirical soil moisture stress function in influencing the simulated water fluxes remained important: using a site calibrated function reduced the soil water stress on plants by 36 % during drought and 23 % at other times. These changes in CABLE not only improve the seasonal cycle of evapotranspiration, but also affect the latent and sensible heat fluxes during droughts and heatwaves. The range of parameterisations tested led to differences of ~150 W m<sup>-2</sup> in the simulated latent heat flux during a heatwave, implying a strong impact of parameterisations on the capacity for evaporative cooling and feedbacks to the boundary layer (when coupled). Overall, our results highlight the opportunity to advance the capability of land surface models to capture water cycle processes, particularly during meteorological extremes, when sufficient observations of both evapotranspiration fluxes and soil moisture profiles are available.</p>

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