scholarly journals Estimating Random Uncertainty in Airborne Flux Measurements over Alaskan Tundra: Update on the Flux Fragment Method

2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (8) ◽  
pp. 1807-1822 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronald Dobosy ◽  
David Sayres ◽  
Claire Healy ◽  
Edward Dumas ◽  
Mark Heuer ◽  
...  

AbstractAirborne turbulence measurement gives a spatial distribution of air–surface fluxes that networks of fixed surface sites typically cannot capture. Much work has improved the accuracy of such measurements and the estimation of the uncertainty peculiar to streams of turbulence data measured from the air. A particularly significant challenge and opportunity is to distinguish fluxes from different surface types, especially those occurring in patches smaller than the necessary averaging length. The flux fragment method (FFM), a conditional-sampling variant of eddy covariance in the space–time domain, was presented in 2008. It was shown capable of segregating the mean flux density (CO2, H2O, sensible heat) in maize from that in soybeans over the patchwork farmlands of Illinois. This was, however, an ideal surface for the method, and the random-error estimate used a relatively rudimentary bootstrap resampling. The present paper describes an upgraded random-error estimate that accounts for the serial correlation of the time/space series and the heterogeneity of the signal. Results are presented from the Alaskan tundra. Though recognized as important, systematic error estimates are not covered in this paper. Some discussion is offered on the relation of the FFM to other approaches similarly motivated, particularly those using wavelets. Successful measurement of the variation of air–surface exchange over heterogeneous surfaces has value for developing and improving process models relating surface flux to remotely sensible quantities, such as the vegetative land-cover type and its condition.

The interpretation of measurements of the land-atmosphere exchange of NO and NO 2 is complicated by the interference of chemical reactions in air. In the absence of measurements to test correction procedures a one-dimensional surface layer model was constructed to generate concentrations and fluxes of relevant trace gases in the surface layer to simulate measurement data. The model contains a detailed description of surface exchange processes and a comprehensive submodel describing relevant reactions in air including hydrocarbons. To provide realistic conditions in the simulation runs important parameters and boundary conditions to drive the model were obtained from a large field experiment. The results of calculations with the model were used to test and compare several existing and new procedures to correct flux measurements. In testing the model important parameters such as air concentrations and surface fluxes were varied over an order of magnitude in order to compare the procedures in a broad range of conditions. The calculations showed that the true surface flux of NO and NO 2 may differ from the uncorrected flux by, on average, 20% during the day to 40% at night. Correction procedures from the literature yielded incorrect results with differences as large as 100% between the modelled and true surface fluxes because basic assumptions were not valid. A new, simple, correction procedure is described which derives fluxes that differ by less than 5% from the true flux during the day and less than 20% at night. All studied procedures were then applied to field data to derive the true surface flux of NO and NO 2 above grassland.


Ocean Science ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 59-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. C. Wells ◽  
S. A. Josey ◽  
R. E. Hadfield

Abstract. The upper ocean heat budget (0–300 m) of the North Atlantic from 20°–60° N is investigated using data from Argo profiling floats for 1999–2005 and the NCEP/NCAR and NOC surface flux datasets. Estimates of the different terms in the budget (heat storage, advection, diffusion and surface exchange) are obtained using the methodology developed by Hadfield et al. (2007a, b). The method includes optimal interpolation of the individual profiles to produce gridded fields with error estimates at a 10°×10° grid box resolution. Closure of the heat budget is obtained within the error estimates for some regions – particularly the eastern subtropical Atlantic – but not for those boxes that include the Gulf Stream. Over the whole range considered, closure is obtained for 13 (9) out of 20 boxes with the NOC (NCEP/NCAR) surface fluxes. The seasonal heat budget at 20–30° N, 35–25° W is considered in detail. Here, the NCEP based budget has an annual mean residual of −55±35 Wm−2 compared with a NOC based value of −4±35 Wm−2. For this box, the net heat divergence of 36 Wm−2 (Ekman=−4 Wm−2, geostrophic=11 Wm−2, diffusion=29 Wm−2) offsets the net heating of 32 Wm−2 from the NOC surface heat fluxes. The results in this box are consistent with an earlier evaluation of the fluxes using measurements from research buoys in the subduction array which revealed biases in NCEP but good agreement of the buoy values with the NOC fields.


2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. C. Wells ◽  
S. A. Josey ◽  
R. E. Hadfield

Abstract. The upper ocean heat budget (0–300 m) of the North Atlantic from 20°–60° N is investigated using data from Argo profiling floats for 1999–2005 and the NCEP/NCAR and NOC surface flux datasets. Estimates of the different terms in the budget (heat storage, advection, diffusion and surface exchange) are obtained using the methodology developed by Hadfield et al. (2007). The method includes optimal interpolation of the individual profiles to produce gridded fields with error estimates at a 10×10 degree grid box resolution. Closure of the heat budget is obtained within the error estimates for some regions – particularly the eastern subtropical Atlantic – but not for those boxes that include the Gulf Stream. Over the whole range considered, closure is obtained for 13 (9) out of 20 boxes with the NOC (NCEP/NCAR) surface fluxes. The seasonal heat budget at 20°–30° N, 35°–25° W is considered in detail. Here, the NCEP based budget has an annual mean residual of -55±35 W m-2 compared with a NOC based value of -4±35 W m-2. For this box, the net heat divergence of 36 W m-2 (Ekman=-4 W m-2, geostrophic=11 W m-2, diffusion=29 W m-2) offsets the net heating of 32 W m-2 from the NOC surface heat fluxes. The results in this box are consistent with an earlier evaluation of the fluxes using measurements from research buoys in the subduction array which revealed biases in NCEP but good agreement of the buoy values with the NOC fields.


2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (4) ◽  
pp. 1149-1168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon P. de Szoeke ◽  
Eric D. Skyllingstad ◽  
Paquita Zuidema ◽  
Arunchandra S. Chandra

Abstract Cold pools dominate the surface temperature variability observed over the central Indian Ocean (0°, 80°E) for 2 months of research cruise observations in the Dynamics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) experiment in October–December 2011. Cold pool fronts are identified by a rapid drop of temperature. Air in cold pools is slightly drier than the boundary layer (BL). Consistent with previous studies, cold pools attain wet-bulb potential temperatures representative of saturated downdrafts originating from the lower midtroposphere. Wind and surface fluxes increase, and rain is most likely within the ~20-min cold pool front. Greatest integrated water vapor and liquid follow the front. Temperature and velocity fluctuations shorter than 6 min achieve 90% of the surface latent and sensible heat flux in cold pools. The temperature of the cold pools recovers in about 20 min, chiefly by mixing at the top of the shallow cold wake layer, rather than by surface flux. Analysis of conserved variables shows mean BL air is composed of 51% air entrained from the BL top (800 m), 22% saturated downdrafts, and 27% air at equilibrium with the ocean surface. The number of cold pools, and their contribution to the BL heat and moisture, nearly doubles in the convectively active phase compared to the suppressed phase of the Madden–Julian oscillation.


2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 5523-5533 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sander van der Laan ◽  
Swagath Manohar ◽  
Alex Vermeulen ◽  
Fred Bosveld ◽  
Harro Meijer ◽  
...  

Abstract. We present a new methodology, which we call Single Pair of Observations Technique with Eddy Covariance (SPOT-EC), to estimate regional-scale surface fluxes of 222Rn from tower-based observations of 222Rn activity concentration, CO2 mole fractions and direct CO2 flux measurements from eddy covariance. For specific events, the regional (222Rn) surface flux is calculated from short-term changes in ambient (222Rn) activity concentration scaled by the ratio of the mean CO2 surface flux for the specific event to the change in its observed mole fraction. The resulting 222Rn surface emissions are integrated in time (between the moment of observation and the last prior background levels) and space (i.e. over the footprint of the observations). The measurement uncertainty obtained is about ±15 % for diurnal events and about ±10 % for longer-term (e.g. seasonal or annual) means. The method does not provide continuous observations, but reliable daily averages can be obtained. We applied our method to in situ observations from two sites in the Netherlands: Cabauw station (CBW) and Lutjewad station (LUT). For LUT, which is an intensive agricultural site, we estimated a mean 222Rn surface flux of (0.29 ± 0.02) atoms cm−2 s−1 with values  > 0.5 atoms cm−2 s−1 to the south and south-east. For CBW we estimated a mean 222Rn surface flux of (0.63 ± 0.04) atoms cm−2 s−1. The highest values were observed to the south-west, where the soil type is mainly river clay. For both stations good agreement was found between our results and those from measurements with soil chambers and two recently published 222Rn soil flux maps for Europe. At both sites, large spatial and temporal variability of 222Rn surface fluxes were observed which would be impractical to measure with a soil chamber. SPOT-EC, therefore, offers an important new tool for estimating regional-scale 222Rn surface fluxes. Practical applications furthermore include calibration of process-based 222Rn soil flux models, validation of atmospheric transport models and performing regional-scale inversions, e.g. of greenhouse gases via the SPOT 222Rn-tracer method.


2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 2619-2633 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Feng ◽  
P. I. Palmer ◽  
H. Bösch ◽  
S. Dance

Abstract. We have developed an ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to estimate 8-day regional surface fluxes of CO2 from space-borne CO2 dry-air mole fraction observations (XCO2) and evaluate the approach using a series of synthetic experiments, in preparation for data from the NASA Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO). The 32-day duty cycle of OCO alternates every 16 days between nadir and glint measurements of backscattered solar radiation at short-wave infrared wavelengths. The EnKF uses an ensemble of states to represent the error covariances to estimate 8-day CO2 surface fluxes over 144 geographical regions. We use a 12×8-day lag window, recognising that XCO2 measurements include surface flux information from prior time windows. The observation operator that relates surface CO2 fluxes to atmospheric distributions of XCO2 includes: a) the GEOS-Chem transport model that relates surface fluxes to global 3-D distributions of CO2 concentrations, which are sampled at the time and location of OCO measurements that are cloud-free and have aerosol optical depths <0.3; and b) scene-dependent averaging kernels that relate the CO2 profiles to XCO2, accounting for differences between nadir and glint measurements, and the associated scene-dependent observation errors. We show that OCO XCO2 measurements significantly reduce the uncertainties of surface CO2 flux estimates. Glint measurements are generally better at constraining ocean CO2 flux estimates. Nadir XCO2 measurements over the terrestrial tropics are sparse throughout the year because of either clouds or smoke. Glint measurements provide the most effective constraint for estimating tropical terrestrial CO2 fluxes by accurately sampling fresh continental outflow over neighbouring oceans. We also present results from sensitivity experiments that investigate how flux estimates change with 1) bias and unbiased errors, 2) alternative duty cycles, 3) measurement density and correlations, 4) the spatial resolution of estimated flux estimates, and 5) reducing the length of the lag window and the size of the ensemble. At the revision stage of this manuscript, the OCO instrument failed to reach its orbit after it was launched on 24 February 2009. The EnKF formulation presented here is also applicable to GOSAT measurements of CO2 and CH4.


2009 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
D. M. Smeenge ◽  
M. J. Barron ◽  
M. T. Nielsen ◽  
J. Goldman ◽  
M. C. Frost

Nitric Oxide (NO) is small, free radical gas that has been shown to have a wide variety of physiological functions, including the ability to hinder tumor angiogenesis at high, but non lethal, concentrations [1]. Previous work suggests that if NO could be effectively delivered in vivo to tumors of patients currently undergoing chemotherapy treatments at the appropriate levels, less damaging chemotherapy treatments could be used against cancer [2]. This could increase the overall survivability of cancer patients, especially in those prone to the harmful effects of chemotherapy: children, elderly, and those of weak immune systems. If NO is especially successful at preventing and eliminating tumor growth, angiogenesis, and carcinogenesis the need for stressful chemotherapy treatments could be eliminated altogether. This project is focused on developing novel photosensitive NO donors that can be incorporated into polymeric systems and used in a fiber optic drug delivery system. Development of these NO-releasing polymers will allow continued investigation of NO's role in tumor death by precisely controlling the surface flux of NO that cells are exposed to. Generating specific surface fluxes of NO from polymer films has been demonstrated by using polymer films that contain photoinitiated NO donors [3], prepared by synthesizing S-nitrosothiol (RSNO) derivitized polymer fillers that are blended into hydrophobic polymers and cast into a film. These films generate and sustain a surface flux of NO based on the wavelength and intensity of light used [3]. Polymers releasing NO are more promising as an NO donor than simply injecting NO into samples because they allow for spatial and temporal control of NO delivery. The specific concentration of NO needed to produce desirable effects on tumor cells (i.e., apoptosis) is not known. Data will be presented that show the synthesis and NO-release properties of novel RSNOs based on the nitrosation of benzyl mercaptan thiols. Specifically, UV-Vis spectrum of benzyl mercaptan in toluene and S-nitrosobenzyl mercaptan after the addition of t-butyl nitrite will be presented. We are currently investigating the effects of varying NO-surface fluxes generated from photolytic NO donating polymer films on aortic smooth muscle cell cultures obtained from mice. Once we have established that we can quantitatively determine the effects of different levels of NO on the proliferation of smooth muscle cell cultures, work will begin to apply this methodology and these novel NO-releasing polymeric systems to begin investigating what durations and surface fluxes of NO are necessary to have tumorcidal effects on specific cancer cells.


2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuzhan Ren

Abstract A solution to the 3D transport equation for passive tracers in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), formulated in terms of Green’s function (GF), is derived to show the connection between the concentration and surface fluxes of passive tracers through GF. Analytical solutions to the 1D vertical diffusion equation are derived to reveal the nonlinear dependence of the concentration and flux on the diffusivity, time, and height, and are employed to examine the impact of the diffusivity on the diurnal variations of CO2 in the ABL. The properties of transport operator H and their implications in inverse modeling are discussed. It is found that H has a significant contribution to the rectifier effect in the diurnal variations of CO2. Since H is the integral of GF in time, the narrow distribution of GF in time justifies the reduction of the size of H in inverse modeling. The exponential decay of GF with height suggests that the estimated surface fluxes in inverse modeling are more sensitive to the observations in the lower ABL. The solutions and first mean value theorem are employed to discuss the uncertainties associated with the concentration–mean surface flux equation used to link the concentrations and mean surface flux. Both analytical and numerical results show that the equation can introduce big errors, particularly when surface flux is sign indefinite. Numerical results show that the conclusions about the evolution properties of passive tracers based on the analytical solutions also hold in the cases with a more complicated diffusion coefficient and time-varying ABL height.


Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 465
Author(s):  
Bernard Cappelaere ◽  
Denis Feurer ◽  
Théo Vischel ◽  
Catherine Ottlé ◽  
Hassane Bil-Assanou Issoufou ◽  
...  

In distributed land surface modeling (LSM) studies, uncertainty in the rainfields that are used to force models is a major source of error in predicted land surface response variables. This is particularly true for applications in the African Sahel region, where weak knowledge of highly time/space-variable convective rainfall in a poorly monitored region is a considerable obstacle to such developments. In this study, we used a field-based stochastic rainfield generator to analyze the propagation of the rainfall uncertainty through a distributed land surface model simulating water and energy fluxes in Sahelian ecosystems. Ensemble time/space rainfields were generated from field observations of the local AMMA-CATCH-Niger recording raingauge network. The rainfields were then used to force the SEtHyS-Savannah LSM, yielding an ensemble of time/space simulated fluxes. Through informative graphical representations and innovative diagnosis metrics, these outputs were analyzed to separate the different components of flux variability, among which was the uncertainty represented by ensemble-wise variability. Scale dependence was analyzed for each flux type in the water and energy budgets, producing a comprehensive picture of uncertainty propagation for the various flux types, with its relationship to intrinsic space/time flux variability. The study was performed over a 2530 km2 domain over six months, covering an entire monsoon season and the subsequent dry-down, using a kilometer/daily base resolution of analysis. The newly introduced dimensionless uncertainty measure, called the uncertainty coefficient, proved to be more effective in describing uncertainty patterns and relationships than a more classical measure based on variance fractions. Results show a clear scaling relationship in uncertainty coefficients between rainfall and the dependent fluxes, specific to each flux type. These results suggest a higher sensitivity to rainfall uncertainty for hydrological than for agro-ecological or meteorological applications, even though eddy fluxes do receive a substantial part of that source uncertainty.


2013 ◽  
Vol 368 (1621) ◽  
pp. 20130124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin L. Dennis ◽  
Donna B. Schwede ◽  
Jesse O. Bash ◽  
Jon E. Pleim ◽  
John T. Walker ◽  
...  

Reactive nitrogen (N r ) is removed by surface fluxes (air–surface exchange) and wet deposition. The chemistry and physics of the atmosphere result in a complicated system in which competing chemical sources and sinks exist and impact that removal. Therefore, uncertainties are best examined with complete regional chemical transport models that simulate these feedbacks. We analysed several uncertainties in regional air quality model resistance analogue representations of air–surface exchange for unidirectional and bi-directional fluxes and their effect on the continental N r budget. Model sensitivity tests of key parameters in dry deposition formulations showed that uncertainty estimates of continental total nitrogen deposition are surprisingly small, 5 per cent or less, owing to feedbacks in the chemistry and rebalancing among removal pathways. The largest uncertainties (5%) occur with the change from a unidirectional to a bi-directional NH 3 formulation followed by uncertainties in bi-directional compensation points (1–4%) and unidirectional aerodynamic resistance (2%). Uncertainties have a greater effect at the local scale. Between unidirectional and bi-directional formulations, single grid cell changes can be up to 50 per cent, whereas 84 per cent of the cells have changes less than 30 per cent. For uncertainties within either formulation, single grid cell change can be up to 20 per cent, but for 90 per cent of the cells changes are less than 10 per cent.


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