Impacts of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves on Environmental Conditions for Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (7) ◽  
pp. 2198-2214 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Ventrice ◽  
Christopher D. Thorncroft ◽  
Carl J. Schreck

Abstract High-amplitude convectively coupled equatorial atmospheric Kelvin waves (CCKWs) are explored over the tropical Atlantic during the boreal summer (1989–2009). Focus is given to the atmospheric environmental conditions that are important for tropical cyclogenesis. CCKWs are characterized by deep westerly vertical wind shear to the east of its convectively active phase and easterly vertical wind shear to the west of it. This dynamical signature increases vertical wind shear over the western tropical Atlantic ahead of the convectively active phase, and reduces vertical wind shear after its passage. The opposite is true over the eastern tropical Atlantic where the climatological vertical wind shear is easterly. Positive total column water vapor (TCWV) anomalies progress eastward with the convectively active phase of the CCKW, whereas negative TCWV anomalies progress eastward with the convectively suppressed phase. During the passage of the convectively active phase of the CCKW, a zonally oriented strip of low-level cyclonic relative vorticity is generated over the tropical Atlantic. Two days later, this strip becomes more wavelike and moves back toward the west. This signature resembles a train of westward-moving easterly waves and suggests CCKWs may influence such events. Strong CCKWs over the tropical Atlantic tend to occur during the decay of the active convection associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation over the Pacific. This relationship could be used to provide better long-range forecasts of tropical convective patterns and Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis.

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (22) ◽  
pp. 8342-8356 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaojie Zhu ◽  
Li Xu ◽  
Cristiana Stan

Abstract The vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and its relationship with ENSO are analyzed in the superparameterized Community Climate System Model, version 4 (SP-CCSM4) and in the conventional CCSM4. The climatology of vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and the ENSO–shear relationship are well simulated in the control runs of SP-CCSM4 and CCSM4. However, because of different representations of cloud processes, in a warmer climate such as the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, SP-CCSM4 projects increased mean westerlies at 200 hPa during July through October (JASO), whereas CCSM4 projects decreased mean westerlies at 200 hPa over the equatorial Atlantic. The different changes in the upper-level wind further contribute to different projection of JASO mean vertical wind shear over the equatorial Atlantic. In the RCP8.5 scenario, when excluding the linear trend, projection of the ENSO–shear relationships by SP-CCSM4 retains similar features as in the observed current climate, whereas the ENSO–shear relationship projected by CCSM4 indicates an increase in the vertical wind shear dominating the tropical Atlantic during El Niño events. The difference in projection of ENSO–shear relationship is, to a certain extent, related to the different response of the tropical Atlantic SST to ENSO. Analysis of the climate change projection of Walker circulation, cloud cover, and convective activity illustrates that superparameterization simulates a stronger suppression of African convection than the conventional parameterization of moist processes. The weak convective activity diminishes the divergent wind associated with the vertical motion, which contributes to increased westerlies projected in SP-CCSM4.


2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (6) ◽  
pp. 2007-2037 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott A. Braun

Abstract The existence of the Saharan air layer (SAL), a layer of warm, dry, dusty air frequently present over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, has long been appreciated. The nature of its impacts on hurricanes remains unclear, with some researchers arguing that the SAL amplifies hurricane development and with others arguing that it inhibits it. The potential negative impacts of the SAL include 1) vertical wind shear associated with the African easterly jet; 2) warm air aloft, which increases thermodynamic stability at the base of the SAL; and 3) dry air, which produces cold downdrafts. Multiple NASA satellite datasets and NCEP global analyses are used to characterize the SAL’s properties and evolution in relation to tropical cyclones and to evaluate these potential negative influences. The SAL is shown to occur in a large-scale environment that is already characteristically dry as a result of large-scale subsidence. Strong surface heating and deep dry convective mixing enhance the dryness at low levels (primarily below ∼700 hPa), but moisten the air at midlevels. Therefore, mid- to-upper-level dryness is not generally a defining characteristic of the SAL, but is instead often a signature of subsidence. The results further show that storms generally form on the southern side of the jet, where the background cyclonic vorticity is high. Based upon its depiction in NCEP Global Forecast System meteorological analyses, the jet often helps to form the northern side of the storms and is present to equal extents for both strengthening and weakening storms, suggesting that jet-induced vertical wind shear may not be a frequent negative influence. Warm SAL air is confined to regions north of the jet and generally does not impact the tropical cyclone precipitation south of the jet. Composite analyses of the early stages of tropical cyclones occurring in association with the SAL support the inferences from the individual cases noted above. Furthermore, separate composites for strongly strengthening and for weakening storms show few substantial differences in the SAL characteristics between these two groups, suggesting that the SAL is not a determinant of whether a storm will intensify or weaken in the days after formation. Key differences between these cases are found mainly at upper levels where the flow over strengthening storms allows for an expansive outflow and produces little vertical shear, while for weakening storms, the shear is stronger and the outflow is significantly constrained.


2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (12) ◽  
pp. 2969-2983 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anantha R. Aiyyer ◽  
Chris Thorncroft

Abstract The spatiotemporal variability of the 200–850-hPa vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic is examined for a period of 46 yr. This work extends and updates past studies by considering a longer data record as well as a tropospheric-deep measure of vertical wind shear. Composite fields are constructed to illustrate the spatial pattern of the large-scale circulation associated with the mean and extreme cases of vertical shear within the tropical Atlantic. The contemporaneous relationship of vertical shear with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Sahel precipitation are also examined. While the ENSO–shear correlation appears to have slightly strengthened during the past decade, the Sahel–shear correlation has become significantly degraded. A combined empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the zonal and meridional components of the vertical shear reveals interannual and multidecadal modes. The leading EOF exhibits mainly interannual variability and is highly correlated with ENSO. The second EOF is associated with a multidecadal temporal evolution and is correlated with Sahel precipitation. Both EOFs correlate at the same level with tropical cyclones in the main development region of the tropical Atlantic.


2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (6) ◽  
pp. 1910-1924 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Ventrice ◽  
Chris D. Thorncroft

Abstract The role of convectively coupled atmospheric Kelvin waves (CCKWs) on African easterly wave (AEW) activity is explored over tropical Africa during boreal summer. Examination of the pre-Alberto AEW in 2000 highlights the observation that the convective trigger for the initiation of the AEW was generated by a strong CCKW and that the subsequent intensification of the AEW at the West African coast was associated with a second CCKW. Composite analysis shows that, generally, AEW activity increases during and after the passage of the convectively active phase of strong CCKWs. The increase in AEW activity is consistent with convective triggering at the leading edge of the convective phase of the CCKW. This convective triggering occurs in a region where the background low-level easterly vertical wind shear is increased by the CCKW. As the AEW propagates westward through the convectively active phase of the CCKW, it can develop in an environment favorable for convection. It is also shown that this phase of the CCKW is characterized by enhanced meridional vorticity gradients in the core of the African easterly jet suggesting that enhanced mixed barotropic–baroclinic growth may also be responsible for enhanced AEW activity there.


2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (4) ◽  
pp. 1108-1124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Ventrice ◽  
Christopher D. Thorncroft ◽  
Matthew A. Janiga

This paper explores a three-way interaction between an African easterly wave (AEW), the diurnal cycle of convection over the Guinea Highlands (GHs), and a convectively coupled atmospheric equatorial Kelvin wave (CCKW). These interactions resulted in the genesis of Tropical Storm Debby over the eastern tropical Atlantic during late August 2006. The diurnal cycle of convection downstream of the GHs during the month of August is explored. Convection associated with the coherent diurnal cycle is observed off the coast of West Africa during the morning. Later, convection initiates over and downstream of the GHs during the afternoon. These convective features were pronounced during the passage of the pre-Debby AEW. The superposition between the convectively active phase of a strong CCKW and the pre-Debby AEW occurred shortly after merging with the diurnally varying convection downstream of the GHs. The CCKW–AEW interaction preceded tropical cyclogenesis by 18 h. The CCKW provided a favorable environment for deep convection. An analysis of high-amplitude CCKWs over the tropical Atlantic and West Africa during the Northern Hemisphere boreal summer (1979–2009) highlights a robust relationship between CCKWs and the frequency of tropical cyclogenesis. Tropical cyclogenesis is found to be less frequent immediately prior to the passage of the convectively active phase of the CCKW, more frequent during the passage, and most frequent just after the passage.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei-Ting Chen ◽  
Hong-Wen Jian ◽  
Peng-Jen Chen Chen ◽  
Chien-Ming Wu ◽  
Kristen L. Rasmussen

<p>This study investigates the synoptic-scale flows associated with extreme rainfall systems over the Asian–Australian monsoon region (90°E–160°E and 12°S–27°N). On the basis of the statistics of the 17-year Precipitation Radar observations from Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission, a total of 916 extreme systems, with both the horizontal size and maximum rainfall intensity exceeding the 99.9<sup>th</sup> percentiles of the tropical rainfall systems, are identified over this region. The synoptic wind pattern and rainfall distribution surrounding each system are classified into four major types: vortex, coastal, coastal with vortex, and none of above, with each accounting for 44%, 29%, 7%, and 20%, respectively. The vortex type occurs mainly over the off-equatorial areas in boreal summer. The coast-related types show significant seasonal variations in their occurrence, with high frequency in the Bay of Bengal in boreal summer and on the west side of Borneo and Sumatra in boreal winter. The none-of-the-above type occurs mostly over the open ocean, and in boreal winter, these events are mainly associated with the cold surge events. The environment analysis shows that coast-related extremes in the warm season are found within the areas where high total water vapor and low-level vertical wind shear occur frequently. Despite the different synoptic environments, these extremes show a similar internal structure, with broad stratiform and wide convective core (WCC) rain. Furthermore, the maximum rain rate is located mostly over the convective area, near the convective–stratiform boundary in the system. Our results highlight the critical role of the strength and direction of synoptic flows in the generation of extreme rainfall systems near coastal areas. With the enhancement of the low-level vertical wind shear and moisture by the synoptic flow, the coastal convection triggered diurnally has a higher chance to organize into mesoscale convective systems and hence a higher probability to produce extreme rainfall.</p>


2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 1301-1317 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Molinari ◽  
Kelly Lombardo ◽  
David Vollaro

Abstract A packet of equatorial Rossby (ER) waves that lasted 2.5 months is identified in the lower troposphere of the northwest Pacific. Waves within the packet had a period of 22 days, a wavelength of 3600 km, a westward phase speed of 1.9 m s−1, and a near-zero group speed. The wave properties followed the ER wave dispersion relation with an equivalent depth near 25 m. The packet was associated with the development of at least 8 of the 13 tropical cyclones that formed during the period. A composite was constructed around the genesis locations. Tropical cyclones formed east of the center of the composite ER wave low in a region of strong convection and a separate 850-hPa vorticity maximum. The background flow during the life of the packet was characterized by 850-hPa zonal wind convergence and easterly vertical wind shear. Wave amplitude peaked at the west end of the convergent region, suggesting that wave accumulation played a significant role in the growth of the packet. The presence of easterly vertical wind shear provided an environment that trapped energy in the lower troposphere. Each of these processes increases wave amplitude and thus the likelihood of tropical cyclone formation within the waves. The initial low pressure region within the wave packet met Lander’s definition of a monsoon gyre. It developed to the west of persistent localized convection that followed the penetration of an upper-tropospheric trough into the subtropics. It is argued that the monsoon gyre represented the initial ER wave low within the packet.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-49
Author(s):  
Shaohua Chen ◽  
Haikun Zhao ◽  
Philp J. Klotzbach ◽  
Graciela B. Raga ◽  
Jian Cao ◽  
...  

AbstractThis study analyzes decadal modulation of trans-basin variability (TBV) on extended boreal summer (May-October) tropical cyclone frequency (TCF) over the western North Pacific (WNP), central-eastern North Pacific (CENP) and North Atlantic (NATL) basins. There are distinct decadal regimes (P1:1979-1997, P2:1998-2008, and P3:2009-2019) with changes in the interannual relationship between TBV and TCF over these three basins. During P1 and P3, there is a significant inter-annual TBV-TCF relationship over the CENP and NATL, but these relationships become insignificant during P2. Changes in the interannual TBV-TCF relationship over the WNP are opposite to those over the CENP and NATL basins, with significant relationship during P2 but insignificant relationship during P1 and P3. Changes in all three basins coincide with decadal changes in large-scale parameters associated with TBV. Consistent basin-wide changes in lower-tropospheric vorticity (vertical wind shear) associated with TBV appear to be largely responsible for changes in total TCF over the NATL (CENP) during P1 and P3. In contrast, a dipole pattern in lower-tropospheric vorticity and vertical wind shear anomalies associated with TBV over the NATL and CENP basins occurs during P2, leading to an insignificant interannual TBV-TCF relationship over the NATL and CENP basins. Over the WNP, a basin-wide consistent distribution of lower-tropospheric vorticity associated with TBV is consistent with changes in total TCF during P2, while a dipole correlation pattern between TBV-associated factors and TCF during P1 and P3 leads to a weak correlation between TBV and WNP TCF. These three distinct observed decadal regimes may be associated with interactions between ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on decadal timescales.


2008 ◽  
Vol 65 (8) ◽  
pp. 2691-2704 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anantha Aiyyer ◽  
John Molinari

Abstract The role of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) in modulating the frequency and location of tropical cyclogenesis over the eastern Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico during August–September 1998 is examined. During the nonconvective phase of the MJO, convection and low-level cyclonic vorticity occurred primarily in conjunction with the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). During the convective phase, convection, low-level cyclonic vorticity, and convergence expanded into the northeastern Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. This was accompanied by enhanced eddy kinetic energy and barotropic energy conversions as compared to the nonconvective phase, consistent with previous research. During the nonconvective phase of the MJO, vertical shear was relatively weaker but tropical cyclones tended to form mainly within the ITCZ. On the contrary, during the convective phase, vertical wind shear exceeded 10 m s−1 over much of this region and tropical cyclone development occurred north of the ITCZ, near the Mexican Pacific coast and the Gulf of Mexico. Idealized numerical experiments are conducted using a barotropic model with time-invariant basic states representative of the nonconvective and convective phases of the MJO. The simulations indicate that the propagation paths as well as the amplification of the eddies differ substantially between the two phases. During the nonconvective phase, the waves tend to propagate westward into the eastern Pacific. During the convective phase, stronger southerlies steer the waves into the Gulf of Mexico. The MJO-related modulation of tropical cyclogenesis in the eastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico thus appears to involve anomalous convergence, cyclonic vorticity, vertical wind shear, and differing tracks of easterly waves.


2012 ◽  
Vol 93 (12) ◽  
pp. 1901-1912 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian Tang ◽  
Kerry Emanuel

An important environmental control of both tropical cyclone intensity and genesis is vertical wind shear. One hypothesized pathway by which vertical shear affects tropical cyclones is midlevel ventilation—or the flux of low-entropy air into the center of the tropical cyclone. Based on a theoretical framework, a ventilation index is introduced that is equal to the environmental vertical wind shear multiplied by the nondimensional midlevel entropy deficit divided by the potential intensity. The ventilation index has a strong influence on tropical cyclone climatology. Tropical cyclogenesis preferentially occurs when and where the ventilation index is anomalously low. Both the ventilation index and the tropical cyclone's normalized intensity, or the intensity divided by the potential intensity, constrain the distribution of tropical cyclone intensification. The most rapidly intensifying storms are characterized by low ventilation indices and intermediate normalized intensities, while the most rapidly weakening storms are characterized by high ventilation indices and high normalized intensities. Since the ventilation index can be derived from large-scale fields, it can serve as a simple and useful metric for operational forecasts of tropical cyclones and diagnosis of model errors.


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