scholarly journals Observations of Hail–Wind Ratios from Convective Storm Reports across the Continental United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 635-656 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew J. Bunkers ◽  
Steven R. Fleegel ◽  
Thomas Grafenauer ◽  
Chauncy J. Schultz ◽  
Philip N. Schumacher
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Late Summer ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Convective Storm ◽  
Convective Storms ◽  
Warm Summer ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analyses ◽  
Convective Mode

Abstract The objective of this study is to provide guidance on when hail and/or wind is climatologically most likely (temporally and spatially) based on the ratio of severe hail reports to severe wind reports, which can be used by National Weather Forecast (NWS) forecasters when issuing severe convective warnings. Accordingly, a climatology of reported hail-to-wind ratios (i.e., number of hail reports divided by the number of wind reports) for observed severe convective storms was derived using U.S. storm reports from 1955 to 2017. Owing to several temporal changes in reporting and warning procedures, the 1996–2017 period was chosen for spatiotemporal analyses, yielding 265 691 hail and 294 449 wind reports. The most notable changes in hail–wind ratios occurred around 1996 as the NWS modernized and deployed new radars (leading to more hail reports relative to wind) and in 2010 when the severe hail criterion increased nationwide (leading to more wind reports relative to hail). One key finding is that hail–wind ratios are maximized (i.e., relatively more hail than wind) during the late morning through midafternoon and in the spring (March–May), with geographical maxima over the central United States and complex/elevated terrain. Otherwise, minimum ratios occur overnight, during the late summer (July–August) as well as November–December, and over the eastern United States. While the results reflect reporting biases (e.g., fewer wind than hail reports in low-population areas but more wind reports where mesonets are available), meteorological factors such as convective mode and cool spring versus warm summer environments also appear associated with the hail–wind ratio climatology.

scholarly journals Future Changes in Hail Occurrence in the United States Determined through Convection-Permitting Dynamical Downscaling

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (17) ◽  
pp. 5493-5509 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Trapp ◽  
Kimberly A. Hoogewind ◽  
Sonia Lasher-Trapp
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
The United States ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Environmental Support ◽  
Convective Storms ◽  
Four Seasons ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Storm Frequency

AbstractThe effect of anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations on the frequency and intensity of hail depends on a range of physical processes and scales. These include the environmental support of the hail-generating convective storms and the frequency of their initiation, the storm volume over which hail growth is promoted, and the depth of the lower atmosphere conducive to melting. Here, we use high-resolution (convection permitting) dynamical downscaling to simultaneously account for these effects. We find broad geographical areas of increases in the frequency of large hail (≳35-mm diameter) over the United States, during all four seasons. Increases in very large hail (≳50-mm diameter) are mostly confined to the central United States, during boreal spring and summer. And, although increases in moderate hail (≳20-mm diameter) are also found throughout the year, decreases occur over much of the eastern United States in summer. Such decreases result from a projected decrease in convective-storm frequency. Overall, these results suggest that the annual U.S. hail season may begin earlier in the year, be lengthened by more than a week, and exhibit more interannual variability in the future.

An Observational Examination of Long-Lived Supercells. Part I: Characteristics, Evolution, and Demise

2006 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 673-688 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew J. Bunkers ◽  
Mark R. Hjelmfelt ◽  
Paul L. Smith
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
North Central ◽  
The North ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Bow Echo ◽  
Primary Focus ◽  
Convective Mode

Abstract Observations of supercells and their longevity across the central and eastern United States are examined, with the primary focus on understanding the properties of long-lived supercells (defined as supercells lasting ≥4 h). A total of 224 long-lived supercells, occurring in 184 separate events, are investigated. These properties are compared with those of short-lived supercells (lifetimes ≤2 h) to determine the salient differences between the two classifications. A key finding is that long-lived supercells are considerably more isolated and discrete than short-lived supercells; as a result, the demise of a long-lived supercell (i.e., the end of the supercell phase) is often signaled by a weakening of the storm’s circulation and/or a rapid dissipation of the thunderstorm. In contrast, short-lived supercells commonly experience a demise linked to storm mergers and convective transitions (e.g., evolution to a bow echo). Also noteworthy, 36% of the long-lived supercell events were associated with strong or violent tornadoes (F2–F5), compared with only 8% for the short-lived supercell events. Evolutionary characteristics of long-lived supercells vary geographically across the United States, with the largest contrasts between the north-central United States and the Southeast. For example, 86% of the long-lived supercells across the north-central United States were isolated for most of their lifetime, whereas only 35% of those in the Southeast displayed this characteristic. Not surprisingly, the convective mode was discrete for 70% of the long-lived supercell events across the north-central United States, compared with 39% for the Southeast.

Evaluation of Intensity Prediction Equations (IPEs) for Small-Magnitude Earthquakes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ganyu Teng ◽  
Jack W. Baker ◽  
David J. Wald
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Ground Truth ◽  
Site Amplification ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Prediction Equations ◽  
Small Magnitude ◽  
Intensity Prediction ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Hazard Disaggregation

Abstract This study assesses existing intensity prediction equations (IPEs) for small unspecified magnitude (M ≤3.5) earthquakes at short hypocentral distances (Dh) and explores such earthquakes’ contribution to the felt shaking hazard. In particular, we consider IPEs by Atkinson and Wald (2007) and Atkinson et al. (2014), and evaluate their performance based on “Did You Feel It” (DYFI) reports and recorded peak ground velocities (PGVs) in the central United States. Both IPEs were developed based on DYFI reports in the central and eastern United States with moment magnitudes above Mw 3.0. DYFI reports are often used as the ground truth when evaluating and developing IPEs, but they could be less reliable when there are limited responses for small-magnitude earthquakes. We first compare the DYFI reports with intensities interpolated from recorded PGVs. Results suggest a minimal discrepancy between the two when the intensity is large enough to be felt (i.e., M >2 and Dh<15  km). We then compare intensities from 31,617 DYFI reports of 3049 earthquakes with the two IPEs. Results suggest that both the IPEs match well with observed intensities for 2.0< M <3.0 and Dh<10  km, but the IPE by Atkinson et al. (2014) matches better for larger distances. We also observe that intensities from DYFI reports attenuate faster compared with the two IPEs, especially for distances greater than 10 km. We then group DYFI reports by inferred VS30 as a proxy for site amplification effects. We observe that intensities at sites with VS30 around 300 m/s are consistently higher than at sites with VS30 around 700 m/s and are also closer to the two IPEs. Finally, we conduct hazard disaggregation for earthquakes at close distances (Dh=7.5  km) using the observed records. Results suggest that earthquakes with magnitudes below M 3.0 contribute more than 40% to the occurrence of felt shaking.

scholarly journals Virulence of Puccinia triticina on Wheat in the United States in 1999

Plant Disease ◽  
2002 ◽  
Vol 86 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. L. Long ◽  
K. J. Leonard ◽  
M. E. Hughes
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Gulf Coast ◽  
Puccinia Triticina ◽  
Leaf Rust Resistance ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
The United States ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Ohio Valley ◽  
Central United States

Isolates of Puccinia triticina were obtained from wheat leaf collections made by cooperators throughout the United States and from surveys of wheat fields and nurseries in the Great Plains, Ohio Valley, and Gulf Coast states in 1999. Pathogenic races were determined from virulence/avirulence phenotypes on 14 host lines that are near-isogenic for leaf rust resistance. We found 58 races among 1,180 isolates in 1999. As in previous surveys, regional race distribution patterns showed that the central United States is a single epidemiological unit distinct from the eastern United States. The distinctive racial composition of collections from the Southeast, Northeast, and Ohio Valley indicates that populations of P. triticina in those areas are not closely connected, suggesting epidemics originate from localized overwintering sources.

Zoogeography and taxonomy of Dirofilaria scapiceps (Leidy, 1886) and D. uniformis Price, 1957 (Nematoda: Filarioidea) of lagomorphs in North America

1983 ◽  
Vol 61 (5) ◽  
pp. 1011-1022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheryl M. Bartlett
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North America ◽  
Host Record ◽  
Sylvilagus Floridanus ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
New Host ◽  
New Host Record ◽  
South Central ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Subcutaneous Tissues

Dirofilaria scapiceps (Leidy, 1886) was found in 62% of 404 Lepus americanus, 27% of 89 Sylvilagus floridanus, 13% of 31 Orytolagus cuniculus (domestic), 4% of 26 L. capensis, and none of 15 L. timidus, 2 L. californicus, and 50 L. townsendii collected in various regions of North America. Dirofilaria scapiceps in L. capensis is a new host record. The two species of Dirofilaria, D. scapiceps and D. uniformis Price, 1957, known from lagomorphs are redescribed. Dirofilaria scapiceps occurs predominantly in connective tissue surrounding tendons in the ankle region and rarely in intermuscular fascia near the knee joint of the hind leg; D. uniformis occurs in subcutaneous tissues of the trunk. Both D. scapiceps and D. uniformis are known only from lagomorphs in North America, D. scapiceps from L. americanus, L. capensis, S. floridanus, S. palustris and O. cuniculus and D. uniformis from S. floridanus, S. palustris and O. cuniculus. Dirofilaria scapiceps is present in lagomorphs in Alaska, Canada, eastern United States and Wyoming whereas D. uniformis is known only from lagomorphs in southeastern and south central United States. Dirofilaria uniformis may have evolved, through paedomorphosis, from D. scapiceps.

scholarly journals EPIDEMIOLOGY OF EQUINE ENCEPHALOMYELITIS IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES

1935 ◽  
Vol 62 (5) ◽  
pp. 677-685 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl Tenbroeck ◽  
E. Weston Hurst ◽  
Erich Traub
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Salt Marshes ◽  
Late Summer ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Short Time

Equine encephalomyelitis of the eastern type is a disease of the late summer and fall and cases are found in greatest numbers near salt marshes. The epidemiological findings are against its transmission by contact and favor the view that it is insect borne. Although virus can be demonstrated in the blood of infected horses it is present for a relatively short time, and the possibility that the disease is not primarily an infection of horses but that it is transmitted to them from another host is considered.

The Precipitation Response over the Continental United States to Cold Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (13) ◽  
pp. 5036-5055 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hailan Wang ◽  
Siegfried Schubert
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
The United States ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
North Atlantic Subtropical High ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies

The dominant pattern of SST variability in the Pacific during its cold phase produces pronounced precipitation deficits over the continental United States throughout the annual cycle. This study investigates the observed physical and dynamical processes through which the cold Pacific pattern affects U.S. precipitation, particularly the causes for the peak dry impacts in fall, as well as the nature of the differences between the summer and fall responses. Results show that the peak precipitation deficit over the United States during fall is primarily due to reduced atmospheric moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico into the central and eastern United States and secondarily a reduction in local evaporation from land–atmosphere feedback. The former is associated with a strong and systematic low-level northeasterly flow anomaly over the southeastern United States that counteracts the northwest branch of the climatological North Atlantic subtropical high. The above northeasterly anomaly is maintained by both diabatic heating anomalies in the nearby intra-American seas and diabatic cooling anomalies in the tropical Pacific. In contrast, the modest summertime precipitation deficit over the central United States is mainly an intensification of the local dry anomaly in the preceding spring from local land–atmosphere feedback; the rather weak and disorganized atmospheric circulation anomalies over and to the south of the United States make little contribution. An evaluation of the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) AGCM simulations shows it to be deficient in simulating the warm season tropical convection responses over the intra-American seas to the cold Pacific pattern and thereby the precipitation responses over the United States, a problem that appears to be common to many AGCMs.

scholarly journals Warm Season Response over North America to a Shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and CO2 Increases

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (19) ◽  
pp. 6701-6720 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bing Pu ◽  
Edward K. Vizy ◽  
Kerry H. Cook
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
The North ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Moisture Fluxes ◽  
Meridional Overturning

Abstract Paleo-proxy and modeling evidence suggest that a shutdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) would decrease North Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures and have far-reaching climate impacts. The authors use a regional climate model to examine the warm season response over North America to a hypothetical late-twenty-first-century shutdown of the AMOC with increased atmospheric CO2. In the future simulation, precipitation decreases over the western and central United States by up to 40% and over eastern Mexico by up to 50%. Over the eastern United States rainfall generally increases except during July. Variations in the moisture convergence associated with large-scale circulation changes dominate the rainfall variations, while evaporation plays a critical role over the northeastern United States in spring and the north-central United States in summer. During April–June the westward extension of the North Atlantic subtropical high enhances southwesterly moisture fluxes from the Gulf of Mexico into the eastern and south-central United States. Increases in low-level moisture content reduce the stability of the atmosphere. Enhanced southerly winds promote convergence over the eastern United States through the Sverdrup vorticity balance and precipitation increases. In July–August anomalous anticyclonic moisture fluxes associated with an anomalous high over the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Pacific decrease the moisture supply into the United States and Mexico. Over the central United States decreases in evaporation support decreases in low-level moisture content and increases in atmospheric stability. Over the eastern United States the Sverdrup balance weakens in summer and anomalous moisture convergence is mainly located over the East Coast.

scholarly journals Virulence of Puccinia triticina on Wheat in the United States from 1996 to 1998

Plant Disease ◽  
2000 ◽  
Vol 84 (12) ◽  
pp. 1334-1341 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. L. Long ◽  
K. J. Leonard ◽  
M. E. Hughes
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Gulf Coast ◽  
Puccinia Triticina ◽  
Leaf Rust Resistance ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
The United States ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Ohio Valley ◽  
Central United States

Isolates of Puccinia triticina were obtained from wheat leaf collections made by cooperators throughout the United States and from surveys of wheat fields and nurseries in the Great Plains, Ohio Valley, and Gulf Coast states in 1996, 1997, and 1998. Virulence-avirulence phenotypes were determined on 14 host lines that are near-isogenic for leaf rust resistance. We found 31 phenotypes among 277 single uredinial isolates in 1996, 56 phenotypes among 989 isolates in 1997, and 43 phenotypes among 989 isolates in 1998. As in previous surveys, regional race distribution patterns showed that the central United States is a single epidemiological unit distinct from the eastern United States. The distinctive racial composition of collections from the southeast, northeast, and Ohio Valley indicate that populations of P. triticina in those areas are not closely connected, suggesting that epidemics originate from localized overwintering sources.

Impacts of Forecaster Involvement on Convective Storm Initiation and Evolution Nowcasting

2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 1061-1089 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rita D. Roberts ◽  
Amanda R. S. Anderson ◽  
Eric Nelson ◽  
Barbara G. Brown ◽  
James W. Wilson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Convective Storm ◽  
Convective Storms ◽  
Service Unit ◽  
Critical Success ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Categorical Verification ◽  
Weather Service

Abstract A forecaster-interactive capability was added to an automated convective storm nowcasting system [Auto-Nowcaster (ANC)] to allow forecasters to enhance the performance of 1-h nowcasts of convective storm initiation and evolution produced every 6 min. This Forecaster-Over-The-Loop (FOTL-ANC) system was tested at the National Weather Service Fort Worth–Dallas, Texas, Weather Forecast Office during daily operations from 2005 to 2010. The forecaster’s role was to enter the locations of surface convergence boundaries into the ANC prior to dissemination of nowcasts to the Center Weather Service Unit. Verification of the FOTL-ANC versus ANC (no human) nowcasts was conducted on the convective scale. Categorical verification scores were computed for 30 subdomains within the forecast domain. Special focus was placed on subdomains that included convergence boundaries for evaluation of forecaster involvement and impact on the FOTL-ANC nowcasts. The probability of detection of convective storms increased by 20%–60% with little to no change observed in the false-alarm ratios. Bias values increased from 0.8–1.0 to 1.0–3.0 with human involvement. The accuracy of storm nowcasts notably improved with forecaster involvement; critical success index (CSI) values increased from 0.15–0.25 (ANC) to 0.2–0.4 (FOTL-ANC). Over short time periods, CSI values as large as 0.6 were also observed. This study demonstrated definitively that forecaster involvement led to positive improvement in the nowcasts in most cases while causing no degradation in other cases; a few exceptions are noted. Results show that forecasters can play an important role in the production of rapidly updated, convective storm nowcasts for end users.

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