Biases in the Prediction of Convective Storm Characteristics with a Convection Allowing Ensemble

The severity, duration, and spatial extent of thunderstorm impacts is related to convective storm mode. This study assesses the skill of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRR-E) and its deterministic counterpart (HRRRv4) at predicting convective mode and storm macrophysical properties using 35 convective events observed during the 2020 warm season across the eastern U.S. Seven cases were selected from each of five subjectively-determined convective organization modes: tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), quasi-linear convective systems, clusters, and cellular convection. These storm events were assessed using an object-based approach to identify convective storms and determine their individual size. Averaged across all 35 cases, both the HRRR-E and HRRRv4 predicted storm areas were generally larger than observed, with this bias being a function of storm lifetime and convective mode. Both modeling systems also under-predicted the rapid increase in storm counts during the initiation period, particularly for the smaller-scale storm modes. Interestingly, performance of the HRRRv4 differed from that of the HRRR-E, with the HRRRv4 generally having a larger bias in total storm area than the HRRR-E due to HRRRv4 predicting up to 66% more storm objects than the HRRR-E. The HRRR-E accurately predicted the convective mode 65% of the time, with complete misses being very rare (<5% of the time overall). However, an evaluation of rank histograms across all 35 cases revealed that the HRRR-E tended to be under-dispersive when predicting storm size for all but the MCS mode.

Seismic design of liquid-containing concrete structures

The seismic design of structures is a requirement for any places [sic] where earthquake [sic] occurs, and the design is based upon the codes that vary according to the jurisdictions in which the code was developed for. This study introduces and assesses the document ACI 350.3-06 which was developed by the ACI Committee to guide the design of liquid containing structures, and compares to other codes such as ACI 350.3-01 and NZS 3106 of New Zealand Standard. The importance of liquid containing structures cannot be stressed further, as it is apparent in nuclear applications. The failure of tanks could be due to many reasons: 1) Shell buckling, caused by axial compression due to overall bending. 2) Roof damage as a result of sloshing of the upper portion of the containing liquid due to insufficient provision of freeboard. 3) Failure of inlets and outlets due to their inability to accommodate the deformations of the flexible tank. 4) Differential settlement or failure of supporting soil. The pressures resulted from earthquake [sic] can cause catastrophic disaster, and they [sic] are the impulsive and convective mode which exerts pressures on the walls of the tank. The hydrodynamic model used to estimate these pressures in the ACI 350.3-06 document has also adopted earlier works from Housner, Veletsos, and Shivakumar. Throughout the years, the code has transformed tremendously, and this study shows that the codes are very similar in many ways, yet their differences can yield significantly different results. Furthermore, the results from the various codes are illustrated using the same example, and the validity of the results are determined as well. The effects on seismic design due to the types of structure, whether the tank is rigid or flexible, and the support system are also introduced; moreover, their absences and the variations in the estimation of seismic parameters in some codes are also shown to have a large effect on the load estimation.

Seismic design of liquid-containing concrete structures

The seismic design of structures is a requirement for any places [sic] where earthquake [sic] occurs, and the design is based upon the codes that vary according to the jurisdictions in which the code was developed for. This study introduces and assesses the document ACI 350.3-06 which was developed by the ACI Committee to guide the design of liquid containing structures, and compares to other codes such as ACI 350.3-01 and NZS 3106 of New Zealand Standard. The importance of liquid containing structures cannot be stressed further, as it is apparent in nuclear applications. The failure of tanks could be due to many reasons: 1) Shell buckling, caused by axial compression due to overall bending. 2) Roof damage as a result of sloshing of the upper portion of the containing liquid due to insufficient provision of freeboard. 3) Failure of inlets and outlets due to their inability to accommodate the deformations of the flexible tank. 4) Differential settlement or failure of supporting soil. The pressures resulted from earthquake [sic] can cause catastrophic disaster, and they [sic] are the impulsive and convective mode which exerts pressures on the walls of the tank. The hydrodynamic model used to estimate these pressures in the ACI 350.3-06 document has also adopted earlier works from Housner, Veletsos, and Shivakumar. Throughout the years, the code has transformed tremendously, and this study shows that the codes are very similar in many ways, yet their differences can yield significantly different results. Furthermore, the results from the various codes are illustrated using the same example, and the validity of the results are determined as well. The effects on seismic design due to the types of structure, whether the tank is rigid or flexible, and the support system are also introduced; moreover, their absences and the variations in the estimation of seismic parameters in some codes are also shown to have a large effect on the load estimation.

Computational analysis of convective heat transfer across a vertical tube

This paper deals with the numerical investigation of the convective mode of heat transfer across a vertical tube. Experiments were carried out using air as a fluid in a closed room by achieving a steady-state condition. Implicit scheme of finite difference method was adopted to numerically simulate the free convection phenomenon across vertical tube using LINUX based UBUNTU package. Numerical data were collected in the form of velocity, temperature profiles, boundary layer thickness, Nusselt number (Nu), Rayleigh's number (Ra), and heat transfer coefficient. The results of the Nusselt number showed a good agreement with the previous studies. Results data of heat transfer coefficient indicate that there were some minor heat losses due to radiation of brass tube and curvature of the tube.

Severe Convective Windstorms in Europe: Climatology, Preconvective Environments, and Convective Mode

The frequency of European convective windstorms, environments in which they form, and their convective organizational modes remain largely unknown. A climatology is produced using 10 233 severe convective-wind reports from the European Severe Weather Database between 2009–2018. Severe convective-wind days have increased from 50 days yr–1 in 2009 to 117 days yr–1 in 2018, largely because of an increase in reporting. The highest frequency of reports occurred across central Europe, particularly Poland. Reporting was most frequent in summer, when a severe convective windstorm occurred every other day on average. The preconvective environment was assessed using 361 proximity soundings from 45 stations between 2006–2018, and a clustering technique was used to distinguish different environments from nine variables. Two environments for severe convective storms occurred: Type 1, generally low-shear–high-CAPE (mostly in the warm season) and Type 2, generally high-shear–low-CAPE (convective available potential energy; mostly in the cold season). Because convective mode often relates to the type of weather hazard, convective organizational mode was studied from 185 windstorms that occurred between 2013–2018. In Type-1 environments, the most frequent convective mode was cells, accounting for 58.5% of events, followed by linear modes (29%) and the nonlinear noncellular mode (12.5%). In Type-2 environments, the most frequent convective mode was linear modes (55%), followed by cells (36%) and the nonlinear noncellular mode (9%). Only 10% of windstorms were associated with bow echoes, a much lower percentage than other studies, suggesting that forecasters should not necessarily wait to see a bow echo before issuing a warning for strong winds.

Observations of Hail–Wind Ratios from Convective Storm Reports across the Continental United States

The objective of this study is to provide guidance on when hail and/or wind is climatologically most likely (temporally and spatially) based on the ratio of severe hail reports to severe wind reports, which can be used by National Weather Forecast (NWS) forecasters when issuing severe convective warnings. Accordingly, a climatology of reported hail-to-wind ratios (i.e., number of hail reports divided by the number of wind reports) for observed severe convective storms was derived using U.S. storm reports from 1955 to 2017. Owing to several temporal changes in reporting and warning procedures, the 1996–2017 period was chosen for spatiotemporal analyses, yielding 265 691 hail and 294 449 wind reports. The most notable changes in hail–wind ratios occurred around 1996 as the NWS modernized and deployed new radars (leading to more hail reports relative to wind) and in 2010 when the severe hail criterion increased nationwide (leading to more wind reports relative to hail). One key finding is that hail–wind ratios are maximized (i.e., relatively more hail than wind) during the late morning through midafternoon and in the spring (March–May), with geographical maxima over the central United States and complex/elevated terrain. Otherwise, minimum ratios occur overnight, during the late summer (July–August) as well as November–December, and over the eastern United States. While the results reflect reporting biases (e.g., fewer wind than hail reports in low-population areas but more wind reports where mesonets are available), meteorological factors such as convective mode and cool spring versus warm summer environments also appear associated with the hail–wind ratio climatology.

Medium-Range Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts with a Variable-Resolution Global Model

Two sets of global, 132-h (5.5-day), 10-member ensemble forecasts were produced with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) for 35 cases in April and May 2017. One MPAS ensemble had a quasi-uniform 15-km mesh while the other employed a variable-resolution mesh with 3-km cell spacing over the conterminous United States (CONUS) that smoothly relaxed to 15 km over the rest of the globe. Precipitation forecasts from both MPAS ensembles were objectively verified over the central and eastern CONUS to assess the potential benefits of configuring MPAS with a 3-km mesh refinement region for medium-range forecasts. In addition, forecasts from NCEP’s operational Global Ensemble Forecast System were evaluated and served as a baseline against which to compare the experimental MPAS ensembles. The 3-km MPAS ensemble most faithfully reproduced the observed diurnal cycle of precipitation throughout the 132-h forecasts and had superior precipitation skill and reliability over the first 48 h. However, after 48 h, the three ensembles had more similar spread, reliability, and skill, and differences between probabilistic precipitation forecasts derived from the 3- and 15-km MPAS ensembles were typically statistically insignificant. Nonetheless, despite fewer benefits of increased resolution for spatial placement after 48 h, 3-km ensemble members explicitly provided potentially valuable guidance regarding convective mode throughout the 132-h forecasts while the other ensembles did not. Collectively, these results suggest both strengths and limitations of medium-range high-resolution ensemble forecasts and reveal pathways for future investigations to improve understanding of high-resolution global ensembles with variable-resolution meshes.