scholarly journals Bias Correction, Anonymization, and Analysis of Smartphone Pressure Observations Using Machine Learning and Multi-Resolution Kriging

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Callie McNicholas ◽  
Clifford F. Mass
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Surface Pressure ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Pressure Sensors ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Technical Issues ◽  
High Impact Weather

AbstractWith over a billion smartphones capable of measuring atmospheric pressure, a global mesoscale surface pressure network based on smartphone pressure sensors may be possible if key technical issues are solved, including collection technology, privacy and bias correction. To overcome these challenges, a novel framework was developed for the anonymization and bias correction of smartphone pressure observations (SPOs) and was applied to billions of SPOs from The Weather Company (IBM). Bias correction using machine learning reduced the errors of anonymous (ANON) SPOs and uniquely identifiable (UID) SPOs by 43% and 57%, respectively. Applying multi-resolution kriging, gridded analyses of bias-corrected smartphone pressure observations were made for an entire year (2018), using both anonymized (ANON) and non-anonymized (UID) observations. Pressure analyses were also generated using conventional (MADIS) surface pressure networks. Relative to MADIS analyses, ANON and UID smartphone analyses reduced domain-average pressure errors by 21% and 31%. The performance of smartphone and MADIS pressure analyses was evaluated for two high-impact weather events: the landfall of Hurricane Michael and a long-lived mesoscale convective system. For these two events, both anonymized and non-anonymized smartphone pressure analyses better captured the spatial structure and temporal evolution of mesoscale pressure features than the MADIS analyses.

scholarly journals Identifikasi Fenomena Mesoscale Convective System (MCC) di Selat Karimata

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Estri Diniyati ◽  
Yosafat Donni Haryanto
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Equatorial Region ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Physical Conditions ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Extreme Rain ◽  
Cloud Top Temperature ◽  
Cloud Core

Abstract—Indonesia located in the equatorial region which has potential to have a major impact on atmospheric physical conditions during extreme weather events such as the Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCC). MCC is a phenomenon that was first discovered by (Maddox, 1980) where this phenomenon is characterized by the presence of a quasi-circular (almost circular) cloud shield with an eccentricity of 0.7 with a cloud cover area of 100,000 km², the cloud core area covers 50,000 km² and cloud top temperature IR1 -52 ℃. These cloud conditions last for a minimum of 6 hours and cause severe weather and extreme rain. This study aims to identify the MCC phenomenon in the Karimata Strait on 19-20 September 2020 which caused heavy rains in parts of the West coast of Kalimantan and Bangka Island using Himawari-8 Satellite imagery data and the MATLAB application. The results showed that on September 19, MCC was identified at 09.00-19.00 UTC, then on September 20, MCC was identified at 16.00-23.00 UTC. At the time of the MCC event, Bangka and Pontianak regions experienced extreme rains recorded on AWS Digi Stamet Pontianak with rainfall reaching 43.4 mm/hour and ARG Lubuk Besar Bangka Tengah with rainfall reaching 16.8 mm/hour. Keywords: mesoscale convective complex (MCC), himawari-8, MATLAB Abstrak—Indonesia merupakan negara yang terletak diwilayah ekuator dimana berpotensi memiliki dampak besar terhadap kondisi fisik atmosfer saat terjadi cuaca ekstrem seperti Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCC). MCC merupakan fenomena yang pertama kali ditemukan oleh (Maddox, 1980) dimana fenomena ini dicirikan dengan adanya perisai awan yang berbentuk quasi circular (hampir lingkaran) dengan eksentrisitas ≥ 0,7 dengan luas area selimut awan ≥ 100.000 km² , luas area inti awan mencakup ≥ 50.000 km² serta suhu puncak awan IR1 ≤ -52 ℃. Kondisi awan tersebut bertahan minimun selama 6 jam dan menyebabkan cuaca buruk dan hujan ekstrem. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi fenomena MCC di Selat Karimata pada Tanggal 19-20 September 2020 yang menyebabkan hujan lebat di sebagian wilayah Kalimantan bagian pesisir Barat dan Pulau Bangka menggunakan data citra Satelit Himawari-8 dan aplikasi MATLAB. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan pada tanggal 19 September, MCC teridentifikasi pada pukul 09.00-19.00 UTC selanjutnya tanggal 20 September 2020 MCC teridentifikasi pada pukul 16.00-23.00 UTC. Pada saat peristiwa MCC, wilayah Bangka dan Pontianak mengalami hujan ekstrem yang tercatat pada AWS Digi Stasiun Meteorologi Pontianak dengan curah hujan mencapai 43,4 mm/jam dan ARG Lubuk Besar Bangka Tengah dengan curah hujan mencapai 16,8 mm/jam. Kata kunci: mesoscale convective complex (MCC), himawari-8, MATLAB

scholarly journals Genesis of Hurricane Julia (2010) within an African Easterly Wave: Developing and Nondeveloping Members from WRF–LETKF Ensemble Forecasts

2014 ◽  
Vol 71 (7) ◽  
pp. 2763-2781 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan F. Cecelski ◽  
Da-Lin Zhang ◽  
Takemasa Miyoshi
Keyword(s):  
Surface Pressure ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
African Easterly Wave ◽  
Easterly Wave ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Rossby Radius Of Deformation ◽  
Faster Development

Abstract In this study, the predictability of and parametric differences in the genesis of Hurricane Julia (2010) are investigated using 20 mesoscale ensemble forecasts with the finest resolution of 1 km. Results show that the genesis of Julia is highly predictable, with all but two members undergoing genesis. Despite the high predictability, substantial parametric differences exist between the stronger and weaker members. Notably, the strongest-developing member exhibits large upper-tropospheric warming within a storm-scale outflow during genesis. In contrast, the nondeveloping member has weak and more localized warming due to inhibited convective development and a lack of a storm-scale outflow. A reduction in the Rossby radius of deformation in the strongest member aids in the accumulation of the warmth, while little contraction takes place in the nondeveloping member. The warming in the upper troposphere is responsible for the development of meso-α-scale surface pressure falls and a meso-β surface low in the strongest-developing member. Such features fail to form in the nondeveloping member as weak upper-tropospheric warming is unable to induce meaningful surface pressure falls. Cloud ice content is nearly doubled in the strongest member as compared to its nondeveloping counterparts, suggesting the importance of depositional heating of the upper troposphere. It is found that the stronger member undergoes genesis faster due to the lack of convective inhibition near the African easterly wave (AEW) pouch center prior to genesis. This allows for the faster development of a mesoscale convective system and storm-scale outflow, given the already favorable larger-scale conditions.

scholarly journals Mesoscale convective system surface pressure anomalies responsible for meteotsunamis along the U.S. East Coast on June 13th, 2013

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christina A. Wertman ◽  
Richard M. Yablonsky ◽  
Yang Shen ◽  
John Merrill ◽  
Christopher R. Kincaid ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Pressure ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
The U.S

scholarly journals A Case Study of the Interaction of a Mesoscale Gravity Wave with a Mesoscale Convective System

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (4) ◽  
pp. 1403-1429 ◽  
Author(s):  
James H. Ruppert ◽  
Lance F. Bosart
Keyword(s):  
Solitary Wave ◽  
Gravity Wave ◽  
Surface Pressure ◽  
Cold Front ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
High Amplitude ◽  
Squall Line ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Density Currents ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

Abstract This study documents the high-amplitude mesoscale gravity wave (MGW) event of 7 March 2008 in which two MGWs strongly impacted the sensible weather over a large portion of the Southeast United States. These MGWs exhibited starkly contrasting character despite propagating within similar environments. The primary (i.e., long lived) MGW was manifest by a solitary wave of depression associated with rapid sinking motion and adiabatic warming, while the secondary (short lived) MGW was manifest by a solitary wave of elevation (“MGWEL”), dominated by rising motion and moist adiabatic cooling. Genesis of the primary MGW occurred as a strong cold front arrived at the foot of Mexico’s high terrain and perturbed the appreciable overriding flow. The resulting gravity wave became ducted in the presence of a low-level frontal stable layer, and caused surface pressure falls up to ~4 hPa. The MGW later amplified as it became coupled with a stratiform precipitation system, which led to its evolution into an intense mesohigh–wake low couplet. This couplet propagated as a ducted MGW attached to a stratiform system for ~12 h thereafter, and induced rapid surface pressure falls of ≥10 hPa (including a fall of 6.7 hPa in 10 min), rapid wind vector changes (e.g., 17 m s−1 in 25 min), and high wind gusts (e.g., 20 m s−1) across several states. MGWEL appeared within the remnants of a squall line, and was manifest by a sharp pressure ridge of ~6 hPa with a narrow embedded rainband following the motion of a surface cold front. MGWEL bore resemblance to previously documented gravity waves formed by density currents propagating through stable environments.

Ensemble Probabilistic Prediction of a Mesoscale Convective System and Associated Polarimetric Radar Variables Using Single-Moment and Double-Moment Microphysics Schemes and EnKF Radar Data Assimilation

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (6) ◽  
pp. 2257-2279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryan J. Putnam ◽  
Ming Xue ◽  
Youngsun Jung ◽  
Nathan A. Snook ◽  
Guifu Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Verification Methods ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Single Moment ◽  
Double Moment

Abstract Ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts are performed for a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that occurred over Oklahoma on 8–9 May 2007, initialized from ensemble Kalman filter analyses using multinetwork radar data and different microphysics schemes. Two experiments are conducted, using either a single-moment or double-moment microphysics scheme during the 1-h-long assimilation period and in subsequent 3-h ensemble forecasts. Qualitative and quantitative verifications are performed on the ensemble forecasts, including probabilistic skill scores. The predicted dual-polarization (dual-pol) radar variables and their probabilistic forecasts are also evaluated against available dual-pol radar observations, and discussed in relation to predicted microphysical states and structures. Evaluation of predicted reflectivity (Z) fields shows that the double-moment ensemble predicts the precipitation coverage of the leading convective line and stratiform precipitation regions of the MCS with higher probabilities throughout the forecast period compared to the single-moment ensemble. In terms of the simulated differential reflectivity (ZDR) and specific differential phase (KDP) fields, the double-moment ensemble compares more realistically to the observations and better distinguishes the stratiform and convective precipitation regions. The ZDR from individual ensemble members indicates better raindrop size sorting along the leading convective line in the double-moment ensemble. Various commonly used ensemble forecast verification methods are examined for the prediction of dual-pol variables. The results demonstrate the challenges associated with verifying predicted dual-pol fields that can vary significantly in value over small distances. Several microphysics biases are noted with the help of simulated dual-pol variables, such as substantial overprediction of KDP values in the single-moment ensemble.

scholarly journals Comprehensive Analysis of a Coast Thunderstorm That Produced a Sprite over the Bohai Sea

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 718
Author(s):  
Cong Pan ◽  
Jing Yang ◽  
Kun Liu ◽  
Yu Wang
Keyword(s):  
Bohai Sea ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Return Stroke ◽  
Absolute Value ◽  
Transient Luminous Events ◽  
Stratiform Region ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Cloud To Ground Lightning

Sprites are transient luminous events (TLEs) that occur over thunderstorm clouds that represent the direct coupling relationship between the troposphere and the upper atmosphere. We report the evolution of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that produced only one sprite event, and the characteristics of this thunderstorm and the related lightning activity are analyzed in detail. The results show that the parent flash of the sprite was positive cloud-to-ground lightning (+CG) with a single return stroke, which was located in the trailing stratiform region of the MCS with a radar reflectivity of 25 to 35 dBZ. The absolute value of the negative CG (−CG) peak current for half an hour before and after the occurrence of the sprite was less than 50 kA, which was not enough to produce the sprite. Sprites tend to be produced early in the maturity-to-dissipation stage of the MCS, with an increasing percentage of +CG to total CG (POP), indicating that the sprite production was the attenuation of the thunderstorm and the area of the stratiform region.

scholarly journals Evaluating Smartphone Pressure Observations for Mesoscale Analyses and Forecasts

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 511-531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luke E. Madaus ◽  
Clifford F. Mass
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Active Period ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Dynamic Structures ◽  
Further Development

Abstract Smartphone pressure observations have the potential to greatly increase surface observation density on convection-resolving scales. Currently available smartphone pressure observations are tested through assimilation in a mesoscale ensemble for a 3-day, convectively active period in the eastern United States. Both raw pressure (altimeter) observations and 1-h pressure (altimeter) tendency observations are considered. The available observation density closely follows population density, but observations are also available in rural areas. The smartphone observations are found to contain significant noise, which can limit their effectiveness. The assimilated smartphone observations contribute to small improvements in 1-h forecasts of surface pressure and 10-m wind, but produce larger errors in 2-m temperature forecasts. Short-term (0–4 h) precipitation forecasts are improved when smartphone pressure and pressure tendency observations are assimilated as compared with an ensemble that assimilates no observations. However, these improvements are limited to broad, mesoscale features with minimal skill provided at convective scales using the current smartphone observation density. A specific mesoscale convective system (MCS) is examined in detail, and smartphone pressure observations captured the expected dynamic structures associated with this feature. Possibilities for further development of smartphone observations are discussed.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document