Provoking Ordinary People: The Effects of Terrorism on Civilian Violence

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 135-165
Author(s):  
Jürgen Brandsch ◽  
André Python
Keyword(s):  
Social Conflict ◽  
Violent Behavior ◽  
Conflict Analysis ◽  
Ordinary People ◽  
Perceived Security ◽  
Global Terrorism ◽  
Violence Against Civilians ◽  
Effects Of Violence ◽  
Global Terrorism Database ◽  
Terrorist Violence

Research on the effects of terrorism mostly focuses on the coercive effects of violence on the macrolevel, while other effects like provocation, particularly on the microlevel, do not receive the same attention. In this article, we seek to address previous omissions. We argue that terrorism can provoke ordinary people into a violent reaction. By reducing perceived security and creating a desire for revenge terrorism may lead civilians to attack uninvolved members of the terrorists’ constituency. Using geo-referenced data on terrorism (Global Terrorism Database) and violent riots (Social Conflict Analysis Database), we assess with a matched wake analysis if the treatment of terrorist violence against civilians causes an increase in violent behavior. The results of our analyses show that terrorism significantly increases violent riots. We thus conclude that terrorism can not only provoke governments but also civilians into an overreaction.

scholarly journals Using Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict Terrorism and Threat

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 5995-6000 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Intelligent System ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Internet Technology ◽  
Social Media Platforms ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Global Terrorism ◽  
Terrorist Event ◽  
Global Terrorism Database

It is evident that there has been enormous growth in terrorist attacks in recent years. The idea of online terrorism has also been growing its roots in the internet world. These types of activities have been growing along with the growth in internet technology. These types of events include social media threats such as hate speeches and comments provoking terror on social media platforms such as twitter, Facebook, etc. These activities must be prevented before it makes an impact. In this paper, we will make various classifiers that will group and predict various terrorism activities using k-NN algorithm and random forest algorithm. The purpose of this project is to use Global Terrorism Database as a dataset to detect terrorism. We will be using GTD which stands for Global Terrorism Database which is a publicly available database which contains information on terrorist event far and wide from 1970 through 2017 to train a machine learning-based intelligent system to predict any future events that could bring threat to the society.

scholarly journals Spring Continues To Blossom In The Valley : A Documentary Film

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anureet Anureet
Keyword(s):  
Documentary Film ◽  
Ethical Issues ◽  
Political Context ◽  
Ordinary People ◽  
Global Terrorism ◽  
Speaking For Others

This paper is written in support of my 27-minute film, Spring Continues to Blossom in the Valley, a poetic-political journey film that documents the sufferings of ordinary people in Indian-administrated Kashmir. These people have been stuck between the history and geography, crushed by both Indian army and the militants, in one of the world’s longest-running conflicts. The historical-political context is provided in the first chapter. The documentary journey is discussed concerning structure, memories and hope for life along with the ethical issues regarding speaking for others, especially filming victims and their families. This paper also focused on the silent landscapes and signs of memory. The film’s social-political pertinence is relevantly set about biased discourses, global terrorism, and Kashmir conflict.

Gender-Sensitive Conflict Analysis: A New Training Method for Practitioners

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 304-317
Author(s):  
Sophia Close ◽  
Hesta Groenewald
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Gender Norms ◽  
Conflict Analysis ◽  
Participatory Process ◽  
Training Method ◽  
International Organisations ◽  
Training Approach ◽  
Practice Based Research ◽  
Gender Groups ◽  
Effects Of Violence

The authors have co-designed and co-facilitated an innovative training method and approach to gender-sensitive conflict analysis. International organisations rarely undertake gendered conflict analysis as it is perceived to be difficult, with unclear or inconvenient actions identified. Yet the authors’ practice-based research shows it is essential to understanding and transforming the gendered root causes, discriminatory gender norms, and differentiated effects of violence and conflict. In this article, the authors share the lessons from workshops they conducted across multiple conflict-affected contexts. They detail the participatory process undertaken involving diverse gender groups from civil society and policymakers working in conflict-affected contexts and provide data on the effectiveness and sustainability of this innovative training approach.

scholarly journals Local alliances and rivalries shape near-repeat terror activity of al-Qaeda, ISIS, and insurgents

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (42) ◽  
pp. 20898-20903 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yao-Li Chuang ◽  
Noam Ben-Asher ◽  
Maria R. D’Orsogna
Keyword(s):  
Policy Making ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Al Qaeda ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Collaborative Relationship ◽  
Regional Dynamics ◽  
Global Terrorism ◽  
Near Repeat ◽  
Global Terrorism Database

We study the spatiotemporal correlation of terrorist attacks by al-Qaeda, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), and local insurgents, in six geographical areas identified via k-means clustering applied to the Global Terrorism Database. All surveyed organizations exhibit near-repeat activity whereby a prior attack increases the likelihood of a subsequent one by the same group within 20 km and on average 4 (al-Qaeda) to 10 (ISIS) weeks. Near-response activity, whereby an attack by a given organization elicits further attacks from a different one, is found to depend on the adversarial, neutral, or collaborative relationship between the two. When in conflict, local insurgents respond quickly to attacks by global terror groups while global terror groups delay their responses to local insurgents, leading to an asymmetric dynamic. When neutral or allied, attacks by one group enhance the response likelihood of the other, regardless of hierarchy. These trends arise consistently in all clusters for which data are available. Government intervention and spillover effects are also discussed; we find no evidence of outbidding. Understanding the regional dynamics of terrorism may be greatly beneficial in policy making and intervention design.

Terrorist Attacks Targeting Police, 1998–2010: Exploring Heavily Hit Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 261-278
Author(s):  
Jennifer C. Gibbs
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Common Thread ◽  
Global Terrorism ◽  
The Government ◽  
Global Terrorism Database ◽  
Scholarly Attention

With over 14% of all terrorist attacks since 1970 targeting law enforcement, terrorist attacks on police is a problem in need of scholarly attention. Police serve as symbolic targets of the government and strategic targets of terrorist attacks, yet we know little about such attacks. This article explores terrorist attacks targeting police in heavily hit countries, drawing from the Global Terrorism Database. While Iraq and India have the most terrorist attacks targeting police, these countries also have a high number of terrorist attacks against all targets. To account for the total number of terrorist attacks, proportions are explored, finding Macedonia, Russia, and Georgia have the highest proportions of terrorist attacks targeting police between 1998 and 2010. A common thread among these heavily hit countries is a rapidly changing governing regime coupled with societal schism—in other words, these countries seem to share low governmental legitimacy. Implications for future research are discussed.

Ethnicity, nonviolent protest, and lethal repression in Africa

2019 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 469-484 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cullen S Hendrix ◽  
Idean Salehyan
Keyword(s):  
Social Conflict ◽  
Conflict Analysis ◽  
Deadly Force ◽  
Threat Perception ◽  
African Politics ◽  
Mobilization Potential ◽  
The Social ◽  
Hierarchical Nature ◽  
The Government ◽  
High Salience

Why do governments use deadly force against unarmed protesters? The government’s threat perception may be a function of the mobilization potential of the opposition and/or the size of the ruling elite’s support coalition. Given the high salience of ethnicity in African politics, governments that depend on small ethnic coalitions will see peaceful protests as more threatening, as the opposition may be able to draw on larger numbers of potential dissidents and excluded groups. Alternately, governments with larger, more homogeneous ethnic coalitions will find nonviolent mobilization less threatening and will be less likely to respond with deadly force. Using the Social Conflict Analysis Database, we demonstrate that as the size – and to a lesser extent homogeneity – of the ethnic ruling coalition grows, governments are significantly less likely to use deadly force against nonviolent protesters. This finding is robust to several operationalizations of the size of the government’s support coalition, the inclusion of other measures of ethnic demographics, and estimators that account for the hierarchical nature of the data. Threat perception hinges not only on dissident tactics but on their demands, their mobilization potential, and their capacity to impose costs on the government. This article demonstrates that the size and composition of the government’s ethnic support base matters as well.

The Effect of Terrorism on Judicial Confidence

2017 ◽  
Vol 70 (4) ◽  
pp. 790-802
Author(s):  
Steven V. Miller
Keyword(s):  
Due Process ◽  
Judicial Independence ◽  
Mixed Effects ◽  
Mixed Effects Models ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Security Dilemma ◽  
European Values Survey ◽  
European Values ◽  
Global Terrorism ◽  
Global Terrorism Database

Independent judiciaries prevent democratic reversals, facilitate peaceful transitions of power, and legitimate democracy among citizens. We believe this judicial independence is important for citizen-level judicial confidence and faith in democratic institutions. I challenge this and argue that citizens living under terror threats lose confidence in their independent judiciaries. Terror threats lead citizens to enable the state leader to provide counterterrorism for their security, which has important implications for interbranch relations between the executive and the judiciary. Citizens lose confidence in independent judiciaries that provide due process for suspected terrorists. I test my argument with mixed effects models that incorporate the Global Terrorism Database and four waves of European Values Survey. The analyses demonstrate the negative effects of terror threats on judicial confidence when interacting terror threats with measures of judicial independence. My findings have important implications for the study of democratic confidence and the liberty-security dilemma.

There Can Be No Compromise: Institutional Inclusiveness, Fractionalization and Domestic Terrorism

2012 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 541-557 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis M. Foster ◽  
Alex Braithwaite ◽  
David Sobek
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Minority Groups ◽  
Proportional Representation ◽  
Social Mobilization ◽  
Domestic Terrorism ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Small Minority ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
Global Terrorism ◽  
Global Terrorism Database

Research on terrorism in democracies borrows from the literature on civil war and rebellion to argue that more proportional representation decreases the likelihood of terrorist violence. However, theories of broader social mobilization may be ill-suited to predicting the occurrence of terrorism. This article proposes that proportionalism's institutionalization of small minority groups as legitimate but relatively insignificant political actors leads to militancy. Analyses of the Global Terrorism Database on domestic terrorist attacks across all democracies in 1975–2007 provide broad support for this argument. The presence and greater degrees of proportionalism are significantly associated with greater levels of domestic terrorism when ethnic fractionalization within a given society increases. Moreover, domestic terrorism increases as the number of small parties represented in the legislature increases.

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