The World Economy: The global cost of delaying bank stability

2009 ◽  
Vol 207 ◽  
pp. 10-17
Author(s):  
Dawn Holland ◽  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Tatiana Fic ◽  
Ian Hurst ◽  
Iana Liadze ◽  
...  

In October 2008, we were already projecting that 2009 would see the worst recession in the OECD economies since 1982, and if the resolution of problems in the banking sector were to be delayed then the outcome would be much worse. We are now facing the deepest global recession in post-war history, with global growth of just ½ per cent expected this year. Output in the OECD group of economies is projected to decline by 1.8 per cent this year, with annual declines in output anticipated in all the G7 economies, even after all fiscal stimulus packages are taken into account. We estimate that about 0.8 per cent of global GDP, or roughly $550 billion, will be lost this year due to the delay in restoring capital adequacy in the banking sector in the major economies over the past three months.

2007 ◽  
Vol 199 ◽  
pp. 8-33

Our estimates indicate that global output, measured in terms of purchasing power parities, expanded by 5.3 per cent in 2006. This is one of the fastest rates of growth recorded in the last 35 years, when global growth averaged 3.7 per cent per annum. We forecast a further expansion of 5 per cent this year, with the global economy projected to remain strong throughout our forecast horizon to 2013. Prospects for growth in both 2006 and 2007 have improved slightly over the last three months, due to a decline in oil prices, a more favourable outlook for the US and no sign of a significant slowdown in China. While growth at the global and OECD level is expected to moderate this year relative to 2006, we are projecting a modest acceleration in Japan, boosted by a small fiscal stimulus and recent gains in external competitiveness.


2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 469-478
Author(s):  
Sheilla Nyasha ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo

This paper gives an overview of the Australian banking sector; it highlights the reforms since the 1970s; it tracks the growth of the banking sector in response to the reforms implemented over the past five decades; and finally, it highlights the challenges facing the Australian banking sector. The country’s banking sector consists of more than 60 commercial banks, with the Reserve Bank of Australia, the country’s central bank, at the apex. Since the 1980s, the Australian government has implemented a number of banking sector reforms in order to safeguard and improve the banking sector. The response to these reforms by the banking sector has been varied. As a result of these reforms, there has been an increase in the number of banks and a decrease in the number of building societies and credit unions. There has also been an improvement in the central bank’s oversight of the financial institutions, and an enforcement of the banks’ capital-adequacy requirements. Currently, Australia has one of the most developed banking systems in the world. The country has enjoyed a substantial bank-based financial sector development over the years, and its institutional framework has also grown stronger. However, like any other country’s financial system, the Australian banking system still faces wide-ranging challenges, such as bank concentration and exposure.


Author(s):  
Yilmaz Akyüz

The crisis demolished the myth that EDEs were decoupled from advanced economies and BRICS were becoming new engines of global growth. From 2011 onwards, with the end of the twin booms in commodity prices and capital inflows, growth in EDEs has converged downward towards the depressed levels of advanced economies from the very high levels achieved in the run-up to the global crisis and the immediate aftermath. Loss of momentum is particularly visible in economies that failed to manage the earlier booms prudently. In examining the spillovers from policies in major advanced economies and China to EDEs, the chapter introduces the notion of commodity-finance nexus wherein these markets reinforce each other during both expansions and contractions. The chapter concludes with a brief discussion of policies needed to put the world economy into decent shape and to avoid liquidity and debt crises in EDEs.


This volume documents the intellectual influence of the United Nations through its flagship publication, the World Economic and Social Survey (WESS) on its seventieth anniversary. Prepared at the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) and first published in 1948 as the World Economic Report (subsequently renamed the WESS), it is the oldest continuous post-World War II publication of this kind, recording and analysing the performance of the global economy and social development trends, and offering relevant policy recommendations. This volume highlights how well WESS has tracked global economic and social conditions, and how its analyses have influenced and have been influenced by the prevailing discourse over the past seven decades. The volume critically reflects on its policy recommendations and their influence on actual policymaking and the shaping of the world economy. Although world economic and social conditions have changed significantly over the past seven decades and so have the policy recommendations of the Survey, some of its earlier recommendations remain relevant today; recommendations in WESS provided seven decades ago seem remarkably pertinent as the world currently struggles to regain high levels of employment and economic activity. Thus, in many ways, WESS was ahead of the curve on many substantive issues. Publication of this volume will enhance the interest of the wider community of policymakers, academics, development practitioners, and members of civil society in the analytical work of the UN in general and UN-DESA in particular.


Author(s):  
Louçã Francisco ◽  
Ash Michael

Chapter 11 assesses the growth prospects of the world economy. The history of global economic doomsaying is traced briefly, a frequently reasonable position that has not done well with the facts for the past hundred years. Capitalism has been adept at escaping from the pit and pendulum. A set of global imbalances is then reviewed that are seen as posing a severe threat to global economic stability and certainly to the prospects for sustainable and equitable growth. The Great Recession following the Crash of 2007–8 might be “different this time.” Historical and contemporary fears of “secular stagnation” are discussed but the speculative nature of stagnationist assessments is acknowledged.


1927 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 716-736
Author(s):  
James Brown Scott

The scientific organizations which flourished before the World War have had great difficulty in continuing their labors after its termination. The Institute of International Law has been no exception. It was to have met in Munich in September, 1914, and its program had been completely arranged; but the war which started in August, 1914, necessarily put an end to all arrangements for the session. A resort to arms inevitably brings with it a desire for its avoidance; and the greater the war, the greater the desire. A decade, a generation struggles in the mists and shadows, seeking to extricate itself from the post-war spirit, condemning the past somewhat indiscriminately and advocating innovations which, new in expression, are nevertheless the aspirations of those who, in all time, crushed and bruised by force, seek to replace it by justice.


2013 ◽  
Vol 215 ◽  
pp. 02-11
Author(s):  
NGÂN TRẦN HOÀNG

In 2012, Vietnam?s economy faced great challenges. The world economy experienced more difficulties and complicated upheavals. International trade fell drastically while global growth rate was lower than predicted target, which affected badly the Vietnamese economy because of its full integration into the world economy and large openness. In this context, principal targets set for 2013 are macroeconomic stability, lower inflation rate, higher growth rate, three strategic breakthroughs associated with restructuring of the economy, and a new economic growth model. This paper analyzes obstacles to Vietnam?s economic growth, and offers short-term solutions to bottlenecks and long-term ones to the economic restructuring.


2007 ◽  
Vol 200 ◽  
pp. 7-30 ◽  

The global economy expanded by 5.3 per cent in 2006, one of the fastest rates of growth in the past 35 years. We project further expansions of 5 per cent this year and 4¾ per cent in 2008. The key risks to the forecast that we highlight in this Review relate to global housing markets and the current stance of monetary policy. The US economy is restrained by the recent correction in its housing market, which is expected to continue to weigh on the economy through 2008. There is some concern that the housing investment downturn may spread to other economies, and in this report we explore the areas most at risk to such a contagion. We also consider the recent volatility in the oil price, which makes it difficult for monetary authorities to distinguish signal from noise. If too much emphasis is placed on what subsequently turns out to be noise, policy settings could turn out to be overly lax or stringent.


2004 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1850011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominick Salvatore

The past decade has witnessed an increasingly rapid tendency toward globalization in the world economy, and this has significantly affected the comparative advantage and international competitiveness of nations. This paper examines the effect of globalization on the comparative advantage and international competitiveness of Europe in manufactured goods as a whole, in high technology goods, and in office equipment and telecommunications during the past two decades. In particular, the paper evaluates the view that Europe is facing a serious double competitiveness squeeze – in high-technology goods from the United States and Japan and from the bottom in simpler manufactured goods from emerging developing countries, especially the Dynamic Asian Economies. This view is based on the over-regulation and rigid labor markets prevailing in most European countries. The paper shows, however, that this view is not generally correct.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document