The UK Economy: Forecast Summary

2019 ◽  
Vol 248 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Student Loans ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Import Price ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Domestic Saving ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Potential Output Growth ◽  
The Uk

The UK's future relationship with the European Union (EU) remains undecided. Brexit-related uncertainty has led to investment plans being deferred and increased stockbuilding.Under our main-case forecast, based on a ‘soft’ Brexit and continuing uncertainty, GDP growth continues at around 1½ per cent in 2019 and 2020, broadly in line with potential output growth, and the unemployment rate stays at around 4 per cent.CPI inflation is forecast to remain around 2 per cent per annum as faster unit labour cost growth is offset by slower import price inflation. With inflation stable at target, and only limited evidence of domestic inflationary pressure, Bank Rate remains at 0.75 per cent throughout this year before being raised to 1 per cent in the second half of 2020.We expect public spending to rise more quickly than currently planned. That, together with the forthcoming reclassification of student loans in the public finances, is likely to mean that the government's medium-term fiscal objectives will not be met.The current account deficit is forecast to fall from 4.2 per cent of GDP in 2019 to around 3 per cent in 2020, as domestic saving picks up relative to investment.

The UK Economy

2019 ◽  
Vol 247 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Student Loans ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
List Type ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Public Deficit ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

The UK's future relationship with the European Union (EU) remains undecided even though the Article 50 exit date is less than two months away. Brexit uncertainty has intensified since our last forecast and is now evident in various indicators.Our main forecast is conditional on a ‘soft’ Brexit scenario. Under this scenario, GDP growth stabilises at around 1.5 per cent this year before recovering to 1.7 per cent in 2020. CPI inflation eases to the target level of 2 per cent over this period.We expect the Bank of England to raise Bank Rate by 25 basis points in August. We also expect the Chancellor to spend more than the latest OBR forecast. That, together with the reclassification of student loans in public deficit data, will mean that the Chancellor is set to breach the fiscal mandate.There is a chance that the UK exits the EU without a deal at the end of March. Policymakers will have more room to inject stimulus if inflation expectations remain anchored.

The UK Economy: Forecast Summary

2016 ◽  
Vol 238 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Disposable Income ◽  
List Type ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Monetary Policy Committee ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Policy Committee

The economy will grow 2 per cent in 2016 before slowing to 1.4 per cent in 2017: with the triggering of Article 50 there are downside risks to next year's outlook.Consumer price inflation will accelerate, peaking at around 4 per cent in the second half of 2017, and this will impact on real disposable incomeThe Monetary Policy Committee is expected to look through this near-term inflation and hold Bank Rate at ¼ per cent until 2019.Sterling is expected to remain at around $1.22 and €1.11 this year and next.

The UK Economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 243 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Price Inflation ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Basis Point ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
The Uk

GDP is forecast to grow by nearly 2 per cent this year and in 2019. Our forecasts have been revised higher since November.Annual consumer price inflation peaked at 3 per cent in the final quarter of 2017 and is forecast to ease back to the target rate of 2 per cent over the next eight quarters.We expect the Bank of England to continue normalisation by raising Bank Rate in May by 25 basis point steps and every six months after that until the policy rate reaches 2 per cent.

Section II. Prospects for North America and Japan

1999 ◽  
Vol 170 ◽  
pp. 37-45
Author(s):  
Nigel Pain ◽  
Paul Ashworth
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
The United States ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Past ◽  
The 1960S

Economic growth remains robust in the United States. Output growth is projected to be around 4 per cent this year, for the third year in succession. IMF estimates suggest that the present expansion will become the longest on record if maintained until February of next year. Private sector demand is continuing to expand rapidly, underpinned by the sizable gains in equity markets over the past few years. Underlying price inflation has remained quiescent, helped by continued above-trend growth in productivity at a time when the unemployment rate has fallen to levels last seen in the 1960s. Even so, there are some emerging signs of overheating in the economy, with the current account deficit projected to rise to 4 per cent of GDP in the latter half of this year. Some favourable transitory factors which have helped contain inflationary pressures, such as the appreciation of the dollar and weak commodity prices, also now appear to have come to an end.

scholarly journals The UK Economy: Forecast Summary

2018 ◽  
Vol 244 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
List Type ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

We have revised lower our GDP forecast for 2018 to just under 1.5 per cent mainly due to weak performance in the first quarter. But the slowdown is likely to be temporary.The Commentary in this Review builds a case for higher government spending. We have, as a result, allowed for higher total managed expenditure resulting in a somewhat slower fiscal adjustment than presently planned.Following the exchange rate depreciation of June 2016, annual consumer price inflation peaked at 3.1 per cent in November 2017 and is forecast to ease back to the target rate of 2 per cent over the next eight quarters.Because of the dip in economic performance we expect the timing of our next increase in Bank Rate to be delayed to August but reiterate that the MPC should remain on a gentle path of monetary policy normalisation.

The Law & Politics of Brexit: Volume II

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
European Union ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
Comprehensive Analysis ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Financial Settlement ◽  
The Eu

This book provides the first comprehensive analysis of the withdrawal agreement concluded between the United Kingdom and the European Union to create the legal framework for Brexit. Building on a prior volume, it overviews the process of Brexit negotiations that took place between the UK and the EU from 2017 to 2019. It also examines the key provisions of the Brexit deal, including the protection of citizens’ rights, the Irish border, and the financial settlement. Moreover, the book assesses the governance provisions on transition, decision-making and adjudication, and the prospects for future EU–UK trade relations. Finally, it reflects on the longer-term challenges that the implementation of the 2016 Brexit referendum poses for the UK territorial system, for British–Irish relations, as well as for the future of the EU beyond Brexit.

scholarly journals Advancing UK Regulatory Science Strategy in the Context of Global Regulation: a Stakeholder Survey

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samantha Cruz Rivera ◽  
Barbara Torlinska ◽  
Eliot Marston ◽  
Alastair K. Denniston ◽  
Kathy Oliver ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pay For Performance ◽  
Regulatory Science ◽  
International Strategy ◽  
Free Text ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Accurate Definition ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Healthcare Innovation ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Medium Enterprises

Abstract Background The UK’s transition from the European Union creates both an urgent need and key opportunity for the UK and its global collaborators to consider new approaches to the regulation of emerging technologies, underpinned by regulatory science. This survey aimed to identify the most accurate definition of regulatory science, to define strategic areas of the regulation of healthcare innovation which can be informed through regulatory science and to explore the training and infrastructure needed to advance UK and international regulatory science. Methods A survey was distributed to UK healthcare professionals, academics, patients, health technology assessment agencies, ethicists and trade associations, as well as international regulators, pharmaceutical companies and small or medium enterprises which have expertise in regulatory science and in developing or applying regulation in healthcare. Subsequently, a descriptive quantitative analyses of survey results and directed thematic analysis of free-text comments were applied. Results Priority areas for UK regulatory science identified by 145 participants included the following: flexibility: the capability of regulations to adapt to novel products and target patient outcomes; co-development: collaboration across sectors, e.g. patients, manufacturers, regulators, and educators working together to develop appropriate training for novel product deployment; responsiveness: the preparation of frameworks which enable timely innovation required by emerging events; speed: the rate at which new products can reach the market; reimbursement: developing effective tools to track and evaluate outcomes for “pay for performance” products; and education and professional development. Conclusions The UK has a time-critical opportunity to establish its national and international strategy for regulatory science leadership by harnessing broader academic input, developing strategic cross-sector collaborations, incorporating patients’ experiences and perspectives, and investing in a skilled workforce.

scholarly journals “East” in Europe—Health Dimension through the Lens of the UK Daily Mail and Statistical Facts

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 3705
Author(s):  
Izabella Lecka ◽  
Viktoriya Pantyley ◽  
Liudmila Fakeyeva ◽  
Alexandrina Cruceanu
Keyword(s):  
Care Practice ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Daily Mail ◽  
Media Criticism ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Health Dimension ◽  
European Immigrants ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Zero Sum ◽  
Eastern European Immigrants

The study concerns the relationship between health and geopolitics in the United Kingdom (UK). To demonstrate this relationship, we examined the subject and tone of articles published in the popular media (on the example of tabloid the Daily Mail) in 2006–2020 concerning health and medical care, and the health and health care practice of Eastern European immigrants belonging to and not belonging to the European Union (EU). There was an increase in media criticism of the behaviour of immigrants in the years 2014–2017, in the period around the referendum in favour of the UK leaving the EU (Brexit). Attention was drawn to the media’s use of a Belief in a Zero-Sum Game (BZSG) narrative at that time. On both sides, “hosts” and the “guests”, a progressive anomy process was observed, degrading the behaviour of individuals and social groups.

To bee or not to beet with neonicotinoids

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 103-109
Author(s):  
Lynda M. Warren
Keyword(s):  
Sugar Beet ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Environmental Standards ◽  
Economic Interests ◽  
Precautionary Approach ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Commercial Sugar ◽  
The Uk ◽  
First Time

In January 2021 the UK government granted an application for authorisation to use thiamethoxam, a neonicotinoid pesticide, to protect commercial sugar beet crops from attack by viruses transmitted by aphids. This was the first time such an authorisation had been granted in the United Kingdom (UK) and there were concerns that it signalled a weakening of environmental standards now that the UK was no longer part of the European Union. In fact, similar authorisations had been granted by several European Member States in the last 2 years, despite the ban on the use of neonicotinoids introduced in 2018. Nevertheless, the reasons for granting the authorisation do suggest that the balance between adopting a precautionary approach to environmental protection and taking emergency action to protect economic interests may have shifted. It was acknowledged that the proposed mitigation to safeguard bees and other wildlife was not entirely satisfactory. In the end, due to unforeseen weather conditions it meant that the pesticide is not necessary, which in itself demonstrates that short-term emergency measures are unsuitable for dealing with the problem. If the sugar beet industry is to continue to prosper in the UK, it will need to be managed in a way that provides resistance to virus infection without the use of controversial chemicals.

Introduction: How the British-exit is Impacting the European Union?

2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-149
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Brunet-Jailly
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
International Studies ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
The Uk

This special issue of International Studies focuses on ‘how the British-exit is impacting the European Union’. This introduction is a review of the context, costs and institutional repercussions, as well as the very recent the UK/European Union trade deal and implications for customs borders. Eight articles then detail consequences for European Union policies and important trading relationships: Immigration, Citizenship, Gender, Northern Ireland, Trade and impacts on India, Canada and Japan.

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