The World Economy: Forecast Summary

2019 ◽  
Vol 248 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Growth Cycle ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Trade Disputes ◽  
The Past ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Added Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Outlook

Recent data indicates that the global output growth cycle has peaked. We expect global GDP growth to continue, but at a slightly slower pace than in the past two years.Tariff increases and trade disputes have contributed to slowing growth and have added uncertainty to the global economic outlook.While slightly faster wage growth in advanced economies and tighter labour markets raise the potential for higher inflation, the fall in oil prices in late 2018 should, with slowing output growth, prevent a widespread pick-up in inflation.Continued low inflation opens the possibility for central banks to increase monetary accommodation to support economic activity should it be required.Despite slower output growth this year, this decade will have seen sustained global GDP growth averaging 3.8 per cent a year.

The World Economy

2019 ◽  
Vol 247 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Growth Cycle ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
List Type ◽  
Trade Disputes ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
Economic Outlook

Recent data suggests that the global growth cycle has probably peaked. We forecast world GDP growth of around 3.5 per cent a year over the next two years.On that basis, the second decade of the 21st century will have seen sustained global GDP growth.Tariff increases and trade disputes seem likely to act as a drag on the global economic outlook, with a bias towards slower growth as a consequence.Despite faster wage growth in advanced economies, the recent fall in oil prices has reduced the risks of inflation overshooting targets. We expect central banks to reduce monetary accommodation very gradually.

The World Economy: Forecast Summary

2019 ◽  
Vol 249 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Trade Disputes ◽  
Trade Show ◽  
Production Activity ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
Added Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Outlook ◽  
Do So

Recent trends in global industrial production and trade show activity stalling since late last year. The pace of service sector activity has remained steadier.Tariff increases and trade disputes have contributed to the weakness in production and trade and have added uncertainty to the global economic outlook.In response to weaker production activity and continued low inflation, central banks in many economies have either loosened monetary policy or positioned themselves to do so, which has been reflected in financial markets.Taking these forces into account, we have reduced our forecast for global GDP growth this year slightly to 3¼ per cent. This is likely to be, by a small margin, the slowest annual growth for a decade. We expect output growth to show a slight pick-up in 2020 to 3½ per cent.

The World Economy

2017 ◽  
Vol 241 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Economic Imbalances

Forecast for world GDP growth in 2017 has been revised up to 3.6 per cent, which would be the fastest growth in six years. Growth projections for 2018 and the medium term are unchanged, at 3.6 and 3.4 per cent, respectively. Inflation forecast has nevertheless generally been revised down slightly.In the Euro Area, stronger economic performance, together with reduced political uncertainty, provides an opportunity for action to complete the monetary union and reduce economic imbalances.To avoid jeopardising the recovery, central banks in the advanced economies will have to manage policy normalisation with particular caution.

The World Economy

2017 ◽  
Vol 240 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Soft Data ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
The Face

Global output growth is forecast to pick up from 3.1 per cent in 2016 to 3.3 per cent in 2017 and 3.6 per cent in 2018 – a slightly stronger acceleration than expected in February. Projected medium-term growth is still well below pre-crisis rates.A striking feature of the current conjuncture is unusual uncertainty, particularly about the interpretation of recent ‘soft’ data showing increased business and consumer confidence in the advanced economies, US economic policies, and policies in Europe in the face of national elections in the largest economies.There are significant risks to our growth forecast on both the upside and the downside but of particular concern are the downside risks related to the adoption of more populist policies in advanced economies.

scholarly journals The World Economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 246 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
List Type ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Full Capacity ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
Economic Outlook

The global economy is set to continue to grow at a pace of slightly below 4 per cent a year in the near term.Oil prices have risen further and with some advanced economies appearing to be operating at close to full capacity, there is a risk that inflation will increase. Our expectation is that any rise will be limited.US tariff increases and confrontational trade rhetoric are adding uncertainty to the global economic outlook, with a bias towards slower growth as a consequence.Without a recovery in productivity growth, the pace of economic expansion in the medium term will be slower than at present. Our medium term outlook is for global growth of around 3.5 per cent a year.

The World Economy: Forecast Summary

2016 ◽  
Vol 238 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
List Type ◽  
Negative Interest Rates ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Economic Downturns ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Our forecast of world output growth this year is unchanged at 3.0 per cent – the slowest annual growth rate since the 2009 recession. World growth is expected to strengthen to 3.2 per cent next year and 3.6 per cent in 2018, but to remain slower than before the global financial crisis.Downside risks to the forecast include economic downturns in the advanced economies that central banks may lack ammunition to counter, as well as financial instability as a result of low and negative interest rates. These point to a need for more balanced policies to promote expansion, with fiscal policy playing a greater role.With trade growth in recent years already reduced to half its pre-crisis rate, action to resist protectionist pressure and to promote further progress with international economic integration is vital.

scholarly journals The World Economy: Forecast Summary

2019 ◽  
Vol 250 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Trade Show ◽  
The World ◽  
Production Activity

Increases in tariffs and uncertainty about both future tariff impositions and their potential implications for production activity have continued to have negative effects on global trade and industrial production.Several central banks, facing below target inflation, have loosened monetary policy to mitigate the effects of slower economic growth and a deterioration in the prospects for trade. While we expect that further monetary loosening will occur, fiscal policy could be more effective in boosting demand.Trends in global industrial production and trade show activity stalling since late last year. Although there are also some weaker signs in the service sector, so far activity there has remained relatively robust.In the light of recent data, we have lowered our forecast for global GDP growth this year from 3¼ per cent to 3 per cent, the slowest annual growth for a decade. We expect a similar pace in 2020, with a slight pick-up in 2021 to 3¼ per cent.

scholarly journals The World Economy: Forecast Summary

2018 ◽  
Vol 244 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
List Type ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Full Capacity ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
Economic Outlook

Last year the global economy expanded at its fastest pace since 2011. We continue to expect to see slightly faster global growth this year with momentum being carried forward. We expect growth to continue to be broadly based.With some advanced economies appearing to be operating at close to full capacity, a slowdown in the pace of expansion in the medium term is likely unless productivity growth picks up substantially. We retain our view that the medium term outlook is for growth of around 3.5 per cent a year.No economic outlook is without uncertainties. Issues such as increases in tariffs, the effect of the gradual removal of monetary accommodation and the prolonged persistence of low inflation, create potential for surprises to the forecast.

The world economy

1998 ◽  
Vol 166 ◽  
pp. 28-34
Author(s):  
Nigel Pain
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Late Spring ◽  
The Past ◽  
The World ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
Economic Outlook

The economic outlook for the global economy has deteriorated appreciably over the past six months. By the late spring it had already become clear that growth in the OECD economies would slow to around 2½ per cent this year from 3 per cent in 1997, with strong domestic demand outside Japan being offset by the growing impact of the contraction in the Asian economies. However the further slowdown projected in 1999 appeared relatively benign, with monetary conditions remaining accommodative in the major economies and commodity prices remaining weak.

The World Economy

1995 ◽  
Vol 151 ◽  
pp. 30-52
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Nigel Pain ◽  
Julian Morgan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Bretton Woods ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Output Gaps

Output growth throughout the OECD has been rising this year, and several economies including the US, Canada and the UK look as if are reaching their cyclical peak. Other economies, such as France, Italy and Spain, are still operating below capacity, but have been growing rapidly enough to prevent output gaps widening. Output gaps in Europe appear to be small, and Barrell and Sefton (below) calculate they could be approaching zero. This upturn in activity has been unlike most in the post-Bretton Woods era, as inflation has not, until recently, begun to rise. Inflation in the US was, it appears, lower in 1994 than in the previous four years, despite a strong output recovery. The appreciation of the yen, and the subsequent recession have, of course, kept Japanese inflation low. However, exchange-rate movements are part of a process of ‘sharing’ world inflation, and over the past three years there has been little to share. For example, inflation in Europe has been lower than we anticipated 18 months ago, even though a slowdown in activity was already apparent then.

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