Chapte II. The World Economy

1986 ◽  
Vol 115 ◽  
pp. 27-43

The most striking developments in the world economy in 1985 were a long-awaited fall in the US dollar, which lost about 15 per cent of its effective value between the first quarter and the fourth, and a general decline in rates of inflation in the industrial countries, especially in their manufacturing sectors, where producers' prices increased by only about ½ per cent during the second half of the year.

1996 ◽  
pp. 67-72
Author(s):  
Terry Boswell

It is no accident that every political leader in current times is disappointing at best. The decline of state e ff i cacy has its source in the remarkable increase in the pace of world integration, or "globalization," that has occurred over the last two decades. Increased economic and cultural interpenetration across state boundaries is obvious to most observers. The surprise is short lived when wefind such ironies as that both sides in the 1992 Gulf War followed the battles on CNN, that Chinese studentsraised a "Statue of Liberty" during the 1989 protest inTiananmen Square, or that in 1994 the US dollar becamelegal tender in Cuba. With globalization has also comea somewhat less evident decline in a state's ability to manage its share of the world economy.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 859-893 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas ◽  
Hélène Rey ◽  
Maxime Sauzet

International currencies fulfill different roles in the world economy, with important synergies across those roles. We explore the implications of currency hegemony for the external balance sheet of the United States, the process of international adjustment, and the predictability of the US dollar exchange rate. We emphasize the importance of international monetary spillovers and of the exorbitant privilege, and we analyze the emergence of a new Triffin dilemma.


1988 ◽  
Vol 125 ◽  
pp. 23-39
Author(s):  
R.J. Barrell ◽  
Fiona Eastwood

Between June and July the dollar rose by around 5 per cent against the other major currencies, despite central bank intervention to hold the dollar down. There have been two major factors behind this strength. Firstly, the US trade figures improved in April and May and were considerably better than the market had anticipated. This reflected both some reduction in the volume and value of imports and an increase in the level of exports. Sentiment towards the US dollar has also been affected by the strength of growth in the other major industrial economies.


2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-140
Author(s):  
Marcelo Milan

This paper discusses the US dollar hegemony in the world economy. The discussion is carried out in three steps. First, the paper analyses the evolution of the US dollar in the world economy, emphasizing its resilience in the context of frequent financial crises. Second, the work discusses and compares the perspectives that trust the US dollar’s continuing role as an international reserve to those that assume a likely decline of both the dollar and the US economy after the 2007 financial crash. Finally, the article seeks to raise a few potential consequences of the continuing hegemony or declining of the dollar for the peripheral countries.


2003 ◽  
Vol 185 ◽  
pp. 9-16

The outlook for world growth this year has deteriorated since April, due to a sharp contraction in world trade in the first quarter of the year and failure to sustain the revival in private sector investment seen in the fourth quarter of 2002. We have as a consequence revised our projections for world growth this year down by ¼ percentage point. This reflects sharp downward revisions of ½–¾ percentage points in the Euro Area and Canada, both of whose exchange rates have continued to appreciate in effective terms, while the outlook for the US and Japan is broadly unchanged. Growth in Japan and the Euro Area stagnated in the first half of 2003, with recessions in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Austria appearing likely. The US and Canada, on the other hand, continued to expand, albeit more slowly than in the second half of 2002. Following two years of exceptional weakness, Latin American growth has started to revive, although Venezuela is still suffering from the 2 month stoppage in the oil industry earlier this year and Argentina has lost competitiveness due to a strong appreciation against the dollar. Growth has slowed in several Asian economies, notably South Korea, but China continues to expand rapidly, spurred by the competitiveness impact of the dollar depreciation and infrastructure preparations for the 2008 Olympics. This has helped sustain export growth from the rest of Asia despite the more widespread slowdown in world trade.


1986 ◽  
Vol 117 ◽  
pp. 20-29

Fuller data confirm the impression which we formed in May that OECD countries' total output did not change much in the first quarter. It probably increased by about ¼ per cent, with even this small rise attributable wholly to stock movements in the US. Final demand in the US fell and there were declines in total output in a number of countries, including Japan, Germany, Australia, the Netherlands, Switzerland and possibly Italy (for which there are conflicting estimates), white France achieved only marginal growth. The fall was notably severe in Germany, where construction suffered badly in the cold winter. This probably had a wider impact also, and, in North America at least, the initial effect of the slump in oil prices seems to have been depressive, with drilling activity sharply reduced, especially in the US. There may also have been a tendency for expenditure, perhaps on investment in particular, to be deferred in the expectation of falling prices and interest rates.


2018 ◽  
Vol 74 (4) ◽  
pp. 402-419
Author(s):  
Krishnakumar S.

With Donald Trump as President of United States, multilateralism in the world economy is facing an unprecedented challenge. The international economic institutions that have evolved since the fifties are increasingly under the risk of being undermined. With the growing assertion of the emerging and developing economies in the international fora, United States is increasingly sceptical of its ability to maneuvre such institutions to suit its own purpose. This is particularly true with respect to WTO, based on “one country one vote” system. The tariff rate hikes initiated by the leader country in the recent past pose a serious challenge to the multilateral trading system. The paper tries to undertake a critical overview of the US pre-occupation of targeting economies on the basis of the bilateral merchandise trade surpluses of countries, through the trade legislations like Omnibus Act and Trade Facilitation Act. These legislations not only ignore the growing share of the United States in the growing invisibles trade in the world economy, but also read too much into the bilateral trade surpluses of economies with United States and the intervention done by them in the foreign exchange market.


2004 ◽  
Vol 187 ◽  
pp. 8-35

The two key factors underlying our forecast this quarter are the continued depreciation of the US$, which is about 4½ per cent weaker in effective terms than in October and 18 per cent below its recent peak in early 2002, and the emergence of what appears to be a sustainable recovery in Japan. Our projections for world growth this year incorporate significant upward revisions for the world's two largest economies, the US and Japan, while the outlook for the EU and Canada remains largely unchanged, although they also gain modest support from stronger demand in the US and Asia.


1983 ◽  
Vol 106 ◽  
pp. 26-38

The recovery in the OECD area gathered pace in the second quarter, when its total GDP probably increased by as much as 1 per cent. The rise was, however, heavily concentrated in North America and particularly the US. There may well have been a slight fall in Western Europe, where the level of industrial production hardly changed and increases in gross product in West Germany and, to a minor extent, in France were outweighed by falls in Italy and (according to the expenditure measure) the UK.


Author(s):  
Larisa Germanovna Chuvakhina

The article highlights the current problems of investments in the development of the world economy, when international investment needs are significantly high. The priority is given to the issues of investment resources for achieving the goals of sustainable development of the world economy. It has been stated that for creating the effective economic policy, the countries need to attract foreign investment. The current trends in the development of global market for foreign direct investment flows are examined. The flows of global foreign direct investment in 2017-2018 are analyzed. Special attention is given to the study of the US investment policy. The reduction in US investments into the Russian economy in terms of the sanctions policy against Russia is marked. The changes in the investment policy of the administration of D. Trump in terms of strengthening American protectionism are underlined. The issues of US-EU investment cooperation are considered. The role of the US Federal Reserve in regulating the activities of foreign companies in the US market is defined. The main decisions taken at the X World Investment Forum of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development in October, 2018 are considered. The role of investment promotion agencies is defined as one of the tools to attract foreign investments into the country's economy. The decrease in the level of international investment and increased competition between countries for attracting foreign investment is stated. The study confirms that the investment attractiveness of the country, stability of the national financial system, and legal security of business play a decisive role in attracting foreign direct investment.


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