Chapter II. The World Economy

1989 ◽  
Vol 129 ◽  
pp. 22-37
Author(s):  
R.J. Barrell ◽  
Andrew Gurney
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Policy Response ◽  
Recent Interest ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
The World

Our recent forecasts have warned of growing inflationary pressures in the world economy. The policy response to these has been robust, and interest rates have risen markedly over the last year; consequently there are now signs that inflationary pressures are receding. Chart 1 illustrates the recent interest-rate developments, and chart 2 recent and prospective inflation rates for the major 4 economies. Oil prices have weakened over the last three months, and commodity prices, especially those for metals and minerals, have been falling.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1986 ◽  
Vol 117 ◽  
pp. 20-29
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Final Demand ◽  
Total Output ◽  
Cold Winter ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Initial Effect ◽  
Small Rise

Fuller data confirm the impression which we formed in May that OECD countries' total output did not change much in the first quarter. It probably increased by about ¼ per cent, with even this small rise attributable wholly to stock movements in the US. Final demand in the US fell and there were declines in total output in a number of countries, including Japan, Germany, Australia, the Netherlands, Switzerland and possibly Italy (for which there are conflicting estimates), white France achieved only marginal growth. The fall was notably severe in Germany, where construction suffered badly in the cold winter. This probably had a wider impact also, and, in North America at least, the initial effect of the slump in oil prices seems to have been depressive, with drilling activity sharply reduced, especially in the US. There may also have been a tendency for expenditure, perhaps on investment in particular, to be deferred in the expectation of falling prices and interest rates.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1989 ◽  
Vol 128 ◽  
pp. 20-39
Author(s):  
R.J. Barrell ◽  
Andrew Gurney
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Production ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Developed Country ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Early Indicators

Our February forecast suggested that developments in the short term would be dominated by fears of accelerating inflation and policy responses to them. This has indeed been the case. In Japan, Germany and the US wholesale prices have begun to rise relatively rapidly. Although commodity prices, especially of metals and minerals and of developed country foods, have fallen in recent weeks, at least in dollar terms they remain high and oil prices appear to have hit temporary peaks at the beginning of the quarter. These developments are the result of demand pressure. Our equations for real commodity prices, which were reported in the August 1988 issue of the Review, do have rather strong influences from world industrial production in then. As commodity prices are more timely than figures for demand and output they have often been early indicators of rising demand and we believe that they are currently, and correctly, filling this role.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1982 ◽  
Vol 99 ◽  
pp. 29-50
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Full Employment ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Real Interest Rates ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
The World

High real interest rates and high rates of unemployment were the main characteristics of the world economy in 1981, with relatively low growth rates as the link between them. Rates of inflation moderated.Since the huge increases in oil prices during 1979 gave a fresh and powerful upward twist to the inflationary spiral, the chief priority of governments in most OECD countries has been to get this turning down again. To this end they have followed strict monetary policies and fiscal policies which despite big budgetary deficits in some countries would be restrictive on a full-employment basis.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1989 ◽  
Vol 130 ◽  
pp. 23-42
Author(s):  
R.J. Barrell ◽  
Andrew Gurney
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Spare Capacity ◽  
Slow Increase ◽  
Strong Growth ◽  
The World

The overall outlook: longer-term prospects The second half of the 1980s has seen relatively strong, and rising growth in most of the major seven economies. This performance has been accompanied by a slow increase in the average rate of inflation. This combination was aided by the fall in world oil prices in 1986 and weak commodity prices. Only toward the end of the decade did strong growth begin to put pressure on commodity prices, and then only temporarily because of stock shortages of metals and minerals. The world economy was also operating with some degree of spare capacity in 1986 and 1987, allowing a period of sustained non-inflationary growth.

Spillovers to the Global South

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yilmaz Akyüz
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Global South ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Global Crisis ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
Very High

The crisis demolished the myth that EDEs were decoupled from advanced economies and BRICS were becoming new engines of global growth. From 2011 onwards, with the end of the twin booms in commodity prices and capital inflows, growth in EDEs has converged downward towards the depressed levels of advanced economies from the very high levels achieved in the run-up to the global crisis and the immediate aftermath. Loss of momentum is particularly visible in economies that failed to manage the earlier booms prudently. In examining the spillovers from policies in major advanced economies and China to EDEs, the chapter introduces the notion of commodity-finance nexus wherein these markets reinforce each other during both expansions and contractions. The chapter concludes with a brief discussion of policies needed to put the world economy into decent shape and to avoid liquidity and debt crises in EDEs.

scholarly journals Tariffs, interest rates, and the trade balance in the world economy

1989 ◽  
Vol 27 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 91-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grant W. Gardner ◽  
Kent P. Kimbrough
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
World Economy ◽  
The World

Monetary-Policy Rule as a Bridge: Predicting Inflation without Predictive Regressions

2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (6) ◽  
pp. 2559-2586 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Hua ◽  
Liuren Wu
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Historical Analysis ◽  
Policy Rule ◽  
Estimation Errors ◽  
Predictive Regressions ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Monetary Policy Rule ◽  
Out Of Sample

A major issue with predicting inflation rates using predictive regressions is that estimation errors can overwhelm the information content. This article proposes a new approach that uses a monetary-policy rule as a bridge between inflation rates and short-term interest rates and relies on the forward-interest-rate curve to predict future interest-rate movements. The 2-step procedure estimates the predictive relation not through a predictive regression but far more accurately through the contemporaneous monetary-policy linkage. Historical analysis shows that the approach outperforms random walk out of sample by 30%–50% over horizons from 1 to 5 years.

Summary and Appraisal

1990 ◽  
Vol 134 ◽  
pp. 3-6
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Union ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Labour Party ◽  
Economic And Monetary Union ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Policy Options ◽  
Foreseeable Future ◽  
The World

Our forecasts, like those of the Treasury published in the Autumn Statement, are based on the assumption that oil prices will fall back next year, as the crisis in the Gulf is resolved. We describe briefly below what might be the consequences, for the world economy and for Britain, if oil prices were to be $45 a barrel for the foreseeable future, as might happen as a result of a long war.In Chapter I our main forecasts assume the continuation of existing economic policies, which we interpret as being consistent with a gradual move towards economic and monetary union. In Chapter III we consider some of the alternative policy options which might be considered if the Labour Party wins the next election.

At a Glance …: The World Economy

2013 ◽  
Vol 225 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Significant Rise ◽  
List Type ◽  
Slow Recovery ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World

The world economy will grow by 3.1 per cent this year, and by 3.6 per cent in 2014: still below longer-term trend.Growth has slowed in key emerging market economies, particularly China, while it remains relatively weak in most advanced economies.A significant rise in the volatility and level of global long-term interest rates is inconvenient for some countries and may slow recovery.

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