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2022 ◽  
Vol 924 (1) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Naceur Bouziani ◽  
David Jewitt

Abstract Recent observations show activity in long-period comet C/2017 K2 at heliocentric distances beyond the orbit of Uranus. With this as motivation, we constructed a simple model that takes a detailed account of gas transport modes and simulates the time-dependent sublimation of supervolatile ice from beneath a porous mantle on an incoming cometary nucleus. The model reveals a localized increase in carbon monoxide (CO) sublimation close to heliocentric distance r H = 150 au (local blackbody temperature ∼23 K), followed by a plateau and then a slow increase in activity toward smaller distances. This localized increase occurs as heat transport in the nucleus transitions between two regimes characterized by the rising temperature of the CO front at larger distances and nearly isothermal CO at smaller distances. As this transition is a general property of sublimation through a porous mantle, we predict that future observations of sufficient sensitivity will show that inbound comets (and interstellar interlopers) will exhibit activity at distances far beyond the planetary region of the solar system.


2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 83-92
Author(s):  
I. D. Shlyaga ◽  
Zh. V. Kaliadzich ◽  
S. A. Ivanov ◽  
A. A. Yaumenenka

Objective. To analyze basic medico-statistical indices of the morbidity rates of the malignant tumors of the larynx in the Republic of Belarus.Materials and methods. Data of the Belarusian Cancer Register on all detected cases of the malignant tumors of the larynx in the Republic of Belarus over 2000-2019 served as the material of the study. The following rates were studied: age standardized morbidity, gross intensive morbidity, morbidity separately in the general population and working age population, in urban and rural population, males and females. All epidemiological indices for the periods 2000-2005 and 2015-2019 in the country and across the regions of the Republic of Belarus were compared.Results. The age standardized morbidity rate in Belarus increased from 4.2 cases/year per 100,000 population in 2000 to 5.8 in 2019. The gross intensive morbidity rate increased from 5.5 to 7.3, respectively. An increase in the morbidity rate from 4.0 in 2000 to 4.3 in 2019 was noted in the working age population. The gross intensive morbidity rates in males were on average 33.9 times higher than in females, and in the urban population – 1.7 times lower than those in the rural population. The maximal increase in the morbidity rate was registered in the working age population of rural areas – by 60.3% during the monitored period. A statistically significant increase in the morbidity rate was noted in the city of Minsk. The morbidity rates registered in Minsk were statistically significantly lower than those in the republic. In other regions, there was no significant difference in the morbidity rates and growth dynamics from the indices in Belarus as a whole.Conclusion. Malignant tumors of the larynx are characterized by a slow increase of the morbidity rate for the last 20 years in Belarus. The observed epidemiological trends deter


MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 585-590
Author(s):  
SUNILKUMAR PESHIN ◽  
DK CHAKRABORTY ◽  
SIDDHARTH SINGH

At present, climate change is a matter of great concern to mankind. This change, which is due to the manmade activities, is changing global temperature and the concentration of CO2 and O3 in the atmosphere. But there are some changes in the sun also. Solar changes could be assessed by solar flux at 10.7cm wavelength. Climate change could be assessed by long time temperature records. In this study we have examined whether solar change has any effect on climate change? We have analyzed two sets of data, 10.7cm solar flux (TSI) and global temperature record, along with total ozone, UV-B flux at ground and satellite data of total solar irradiance. Global temperature anomaly curve (GTAC) shows a slow increase of temperature up to about 1975 and a rapid rise after this year. Solar flux at 10.7cm wavelength shows a decreasing trend up to about 1970 and an increasing trend after this year. It also has 11 year cycle. GTAC, total ozone, UV-flux at ground and TSI also show 11 year cycle and some trend, but none of them matches the long-term trend found in solar flux at 10.7cm wavelength.


2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-78
Author(s):  
Aleper Daniel ◽  
Andama Edward ◽  
Adriko Kennedy

This study focused on the estimation of the African elephant population, distribution, and conservation threats in Kibale National Park (KNP) from August 2019 to February 2020. The objectives of the study were to: generate population estimates, distribution and assess threats to the conservation of elephants. The line transect method based on the dung pile count density from line transect, dung decay, and defecation rates were used to estimate the elephant population. The density was calculated by multiplying the decay rate with the ratio of dung density to defecation rates. The overall elephant population was estimated at 566.27 (95% Confidence limits 377.24-850.02). This was a slow increase from 393 recorded in 2005 to 566 animals in 2019. Elephants were widely distributed within the park and these pose challenges such as increasing human-elephant conflicts. With a steady increase in the elephant population and seasonal movements out of the park, there is a need to continuously monitor elephant population growth and ranging behaviour vis-a-vis available habitat range and how this impacts ecosystem dynamics and human-elephant conflicts


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nattadhanai Rajatanavin ◽  
Woranan Witthayapipopsakul ◽  
Vuthiphan Vongmongkol ◽  
Nithiwat Saengruang ◽  
Yaowaluk Wanwong ◽  
...  

AbstractBackgroundIncreased Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) of diabetes and hypertension draws policy attention to improve effective coverage. This study assesses effective coverage of the two conditions in Thailand between 2016 and 2019.MethodWe estimated total diabetes and hypertension cases using age and sex specific prevalence rates for respective populations. Individual data from public insurance databases (2016-2019) were retrieved to estimate three indicators: detected need (diagnosed/total estimated cases), crude coverage (received health services/total estimated cases) and effective coverage (controlled/total estimated cases). Controlled diabetes was defined as Haemoglobin A1C (HbA1C) below 7% and controlled hypertension as blood pressure below 140/90 mmHg. In-depth interview of 85 multi-stakeholder key informants was conducted to identify challenges to better effective coverage.FindingsIn 2016-2019, among Universal Coverage Scheme members residing outside Bangkok, estimated cases were around 3.1-3.2 million for diabetes and 8.7-9.2 million for hypertension. For diabetes services, all three indicators have shown slow increase over the four years (67.4%, 69.9%, 71.9%, and 74.7% for detected need; 38.7%, 43.1%, 45.1%, 49.8% for crude coverage; and 8.1%, 10.5%, 11.8%, 11.7% for effective coverage). For hypertension services, the performance was poorer for detection (48.9%, 50.3%, 51.8%, 53.3%) and crude coverage (22.3%, 24.7%, 26.5%, 29.2%) but was better for effective coverage (11.3%, 13.2%, 15.1%, 15.7%) than diabetes service. For both diseases, the estimates were higher for the females and older age groups than their counterparts. Complex interplays between supply and demand side barriers were a key challenge. Database challenges remain which hamper regular assessment of effective coverage.RecommendationsGiven the increased diabetes and hypertension prevalence, strategic recommendations cover long term actions for primary prevention of known risk factors as unhealthy diet and sedentary behaviour. Short term actions aim to improve effective coverage through the application of Chronic Care Model, increase attention to non-pharmacological intervention and patient empowerment.


2021 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ngonidzashe Chirinda ◽  
Chrispen Murungweni ◽  
Addmore Waniwa ◽  
Justice Nyamangara ◽  
Aziza Tangi ◽  
...  

The Zimbabwean dairy industry is massively underperforming, as evidenced by a reduction in milk yield from 262 million liters in 1990 to <37 million liters in 2009 and a steady but slow increase to 82 million liters in 2021. The current demand for milk in Zimbabwe stands at 130 million liters, and there is a national capacity for processing 400 million liters per annum. This study used literature, stakeholder inputs and expert knowledge to provide a perspective on practical options to reduce the national milk deficit and, simultaneously, accelerate the transition to a sustainable dairy value chain in Zimbabwe. Following a discussion on the key barriers and constraints to developing the milk value chain, we explored opportunities to improve the performance of the underperforming smallholder and medium-scale dairy farmers. Specifically, we discussed innovative management, creative policy instruments and alternative technological options to maximize milk production in Zimbabwe. We also highlight the need for an inclusive and creatively organized dairy value chain to optimize stakeholder linkages and improve information flow and equity. Examples of crucial investments and incentive structures for upgrading the existing value chain and monitoring greenhouse gas emissions and carbon uptake are discussed. Furthermore, the socio-economic effects (i.e., profitability, women empowerment and employment creation), milk quality, safety and traceability issues linked to a better organized and performing dairy value chain are highlighted.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Ajanaw Maru Birhanu ◽  
Tadesse Fikre Teferra ◽  
Tesfu Bekele Lema

This study was designed to improve Ethiopian traditional beer (tella) with the substitution of gesho by moringa leaves to enhance micronutrients. Substitution of gesho by moringa from 50 to 100% against the biochemical dynamics and nutritional and sensorial profiles of tella was assessed. Incorporation of moringa suppressed the activity of yeast and favored those of lactic acid bacteria, which shifted the properties of the product from a mild alcoholic nature to a low alcoholic and mild acidic nature, revealing the probiotic potential of tella. Moringa leaves at 100% substitution for gesho resulted in the least yeast count compared to the other formulations. The storage of tella samples over periods of 10 days also strengthened the probiotic nature of tella by drastically reducing the yeast cell counts (from 5 logs to <1). This corresponded to the slow increase in the acidity (0.63 to 0.99%), indicating comparatively higher activity of lactic acid bacteria. The best nutritional contents (dietary minerals) and sensorial acceptance of the product were attained at the 50% substitution of gesho by moringa. The implication of the present study is that ethnic foods and beverages can be innovated to meet the nutritional needs of the community.


Coatings ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1417
Author(s):  
Diana Diniasi ◽  
Florentina Golgovici ◽  
Alexandru Anghel ◽  
Manuela Fulger ◽  
Carmen Cristina Surdu-Bob ◽  
...  

The manuscript is focused on corrosion behavior of a Cr coating under CANada Deuterium Uranium(CANDU) primary circuit conditions. The Cr coating is obtained via the thermionic vacuum arc procedure on Zircaloy -4 cladding. The surface coating characterization was performed using metallographic analysis and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with an energy dispersive spectra detector (EDS), X-ray diffraction (XRD), and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) investigations. The thickness of the Cr coating determined from SEM images is around 500 nm layers After the autoclaving period, the thickness of the samples increased in time slowly. The kinetic of oxidation established a logarithmic oxidation law. The corrosion tests for various autoclaving periods of time include electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and potentiodynamic tests, permitting computing porosity and efficiency of protection. All surface investigations sustain electrochemical results and promote the Cr coating on Zircaloy-4 alloy autoclaved for 3024 h as the best corrosion resistance based on decrease in corrosion current density values simultaneously with the increase of the time spent in autoclave. A slow increase of Vickers micro hardness was observed as a function of the autoclaved period as well. The value reached for 3024 h being 219 Kgf/mm2 compared with 210 Kgf/mm2 value before autoclaving.


Author(s):  
Ye. Pavliuk ◽  
O. Pavliuk

Abstract. The main substantial features of the PD curve (default probability) formed in practical modeling are substantiated in the articles. It is proved that the main characteristics of the PD curve are that it is based on data on the actually restored default rate in each of the risk classes over a period of time and has a shape that approximate for coincides with the exposure function. It is shown that the best aspect that affects the calibration is the number of rating classes and ways to build them. It is determined that the slope of the curve demonstrates the classification model of efficiency. It is determined that the slope of the curve demonstrates the classification efficiency of the model. Models with high discriminant properties are characterized by a curve shape that has a slow increase in the rating classes of the upper part of the scale and a significant acceleration of growth in the last risk classes. Two main approaches to determining the number of risk classes are analyzed: the percentile-based approach and the equal score range approach. It is shown that when forming classes, it is necessary to take into account the total amount of sample observations, the proportion of «good» and «bad», and choose the number of classes so that it is not too large and not too small. Calibration practice shave been shown to be influenced by data, purpose, and study limitations. The application of the least squares method and the extrapolation method is considered on practical examples. The least squares method and in particular the derived extrapolation method allow to build a calibration curve on the basis of data on the relative frequency of defaults. It is determined that the mathematical apparatus of the family of nonlinear curves allows to model the process of exponential growth with different levels of intensity. The exponential curve and related functions may be useful in modeling more conservative PD estimates or for models with highly discriminatory properties, while the Weibull function, S-curve, and power function may be better adapted to moderate growth processes. The application of practical methods of constructing the PD scale is important for many domestic banking professionals who deal with internal models of credit risk. Keywords: Calibration, Default, Probability, Curves, Probability of default curve calibration, Least squares method, Extrapolation method. JEL Classіfіcatіon С44 Formulas: 21; fig.: 1; tabl.: 7; bibl.: 10.


Animals ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 3182
Author(s):  
Mohamed H. Houta ◽  
Kareem E. Hassan ◽  
Matteo Legnardi ◽  
Claudia M. Tucciarone ◽  
Ahmed S. Abdel-Moneim ◽  
...  

Infectious bronchitis virus GI-23 lineage, although described approximately two decades ago in the Middle East, has recently drawn remarkable attention and is considered an “emerging” lineage due to its current spread to several other regions, including Europe. Despite the relevance, no comprehensive studies are available investigating its epidemiologic and evolutionary pattern. The present phylodynamic study was designed to fill this gap, benefitting from a collection of freely available GI-23 sequences and ad-hoc generated European ones. After a relatively ancient origin in the Middle East, likely in the first half of the previous century, GI-23 circulated largely undetected or underdiagnosed for a long time in this region, likely causing little damage, potentially because of low virulence coupled with limited development of avian industry in the considered years and regions and insufficient diagnostic activity. The following development of the poultry industry and spread to other countries led to a progressive but slow increase of viral population size between the late ‘90s and 2010. An increase in viral virulence could also be hypothesized. Of note, a big recombinant cluster, likely originating in the Middle East but spreading thereafter, especially to Europe through Turkey, demonstrated a much-marked increase in viral population size compared to previously circulating variants. The extensive available GI-23 sequence datasets allowed to demonstrate several potential epidemiological links among African, Asian, and European countries, not described for other IBV lineages. However, differently from previously investigated IBV lineages, its spread appears to primarily involve neighbouring countries and those with strong economic and political relationships. It could thus be speculated that frequent effective contacts among locations are necessary for efficient strain transmission. Some countries appear to play a major role as a “bridge” among less related locations, being Turkey the most relevant example. The role of vaccination in controlling the viral population was also tentatively evaluated. However, despite some evidence suggesting such an effect, the bias in sequence and data availability and the variability in the applied vaccination protocols prevent robust conclusions and warrant further investigations.


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