Combining Static and Dynamic Recidivism Risk Information Into the Five-Level Risk and Needs System: A New Zealand Example

2021 ◽  
pp. 009385482110333
Author(s):  
Darcy J. Coulter ◽  
Caleb D. Lloyd ◽  
Ralph C. Serin
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Risk Communication ◽  
Case Managers ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
System A ◽  
Criminogenic Needs ◽  
Council Of State ◽  
Static Risk

Communicating recidivism risk is individualized to each assessment. Labels (e.g., high, low) have no standardized meaning. In 2017, the Council of State Governments Justice Center (CSGJC) proposed a framework for standardized communication, but balancing the framework’s underlying principles of effective risk communication (and merging static and dynamic information) adds complexity. In this study, we incorporated dynamic risk scores that case managers rated among a routine sample of adults on parole in New Zealand ( N = 440) with static risk scores into the Five-Level Risk and Needs System. Compared with static risk only, merging tools (a) enhanced concordance with the recidivism rates proposed by CSGJC for average and lower-risk individuals, (b) diminished concordance for higher-risk individuals, yet (c) improved conceptual alignment with the criminogenic needs domain of the system. This example highlights the importance of attending to the underlying principles of effective risk communication that motivated the development of the system.

Consistency and Construct Validity of the Five-Level System for Risk Communication Using Static and Dynamic Tools: An Investigation Using the Static-99R and VRS-SO

Assessment ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 107319112110613
Author(s):  
Neil R. Hogan ◽  
Mark E. Olver
Keyword(s):  
Risk Communication ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Level System ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Criminogenic Needs ◽  
Council Of State ◽  
Sexually Offended ◽  
Risk Categories

This study examined the Council of State Governments’ five-level system for risk communication, as applied to the Static-99R and Violence Risk Scale–Sexual Offense Version (VRS-SO). Aims of the system include increasing consistency in risk communication and linking risk categories to psychologically meaningful constructs. We investigated concordance between risk levels assigned by the instruments, and distributions of VRS-SO dynamic needs associated with Static-99R risk levels, among a multisite sample ( n = 1,404) of persons who have sexually offended. Concordant categorical risk ratings were assigned in just over a third of cases, suggesting that consistency remains a concern with the system, particularly when conceptually disparate tools are applied. Densities of criminogenic needs varied widely among persons assigned the same risk level by the Static-99R and diverged from the descriptions ascribed by the system. These findings can inform clinical assessments and further refinement of the system.

The Council of State Governments Justice Center Approach to Increasing Risk-Level Consistency in the Application of Risk Assessment Instruments

Assessment ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 107319112095806
Author(s):  
Daryl G. Kroner ◽  
Bree Derrick
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Level System ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Mental Health Settings ◽  
Increasing Risk ◽  
Council Of State ◽  
Risk Categories

Correctional and forensic mental health settings potentially have multiple risk assessment instruments administered on a single client. Because of the various methods of determining risk categories, risk-level consistency can become an issue. The Council of State Governments Justice Center developed a Five-Level System that can be applied to most risk assessment instruments. Using the Level of Service Inventory–Revised and two created risk assessment instruments, the present study assessed if the Five-Level System (vs. normative percentile categories) demonstrated greater agreement between the two instruments, and, if so, the percentage of greater agreement. The Five-Level System demonstrated 4% to 5% greater agreement for both risk-level placement and recidivism rates. The implications of this greater consistency among risk assessment instruments is an increased fairness in making risk-level assignments.

scholarly journals Evaluating Selection for Sexually Violent Predator Commitment: A Comparison of Those Committed, Not Committed, and Nearly Committed

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Perillo ◽  
Cynthia Calkins ◽  
Elizabeth Jeglic
Keyword(s):  
Risk Scores ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Multinomial Regression ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Sexually Violent Predator ◽  
Sexual Offenses ◽  
Empirically Supported ◽  
Historical Factors ◽  
Sexually Violent ◽  
Selection For

We examined state-wide data of persons evaluated for Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) commitment and compared risk-relevant data of three groups: those committed as SVPs ( n = 374), those not recommended for commitment ( n = 2,707), and those nearly committed (recommended for commitment but ultimately not committed; n = 117). Consistent with legal language for SVP commitment, binary and multinomial regression analyses revealed risk scores predicted SVP commitment recommendations in addition to some historical factors (e.g., psychiatric history, never being married, prior sex offenses). For those recommended for commitment, prior sexual offenses predicted ultimate commitment. Those nearly committed had significantly higher sexual recidivism rates than others who were not committed; however, these recidivism rates were still low (11.5%). Findings suggest evaluators’ SVP decisions incorporate risk data and follow empirically supported trends; however, the observed recidivism rates of a subset of those SVP commitment appears to target suggests SVP commitment’s potential for reducing sexual recidivism effectively and efficiently appears to have a low ceiling.

scholarly journals The New Zealand Police Early Intervention System: A review of implementation and impact issues

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 297-307
Author(s):  
Michael Briody ◽  
Tim Prenzler
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Early Intervention ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Implementation Process ◽  
Public Confidence ◽  
Equal Weight ◽  
System A ◽  
Integrity Management ◽  
Early Intervention System ◽  
Police Integrity

This paper examines the implementation process and impacts of an Early Intervention System (EIS) introduced into the New Zealand Police in 2013. The system was associated with large reductions in complaints of 72.5% against target employees ( N = 526), but without this clearly translating into reductions in the overall number of complaints. The New Zealand case also highlighted the issue of the different potential uses of early intervention. Should the priority be officer welfare or the more usual aim of improving officer conduct, police–citizen relations and public confidence in police? The authors argue that the traditional focus on reducing adverse incidents between police and citizens, with public complaints as a major guide and measure, should have at least equal weight in an EIS that is part of a comprehensive state-of-the-art police integrity management system. The paper also highlights the need for detailed publicly accessible data to ensure accountability of investments in integrity strategies.

The Relationship Between Risk, Criminogenic Need, and Recidivism for Indigenous Justice-Involved Youth

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (11) ◽  
pp. 1688-1708 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilana Lockwood ◽  
Michele Peterson-Badali ◽  
Fred Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Indigenous Populations ◽  
Health Issues ◽  
Indigenous Youth ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Research And Practice ◽  
Criminogenic Needs ◽  
Risk Need Responsivity ◽  
To Receive ◽  
The Relationship

The risk–need–responsivity framework is widely used to guide the case management of justice-involved youth, but little research is available on its applicability to Indigenous populations. In the present study, we examined how standardized risk assessment, identification of criminogenic needs, and receipt of need-targeted programming related to recidivism in a sample of 70 Indigenous and non-Indigenous youth. The two groups did not differ on overall level of risk, number of needs, match to services, or recidivism rates. However, Indigenous youth were evaluated as higher risk in peer and leisure functioning, more likely to have needs related to education and leisure, and less likely to receive adequate peer-specific intervention. In both groups, risk assessment predicted recidivism, while match to services predicted days to reoffense. High rates of mental health issues and associated services were observed in both groups. Implications of these findings for research and practice with Indigenous youth are discussed.

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