The Council of State Governments Justice Center Approach to Increasing Risk-Level Consistency in the Application of Risk Assessment Instruments

Assessment ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 107319112095806
Author(s):  
Daryl G. Kroner ◽  
Bree Derrick
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Level System ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Mental Health Settings ◽  
Increasing Risk ◽  
Council Of State ◽  
Risk Categories

Correctional and forensic mental health settings potentially have multiple risk assessment instruments administered on a single client. Because of the various methods of determining risk categories, risk-level consistency can become an issue. The Council of State Governments Justice Center developed a Five-Level System that can be applied to most risk assessment instruments. Using the Level of Service Inventory–Revised and two created risk assessment instruments, the present study assessed if the Five-Level System (vs. normative percentile categories) demonstrated greater agreement between the two instruments, and, if so, the percentage of greater agreement. The Five-Level System demonstrated 4% to 5% greater agreement for both risk-level placement and recidivism rates. The implications of this greater consistency among risk assessment instruments is an increased fairness in making risk-level assignments.

Consistency and Construct Validity of the Five-Level System for Risk Communication Using Static and Dynamic Tools: An Investigation Using the Static-99R and VRS-SO

Assessment ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 107319112110613
Author(s):  
Neil R. Hogan ◽  
Mark E. Olver
Keyword(s):  
Risk Communication ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Level System ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Criminogenic Needs ◽  
Council Of State ◽  
Sexually Offended ◽  
Risk Categories

This study examined the Council of State Governments’ five-level system for risk communication, as applied to the Static-99R and Violence Risk Scale–Sexual Offense Version (VRS-SO). Aims of the system include increasing consistency in risk communication and linking risk categories to psychologically meaningful constructs. We investigated concordance between risk levels assigned by the instruments, and distributions of VRS-SO dynamic needs associated with Static-99R risk levels, among a multisite sample ( n = 1,404) of persons who have sexually offended. Concordant categorical risk ratings were assigned in just over a third of cases, suggesting that consistency remains a concern with the system, particularly when conceptually disparate tools are applied. Densities of criminogenic needs varied widely among persons assigned the same risk level by the Static-99R and diverged from the descriptions ascribed by the system. These findings can inform clinical assessments and further refinement of the system.

A Principled Approach to the Construction of Risk Assessment Categories: The Council of State Governments Justice Center Five-Level System

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (10-11) ◽  
pp. 1074-1090 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daryl G. Kroner ◽  
Megan M. Morrison ◽  
Evan M. Lowder
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Level System ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Statistical Probability ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Base Rates ◽  
Council Of State

Consistent risk category placement of criminal justice clients across instruments will improve the communication of risk. Efforts coordinated by the Council of State Governments (CSG) Justice Center led to the development of a principled (i.e., a system based on a given set of procedures) method of developing risk assessment levels. An established risk assessment instrument (Level of Service Inventory–Revised [LSI-R]) was used to assess the risk-level concordance of the CSG Justice Center Five-Level system. Specifically, concordance was assessed by matching the defining characteristics of the data set with its distribution qualities and by the level/category similarity between the observed reoffending base rate and the statistical probability of reoffending. Support for the CSG Justice Center Five-Level system was found through a probation data set ( N = 24,936) having a greater proportion of offenders in the lower risk levels than a parole/community data set ( N = 36,303). The statistical probabilities of reoffending in each CSG Justice Center system risk level had greater concordance to the observed Five-Level base rates than the base rates from the LSI-R original categories. The concordance evidence for the CSG Justice Center Five-Level system demonstrates the ability of this system to place clients in appropriate risk levels.

Matching Services to Criminogenic Needs Following Comprehensive Risk Assessment Implementation in Juvenile Probation

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (8) ◽  
pp. 1136-1153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca J. Nelson ◽  
Gina M. Vincent
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Probation Officers ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Juvenile Courts ◽  
Juvenile Probation ◽  
Related Case ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Case Planning

One emphasis of juvenile justice reform has been implementation of risk assessment instruments to improve case planning. This study examined the ability of juvenile probation departments to apply the risk-needs-responsivity (RNR) framework into case planning following a comprehensive implementation protocol. Data were collected on 385 adolescent offenders across three probation departments following implementation of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk for Youth (SAVRY) and an RNR-related case planning policy. As expected, as risk levels of youth increased, probation departments assigned more services and addressed more criminogenic need areas in their case plans. Most case plans (86%) adhered to the policy to limit the number of needs addressed at one time. The quality of service-to-need matching varied by criminogenic need area, risk level, and site. Implications to juvenile courts’ and probation officers’ case planning and the challenges of research on service-to-need matching are discussed.

Combining Static and Dynamic Recidivism Risk Information Into the Five-Level Risk and Needs System: A New Zealand Example

2021 ◽  
pp. 009385482110333
Author(s):  
Darcy J. Coulter ◽  
Caleb D. Lloyd ◽  
Ralph C. Serin
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Risk Communication ◽  
Case Managers ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
System A ◽  
Criminogenic Needs ◽  
Council Of State ◽  
Static Risk

Communicating recidivism risk is individualized to each assessment. Labels (e.g., high, low) have no standardized meaning. In 2017, the Council of State Governments Justice Center (CSGJC) proposed a framework for standardized communication, but balancing the framework’s underlying principles of effective risk communication (and merging static and dynamic information) adds complexity. In this study, we incorporated dynamic risk scores that case managers rated among a routine sample of adults on parole in New Zealand ( N = 440) with static risk scores into the Five-Level Risk and Needs System. Compared with static risk only, merging tools (a) enhanced concordance with the recidivism rates proposed by CSGJC for average and lower-risk individuals, (b) diminished concordance for higher-risk individuals, yet (c) improved conceptual alignment with the criminogenic needs domain of the system. This example highlights the importance of attending to the underlying principles of effective risk communication that motivated the development of the system.

Dynamic Risk Assessment of Sexual Offenders: Validity and Dimensional Structure of the Stable-2007

Assessment ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 822-839 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonja Etzler ◽  
Reinhard Eher ◽  
Martin Rettenberger
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sexual Offenders ◽  
Longitudinal Research ◽  
Dimensional Structure ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Sexual Deviance ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Dynamic Risk Assessment ◽  
Prospective Longitudinal ◽  
Risk Categories

In this study, the predictive and incremental validity of the Stable-2007 beyond the Static-99 was evaluated in an updated sample of N = 638 adult male sexual offenders followed-up for an average of M = 8.2 years. Data were collected at the Federal Evaluation Center for Violent and Sexual Offenders (FECVSO) in Austria within a prospective-longitudinal research design. Scores and risk categories of the Static-99 (AUC = .721; p < .001) and of the Stable-2007 (AUC = .623, p = .005) were found to be significantly related to sexual recidivism. The Stable-2007 risk categories contributed incrementally to the prediction of sexual recidivism beyond the Static-99. Analyzing the dimensional structure of the Stable-2007 yielded three factors, named Antisociality, Sexual Deviance, and Hypersexuality. Antisociality and Sexual Deviance were significant predictors for sexual recidivism. Sexual Deviance was negatively associated with non-sexual violent recidivism. Comparisons with latent dimensions of other risk assessment instruments are made and implications for applied risk assessment are discussed.

scholarly journals Risk factors for antisocial behavior in children: comparison between boys and girls

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inês Castro Coelho ◽  
Ana Cristina Neves ◽  
Sónia Caridade
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Gender Differences ◽  
Data Collection ◽  
Antisocial Behavior ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Antisocial Behaviors ◽  
Early Assessment ◽  
Portuguese Version

Abstract Recognizing the importance of assessing the risk of antisocial behavior, this study aimed to characterize the risk factors for the occurrence of antisocial behavior, seeking to understand if there are differences between boys and girls. Eighty-five cases of children referred by the promotion and protection system due to the display of antisocial behaviors were reviewed. A total of 65 were boys and 20 were girls, aged between six and eleven years. Data collection was performed using the Portuguese version of the risk assessment instruments Early Assessment Risk List for boys and for girls. Gender differences were assessed, with boys exhibiting a higher risk level for antisocial behavior, adopting more serious behaviors (e.g., impulsive behaviors). Girls engaged in less serious behavior (e.g., disrespect). By characterizing the most prevalent risk factors, the results of this study may contribute to the identification of intervention priorities.

scholarly journals Measuring the Effectiveness of Deradicalisation: The Development of MIKRA Risk Assessment

2021 ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
External Validity ◽  
Task Force ◽  
Internal Consistency Reliability ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Maximum Security ◽  
Maximum Security Prison ◽  
Alpha Reliability ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Risk Categories

Instruments for identifying risk of terrorist offenders could help counterterrorism practitioners define parameters of effective rehabilitation and detect a change in risk level of offenders before and after treatment. This study aims to develop Motivation-Ideology-Capability Risk Assessment, known as MIKRA, to examine the level of risk of terrorist offenders. The study involved Indonesian counterter-rorism experts and practitioners for examining the construct validity of MIKRA and terrorist offenders at a maximum-security prison for analysing the external and criterion-related validity. External validity was implemented by comparing offenders’ MIKRA scores with their risk categories reported by Counterterror-rism Special Task Force. Internal consistency reliability (Cronbach’s Alpha) was also applied to examine MIKRA’s psychometric properties. The results indicate alpha reliability α= 0.933. Furthermore, offenders’ MIKRA scores are correlated significantly with categories of risk released by the official, but not correlated with the non-offenders’ scores. This means MIKRA is valid to investigate risks of terrorist offenders.

Preliminary Validation of the ODARA for Female Intimate Partner Violence Offenders

Partner Abuse ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-203 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Zoe Hilton ◽  
Suzanne Popham ◽  
Carol Lang ◽  
Grant T. Harris
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Intimate Partner Violence ◽  
Partner Violence ◽  
Intimate Partner ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Domestic Assault ◽  
Preliminary Validation ◽  
Female Perpetrators ◽  
Roc Area

Female perpetrators of assault against dating, cohabiting, or marital partners (intimate partner violence [IPV]) recidivate less than their male counterparts. Risk assessment instruments, though, have been developed almost exclusively on men. In a prospective, masked 9-year follow up of 30 female IPV offenders incarcerated in a correctional treatment institution within one decade, the base rate of IPV recidivism was 23%. The Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA) predicted IPV recidivism, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area = .724, 95% confidence interval (CI) = [0.503, 0.944], but recidivism rates differed significantly from rates based on male samples. Gender-modified items did not improve prediction. We recommend further research with larger samples to seek improved recidivism estimates among female IPV offenders, but in the interim, we suggest the ODARA can be used to apportion intervention resources for female IPV perpetrators.

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