A Principled Approach to the Construction of Risk Assessment Categories: The Council of State Governments Justice Center Five-Level System

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (10-11) ◽  
pp. 1074-1090 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daryl G. Kroner ◽  
Megan M. Morrison ◽  
Evan M. Lowder
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Level System ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Statistical Probability ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Base Rates ◽  
Council Of State

Consistent risk category placement of criminal justice clients across instruments will improve the communication of risk. Efforts coordinated by the Council of State Governments (CSG) Justice Center led to the development of a principled (i.e., a system based on a given set of procedures) method of developing risk assessment levels. An established risk assessment instrument (Level of Service Inventory–Revised [LSI-R]) was used to assess the risk-level concordance of the CSG Justice Center Five-Level system. Specifically, concordance was assessed by matching the defining characteristics of the data set with its distribution qualities and by the level/category similarity between the observed reoffending base rate and the statistical probability of reoffending. Support for the CSG Justice Center Five-Level system was found through a probation data set ( N = 24,936) having a greater proportion of offenders in the lower risk levels than a parole/community data set ( N = 36,303). The statistical probabilities of reoffending in each CSG Justice Center system risk level had greater concordance to the observed Five-Level base rates than the base rates from the LSI-R original categories. The concordance evidence for the CSG Justice Center Five-Level system demonstrates the ability of this system to place clients in appropriate risk levels.

The Council of State Governments Justice Center Approach to Increasing Risk-Level Consistency in the Application of Risk Assessment Instruments

Assessment ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 107319112095806
Author(s):  
Daryl G. Kroner ◽  
Bree Derrick
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Level System ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Mental Health Settings ◽  
Increasing Risk ◽  
Council Of State ◽  
Risk Categories

Correctional and forensic mental health settings potentially have multiple risk assessment instruments administered on a single client. Because of the various methods of determining risk categories, risk-level consistency can become an issue. The Council of State Governments Justice Center developed a Five-Level System that can be applied to most risk assessment instruments. Using the Level of Service Inventory–Revised and two created risk assessment instruments, the present study assessed if the Five-Level System (vs. normative percentile categories) demonstrated greater agreement between the two instruments, and, if so, the percentage of greater agreement. The Five-Level System demonstrated 4% to 5% greater agreement for both risk-level placement and recidivism rates. The implications of this greater consistency among risk assessment instruments is an increased fairness in making risk-level assignments.

Consistency and Construct Validity of the Five-Level System for Risk Communication Using Static and Dynamic Tools: An Investigation Using the Static-99R and VRS-SO

Assessment ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 107319112110613
Author(s):  
Neil R. Hogan ◽  
Mark E. Olver
Keyword(s):  
Risk Communication ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Level System ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Criminogenic Needs ◽  
Council Of State ◽  
Sexually Offended ◽  
Risk Categories

This study examined the Council of State Governments’ five-level system for risk communication, as applied to the Static-99R and Violence Risk Scale–Sexual Offense Version (VRS-SO). Aims of the system include increasing consistency in risk communication and linking risk categories to psychologically meaningful constructs. We investigated concordance between risk levels assigned by the instruments, and distributions of VRS-SO dynamic needs associated with Static-99R risk levels, among a multisite sample ( n = 1,404) of persons who have sexually offended. Concordant categorical risk ratings were assigned in just over a third of cases, suggesting that consistency remains a concern with the system, particularly when conceptually disparate tools are applied. Densities of criminogenic needs varied widely among persons assigned the same risk level by the Static-99R and diverged from the descriptions ascribed by the system. These findings can inform clinical assessments and further refinement of the system.

The prospects of occupational risk management during reforms of regulatory legislation basis

2019 ◽  
pp. 39-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vadim B. Alekseev ◽  
Nina V. Zaitseva ◽  
Pavel Z. Shur
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Social Insurance ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Occupational Risk ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Federal Law ◽  
Work Safety ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Legal Principles

Despite wide legislation basis of regulating relations in work safety and workers’ health, one third of workplaces demonstrate exceeded allowable normal levels of workers’ exposure to occupational hazards and present occupational risk for health disorders.In accordance to national legislation acts, evaluation should cover factors of occupational environment and working process, and occupational risk is understood in context of mandatory social insurance. This approach has been formed due to mostly compensatory trend in legal principles of work safety in Russia by now. Implementation of new preventive concept of work safety, based on idea of risk management for workers, necessitates development of legal acts that regulate requirements to evaluation of occupational risk and its reports with consideration of changes in Federal Law on 30 March 1999 №52 FZ “On sanitary epidemiologic well-being of population”.Those acts can include Sanitary Rules and Regulations “Evaluation of occupational risk for workers’ health”, that will contain main principles of risk assessment, requirements to risk assessment, including its characteristics which can serve as a basis of categorizing the risk levels with acceptability.To standardize requirements for informing a worker on the occupational risk, the expediency is specification of sanitary rules “Notifying a worker on occupational risk”. These rules should contain requirements: to a source of data on occupational risk level at workplace, to informational content and to ways of notifying the worker. Specification and implementation of the stated documents enable to fulfil legal requirements completely on work safety — that will provide preservation and increase of efficiency in using work resources.

Applying the risk principle to optimize accuracy and equity in correctional risk assessment: Results From a Simulation

2021 ◽  
pp. 0306624X2098652
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Principle ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
The Impact

As the use of risk assessments for correctional populations has grown, so has concern that these instruments exacerbate existing racial and ethnic disparities. While much of the attention arising from this concern has focused on how algorithms are designed, relatively little consideration has been given to how risk assessments are used. To this end, the present study tests whether application of the risk principle would help preserve predictive accuracy while, at the same time, mitigate disparities. Using a sample of 9,529 inmates released from Minnesota prisons who had been assessed multiple times during their confinement on a fully-automated risk assessment, this study relies on both actual and simulated data to examine the impact of program assignment decisions on changes in risk level from intake to release. The findings showed that while the risk principle was used in practice to some extent, the simulated results showed that greater adherence to the risk principle would increase reductions in risk levels and minimize the disparities observed at intake. The simulated data further revealed the most favorable outcomes would be achieved by not only applying the risk principle, but also by expanding program capacity for the higher-risk inmates in order to adequately reduce their risk.

scholarly journals Negligible risk of the COVID-19 resurgence caused by work resuming in China (outside Hubei): a statistical probability study

2020 ◽  
Vol 42 (3) ◽  
pp. 651-652 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kedong Zhao ◽  
Cheng Long ◽  
Yan Wang ◽  
Tieyong Zeng ◽  
Xinmiao Fu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Late Stage ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Statistical Probability

Abstract The COVID-19 outbreak in China appears to reach the late stage since late March 2020, and a stepwise restoration of economic operations is implemented. Risk assessment for such economic restoration is of significance. Here, we estimated the probability of COVID-19 resurgence caused by work resuming in typical provinces/cities and found that such probability is very limited (<5% for all the regions except Beijing). Our work may inform provincial governments to make risk level-based, differentiated control measures.

A neural network approach for retailer risk assessment in the aftermarket industry

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 1631-1647 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shirin Rezaei ◽  
Sajjad Shokouhyar ◽  
Mostafa Zandieh
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Self Organizing Map ◽  
Neural Network Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Management Process

Purpose Given the competitive environment and complicated relationships in supply chains in the modern era, it is important to take into account internal and external risks. In addition, proper methods must be designed to evaluate these risks correctly. The purpose of this paper is to provide a suitable map based on the artificial neural network technique to assess and classify the risk levels of retailers who have interconnected rules in the downstream of the supply chain. Design/methodology/approach In this research, a model for risk assessment with a hexagonal grid and 2D self-organizing map was applied. Findings According to the results, the model used in the study can provide a basis for classification of retailers based on the specified risk levels defined by the experts and risk managers of the company. Also with the model’s visual output, managers can have a better understanding of the distribution of the risk level of retailers. Practical implications The proposed methodology can be adopted by managers to assess the risk of members involved in the supply chain, helping them to formulate the risk mitigation strategies based on the risk levels. Originality/value As a part of the risk management process, organizations can use this developed method to reduce the existing risks imposed by the members or customers on the company.

Matching Services to Criminogenic Needs Following Comprehensive Risk Assessment Implementation in Juvenile Probation

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (8) ◽  
pp. 1136-1153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca J. Nelson ◽  
Gina M. Vincent
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Probation Officers ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Juvenile Courts ◽  
Juvenile Probation ◽  
Related Case ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Case Planning

One emphasis of juvenile justice reform has been implementation of risk assessment instruments to improve case planning. This study examined the ability of juvenile probation departments to apply the risk-needs-responsivity (RNR) framework into case planning following a comprehensive implementation protocol. Data were collected on 385 adolescent offenders across three probation departments following implementation of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk for Youth (SAVRY) and an RNR-related case planning policy. As expected, as risk levels of youth increased, probation departments assigned more services and addressed more criminogenic need areas in their case plans. Most case plans (86%) adhered to the policy to limit the number of needs addressed at one time. The quality of service-to-need matching varied by criminogenic need area, risk level, and site. Implications to juvenile courts’ and probation officers’ case planning and the challenges of research on service-to-need matching are discussed.

scholarly journals A Risk Assessment Framework to Reduce Risk Level and Optimize Software Quality

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanjeev Puri
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Management Control ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Assessment Framework ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Software Projects ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Reduce Risk

Risk management for software projects is intended to minimize the chances of unexpected events, or more specifically to keep all possible outcomes under tight management control with making judgments about how risk events are to be treated, valued, compared and combined. It is necessary to have some well-founded infrastructure for the identification of software security risks as well as the application of appropriate controls to manage risks. To be truly beneficial, the risk analysis framework must be granular and practical enough to produce a customizable roadmap of which problems exist, and to rank them in order of severity. The paper a risk assessment framework for a precise, unambiguous and efficient risk analysis with qualitative risk analysis methodologies and tree based techniques by exploiting the synthesis of risk analysis methods with object-oriented modeling, semi-formal methods and tools, in order to improve the security risk analysis of software and security policy implementation of security-cri tical systems to reduce risk levels and optimizequality instructions.

Horse Entrepreneurs and Their Customers as Partners in Combating the Coronavirus Pandemic

2021 ◽  
pp. 99-115
Author(s):  
Heli Irmeli Koskinen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Healthy Environment ◽  
Hygiene Behaviour ◽  
Social Media Platforms ◽  
Communication Activity

Customers can be important partners and a resource for entrepreneurs during a pandemic situation. In this study, the utilization of this resource was investigated from the perspective of horse entrepreneurs. Firstly, the communication activity of horse entrepreneurs in their social media platforms was inspected, and secondly, a risk assessment for each horse premise was performed. As a result, a variation of communication activity of horse entrepreneurs was found between the northern and southern parts of Finland, and different risk levels of horse premises can be shown. In Northern Finland, 25% and, in Southern Finland, 43% of horse entrepreneurs gave COVID instructions to their customers. Risk levels varied from moderate to unacceptable. Many factors affect the risk level of horse premises, and it is not always in the hands of a single horse entrepreneur to guarantee a healthy environment to customers. Rather, it needs an investigation of the hygiene behaviour of customers and partnership with customers.

scholarly journals Risk assessment of foundation pit construction using cloud model

2020 ◽  
Vol 165 ◽  
pp. 04070
Author(s):  
Tian Xun
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Simple Calculation ◽  
Evaluation Index System ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Practical Application ◽  
Foundation Pit ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Construction Risk

The risk level evaluation of foundation pit construction has the characteristics of fuzziness and randomness. Based on the theory of cloud model, a new model of risk level of foundation pit construction is discussed to comprehensively analyze the fuzziness and randomness of foundation pit construction risk assessment. Firstly, the evaluation index system of foundation pit construction risk level is established according to the field monitoring value, and then the cloud numerical characteristics of each evaluation factor belonging to different risk levels are calculated. According to the cloud digital characteristics of each evaluation factor, the determination degree of each evaluation factor belonging to different risk levels can be obtained. Finally, the weight and determination degree of the evaluation factor can be calculated comprehensively to obtain the comprehensive certainty degree of foundation pit construction risk, so as to determine the foundation pit construction risk level. The results of practical application and comparison with other evaluation methods show that this model is effective and feasible for risk classification of foundation pit construction, and has the advantages of simple calculation process and reliable results, which also provides a reference for the analysis of other similar problems.

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