Are individual stock returns predictable?

2021 ◽  
pp. 031289622110015
Author(s):  
Hui Zeng ◽  
Ben R Marshall ◽  
Nhut H Nguyen ◽  
Nuttawat Visaltanachoti
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Predictive Information ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Limits To Arbitrage ◽  
The Business Cycle

We show that the previously documented predictability of macroeconomic and technical variables for market returns is also evident in individual stock returns. Technical variables generate better predictability on firms with high limits to arbitrage (small, illiquid, volatile firms), while macroeconomic variables better predict firms with low limits to arbitrage. Technical predictors show a stronger predictive power for high limits to arbitrage firms across the business cycle, whereas macroeconomic variables capture more predictive information for firms with low limits to arbitrage during recessions. JEL Classification: C58, E32, G11, G12, G17

Stock Returns and the Business Cycle

CFA Digest ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 42-43
Author(s):  
Daniel B. Cashion
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
The Business Cycle

scholarly journals The business cycle: a definition

2021 ◽  
pp. 205-262
Author(s):  
Tuur Demeester
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Austrian School ◽  
Methodological Framework ◽  
The Core ◽  
Palabras Clave ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient ◽  
Counter Argument

The goal of this article is to properly define the economic phenomenon of the business cycle. The text is rooted in the tradition of the Austrian School of Economics, and the methodological framework builds on concepts developed by Aristotle and Thomas Aquinas. This leads to the development of a few new methodological concepts, such as a re-interpretation of «inflation» and «deflation», and the re-introduction of «imaginary goods» as an important social phenomenon. The core observation of the article is that the business cycle is in fact a subclass of another kind of cycle, the «fraud cycle». Our conclusion is that in order to produce a business cycle, the occurrence of institutional fraud in the sphere of money and banking are both necessary and sufficient. The counter-argument that honest banking can also produce business cycles is refuted in Appendix I. We believe this article is significant in two ways: 1) it provides an unambiguous recipe for the long term extermination of the business cycle; and 2) it helps expand the scope of the Austrian School beyond economics into fields of law and morality. Key words: Business Cycle, Fraud Cycle, Austrian School, money and banking. JEL Classification: B53, B49, D01, K13. Resumen: El objetivo de este artículo es definir apropiadamente el fenómeno económico del ciclo económico. El resto está enraizado en la tradición de la Escuela Austriaca de Economía, y el marco metodológico parte de los conceptos desarrollados por Aristóteles y Tomás de Aquino. Esto conduce al desarrollo de algunos conceptos metodológicos nuevos, tales como la reinterpretación de la «inflación» y la «deflación», y la reintroducción de los «bienes imaginarios» como un fenómeno social importante. La observación central de este artículo es que el ciclo económico es de hecho una subclase de otro tipo de ciclo, el «ciclo del fraude». Nuestra conclusión es que para producir un ciclo económico, la existencia de un fraude institucional en la esfera del dinero y la banca es una condición necesaria y suficiente. El Apéndice I refuta el contra-argumento de que una banca honesta también puede producir ciclos económicos. Creemos que este artículo es significativo por dos motivos: 1) ofrece una receta clara para la eliminación del ciclo económico; y 2) ayuda a expandir el ámbito de la Escuela Austriaca más allá del campo de la Economía hacia los campos del Derecho y la Moralidad. Palabras clave: Ciclo económico, ciclo del fraude, Escuela Austriaca, dinero y banca. Clasificación JEL: B53, B49, D01, K13.

scholarly journals Journal of the History of Economic Thought Preprints - Limits to Arbitrage and Interest Rates: A Debate Between Keynes, Hawtrey and Hicks

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucy BRILLANT
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Thought ◽  
History Of Economic Thought ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Limits To Arbitrage ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Business Cycle

This paper deals with a debate between Hawtrey, Hicks and Keynes concerning the capacity of the central bank to influence the short-term and the long-term rates of interest. Both Hawtrey and Keynes considered the central bank’s ability to influence short-term rates of interest. However, they do not put the same emphasis on the study of the long-term rates of interest. According to Keynes, long-term rates are influenced by future expected short-term rates (1930, 1936), whereas for Hawtrey (1932, 1937, 1938), long-term rates are more dependent on the business cycle. Short-term rates do not have much effect on long-term rates according to Hawtrey. In 1939, Hicks enters the controversy, giving credit to both Hawtrey’s and Keynes’s theories, and also introducing limits to the operations of arbitrage. He thus presented a nuanced view.

scholarly journals Forecasting Macedonian Business Cycle Turning Points Using Qual Var Model

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 61-78
Author(s):  
Magdalena Petrovska ◽  
Aneta Krstevska ◽  
Nikola Naumovski
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Leading Indicators ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
The Business Cycle

Abstract This paper aims at assessing the usefulness of leading indicators in business cycle research and forecast. Initially we test the predictive power of the economic sentiment indicator (ESI) within a static probit model as a leading indicator, commonly perceived to be able to provide a reliable summary of the current economic conditions. We further proceed analyzing how well an extended set of indicators performs in forecasting turning points of the Macedonian business cycle by employing the Qual VAR approach of Dueker (2005). In continuation, we evaluate the quality of the selected indicators in pseudo-out-of-sample context. The results show that the use of survey-based indicators as a complement to macroeconomic data work satisfactory well in capturing the business cycle developments in Macedonia.

Introduction

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Jesper Rangvid
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Final Part ◽  
Stylized Facts ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Key Concepts ◽  
The Business Cycle

Chapter 1 contains an overview of the book. Part I introduces key concepts, definitions, and stylized facts regarding long–run economic growth and stock returns.Part II analyses the relation between economic growth and stock returns in the long run. Part III examines the shorter-horizon relation between economic growth and stock returns: the relation over the business cycle. Part IV explains how to make reasonable projections for economic activity, both for the short and the long run. Part V deals with expected future stock returns. The final part, a short one including one chapter only, explains how one can use the insights from the book when making investments.

Value, size, sector, and momentum stocks

2021 ◽  
pp. 187-198
Author(s):  
Jesper Rangvid
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Do So

This chapter studies the characteristics of the most important and well-known factors. Factor portfolios are portfolios of stocks based on certain characteristics, such as the size of the company, the price of the stock in relation to, e.g., the earnings of the company, the sector within which the firm operates, etc.Factors that perform better than the overall stock market tend to suffer more during recessions. To compensate investors for their underperformance during recessions, returns on these factors during expansions are so high that average stock returns over the full business cycle end out being high. Conversely, those factors that provide lower average returns than the overall stock market do so because they perform relatively better during recessions. The business cycle again plays an important role for understanding stock-market patterns.

scholarly journals Industrial Electricity Usage and Stock Returns

2017 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhi Da ◽  
Dayong Huang ◽  
Hayong Yun
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Business Cycle

The growth rate of industrial electricity usage predicts future stock returns up to 1 year with an R2 of 9%. High industrial electricity usage today predicts low stock returns in the future, consistent with a countercyclical risk premium. Industrial electricity usage tracks the output of the most cyclical sectors. Our findings bridge a gap between the asset pricing literature and the business cycle literature, which uses industrial electricity usage to gauge production and output in real time. Industrial electricity growth compares favorably with traditional financial variables, and it outperforms Cooper and Priestley’s output gap measure in real time.

LIMITS TO ARBITRAGE AND INTEREST RATES: A DEBATE AMONG KEYNES, HAWTREY, AND HICKS

2018 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 335-351 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucy Brillant
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Short Term ◽  
John Maynard Keynes ◽  
Limits To Arbitrage ◽  
The Business Cycle

This paper deals with a debate among Ralph George Hawtrey, John Richard Hicks, and John Maynard Keynes concerning the capacity of the central bank to influence the short-term and the long-term rates of interest. Both Hawtrey and Keynes considered the central bank’s ability to influence short-term rates of interest. However, they do not put the same emphasis on the study of the long-term rates of interest. According to Keynes, long-term rates are influenced by future expected short-term rates (1930, 1936), whereas for Hawtrey ([1932] 1962, 1937, 1938), long-term rates are more dependent on the business cycle. Short-term rates do not have much effect on long-term rates, according to Hawtrey. In 1939, Hicks enters the controversy, giving credit to both Hawtrey’s and Keynes’s theories, and also introducing limits to the operations of arbitrage. He thus presented a nuanced view.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document