Through movement capacity is an essential factor used to reflect intersection performance, especially for signalized intersections, where a large proportion of vehicle demand is making through movements. Generally, left-turn spillback is considered a key contributor to affect through movement capacity, and blockage to the left-turn bay is known to decrease left-turn capacity. Previous studies have focused primarily on estimating the through movement capacity under a lagging protected only left-turn (lagging POLT) signal setting, as a left-turn spillback is more likely to happen under such a condition. However, previous studies contained assumptions (e.g., omit spillback), or were dedicated to one specific signal setting. Therefore, in this study, through movement capacity models based on probabilistic modeling of spillback and blockage scenarios are established under four different signal settings (i.e., leading protected only left-turn [leading POLT], lagging left-turn, protected plus permitted left-turn, and permitted plus protected left-turn). Through microscopic simulations, the proposed models are validated, and compared with existing capacity models and the one in the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM). The results of the comparisons demonstrate that the proposed models achieved significant advantages over all the other models and obtained high accuracies in all signal settings. Each proposed model for a given signal setting maintains consistent accuracy across various left-turn bay lengths. The proposed models of this study have the potential to serve as useful tools, for practicing transportation engineers, when determining the appropriate length of a left-turn bay with the consideration of spillback and blockage, and the adequate cycle length with a given bay length.
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