Are Tax Cuts Supporters Self-Interested and/or Partisan? The Case of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

2021 ◽  
pp. 1532673X2110411
Author(s):  
Marco Mendoza Aviña ◽  
André Blais
Keyword(s):  
Party Identification ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The Self ◽  
Congressional Election ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Self Interest ◽  
Republican Government ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Jobs Act ◽  
Tax Cuts

In late 2017, the first unified Republican government in 15 years enacted the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which cut taxes for corporations and the wealthy. Why did so many citizens support a policy that primarily benefited people richer than them? The self-interest hypothesis holds that individuals act upon the position they occupy in the income distribution: richer (poorer) taxpayers should favor (oppose) regressive policy. Associations between income and policy preferences are often inconsistent, however, suggesting that many citizens fail to connect their self-interest to taxation. Indeed, political psychologists have shown compellingly that citizens can be guided by partisan considerations not necessarily aligned with their own interests. This article assesses public support for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. Using data from the 2018 Cooperative Congressional Election Study as well as contemporaneous ANES and VOTER surveys to replicate our analyses, we show that self-interest and partisanship both come into play, but that partisanship matters more. Personal financial considerations, while less influential than party identification, are relevant for two groups of individuals: Republicans and the politically unsophisticated.

Public Support for Increasing Women and Minority MPs

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-30
Author(s):  
Catherine Bolzendahl ◽  
Hilde Coffé
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Upper Class ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Income Differences ◽  
Shared Identity ◽  
Members Of Parliament ◽  
Treaty Of Waitangi ◽  
Using Data

AbstractMost democracies fail to provide equal representation and tend to have an overrepresentation of men from the upper class and the majority racial or ethnic group. We investigate public support for increasing the number of women and indigenous Māori members of parliament (MPs) in the New Zealand Parliament, both in general and through specific mechanisms such as quotas and reserved seats. We offer three explanations: descriptive (group identity), substantive (issue alignment), and symbolic (socioeconomic and political equity concerns). Using data from the 2014 New Zealand Election Study, we found that shared identity (descriptive) matters for all measures of increased representation, but especially for Māori respondent support of increased Māori MPs. Support for increasing the proportion of Māori MPs is also strongly driven by substantive concerns, as measured by support for keeping the Treaty of Waitangi in law. Support for increasing the number of women MPs is driven most strongly by symbolic concerns (measured as increased government social spending and efforts to reduce income differences). Overall, respondents favor retaining the current number of reserved seats for Māori MP representation, whereas informal efforts (rather than quotas) are strongly preferred for increasing the number of women MPs.

Missing Voices

2011 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 391-412 ◽  
Author(s):  
James S. Krueger ◽  
Francisco I. Pedraza
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Military Service ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Service Members ◽  
Congressional Election ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Military Service Members ◽  
War In Iraq

Public opinion studies on war attitudes say little about civilians who are related to military service members. The authors argue that military “service-connected” individuals are missing voices in the research that examines public support for war. Using over 50,000 observations from the 2010 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, the authors estimate attitudes toward the war in Iraq, the war in Afghanistan, and the use of US military troops in general. The authors find that service-connected civilians express greater support for war and the use of troops than civilians without such a connection. This study discusses the implications of these findings for theoretical advancements in the literature addressing war attitudes and the conceptualization of the “civil–military gap.”

No Republican, No Vote: Undervoting and Consequences of the Top-Two Primary System

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 292-312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin A. Fisk
Keyword(s):  
General Election ◽  
Primary System ◽  
Congressional Election ◽  
Party Affiliation ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Opting Out ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Senate Election ◽  
Using Data ◽  
New System

Washington and California adopted the Top-Two Primary in 2008 and 2012, respectively. Under this new system, all candidates regardless of party affiliation run against each other, narrowing the field down to the top two for the general election. In some jurisdictions, the general election features two candidates from the same party. Ten percent of California voters chose not to vote in the 2016 U.S. Senate election which featured two Democrats. Using data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (2012–2016), I find that among those who vote in the national November elections, orphans, or voters without a copartisan candidate on the ballot are more likely to undervote, opting out of voting in their congressional race. Levels of undervoting are nearly 20 percentage points higher for orphaned voters compared to non-orphaned voters. Additionally, voters who abstain perceive more ideological distance between themselves and the candidates compared to voters who cast a vote. These findings support a multi-step framework for vote decisions in same-party matchups: voters are more likely to undervote if they are unable to vote for a candidate from their party (partisan model), but all voters are more likely to vote for a candidate when they perceive ideological proximity (ideological model).

scholarly journals Don’t Know What You Got: A Bayesian Hierarchical Model of Neuroticism and Nonresponse

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 549-569 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan D. Klingler ◽  
Gary E. Hollibaugh ◽  
Adam J. Ramey
Keyword(s):  
Hierarchical Model ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical Model ◽  
Information Collection ◽  
Congressional Election ◽  
Negative Outcomes ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Lack Of Information ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Error Avoidance

Individuals who are more sensitive to negative outcomes from error are more likely to provide nonresponses in surveys. We argue Neurotics’ sensitivity to negative outcomes leads them to avoid gathering costly information and forming/reporting opinions about stimuli. Using data from the 2014 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, we show Neuroticism is strongly and positively associated with NA/DK responses when placing politicians on a seven-point ideological scale. We then introduce to political science a Bayesian hierarchical model that allows nonresponse to be generated by both a lack of information as well as disincentives for response. Using this model, we show that the NA/DK responses in these data are due to inhibited information collection and indecision from error avoidance by Neurotics.

Trying not to Lose Ground: State and Local Government Advocacy during Passage of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 407-436 ◽  
Author(s):  
J Wesley Leckrone
Keyword(s):  
Partisan Politics ◽  
Municipal Bond ◽  
Advocacy Organizations ◽  
Tax Expenditures ◽  
Self Interest ◽  
Tax Exempt ◽  
State And Local Government ◽  
State And Local ◽  
Jobs Act ◽  
Tax Cuts

Abstract The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) was the first major federal tax reform in a generation. This article examines the priority issues of fifty-seven intergovernmental advocacy organizations during the legislation’s passage. These groups played defense from the start, in response to efforts by President Trump and congressional Republicans to streamline the tax code by eliminating tax expenditures. Blocking the potential elimination of the state and local tax (SALT) deduction and preserving the tax exempt status of municipal bond interest represented priorities for most organizations. Ultimately, the TCJA preserved many tax expenditures important to intergovernmental advocacy organizations. However, the SALT deduction was capped at $10,000, representing a big loss. This case study evaluates when and under what conditions the intergovernmental lobby influences federal policy-making. It finds that while state and local groups use a variety of tactics, their ability to navigate partisan politics and harness the self-interest of members of Congress is necessary to success.

Deconstructing Popular Mythologies about Millennials and Party Identification

The Forum ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 271-294
Author(s):  
John Cluverius ◽  
Joshua J. Dyck
Keyword(s):  
Baby Boomers ◽  
Identity Politics ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Political Socialization ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Congressional Election ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Politics And Culture ◽  
Original Survey

Abstract Americans born before 1980, called Millennials, are repeatedly treated as a singular voting bloc, but much like the Baby Boomers, have been socialized across a series of very different elections. We develop a theory of millennial political socialization that argues that older Millennials are more tied to the Democratic party and more liberal than their younger counterparts. We use the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study and an original survey of 1274 Americans conducted before the 2016 elections to test this theory. We find some support for our theory; in addition, we find that younger Millennials are socialized by issues of identity politics and culture – specifically on issues of immigration and the role of race in society. This implies a generation that largely favors Democrats, but whose Republicans are more culturally conservative than middle aged Republican voters.

Who Represents Me? Race, Gender, Partisan Congruence, and Representational Alternatives in a Polarized America

2018 ◽  
Vol 72 (4) ◽  
pp. 785-804 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashley English ◽  
Kathryn Pearson ◽  
Dara Z. Strolovitch
Keyword(s):  
Racial Identity ◽  
Congressional Election ◽  
Racial Identification ◽  
American Democracy ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Advocacy Organizations ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
Partisan Identification ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Shed Light

The belief among citizens that their views are represented is essential to the legitimacy of American democracy, but few studies have explicitly examined which political actors Americans feel best represent them. Using data from the 2006 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, we ask new questions about whether respondents who share a partisan, racial, or gender identification with their members of Congress (MCs) feel those members best represent them. Although the framers designed the House so that individuals’ own MCs would be their closest and most responsive representatives, a majority of respondents turn to other actors for representation. Partisanship is a key reason for this attenuated connection, as respondents who do not share a partisan identification with their MCs are more likely than those who do to rely on their party’s congressional leaders or advocacy organizations for representation instead. Sharing a racial identification with one’s own MC can strengthen representational connections as respondents who share a racial identity with their MCs are significantly more likely than respondents who do not to indicate that their MC represents them “the most.” These results shed light on enduring questions about the significance of symbolic representation and its link to partisanship and descriptive representation.

scholarly journals “First the Grub, then the Morals”? Disentangling the Self-Interest and Ideological Drivers of Attitudes Towards Demanding Activation Policies in Belgium

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
FEDERICA ROSSETTI ◽  
KOEN ABTS ◽  
BART MEULEMAN ◽  
MARC SWYNGEDOUW
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Welfare States ◽  
Social Categories ◽  
Theoretical Frameworks ◽  
Welfare Policies ◽  
Self Interest ◽  
Structural Variables ◽  
Welfare Attitudes ◽  
Using Data

Abstract Following the shift towards an activating role of the European welfare states, there is increasing scholarly interest in public support for demanding activation policies that impose obligations on welfare recipients. Borrowing the classical theoretical frameworks used in welfare attitudes research, we aim to disentangle the effect of self-interest and ideological beliefs on support for demanding activation. Using data from the Belgian National Election Study (2014), we find that support for demanding activation is strongly related to authoritarian dispositions, work ethic and rejection of egalitarianism. For the social-structural variables, we find direct as well as indirect (that is, mediated by the ideological dimensions) effects. Controlling for ideology, social categories that are potentially most affected by welfare obligations – i.e. those currently unemployed, with a previous experience of unemployment and low-income individuals – are more likely to oppose demanding policies, which can be interpreted as a self-interest effect. The effects of educational level, conversely, are primarily mediated and should be understood in terms of ideological preferences rather than self-interest. Our results indicate that, when analysing support for specific welfare policies, attention needs to be paid to the interplay between self-interest and ideological preferences.

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