The Macroeconomics of Demonetization: Theory and Some Conjectures

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 118-143
Author(s):  
Subhasankar Chattopadhyay
Keyword(s):  
Price Level ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Common People ◽  
Paper Money ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
E 52 ◽  
Permanent Increase

The withdrawal of high-denomination paper money in India—popularly termed ‘demonetization’—has generated interest among common people to understand what the usual macroeconomic consequences of such one-time monetary shock are. This article conjectures (a) that such unanticipated supply-side replacement of paper money of higher denominations may lead to a currency ‘trap’ in the short run and a permanent increase in the hoarding of lower denomination currencies in the long run and (b) that the effect on the GDP in the medium run can be ambiguous in a simple IS-LM framework once the effects of variable price level and changing inflation expectations are captured through the presence of an informal sector. JEL Classification: E 12, E 26, E 44, E 52

The Effect of Real Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in a Resource-Rich Economy: The Case of Mongolia

2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (4) ◽  
pp. 211-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gan-Ochir Doojav
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

For resource-rich developing economies, the effect of real exchange rate depreciation on trade balance may differ from the standard findings depending on country specific characteristics. This article employs vector error correction model to examine the effect of real exchange rate on trade balance in Mongolia, a resource-rich developing country. Empirical results show that exchange rate depreciation improves trade balance in both short and long run. In particular, the well-known Marshall–Lerner condition holds in the long run; however, there is no evidence of the classic J-curve effects in the short run. The results suggest that the exchange rate flexibility may help to deal effectively with current account deficits and exchange rate risk. JEL Classification: C32, C51, F14, F32

scholarly journals Responsiveness of Electricity Generation Towards Price Level: An Empirical Investigation From Pakistan

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-27
Author(s):  
Hafiz Saqib Mehmood Najmi ◽  
Farrukh Bashir ◽  
Farida Nadeem
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Price Level ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Estimation Technique ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The purpose of this study is to explore the effect of Electricity Generation on Price level of Pakistan’s Economy during period from 1981 to 2013. ARDL estimation technique is followed for reliable long run and short run estimates of the model. For elasticities of Price level, all variables are transformed into natural log form. Electricity Generation is discovered as declining price level while exports, money supply and external debt are increasing price level of Pakistan. 

scholarly journals Asymmetric Relationships Between Information and Communication Technology (ICT), Globalization, and Human Development in India: Evidence From Non-Linear ARDL Analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jayanti Behera ◽  
Dukhabandhu Sahoo
Keyword(s):  
Human Development ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Asymmetric Relationships

Abstract The objective of the paper is to examine the asymmetric relationships between ICT, globalization, and human development in India by analyzing the annual data from 1991 to 2019 through the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. The result shows that positive and negative changes in globalization lead to a decline in human development in the long run, consistent with the literature. Further, a positive change in mobile density increases human development in the long run. A decline in internet density has a positive impact on human development in the long run, and it needs further investigation. In the short run, a positive shock in globalization with one lag has a positive impact on human development. Moreover, a previous year positive and negative shocks in internet density have a positive effect on human development while the previous two years positive and negative shocks in internet density have a negative effect on human development in the short run. It is also found that the global financial crisis 2008 has a negative impact on human development. Thus, it is suggested that India has to promote both globalization and ICT judiciously and consciously in order to improve the human development. JEL Classification: O47, F00, I32, C51

scholarly journals Nexus Among Tourism, Environmental Degradation, Inward FDI and Economic Growth: Fresh Evidence from ASEAN Countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Azam ◽  
Sameena Noor ◽  
Muhammad Atif Nawaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Pooled Mean Group ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
Tourism Arrivals

Abstract This study aims to investigate the linkage among tourism, foreign direct investment, environmental degradation by CO2 emissions and economic growth in five countries from Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) over 1995–2017. The outcomes of pooled mean group (PMG) estimator reveal that FDI and international tourism arrivals have a significantly positive influence on economic growth both in the short-run and the long-run. The association between growth and CO2 emissions is found negative and significant. The Granger causality result reveals that there is bidirectional causality between FDI and growth, tourism and growth and FDI and tourism. A unidirectional causal link is found between CO2 emissions and growth, tourism and population and population and CO2 emissions. These findings suggest enhance more inward FDI, control environmental pollution, but also necessary to attract more tourists towards these countries, which in turn, generate revenue and boost up economic growth and development.JEL Classification Codes: F21; O13; O47; Z32

scholarly journals DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF REMITTANCES ON EXTERNAL RESERVES IN NIGERIA: THE ROLE OF INFLATION AND STRUCTURAL BREAKS

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-141
Author(s):  
E. A. OLUBIYI ◽  
A. RAHEEM ◽  
A. A. ADEMOKOYA
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Short Run

This study provides additional information about the drivers of external reserves in Nigeria.  The result using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model estimation approach for the period 1980-2015 shows that remittances, among other macroeconomic variables, increased external reserves in the short run but weakens it in the long run. Remittances depletes external reserves through its effect on inflation rate and the nonsterilized intervention of the Central Bank.  Furthermore, regime shift to relatively floating exchange rate causes remittances to increase reserves.  From the foregoing, it is important for the authorities to continue operating relatively flexible exchange rate, and curtail excessive spending of remittances.   Keywords: , , , , . JEL Classification: F31, F24, C22, F31  

Infrastructure investment and employment: Evidence for Portugal

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 1377
Author(s):  
Alfredo M. Pereira ◽  
Rui M. Pereira ◽  
Pedro G. Rodrigues
Keyword(s):  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Employment Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Infrastructure Investments

We estimated how investment in 12 infrastructure types affects employment in Portugal. Using a vector-autoregressive specification at the industry level, we found a double dividend associated with ports and airports: investing in either delivers the greatest bang per euro, both on impact and in the long run. One million euros invested in ports and airports creates 717.1 and 290.5 jobs in the long run, respectively, and 535 and 253.3 jobs in the short run, respectively. Regarding long-term employment effects, these are followed by municipal roads, telecommunications, national roads, health structures, education facilities, refineries, railroads, and highways. Water infrastructures and electricity and gas infrastructures have negligible effects. With the long-term effects decomposed, sizable supply-side employment effects for health and education facilities exist, while demand-side effects dominate for airports, ports, municipal roads, and telecommunications. Employment following the investment in national roads is balanced across demand and supply channels. We found no significant employment-related location effects of infrastructure investments. Also, investing in either health facilities or in education buildings entails non-negligible job losses in the short run. These results suggest that the magnitude and the timing of job creation crucially depend on the type of infrastructure investment. Policymakers in Portugal need to be aware of this in choosing between countercyclical or structural targets.

Linkages Between the Foreign Exchange Markets of BRIC Countries—Brazil, Russia, India and China—and the USA

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 333-353 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramya Rajajagadeesan Aroul ◽  
Peggy E. Swanson
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Foreign Exchange Markets ◽  
Bric Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Exchange Markets ◽  
Equilibrium Relationships ◽  
India And China

The past decade has witnessed increasing trade and capital flow movements between BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and the USA indicating a need for a better understanding of currency linkages between these countries. This article examines long-run and short-run relationships between foreign exchange markets of BRIC countries and the USA. Long-run results indicate that, over a period beginning January 2000 and ending November 2013, the currency markets of China, India and the USA are tied together, implying that from the perspective of the US investor, the markets of Brazil and Russia provide the greater diversification benefits. Further, the USA is found to be the source of the common trend (CT), suggesting that it leads the three (cointegrated) markets towards the long-run equilibrium relationships. Brazil and India share no short-run lead-lag relationship with the USA. JEL Classification: F31, G15

scholarly journals Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price on Inflation: Evidence from Nepal

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-46
Author(s):  
Dipesh Karki ◽  
Hari Gopal Risal
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Unit Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Asymmetric Adjustment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pass Through

This paper investigates asymmetric oil price pass through on inflation in Nepal using time series data of 331 months from April 1987 to February 2018. The paper applies Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model to estimate long run and short run asymmetric adjustment of refined petroleum products on Consumer Price Index (CPI). Finding shows presence of long run asymmetric adjustment between price of all petroleum products and CPI. However, when the model is controlled for monetary impact and price level of India, only the price of diesel is found to have long run asymmetric pass through into inflation. The long run cointegrating equation shows unit rise in price of diesel is accompanied by small contraction in CPI in long run by -0.048 units. Meanwhile unit fall in price of diesel is shown to have positive long run pass through in CPI by 0.431 units. This apparent anomaly could be attributed to fact that with rise in price of diesel, demand for cheaper adulterant like kerosene increases thus resulting in fall in CPI Similarly, fall in unit price of diesel could have overall increased industrial demand and other resources which in turn led to significant increase in CPI. Meanwhile, study didn’t find any significant asymmetry in short run between CPI and petroleum products. However, in short run a significant impact on the CPI by actual size of increased price of Petrol and Diesel has been found. Hence, in short run, it shows that it is the size of price increase in Petrol and Diesel; not the price itself that has significant effect on the CPI. Since petroleum products in Nepal are not priced by market, these findings can provide guidelines for future oil pricing in reducing the spillover impact on general price level.

scholarly journals Triangular Causality and Controlling Parallel Exchange Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-32
Author(s):  
Bijan Bidabad
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Relationship

In this paper, the triangular relationship of money, price, and foreign exchange in a causality context are studied. It is concluded that regulating the exchange rate by volume of liquidity in a period of less than a year is not possible, but in annual and biannual analyses we can regulate the exchange rate through controlling the liquidity. In other words, in the long run, the exchange rate is affected by liquidity and price level, but in the short run, the price level has only temporary effects on the exchange rate. The results of the study show that: liquidity affects the exchange rate in the long run; price affects the liquidity in the long run; in the long run, liquidity and exchange rate affect prices.  Our results show that injection of foreign exchange into the parallel exchange market with different lags has little effects with different directions on the exchange rate. The same result is true for the relationship between liquidity and dollar rate. In other words, in spite of the long run relationship between exchange rate and liquidity, we cannot justify this relationship in the short run. The same is true with the balance of payments position and exchange rate in the short run. By simulating the relationship between injecting (selling) foreign exchange in the parallel exchange market, liquidity and the cumulative balance of payments all with exchange rate, we can conclude that in the short run, regulating exchange rate by instruments such as selling exchange in the parallel market or controlling the liquidity is not possible, but in the long run, conducting foreign exchange sale policy and controlling the liquidity and the balance of payments position can control the exchange market.

Are Merchandise Exports and FDI Inflows an Engine of Growth for ASEAN-10 Countries? New Evidence Using the Pooled Mean Group Estimation Method

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 414-430 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soo Khoon Goh ◽  
Koi Nyen Wong ◽  
Chee Lam Yew
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Regional Economy ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Regional Growth ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Pooled Mean Group ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has made remarkable economic progress in terms of rapid economic growth and expanding export trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). Theoretically speaking, both merchandise exports and FDI can be regarded as the key driving forces behind the ‘economic miracle’ of the regional economy. The major contribution of this study is that it is the first effort to empirically analyse the short-run and long-run growth effects of merchandise exports and FDI on the ASEAN-10 countries using time-series panel data. In this regard, this study aims to ascertain whether the spectacular regional growth is export- and FDI-driven, based on the ASEAN-10 panel data spanning from 1970 to 2016 using the pooled mean group (PMG) method. The findings show that merchandise exports are a key source of growth for the regional economy, attributable to the joint liberalisation efforts of the member states to expand trade and FDI. The study does not find evidence of FDI-led growth because the bulk of the FDI was invested in only a few ASEAN countries, and the minor FDI-recipient countries are at an early stage to benefit from the growth impacts of FDI, owing to lower absorptive capacity. JEL Classification: C51, F21, F23, O19

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