A dynamic prognostic model to predict survival in post–polycythemia vera myelofibrosis

Blood ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 111 (7) ◽  
pp. 3383-3387 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Passamonti ◽  
Elisa Rumi ◽  
Marianna Caramella ◽  
Chiara Elena ◽  
Luca Arcaini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Polycythemia Vera ◽  
Leukocyte Count ◽  
Hemoglobin Level ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Late Evolution ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression ◽  
Time Dependent Covariates

Abstract Post–polycythemia vera myelofibrosis (post-PV MF) is a late evolution of PV. In 647 patients with PV, we found that leukocytosis leukocyte count > (15 × 109/L) at diagnosis is a risk factor for the evolution of post-PV MF. In a series of 68 patients who developed post-PV MF, median survival was 5.7 years. Hemoglobin level less than 100 g/L (10 g/dL) at diagnosis of post-PV MF was an independent risk factor for survival. The course of post-PV MF, however, is a dynamic process that implies a progressive worsening of clinical parameters. Using a multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression with time-dependent covariates, we found that a dynamic score based on hemoglobin level less than 100 g/L (10 g/dL), platelet count less than 100 × 109/L, and leukocyte count more than 30 × 109/L is useful to predict survival at any time from diagnosis of post-PV MF. The resulting hazard ratio of the score was 4.2 (95% CI: 2.4-7.7; P < .001), meaning a 4.2-fold worsening of survival for each risk factor acquired during follow up. In conclusion, leukocytosis at diagnosis of PV is a risk factor for evolution in post-PV MF. A dynamic score based on hemoglobin level, and platelet and leukocyte count predicts survival at any time from diagnosis of post-PV MF.

scholarly journals Low serum parathyroid hormone is a risk factor for peritonitis episodes in incident peritoneal dialysis patients: a retrospective study

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuqi Yang ◽  
Jingjing Da ◽  
Yi Jiang ◽  
Jing Yuan ◽  
Yan Zha
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Peritoneal Dialysis ◽  
Parathyroid Hormone ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Serum Parathyroid Hormone ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression ◽  
Gram Negative Organisms ◽  
Serum Pth

Abstract Background Serum parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels have been reported to be associated with infectious mortality in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Peritonitis is the most common and fatal infectious complication, resulting in technique failure, hospital admission and mortality. Whether PTH is associated with peritonitis episodes remains unclear. Methods We examined the association of PTH levels and peritonitis incidence in a 7-year cohort of 270 incident PD patients who were maintained on dialysis between January 2012 and December 2018 using Cox proportional hazard regression analyses. Patients were categorized into three groups by serum PTH levels as follows: low-PTH group, PTH < 150 pg/mL; middle-PTH group, PTH 150-300 pg/mL; high-PTH group, PTH > 300 pg/mL. Results During a median follow-up of 29.5 (interquartile range 16–49) months, the incidence rate of peritonitis was 0.10 episodes per patient-year. Gram-positive organisms were the most common causative microorganisms (36.2%), and higher percentage of Gram-negative organisms was noted in patients with low PTH levels. Low PTH levels were associated with older age, higher eGFR, higher hemoglobin, calcium levels and lower phosphate, alkaline phosphatase levels. After multivariate adjustment, lower PTH levels were identified as an independent risk factor for peritonitis episodes [hazard ratio 1.643, 95% confidence interval 1.014–2.663, P = 0.044]. Conclusions Low PTH levels are independently associated with peritonitis in incident PD patients.

scholarly journals Low Serum Parathyroid Hormone is a Risk Factor for Peritonitis Episodes in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients: A Retrospective Study 

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuqi Yang ◽  
Jingjing Da ◽  
Yi Jiang ◽  
Jing Yuan ◽  
Yan Zha
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Peritoneal Dialysis ◽  
Parathyroid Hormone ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Serum Parathyroid Hormone ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression ◽  
Serum Pth ◽  
Technique Failure

Abstract Backgroud: Serum parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels have been reported to be associated with infectious mortality in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Peritonitis is the most common and fatal infectious complication, resulting in technique failure, hospital admission and mortality. Whether PTH is associated with peritonitis episodes remains unclear.Methods: We examined the association of PTH levels and peritonitis incidence in a 7-year cohort of 270 incident PD patients who were maintained on dialysis between January 2012 and December 2018 using Cox proportional hazard regression analyses. Patients were categorized into three groups by serum PTH levels as follows: low-PTH group, PTH<150pg/mL; middle-PTH group, PTH=150-300pg/mL; high-PTH group, PTH>300pg/mL .Results: During a median follow-up of 29.5 (interquartile range 16-49) months, 73 (27.0%) peritonitis episodes occurred. Low PTH levels were associated with older age, higher calcium levels and lower alkaline phosphatase levels. After multivariate adjustment, lower PTH levels were identified as an independent risk factor for peritonitis episodes [hazard ratio 1.643, 95% confidence interval 1.014-2.663, P=0.044].Conclusions: Low PTH levels are independently associated with peritonitis in incident PD patients.

A Dynamic Prognostic Model To Predict Survival in Post-Polycythemia Vera Myelofibrosis.

Blood ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 110 (11) ◽  
pp. 2547-2547
Author(s):  
Francesco F. Passamonti ◽  
Elisa E. Rumi ◽  
Marianna M. Caramella ◽  
Chiara C. Elena ◽  
Luca L. Arcaini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Platelet Count ◽  
Prognostic Factors ◽  
Polycythemia Vera ◽  
Median Survival ◽  
Prognostic Model ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression

Abstract Polycythemia vera (PV) is a chronic myeloproliferative disorder with a propensity to develop myelofibrosis, a condition named post polycythemia vera myelofibrosis (post-PV MF). Survival and prognostic factors after transition to MF remain to be defined. We studied 68 patients with post-PV MF to define survival and prognostic factors for survival at diagnosis of post-PV MF. We also developed a dynamic prognostic model to predict survival at any time from diagnosis of post-PV MF. The median interval between the diagnosis of PV and that of post-PV MF was 13 years (range, 4–29.6 years). Patients with post-PV MF were observed for 181 person-years of follow-up. At diagnosis of post-PV MF, 43 (63%) of 68 patients had less than 65 years. During the follow-up, the incidence of thrombosis was 42 × 1000 person-years (95% CI: 19–93.5) and the incidence of leukemia was 50.3 × 1000 person-years (95% CI: 26–115). The median survival was 5.7 years. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression including age, hemoglobin value, platelet count, leukocyte count, and spleen size, showed that hemoglobin &lt; 10 g/dL (P &lt; .001) and platelet count &lt; 100 × 109/L (P= .026) were independent risk factors for survival. We stratified patients at diagnosis of post-PV MF, according to these factors, obtaining two risk groups with significantly different survival (P = .003): low risk (Hb &gt; 10 g/dL and platelet count &gt; 100 × 109/L) with a median survival of 7 years, and high risk (Hb &lt; 10 g/dL or platelet count &lt; 100 × 109/L) with a median survival of 2 years. The prognostic model retained significance after adjustment for age in a multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression (HR: 4.3, 95% CI: 1.6–11.4; P= .003). To assess whether this prognostic model may predict survival at any time from diagnosis of post-PV MF, we evaluated in a time-dependent analysis 64 patients who had longitudinal blood cell counts during follow-up. As first step, we evaluated univariate survival analysis with hemoglobin value &lt; 10 g/dL and platelet count &lt; 100 ×109/L as time-dependent covariates. Both time-dependent parameters affected survival (HR for hemoglobin 5.8, 95% CI: 2.2–15.2, P &lt; 0.001; HR for platelets 4.5, 95% CI: 1.67-12, P=.002). As second step, we evaluated the prognostic model assessed at diagnosis as time-dependent covariate, to define whether the acquisition of one risk factor during follow-up may affect survival. The HR was 7.5 (95% CI: 2.4-23.4; P &lt; .001). The time-dependent prognostic model retained statistical significance after adjustment for age (P &lt; .001). In conclusion, in patients developing post-PV myelofibrosis, a prognostic model based on hemoglobin level &lt; 10 g/dL and platelet count &lt; 100 × 109/L may predict survival at diagnosis of post-PV MF and at any time thereafter.

scholarly journals Low serum parathyroid hormone is a risk factor for peritonitis episodes in incident peritoneal dialysis patients: a retrospective study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuqi Yang ◽  
Jingjing Da ◽  
Yi Jiang ◽  
Jing Yuan ◽  
Yan Zha
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Peritoneal Dialysis ◽  
Parathyroid Hormone ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Serum Parathyroid Hormone ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression ◽  
Gram Negative Organisms ◽  
Serum Pth

Abstract Background: Serum parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels have been reported to be associated with infectious mortality in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Peritonitis is the most common and fatal infectious complication, resulting in technique failure, hospital admission and mortality. Whether PTH is associated with peritonitis episodes remains unclear.Methods: We examined the association of PTH levels and peritonitis incidence in a 7-year cohort of 270 incident PD patients who were maintained on dialysis between January 2012 and December 2018 using Cox proportional hazard regression analyses. Patients were categorized into three groups by serum PTH levels as follows: low-PTH group, PTH<150pg/mL; middle-PTH group, PTH 150-300pg/mL; high-PTH group, PTH>300pg/mL.Results: During a median follow-up of 29.5 (interquartile range 16-49) months, the incidence rate of peritonitis was 0.10 episodes per patient-year. Gram-positive organisms were the most common causative microorganisms (36.2%), and higher percentage of Gram-negative organisms was noted in patients with low PTH levels. Low PTH levels were associated with older age, higher eGFR, higher hemoglobin, calcium levels and lower phosphate, alkaline phosphatase levels. After multivariate adjustment, lower PTH levels were identified as an independent risk factor for peritonitis episodes [hazard ratio 1.643, 95% confidence interval 1.014-2.663, P=0.044].Conclusions: Low PTH levels are independently associated with peritonitis in incident PD patients.

scholarly journals Low serum parathyroid hormone is a risk factor for peritonitis episodes in incident peritoneal dialysis patients: a retrospective study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuqi Yang ◽  
Jingjing Da ◽  
Yi Jiang ◽  
Jing Yuan ◽  
Yan Zha
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Peritoneal Dialysis ◽  
Parathyroid Hormone ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Serum Parathyroid Hormone ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression ◽  
Gram Negative Organisms ◽  
Serum Pth

Abstract Background: Serum parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels have been reported to be associated with infectious mortality in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Peritonitis is the most common and fatal infectious complication, resulting in technique failure, hospital admission and mortality. Whether PTH is associated with peritonitis episodes remains unclear.Methods: We examined the association of PTH levels and peritonitis incidence in a 7-year cohort of 270 incident PD patients who were maintained on dialysis between January 2012 and December 2018 using Cox proportional hazard regression analyses. Patients were categorized into three groups by serum PTH levels as follows: low-PTH group, PTH<150pg/mL; middle-PTH group, PTH=150-300pg/mL; high-PTH group, PTH>300pg/mL.Results: During a median follow-up of 29.5 (interquartile range 16-49) months, the incidence rate of peritonitis was 0.10 episodes per patient-year. Gram-positive organisms were the most common causative microorganisms (36.2%), and higher percentage of Gram-negative organisms was noted in patients with low PTH levels. Low PTH levels were associated with older age, higher eGFR, higher hemoglobin, calcium levels and lower phosphate, alkaline phosphatase levels. After multivariate adjustment, lower PTH levels were identified as an independent risk factor for peritonitis episodes [hazard ratio 1.643, 95% confidence interval 1.014-2.663, P=0.044].Conclusions: Low PTH levels are independently associated with peritonitis in incident PD patients.

scholarly journals Low serum parathyroid hormone is a risk factor for peritonitis episodes in incident peritoneal dialysis patients: a retrospective study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuqi Yang ◽  
Jingjing Da ◽  
Yi Jiang ◽  
Jing Yuan ◽  
Yan Zha
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Peritoneal Dialysis ◽  
Parathyroid Hormone ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Serum Parathyroid Hormone ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression ◽  
Serum Pth ◽  
Technique Failure

Abstract Backgroud : Serum parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels have been reported to be associated with infectious mortality in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Peritonitis is the most common and fatal infectious complication, resulting in technique failure, hospital admission and mortality. Whether PTH is associated with peritonitis episodes remains unclear. Methods : We examined the association of PTH levels and peritonitis incidence in a 7-year cohort of 270 incident PD patients who were maintained on dialysis between January 2012 and December 2018 using Cox proportional hazard regression analyses. Patients were categorized into three groups by serum PTH levels as follows: low-PTH group, PTH<150pg/mL; middle-PTH group, PTH=150-300pg/mL; high-PTH group, PTH>300pg/mL. Results : During a median follow-up of 29.5 (interquartile range 16-49) months, the incidence rate of peritonitis was 0.10 episodes per patient-year. Low PTH levels were associated with older age, higher calcium levels and lower alkaline phosphatase levels. After multivariate adjustment, lower PTH levels were identified as an independent risk factor for peritonitis episodes [hazard ratio 1.643, 95% confidence interval 1.014-2.663, P=0.044]. Conclusions: Low PTH levels are independently associated with peritonitis in incident PD patients.

Manual occupations with high all-cause mortality: The contribution of socioeconomic and occupational characteristics

2020 ◽  
pp. 140349482096065
Author(s):  
Hanna Rinne ◽  
Mikko Laaksonen
Keyword(s):  
High Mortality ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Occupational Characteristics ◽  
Study Population ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression ◽  
Year 2000

Aims: Most high mortality-risk occupations are manual occupations. We examined to what extent high mortality of such occupations could be explained by education, income, unemployment or industry and whether there were differences in these effects among different manual occupations. Methods: We used longitudinal individual-level register-based data, the study population consisting of employees aged 30–64 at the end of the year 2000 with the follow-up period 2001–2015. We used Cox proportional hazard regression models in 31 male and 11 female occupations with high mortality. Results: There were considerable differences between manual occupations in how much adjusting for education, income, unemployment and industry explained the excess mortality. The variation was especially large among men: controlling for these variables explained over 50% of the excess mortality in 23 occupations. However, in some occupations the excess mortality even increased in relation to unadjusted mortality. Among women, these variables explained a varying proportion of the excess mortality in every occupation. After adjustment of all variables, mortality was no more statistically significantly higher than average in 14 occupations among men and 2 occupations among women. Conclusions: The high mortality in manual occupations was mainly explained by education, income, unemployment and industry. However, the degree of explanation varied widely between occupations, and considerable variation in mortality existed between manual occupations after controlling for these variables. More research is needed on other determinants of mortality in specific high-risk occupations.

P0411PREDICTORS OF RENAL AND PATIENT OUTCOME IN PATIENTS WITH IDIOPATHIC MEMBRANOUS NEPHROPATHY: FROM KOGNET DATA

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (Supplement_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ji-Young Choi ◽  
Ji Hye Kim ◽  
Ga Young Lee ◽  
Hee Won Noh ◽  
Soojee Jeon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Patient Outcome ◽  
Serum Albumin ◽  
Serum Albumin Level ◽  
Patient Survival ◽  
Albumin Level ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression

Abstract Background and Aims Idiopathic membranous nephropathy (iMN) is a leading cause of nephrotic syndrome and one of the major causes of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Various factors can affect renal and patient outcome in patients with iMN. In this study, we analyzed the predictors of renal and patient survival in patients with iMN. Method We analyzed 1,776 patients diagnosed with iMN in Korean GlomeruloNEphritis STudy (KoGNET), a retrospective database of patients with renal biopsy from 1979 to 2018 from 18 centers in Korea. Student t-test for continuous variables and Chi-square test for categorical variables were performed for analyses. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to determine risk factors affecting renal and patient survival. Results The mean age of patients was 53.0 ± 14.7 years old and 1,075 (60.5%) were male. At the time of renal biopsy, 755 (46.0%) and 266 (16.2%) had hypertension and diabetes, respectively. Serum albumin level was 2.7 ± 0.8 g/dL and 871 (49.0%) had nephrotic range of proteinuria. When analyzed by dividing over 65 and under, the hemoglobin and serum albumin level were lower, more patients showed nephrotic ranged proteinuria, and higher prevalence of comorbidities such as hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease in the group over 65 than in the group under 65. Median duration of follow-up was 88.0 (38.0 – 115.1) months. Complete or partial remission rates were 48.5%, 63.8%, and 68.0% at 6 months, 12months after biopsy, and last follow-up, respectively. In Cox proportional hazard regression, high hemoglobin [HR 0.66 (0.47 – 0.93), p=0.017], high serum albumin level [HR 0.41 (0.18 – 0.94), p=0.034], and high estimated GFR by CKD-EPI equation [HR 0.94 (0.91 – 0.96), p&lt;0.001] at biopsy were good predictors for renal outcome, whereas presence of cerebrovascular disease at biopsy [HR 6.45 (1.16 – 35.71), p=0.033] were poor prognostic factors for ESRD. Age 65 and older [HR 3.26 (1.53 – 6.95), p=0.002] and presence of hypertension at biopsy [HR 2.45 (1.09 – 5.54), p=0.031] were significant risk factors for patient survival in multivariate Cox proportional regression analysis. Conclusion High hemoglobin and serum albumin, and good renal function at biopsy were good predictors for renal survival. Older age and hypertension at biopsy were poor prognostic factors for patient survival in iMN patients. Prognostic information of outcomes in this study might be helpful to optimize management in iMN patients.

scholarly journals The association between dietary glycemic and insulin indices with incidence of cardiovascular disease: Tehran lipid and glucose study

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Farshad Teymoori ◽  
Hossein Farhadnejad ◽  
Parvin Mirmiran ◽  
Milad Nazarzadeh ◽  
Fereidoun Azizi
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Glycemic Load ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Daily Energy ◽  
Glycemic Indices ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression

Abstract Background The present study was conducted to investigate the association of dietary insulin index(II), insulin load(IL), glycemic index(GI), and glycemic load(GL) with the risk of cardiovascular disease(CVD). Methods This cohort study was conducted within the framework of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study on 2198 subjects, aged≥19 years old, who were followed-up for a median (IQR) 6.7 (6.1–7.1) years. Dietary GI, GL, II, and IL were calculated using a food frequency questionnaire at the baseline. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate the risk of CVD across quartiles of dietary insulin and glycemic indices. Results Mean ± SD age of the subjects(44.9% men) was 38.3 ± 13.4 years. During a mean of 2406 ± 417 person-years of follow-up, 76(3.5%) new cases of the CVD were ascertained. The mean ± SD of II, IL, GI, and GL of participants were 51.7 ± 6.5, 235.8 ± 90.2, 61.9 ± 7.8, and 202.2 ± 78.1, respectively. After adjusting for the variables of age, sex, smoking, physical activity, daily energy intake, body mass index, diabetes, and hypertension, the hazard ratio (HR) of the highest quartile of dietary GL was 2.77(95%CI:1.00–7.69,P for trend:0.033) compared to the lowest one. Also, each one SD increase in the GL score was associated with a higher risk of CVD[(RR:1.46;CI:1.00–2.16),P-value = 0.047]. However, there was no significant association between the dietary GI, II, and IL and risk for CVD incidence. Conclusions Our results suggested that a high GL diet can increase the incidence of CVD, whereas high dietary II and IL were not associated with the risk of CVD among adults.

scholarly journals Decreased All-Cause and Liver-Related Mortality Risk in HIV/Hepatitis B Virus Coinfection Coinciding With the Introduction of Tenofovir-Containing Combination Antiretroviral Therapy

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Berend J van Welzen ◽  
Colette Smit ◽  
Anders Boyd ◽  
Faydra I Lieveld ◽  
Tania Mudrikova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Hepatitis B Virus ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Combination Antiretroviral Therapy ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
B Virus ◽  
Specific Mortality ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression ◽  
Related Mortality

Abstract Background The development of efficacious combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has led to a dramatic decrease in mortality in HIV-positive patients. Specific data on the impact in HIV/hepatitis B virus (HBV)–coinfected patients are lacking. In this study, all-cause and cause-specific mortality risks stratified per era of diagnosis are investigated. Methods Data were analyzed from HIV/HBV-coinfected patients enrolled in the ATHENA cohort between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2017. Risk for (cause-specific) mortality was calculated using Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, comparing patients diagnosed before 2003 with those diagnosed ≥2003. Risk factors for all-cause and liver-related mortality were also assessed using Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. Results A total of 1301 HIV/HBV-coinfected patients were included (14 882 person-years of follow-up). One-hundred ninety-eight patients (15%) died during follow-up. The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for all-cause mortality in patients diagnosed in or after 2003 was 0.50 (95% CI, 0.35–0.72) relative to patients diagnosed before 2003. Similar risk reduction was observed for liver-related (aHR, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.11–0.75) and AIDS-related mortality (aHR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.22–0.87). Use of a tenofovir-containing regimen was independently associated with a reduced risk of all-cause and liver-related mortality. Prior exposure to didanosine/stavudine was strongly associated with liver-related mortality. Ten percent of the population used only lamivudine as treatment for HBV. Conclusions All-cause, liver-related, and AIDS-related mortality risk in HIV/HBV-coinfected patients has markedly decreased over the years, coinciding with the introduction of tenofovir. Tenofovir-containing regimens, in absence of major contraindications, should be strongly encouraged in this population.

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