Estimating the direct Covid-19 disability-adjusted life years impact on the Malta population for the first full year

Abstract Background Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) combine the impact of morbidity and mortality, allowing for comprehensive comparisons of the population. The aim was to estimate the DALYs due to Covid-19 in Malta (March 2020–21) and investigate its impact in relation to other causes of disease at a population level. Methods Mortality and weekly hospital admission data were used to calculate DALYs, based on the European Burden of Disease Network consensus Covid-19 model. Covid-19 infection duration of 14 days was considered. Sensitivity analyses for different morbidity scenarios, including post-acute consequences were presented. Results An estimated 70,421 people were infected (with and without symptoms) by Covid-19 in Malta (March 2020–1), out of which 1636 required hospitalisation and 331 deaths, contributing to 5478 DALYs. These DALYs positioned Covid-19 as the fourth leading cause of disease in Malta. Mortality contributed to 95% of DALYs, while post-acute consequences contributed to 60% of morbidity. Conclusions Covid-19 over 1 year has impacted substantially the population health in Malta. Post-acute consequences are the leading morbidity factors that require urgent targeted action to ensure timely multidisciplinary care. It is recommended that DALY estimations in 2021 and beyond are calculated to assess the impact of vaccine roll-out and emergence of new variants.

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Estimating the direct Covid-19 disability-adjusted life years impact on the Malta population for the first full year

10.31235/osf.io/8gdrs ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Sarah Cuschieri ◽

Neville Calleja ◽

Brecht Devleesschauwer ◽

Grant Mark Andrew Wyper

Keyword(s):

Population Health ◽

Multidisciplinary Care ◽

Population Level ◽

Health Impact ◽

Sensitivity Analyses ◽

Life Years ◽

Causes Of Disease ◽

One Year ◽

Reported Data ◽

The Impact

BackgroundDisability-adjusted life years (DALYs) combine the impact of morbidity and mortality, allowing for comprehensive comparisons of the population health impact of diseases, injuries, and risk factors. The aim of this paper was to estimate the DALYs due to Covid-19 in Malta (March 2020-21) and investigate its impact in relation to other causes of disease and injury, at a population level. MethodsMortality and weekly hospital admission reported data were used to calculate the DALYs, based on the European Burden of Disease Network consensus Covid-19 model. Covid-19 infection durations of 14 days was considered. Sensitivity analyses for different morbidity scenarios, including post-acute consequences were presented. Estimates were for March 2020-21.ResultsAn estimated 70,421 people were infected (with and without symptoms) by Covid-19 in Malta (March 2020-21), out of which 1,636 required hospitalisation and 331 deaths, contributing to 5,478 DALYs. These DALYs positioned Covid-19 as the fourth leading cause of disease and injury in Malta. Mortality contributed to 95% of DALYs, while post-acute consequences contributed to 60% of morbidity. ConclusionCovid-19 over a period of one year has impacted substantially the population health in Malta. Post-acute consequences are the leading morbidity factors that require urgent targeted action to ensure timely multidisciplinary care. It is recommended that DALY estimations in 2021 and beyond are calculated to assess the impact of vaccine roll-out and emergence of new variants on population health.

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Abstract P116: The Impact of Diet Low in Fruits and Vegetables on Cardiovascular Disease Burden Across 195 Countries in 2015

Circulation ◽

10.1161/circ.135.suppl_1.p116 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 135 (suppl_1) ◽

Author(s):

Patrick J Sur ◽

Ashkan Afshin

Keyword(s):

Cardiovascular Disease ◽

Fruits And Vegetables ◽

Population Level ◽

Optimal Level ◽

Protective Effects ◽

Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽

Country Level ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years ◽

The Impact

Introduction: While cardio-protective effects of fruits and vegetables are well-established, the impact of their suboptimal intake on the CVD burden across nations and levels of development has not been evaluated. Objective: To systematically quantify the burden of CVD attributable to low intake of fruits and low intake of vegetables in 195 countries by age, sex, country, and development status in 2015. Methods: We obtained data on consumption of fruits and vegetables from nationally or subnationally representative nutrition surveys and data on their national availability from the UN FAO. Etiologic effect sizes of fruits and vegetables on CVD endpoints were obtained from meta- analyses of prospective cohort studies. The optimal level of intakes for each was determined based on the levels associated with lowest risk of mortality in prospective observational studies. A comparative risk assessment analysis was conducted to quantify the proportion of disability- adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to low intake of each. The variation of this burden was further evaluated across different levels of our newly developed socio-demographic index (SDI). Results: In 2015, low intake of fruits accounted for 57.3 (95% UI: 37.1- 78.4) million DALYs due to CVD globally (41.5% from IHD and 58.5% from stroke). Low intake of vegetable caused 44.6 (23.6- 68.8) million CVD DALYs (67.3% IHD and 32.7% stroke). The highest burden of CVD attributable to low intake of fruits and vegetables was seen in the middle and low-middle SDI quintiles (17.2 and 14.3% of total DALYs), while the lowest burden for each was seen in high and high-middle SDI quintiles (12.7 and 11.2%). At the country level, the attributable CVD burden ranged from 5.1% of total DALYs (Rwanda) to 23.2% (Bangladesh) for low intake of fruit and from 5.9% (North Korea) to 19.4% (Mongolia) for low intake of vegetable. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that population inventions to increase consumption of fruits and vegetables at population level could save millions of life years globally. Figure. Age-standardized proportion of disability-adjusted life years attributable to low intake of fruits (A) and vegetables (B) from cardiovascular disease among adults (> 25y) in 2015.

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How do world and European standard populations impact burden of disease studies? A case study of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in Scotland

Archives of Public Health ◽

10.1186/s13690-019-0383-8 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 78 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Grant M. A. Wyper ◽

Ian Grant ◽

Eilidh Fletcher ◽

Gerry McCartney ◽

Colin Fischbacher ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Burden Of Disease ◽

Rank Order ◽

Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽

European Standard ◽

Standard Population ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years ◽

European Standard Population ◽

Causes Of Disease ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) are an established method for quantifying population health needs and guiding prioritisation decisions. Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates aim to ensure comparability between countries and over time by using age-standardised rates (ASR) to account for differences in the age structure of different populations. Different standard populations are used for this purpose but it is not widely appreciated that the choice of standard may affect not only the resulting rates but also the rankings of causes of DALYs. We aimed to evaluate the impact of the choice of standard, using the example of Scotland. Methods DALY estimates were derived from the 2016 Scottish Burden of Disease (SBoD) study for an abridged list of 68 causes of disease/injury, representing a three-year annual average across 2014–16. Crude DALY rates were calculated using Scottish national population estimates. DALY ASRs standardised using the GBD World Standard Population (GBD WSP) were compared to those using the 2013 European Standard Population (ESP2013). Differences in ASR and in rank order within the cause list were summarised for all-cause and for each individual cause. Results The ranking of causes by DALYs were similar using crude rates or ASR (ESP2013). All-cause DALY rates using ASR (GBD WSP) were around 26% lower. Overall 58 out of 68 causes had a lower ASR using GBD WSP compared with ESP2013, with the largest falls occurring for leading causes of mortality observed in older ages. Gains in ASR were much smaller in absolute scale and largely affected causes that operated early in life. These differences were associated with a substantial change to the ranking of causes when GBD WSP was used compared with ESP2013. Conclusion Disease rankings based on DALY ASRs are strongly influenced by the choice of standard population. While GBD WSP offers international comparability, within-country analyses based on DALY ASRs should reflect local age structures. For European countries, including Scotland, ESP2013 may better guide local priority setting by avoiding large disparities occurring between crude and age-standardised results sets, which could potentially confuse non-technical audiences.

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How do World and European Standard Populations impact Burden of Disease studies? A case study of Disability-Adjusted Life Years in Scotland

10.1101/19008102 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Grant MA Wyper ◽

Ian Grant ◽

Eilidh Fletcher ◽

Gerry McCartney ◽

Colin Fischbacher ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Burden Of Disease ◽

Rank Order ◽

Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽

European Standard ◽

Standard Population ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years ◽

European Standard Population ◽

Causes Of Disease ◽

The Impact

AbstractBackgroundDisability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) are an established method for quantifying population health needs and guiding prioritisation decisions. Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates aim to ensure comparability between countries and over time by using age-standardised rates (ASR) to account for differences in the age structure of different populations. Different standard populations are used for this purpose but it is not widely appreciated that the choice of standard may affect not only the resulting rates but also the rankings of causes of DALYs. We aimed to evaluate the impact of the choice of standard, using the example of Scotland.MethodsDALY estimates were derived from the 2016 Scottish Burden of Disease (SBOD) study for an abridged list of 68 causes of disease/injury, representing a three-year annual average across 2014-16. Crude DALY rates were calculated using Scottish national population estimates. DALY ASRs standardised using the GBD World Standard Population (GBD WSP) were compared to those using the 2013 European Standard Population (ESP2013). Differences in ASR and in rank order within the cause list were summarised across all-causes and for each individual cause.ResultsThe ranking of causes by DALYs were similar using crude rates or ASR (ESP2013). As expected, all-cause DALY rates using ASR (GBD WSP) were around 26% lower. Overall 58 out of 68 causes had a lower ASR using GBD WSP compared with ESP2013, with the largest falls occurring for leading causes of mortality observed in older ages. Gains in ASR were much smaller in scale and largely affected causes that operated early in life. These differences were associated with a substantial change to the ranking of causes when GBD WSP was used compared with ESP2013.ConclusionDisease rankings based on DALY ASRs are strongly influenced by the choice of standard population. While GBD WSP offers international comparability, within-country analyses based on DALY ASRs should reflect local age structures. For European countries including Scotland, ESP2013 may better guide local priority setting.

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Assessing antiretroviral therapy success in HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality trends in Brazil, 1990–2017: an interrupted time series study

International Journal of STD & AIDS ◽

10.1177/0956462420952989 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 095646242095298

Author(s):

Augusto Cesar Lara de Sousa ◽

Tatiana de Araujo Eleuterio ◽

José Victor Afonso Coutinho ◽

Raphael Mendonça Guimarães

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Antiretroviral Therapy ◽

Burden Of Disease ◽

Interrupted Time Series ◽

People Living With Hiv ◽

Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years ◽

The Impact ◽

Hiv Aids

To describe the trends of HIV/AIDS metrics related to the burden of disease for Brazil between 1990 and 2017 we conducted a timeseries analysis for HIV/AIDS indicators by extracting data from the Global Burden of Disease study. We calculated traditional prevalence, incidence and mortality rates, the number of years lost by HIV-related deaths (YLL) and disability (YLD), and disability-adjusted life years (DALY). We estimated time series models and assessed the impact of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) on the same indicators. In the set of disability-adjusted life years (DALY), the highest weight of its magnitude was due to YLL. There was a decline, especially after 1996, of DALY, mortality and YLL for HIV/AIDS. However, YLD, incidence, and prevalence increased over the same period. Also, the analysis of interrupted time series showed that the introduction of HAART into health policy had a significant impact on indicators, especially for DALY and YLL. We need to assess the quality of life of people living with HIV, especially among older adults. In addition, we need to focus on primary prevention, emphasizing methods to avoid infection and public policies should reflect this.

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Disability-adjusted Life Years for respiratory syncytial virus in children under 2 years

10.21203/rs.3.rs-20260/v3 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

jefferson buendia ◽

Fernando Polack ◽

Juana Patricia Sanchez Villamil

Keyword(s):

Respiratory Syncytial Virus ◽

Statistical Parameter ◽

Epidemiological Surveillance ◽

Years Of Life Lost ◽

Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years ◽

Rsv Infection ◽

Syncytial Virus ◽

The Impact

Abstract BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus infection is the leading cause of bronchiolitis in Colombia. There is growing evidence about the impact of Respiratory syncytial virus on society in terms of years of life lost due to this condition. The objective of the present study is to determine the Disability-Adjusted Life Years for respiratory syncytial virus in children under 2 years in ColombiaMETHODS: Data from the national epidemiological surveillance system were used to estimate DALYs, calculated from the sum of years of life lost and years lived with disability due to RSV infection in Colombia. A bootstrapped method with 10000 iterations was used to estimate each statistical parameter using the package DALY calculator in R. RESULTS: In 2019, 260 873 years of life (CI95% 208 180- 347 023) were lost due to RSV bronchiolitis in Colombian children under 2 years. The estimated rate was 20 DALYs / 1000 person-year (95% CI 16 – 27).CONCLUSION: This is the first report estimating the impact of RSV bronchiolitis morbidity and mortality in Colombia. The findings of the present study suggest that the actual burden and cost of bronchiolitis due to RSV is high. Prevention strategies, such as RSV vaccination, to reduce morbidity associated with RSV infection should be encouraged in our country.

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Prediction of disability-adjusted life years for diseases due to low fruit intake in 2017–2040 in Japan

Public Health Nutrition ◽

10.1017/s1368980020004541 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 1-11

Author(s):

Daisuke Yoneoka ◽

Shuhei Nomura ◽

Shiori Tanaka ◽

Aya Ishizuka ◽

Ueda Peter ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Kidney Diseases ◽

Moving Average ◽

Current Trend ◽

Population Level ◽

Fruit Intake ◽

Reference Scenario ◽

Future Scenarios ◽

Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years

Abstract Objective: The current study aimed to predict disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate in Japan through 2040 with plausible future scenarios of fruit intake for neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and diabetes and kidney diseases (DKD). Design: Data from National Health and Nutrition Surveys and the Global Burden of Diseases study in 2017 were used. We developed an autoregressive integrated moving average model with four future scenarios. Reference scenario maintains the current trend. Best scenario assumes that the goal defined in Health Japan 21 is achieved in 2023 and is kept constant afterwards. Moderate scenario assumes that the goal is achieved in 2040. Constant scenario applies the same proportion of 2016 for the period between 2017 and 2040. Setting: DALY rates in Japan were predicted for the period between 2017 and 2040. Participants: Population aged more than than 20 years old. Results: In our reference forecast, the DALY rates in all-ages group were projected to be stable for CVD and continue increasing for neoplasms and DKD. Age group-specific DALY rates for these three disease groups were forecasted to decrease, with some exceptions. Among men aged 20–49 years, DALY attributable to CVD differed substantially between the scenarios, implying that there is a significant potential for reducing the burden of CVD by increasing fruit intake at the population level. Conclusions: Our scenario analysis shows that higher fruit intake is associated with lower disease burden in Japan. Further research is required to assess which policies and interventions can be used to achieve an increase in fruit intake as modelled in the scenarios of the current study.

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Impact of COVID-19 Attributable Deaths on Longevity, Premature Mortality and DALY: Estimates of USA, Italy, Sweden and Germany

10.1101/2020.07.06.20147009 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Sanjay K Mohanty ◽

Manisha Dubey ◽

Udaya S Mishra ◽

Umakanta Sahoo

Keyword(s):

Life Expectancy ◽

Premature Mortality ◽

Actual Number ◽

Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years ◽

Control And Prevention ◽

The Usa ◽

The Impact ◽

United Nation

AbstractIn a short span of four months, the COVID-19 pandemic has added over 0.4 million deaths worldwide, which are untimely, premature and unwarranted. The USA, Italy, Germany and Sweden are four worst affected countries, accounting to over 40% of COVID-19 deaths globally. The main objective of this study is to examine the impact of COVID-19 attributable deaths on longevity, years of potential life lost (YPLL) and disability adjusted life years (DALY) in USA, Italy, Germany and Sweden. Data from United Nation Population Projection, Statista and centre for disease control and prevention were used in the analyses. Life expectancy, YPLL and DALY were estimated under four scenarios; no COVID-19 deaths, actual number of COVID-19 death as of 22nd May, 2020 and anticipating COVID-19 death share of 6% and 10% respectively. The COVID-19 attributable deaths have lowered the life expectancy by 0.4 years each in USA and Sweden, 0.5 years in Italy and 0.1 years in Germany. The loss of YPLL was 1.5, 0.5, 0.1 and 0.5 million in USA, Italy, Germany and Sweden respectively. The DALY (per 1000 population) due to COVID-19 was 4 in USA, 6 in Italy, 1 each in Germany and Sweden. Compression in life expectancy and increase in YPLL and DALY may intensify further if death continues to soar. COVID-19 has a marked impact on mortality. Reduction in longevity premature mortality and loss of DALY is higher among elderly.

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Estimation of economic burden of COVID-19 using Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and Productivity Losses in Kerala state, India

10.21203/rs.3.rs-118146/v2 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Denny John ◽

Narassima MS ◽

Jaideep C Menon ◽

Guru Rajesh Jammy

Keyword(s):

Global Economy ◽

Age Groups ◽

Premature Mortality ◽

Baseline Scenario ◽

Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years ◽

Males And Females ◽

Kerala State ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a huge impact on the global economy and stressed the health care systems worldwide. Measuring the burden of disease on health and economy is essential for system preparedness by way of allocation of funds and human resources.Methods: The present study estimates Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), Years of Potential Productive Life Lost (YPPLL) and Cost of Productivity Lost (CPL) due to premature mortality and absenteeism, secondary to COVID-19 in Kerala state, India. The impact of disease on various age-gender cohorts has been analyzed. Sensitivity Analysis has been conducted by adjusting six variables with a total of 21 scenarios. Results: Severity of infection and mortality were higher among older sub-group of patients, and male were more susceptible than female in most of the age groups. DALY for the baseline scenario was 15,924.24 and 8,669.32 for males and females respectively. The CPL due to premature mortality was 26,80,36,179 and 42,510,946 for males and females respectively. Conclusion: People aged more than 50 were disproportionately affected by the disease, with presence of comorbidities further raising vulnerability.

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