Exploring BIS credit-to-GDP gap critiques: the Swiss case

AbstractA growing body of literature has highlighted two important caveats to the credit-to-GDP gap as advocated by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). The first relates to the approach used to normalise credit (i.e. dividing nominal credit by GDP). In this regard, critics have argued that GDP movements, that may or may not be relevant, run the risk of affecting a normalised measure of credit. The second relates to the use of the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter to estimate the gap’s trend component. In this regard, critics have emphasised several measurement problems associated with using the HP filter. In this paper, we assess the relevance of these critiques for Switzerland. Our findings show that despite its drawbacks, the BIS gap is a reliable measure of excess credit in Switzerland. Alternatives do not provide clear advantages, rather they are considerably more complex to estimate and come with their own set of pitfalls. For policymaking purposes, the BIS gap’s signal should be complemented with narratives based on a broader set of credit metrics to ensure that an all-encompassing risk assessment is made.

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Security Threat Management in Prison: Revalidation and Revision of the Inmate Risk Assessment for Segregation Placement

The Prison Journal ◽

10.1177/00328855211069150 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 003288552110691

Author(s):

Ryan M. Labrecque

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Case Management ◽

Policy Implications ◽

Security Threat ◽

Institutional Misconduct ◽

Alternative Approach ◽

Growing Body ◽

Threat Management ◽

Institutional Order ◽

Management Services

Prison officials often rely on restrictive housing to promote institutional safety and security. However, a growing body of research indicates this type of confinement has little impact on inmate behavior or institutional order. An alternative approach involves providing the most dangerous and disruptive inmates with increased case management services and other proactive programmatic opportunities. The success of this strategy requires an ability to prospectively and accurately identify the most problematic inmates. The results of this study indicate that Risk Assessment for Segregation Placement (RASP) and its revised Oregon version (RASP-OR) are valid predictors of segregation placement and institutional misconduct. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.

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Finding Colour in Conformity Part II—Reflections on Structured Professional Judgement and Cross-Cultural Risk Assessment

International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology ◽

10.1177/0306624x20928025 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 65 (1) ◽

pp. 92-99

Author(s):

Stephane M. Shepherd ◽

Benjamin L. Spivak

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Risk Assessment ◽

Cross Cultural ◽

The Past ◽

Specific Risk ◽

Growing Body ◽

Current Risk ◽

Professional Judgement

There has been an increasing interest in cross-cultural risk assessment over the past 5 years. Much of this has been driven by concerns that particular risk instruments may be biased against, or ill-suited to, non-White offending populations. A growing body of work has asserted that unique cultural-specific risk factors and experiences may not be adequately considered within current risk assessment frameworks which have led to calls to culturally alter/remodel risk instruments. While recognising the importance of generalizable risk instruments, this article outlines a number of realities that cross-cultural risk assessment researchers must contend with before embarking on projects to alter instruments. With specific regard to structured professional judgement risk instruments, the article notes that efforts to culturally amend instruments, could paradoxically reduce accuracy and increase bias.

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Optimal escape theory predicts escape behaviors beyond flight initiation distance: risk assessment and escape by striped plateau lizards Sceloporus virgatus

Current Zoology ◽

10.1093/czoolo/55.2.123 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 55 (2) ◽

pp. 123-131 ◽

Cited By ~ 32

Author(s):

William E. Cooper

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Risk Assessment ◽

Predation Risk ◽

Flight Initiation Distance ◽

Risk Levels ◽

Escape Theory ◽

Growing Body ◽

Sceloporus Virgatus ◽

Escape Behaviors ◽

Flight Initiation

Abstract Escape theory predicts that flight initiation distance (FID = distance between predator and prey when escape begins) is longer when risk is greater and shorter when escape is more costly. A few tests suggest that escape theory applies to distance fled. Escape models have not addressed stochastic variables, such as probability of fleeing and of entering refuge, but their economic logic might be applicable. Experiments on several risk factors in the lizard Sceloporus virgatus confirmed all predictions for the above escape variables. FID was greater when approach was faster and more direct, for lizards on ground than on trees, for lizards rarely exposed to humans, for the second of two approaches, and when the predator turned toward lizards rather than away. Lizards fled further during rapid and second consecutive approaches. They were more likely to flee when approached directly, when a predator turned toward them, and during second approaches. They were more likely to enter refuge when approached rapidly. A novel finding is that perch height in trees was unrelated to FID because lizards escaped by moving out of sight, then moving up or down unpredictably. These findings add to a growing body of evidence supporting predictions of escape theory for FID and distance fled. They show that two probabilistic aspects of escape are predictable based on relative predation risk levels. Because individuals differ in boldness, the assessed optimal FID and threshold risks for fleeing and entering refuge are exceeded for an increasing proportion of individuals as risk increases.

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