Demand and Demand Forecast

Keyword(s):  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 1791-1804
Author(s):  
Mengli Li ◽  
Xumei Zhang

Recently, the showroom model has developed fast for allowing consumers to evaluate a product offline and then buy it online. This paper aims at exploring the optimal information acquisition strategy and its incentive contracts in an e-commerce supply chain with two competing e-tailers and an offline showroom. Based on signaling game theory, we build a mathematical model by considering the impact of experience service and competition intensity on consumers’ demand. We find that, on the one hand, information acquisition promotes supply chain members to obtain demand information directly or indirectly, which leads to forecast revenue. On the other hand, information acquisition promotes supply chain members to distort optimal decisions, which results in signal cost. The optimal information acquisition strategy depends on the joint impact of forecast revenue, signal cost and demand forecast cost. Notably, in some conditions, the offline showroom will not acquire demand information even when its cost is equal to zero. We also design two different information acquisition incentive contracts to obtain Pareto improvement for all supply chain members.


Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 2151
Author(s):  
Feras Alasali ◽  
Husam Foudeh ◽  
Esraa Mousa Ali ◽  
Khaled Nusair ◽  
William Holderbaum

More and more households are using renewable energy sources, and this will continue as the world moves towards a clean energy future and new patterns in demands for electricity. This creates significant novel challenges for Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) such as volatile net demand behavior and predicting Low Voltage (LV) demand. There is a lack of understanding of modern LV networks’ demand and renewable energy sources behavior. This article starts with an investigation into the unique characteristics of householder demand behavior in Jordan, connected to Photovoltaics (PV) systems. Previous studies have focused mostly on forecasting LV level demand without considering renewable energy sources, disaggregation demand and the weather conditions at the LV level. In this study, we provide detailed LV demand analysis and a variety of forecasting methods in terms of a probabilistic, new optimization learning algorithm called the Golden Ratio Optimization Method (GROM) for an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for rolling and point forecasting. Short-term forecasting models have been designed and developed to generate future scenarios for different disaggregation demand levels from households, small cities, net demands and PV system output. The results show that the volatile behavior of LV networks connected to the PV system creates substantial forecasting challenges. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the ANN-GROM model improved by 41.2% for household demand forecast compared to the traditional ANN model.


Author(s):  
Shunhua Bai ◽  
Junfeng Jiao

Travel demand forecast plays an important role in transportation planning. Classic models often predict people’s travel behavior based on the physical built environment in a linear fashion. Many scholars have tried to understand built environments’ predictive power on people’s travel behavior using big-data methods. However, few empirical studies have discussed how the impact might vary across time and space. To fill this research gap, this study used 2019 anonymous smartphone GPS data and built a long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network (RNN) to predict the daily travel demand to six destinations in Austin, Texas: downtown, the university, the airport, an inner-ring point-of-interest (POI) cluster, a suburban POI cluster, and an urban-fringe POI cluster. By comparing the prediction results, we found that: the model underestimated the traffic surge for the university in the fall semester and overestimated the demand for downtown on non-working days; the prediction accuracy for POI clusters was negatively related to their adjacency to downtown; and different POI clusters had cases of under- or overestimation on different occasions. This study reveals that the impact of destination attributes on people’s travel demand can vary across time and space because of their heterogeneous nature. Future research on travel behavior and built environment modeling should incorporate the temporal inconsistency to achieve better prediction accuracy.


2012 ◽  
Vol 621 ◽  
pp. 352-355
Author(s):  
Zhong Fu Tan ◽  
Shu Xiang Wang ◽  
Chen Zhang ◽  
Li Qiong Lin ◽  
Yin Hui Zhao

This paper analyses multi influencing factors of energy demand, using energy demand forecast regression model reveals inner relations between each factor and energy demand. Establish simulation model of the relation between GDP, energy intense and energy demand. Under the change in population, urbanization and energy efficiency, this paper gives analysis model of energy demand change.


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