Abstract. Thwaites Glacier (TG), West Antarctica, has experienced rapid,
potentially irreversible grounding line retreat and mass loss in response to
enhanced ice shelf melting. Results from recent numerical models suggest a
large spread in the evolution of the glacier in the coming decades to a
century. It is therefore important to investigate how different
approximations of the ice stress balance, parameterizations of basal
friction and ice shelf melt parameterizations may affect projections. Here,
we simulate the evolution of TG using ice sheet models of varying levels of
complexity, different basal friction laws and ice shelf melt to quantify
their effect on the projections. We find that the grounding line retreat and
its sensitivity to ice shelf melt are enhanced when a full-Stokes model is
used, a Budd friction is used and ice shelf melt is applied on partially
floating elements. Initial conditions also impact the model results. Yet, all
simulations suggest a rapid, sustained retreat of the glacier along the same
preferred pathway. The fastest retreat rate occurs on the eastern side of the
glacier, and the slowest retreat occurs across a subglacial ridge on the
western side. All the simulations indicate that TG will undergo an
accelerated retreat once the glacier retreats past the western subglacial
ridge. Combining all the simulations, we find that the uncertainty of the
projections is small in the first 30 years, with a cumulative contribution to
sea level rise of 5 mm, similar to the current rate. After 30 years, the
contribution to sea level depends on the model configurations, with
differences up to 300 % over the next 100 years, ranging from 14 to 42 mm.